In and Around North Korea: 17 - 23 January 2009

• South Korea's deputy chief nuclear envoy, Hwang Joon-kook, said Tuesday (20 Jan) that North Korea maintains its hard-line position on denuclearization as he returned from a rare trip to Pyongyang. He stated his discussions with North Korean officials in Pyongyang were confined to technical aspects and that he was limited in whom he could meet. Hwang added that he also visited the North's main nuclear site in Yongbyon for discussions on discarding unused fuel rods stored at the facilities. Hwang led a team of South Korean officials and civilian nuclear experts on a fact-finding mission to decide whether to buy the fresh rods. His team arrived in Pyongyang last Thursday (15 Jan) and returned to Seoul on Tuesday (20 Jan).

• Selig Harrison, a scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars, a policy institute in Washington D.C., said a senior North Korean officials had told him this week (week of 11 – 17 Jan) that 30.8 kg (68 pounds) of plutonium their government had listed as part of a preliminary disarmament agreement had been "weaponised" -- incorporated into warheads or other arms. The North Korean claims could not be verified, Harrison said, but they underscored a hardening of the state's position even as it made offers of cooperation to Obama. Harrison also stated that Pyongyang officials were vague about what weaponisation meant, but it appeared most likely the plutonium would be fitted in missile warheads.

• North Korea said Saturday (17 Jan) its priority is to build up its "nuclear deterrent force" to protect itself and not to normalize diplomatic ties with the United States. The cryptic statement was the first to lay out the communist nation's nuclear stance since the last round of international disarmament talks stalled in Dec 08. North Korea "can live without normalizing the relations with the U.S., but not without nuclear deterrent," a foreign ministry statement carried by the state-run Korean Central News Agency said. It added that the North plans to "boost the nuclear deterrent in every way to more firmly defend the security of our nation." On Tuesday (20 Jan), however, the Japan-based Choson Sinbo – considered a mouthpiece of Pyongyang – said in a story posted on its Web site hours before President Obama's inauguration that North Korea is willing to give up its nuclear weapons if President Barack Obama agrees to conditions imposed by the communist regime, including establishing formal diplomatic relations between the two countries. Choson Sinbo also noted that the North was waiting to see what position the new president would take on the nuclear standoff.

• Russia does not acknowledge North Korea as a nuclear power and will continue working with regional countries to persuade Pyongyang to give up its nuclear drive, Moscow's envoy said Wednesday (21 Jan). Glev Ivashendsov, Russian ambassador to South Korea, said regional stability is "crucial to Russia's economic development," as Moscow is pushing for natural resources development in Siberia and the Far East.

• Russia will complete later in January its fuel shipments to North Korea under international agreements, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Friday. Russia is to supply a total of 200,000 metric tons of fuel to North Korea as part of a denuclearization deal. Moscow hopes that in exchange for heating oil deliveries Pyongyang will complete the phasing out of its Yongbyon nuclear complex.

• The new Barack Obama administration will get rid of North Korea's nuclear weapons programs "through tough and direct diplomacy," the White House said Wednesday (21 Jan). The administration plans to "use tough diplomacy – backed by real incentives and real pressures – to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and to eliminate fully and verifiably North Korea's nuclear weapons program," according to a foreign policy agenda posted on the White House Web site. The Web posting comes one day after Obama said in his swearing-in ceremony Tuesday that "with old friends and former foes, we will work tirelessly to lessen the nuclear threat."

• A spokesman of the North Korean People's Army General Staff issued a statement on Saturday (17 Jan) announcing that because the Lee Myung-bak government of South Korea has continued to carry out a hostile policy toward North Korea, North Korea will conduct "all-out confrontation" against the South. Subsequent to North Korea’s announcement of five measures on 01 Dec 08 regarding North-South relations, including stopping tourism in Kaesong, the two countries' relations met with another "cold weather" at the beginning of the New Year. The situation on the Korean Peninsula has drawn the widespread attention of global public opinion.

• In the wake of a 17 Jan North Korean People's Army General Staff spokesman's statement on inter-Korean relations, the North Korean media have given extensive coverage to domestic reaction. While the North Korean media typically follow up major pronouncements or events by carrying domestic reaction, the reaction to the latest statement is worth noting due to the aggressive and graphic language not often observed in the North Korean media.

• Korean Central Broadcasting Station (KCBS) reported on 17 Jan that Kim Jong Il gave on-the-spot guidance to Mt Yongak Recreation Ground which has wonderfully been built as a recreation and resting place for the people. Accompanying him were Comrade Chang So'ng-t'aek, department director of the WPK Central Committee, and Comrades Chu Kyu-ch'ang and Ri Chae-il, first vice department directors of the WPK Central Committee, and KPA Generals Comrades Hyo'n Ch'o'l-hae and Ri Myo'ng-su.

• KCBS reported on 17 Jan that Kim Jong Il inspected a subunit under KPA Unit 2752 honored with the title of O Chung-hu'p Seventh Regiment. He acquainted himself with the unit's performance of its duty and then watched the soldiers in training. He was accompanied by KPA Generals Comrades Hyo'n Ch'o'l-hae and Ri Myo'ng-su and commanding personnel of the army.

• Wang Jiarui, head of the CPC International Liaison Department is visiting North Korea in a trip coinciding with the inauguration of the new US administration. Wang met with Kim Jong-il on 23 Jan, the North Korean Cabinet Premier Kim Yong Il met on 22 Jan, and with Choe Thae Bok, alternate member of the Political Bureau and secretary of the central committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea on 21 Jan. Wang meeting with Kim was Kim’s first reported appearance before foreign media since he reportedly suffered a stroke in Aug 08.

• A Japanese NGO involved in human rights issues concerning North Korea revealed that since last fall some senior North Korean officials have begun calling Kim Cho'ng-nam, 37, the eldest son of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, 66, "Morning Star General." If the honorific "General" is being used, it is directly connected to the succession issue. On the other hand, a South Korean news agency reported on 15 January that Kim Jong Il's third son, Kim Cho'ng-un, 25, had been named the successor. Some view this as evidence that an information war between the parties backing the respective sons is heating up. Triggered by Kim Jong Il's health problems, are maneuverings about the North Korean succession problem really picking up?

• North Korea's trade with China has shown steady growth in recent years, surpassing US$2 billion last year, while its deficit has grown in tandem, customs officials in Beijing said Monday (19 Jan). Cumulative trade volume from 2003-2007 reached $7.6 billion, with North Korean exports valued at $2.5 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $2.6 billion on the North Korean side. Bilateral trade continued to grow from $1.6 billion in 2005 to $2.1 billion in the January-October period in 2008, with data on the final two months yet to be collected.

• More North Koreans are using a cellular phone service provided by an Egyptian company starting Dec 08, according to the Radio Free Asia (RFA) Tuesday (20 Jan). As people in Pyongyang and the provinces begin to use the phones, North Korean authorities are strengthening controls over the service in a bid to prevent information leakage, the station reported.

• Sources revealed to Yomiuri Shimbun on 20 Jan that North Korea is planning to make Wihwa Island on the Yalu River on the PRC-NK border a free trade zone, where Chinese people can travel to visa free. Wihwa Island is in vicinity of Sinuiju. The plan seems to reflect North Korea’s intention to enhance border trade with China to bring in foodstuffs and other goods. Also, moves such as this to beef up the PRC-NK trade relations are seen as North Korea’s attempt to put the brakes on the ROK's Lee Myung-bak administration, which advocates a review of the nation's conciliatory policy toward North Korea.

• The most recent US National Intelligence Council report (titled Strategic Implications of Global Health, dated December 2008) stated chronic food shortages will considerably reduce North Korea's pool of military recruits in the coming years, with nearly a quarter of young adults unfit for service due to malnutrition-related mental disabilities. The famine of the 1990s has caused severe cognitive deficiencies among young North Koreans. According to the report, the rate of disqualification will peak in the 2009-2013 period, during which an estimated 17-29 percent of potential North Korean recruits born during the 1990s famine will reach military age.

• The U.S. Treasury Department on Friday (16 Jan) sanctioned a married couple in Taiwan, Alex H.T. Tsai and his wife, Lu-Chi Tsai Su, and two firms they run, Global Interface Company Inc and Trans Merits Co. Ltd., for illicit sales to a North Korean firm, Korea Mining Development Trading Corporation, accused of proliferating weapons of mass destruction to Syria and Iran in 2008. A Treasury spokesman declined to identify what materials and equipment the firms sold to North Korea.

• South Korea's unification minister-designate, Hyun In-taek, said Monday (19 Jan) he will work more closely with the United States in dealing with North Korea, as he prepares to take over amid the worst inter-Korean relations in a decade. Hyun, a university professor named as Seoul's top policymaker on Pyongyang, sounded tough in line with President Lee Myung-bak's hard-line stance toward the communist state, a departure from his moderate predecessor who focused on persuading North Korea to engage in talks. Unlike major North Korea experts, Hyun prioritizes South Korea's alliance with the U.S. over reconciliation with North Korea and advocates international consensus as the starting point in dealing with Pyongyang. Critics say his approach neglects the unique nature of the communist state that they believe is a key to drawing Pyongyang's compromises.

• Kim Ki-mun, head of the Korea Federation of Small and Medium Business, said Sunday (18 Jan) that the global economic slowdown has forced local companies to cut jobs for North Korean workers at the Kaesong Industrial Complex. Kim stated that companies operating in the complex have been hit hard by falling orders from large conglomerates and tightened border controls that went into effect Dec. 1 and that South Korean companies have started asking workers to take un-paid leave in an effort to save costs.The carrot-and-stick approach is an old tactic to induce good behavior by offering a combination of rewards and punishment. Jeju Special Self-Governing Province, known as a tangerine-producing area, chose the fruit over a stick in a bid to help warm icy inter-Korean relations. This month, it sent 300 metric tons of tangerines and 1,000 tons of carrots to the famine-hit communist state.

• According to an interview filed by Democratic Voice of Burma correspondent Naw Say Phaw, the State Peace and Development Council is building an armament factory with the assistance of North Korean technicians.

• South Korean and Japanese foreign ministers will hold talks here next month to follow up on the latest summit agreement by their leaders, a Seoul government official said Friday (16 Jan). "Japanese Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone suggested a two-day trip to South Korea around Feb. 11 for a meeting with Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan," a foreign ministry official said, asking not to be named. "The two sides are in consultations to set a date." The foreign ministers will discuss ways to implement the summit agreement reached earlier between President Lee Myung-bak and his Japanese counterpart Taro Aso.

• South Korea's Cabinet on Tuesday (20 Jan) approved a government plan to send a naval ship and forces to waters off Somalia to protect international commercial vessels from pirates operating off the coast of the East African nation, government officials said. Following the Cabinet approval, the Lee administration will present a motion to a special parliamentary session scheduled for February to allow the naval operation until the end of this year, they noted.

• As millions gathered around Capitol Hill to celebrate the inauguration of the US President Barack Obama, North Korea chose to exercise peace in the sea frontier it had days earlier threatened to shatter. Its troops stayed low-key, South Korean soldiers on an elevated vigil said, and the waters that separate the two Koreas in the west remained calm despite earlier threats by the North to defeat any opposition to its claim over a disputed West Sea (Yellow Sea) border.

• Don Oberdorfer, a leading expert on North and South Korea, says there are no clear signs yet that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is too ill to run the country. "We would know if he were in such a state that he could not function and he couldn't give any instructions," Oberdorfer said. "Things like that trickle out of the North. That's not been the case." He said he believes the Obama administration will step up diplomacy on North Korea but doubts there will be major initiatives in the short term. "The administration has got lots of things on its plate" and this "is not an issue where you can get any early returns. I remain skeptical it's going to be a major item."