North and South Korean Naval Vessels Clash off the West Coast

On 10 November, shortly after 11: 30 AM (KST), a North Korean naval vessel and a South Korean naval vessel exchanged gun-fire 1.6 miles south of the disputed Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea (Yellow Sea).  According to the South Korean media reports, the incident started by the South Korean naval vessel firing warning shots at the North's vessel for crossing the NLL after the North Korean vessel ignored numerous South Korean warnings for it to return north of the NLL.  The North Korean vessel apparently responded to the warning shots by firing aimed shots directly at a South Korean vessel, to which the South Korean Navy responded in kind.

This clash- deemed accidental by South Korea's prime minister, whch lasted roughly a minute and ended when the North's vessel withdrew north of the NLL, was the first time the two navies exchanged gun-fire in seven years.

South Korean Military details the Clash

• A South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff official specified that at 11:27 AM (KST), a North Korean patrol ship crossed the NLL in an area east of the Taech'o'ng Island in the West Sea.  South Korea issued multiple warning communications followed by warning shots. The Northern ship then fired "directly aimed shots" at a South Korean vessel, which returned fire and undertook "evicting" the North's vessel. (KBS-1 TV) 

• Officials added that about 15 of 50 rounds fired by the North landed on the South Korean boat, which retaliated with roughly 200 rounds. The ships were a little over three kilometers apart when they exchanged fire. (Yonhap)

South Korean Government Calls For Calm Response 

• President Lee Myung-bak convened an emergency meeting of security-related ministers after learning of the clash and "instructed the military to react decisively, yet calmly to make sure the situation does not further deteriorate," a senior secretary's statement said. (Yonhap)

• The prime minister said that "it was an accidental clash, so we ask the people to have confidence in our military and government and carry on with their daily lives as usual." (Yonhap) 

• The country will continue exchanges with North Korea as normal, keeping its border open to workers traveling to the North and proceeding with planned humanitarian aid, officials said. (Yonhap)

• "With regard to this incident, there are no restrictive measures, such as minimizing the number of visitors to the North and other artificial control measures, under consideration," a Unification Ministry spokesman said. (Yonhap)

• The Unification Ministry did, however, issue guidelines for those traveling North to exercise special caution and some trips, such as that of UNESCO, were voluntarily canceled or postponed. 

North Korea Reports on Clash, Seeks Apology 

A Korean People's Army Supreme Command communique carried the same day by central radio reported that a patrol boat had been dispatched in routine guard duty to check an unidentified object in North Korean waters and while the ship was returning after having identified the object, a "group" of South Korean ships "chased" the Northern craft and opened fire.

The communique added that the North's ship delivered a "counter-strike," after which the South Korean vessels withdrew.  Foreign media have pointed out that the communique sought an apology for the incident.  It also went on to call for preventing a recurrence.

South Korean Expert Views Divergent

• Yoo Ho-yeol, a North Korea Professor at Korea University said, “It appears to be a move to raise tension ahead of Obama’s visit to South Korea.  North Koreans believe tension helps them strengthen their bargaining power.” (Yonhap)

• Kim Yong-hyun, Professor of Dongguk University said, “I believe North Korea is trying to show Obama the volatility of the peninsula. North Korea has demanded a peace pact be signed with the US to replace the truce agreement (which ended the 1950-53 war)." (Agence France-Presse)

• Ryu Gil-jae, professor at the University of North Korean Studies, disagreed, saying the incident appeared aimed at testing the South Korean government. “North Korea would have test-fired missiles if it had wanted to wex the US.  The Yellow Sea clash is more of a message to the South that it should be taken more seriously.” (Yonhap)

• Kang Sung-yoon, a North Korea specialist at Dongguk University, believes the attack serves more than one purpose. (Yonhap)

Korean Peninsula Today, 02 June 2009

• A team of high-ranking US officials may ask China and others to cooperate on imposing financial curbs on North Korea

• A long-range missile was seen near a launch pad in Northwest North Korea

• North Korea has intensified landing exercises using amphibious vessels along its west coast amid growing fears it may be plotting an attack on a South Korean island

Korean Peninsula Today, 01 June 2009

• North Korea may carry out another long-rage ballistic missile test sometime after 10 Jun

• Chinese fishing vessels are leaving the NLL

• North Korea fired another short-range missile on Friday, 29 May 2009, and threatened fresh steps if world powers impose sanctions for its nuclear test.

North Korea reacts to South Korea's decision to fully participate in PSI: declares Korean War Armistice "null"

The following was carried as an unscheduled program, and is observed to be North Korea's first reaction to South Korea's decision to participate in PSI:

(Originally broadcasted by North Korea's Korean Central Broadcasting Station in Korean)

Statement P'anmunjo'm Mission of the Korean People's Army: 

Those Who Toy With Us Will Not Be Able To Avoid Merciless Punishment Beyond Imagination The unstable situation of our country -- which is neither at war nor in peace -- is dashing toward an extreme situation where war may break out at any time.

Such a situation is directly connected with the frenzied maneuver of the US imperialists -- who are frantically running amok with military isolation and crushing maneuvers against us, the other party of war, while totally turning a blind eye to the Armistice Agreement -- and the Lee Myung-bak gang of traitors, which are riding on them.

Its typical movement is none other than the Lee Myung-bak gang of traitors' reckless full participation maneuver in the US-led Proliferation Security Initiative, which was forced by the conspiracy and collusion of the master and its stooge.

Originally, the US attempt to drag in the puppets into this initiative, aimed at military blockade and sheer brigandish naval blockade against us, has been persistently pushed since the Bush administration.

While speaking paradoxically saying that there is the need to convert PSI as a permanent international system, even the incumbent US rulers, including Obama, instigated and draw South Korean puppets to this.

This is a violent infringement and a clear negation of not only the international law but also the Korean Armistice Agreement, which prohibits any kind of blockade against war counterpart.

In spite of that, Lee Myung-bak gang of traitors, who has become inveterate of flunkeyism and subservience, unhesitatingly committed the act of fully participating in PSI, blindly obeying the demands of their masters.

With this, the US imperialists and Lee Myung-bak gang of traitors drew the situation on the Korean peninsula to a state of war.

The P'anmunjo'm Mission of the Korean People's Army clarifies principled position of our revolutionary armed forces to cope with the situation created.

1. As has been already declared to the world, our revolutionary armed forces will regard the Lee Myung-bak gang of traitors' full participation in the PSI as a declaration of war against us.

Accordingly, we will brand hostile acts, such as interdictions and inspections, against our vessels having peaceful purposes - no matter how trivial they may be - as unpardonable violation of our Republic's sovereignty and will respond with immediate and strong military strikes.

2. The incumbent rulers of the United States are so crazed with the maneuver to crush the DPRK that they negated the Armistice Agreement itself, not to mention international law. Without being satisfied with this, the authorities recklessly abandoned even their responsibility as the very signer of the agreement and finally dragged the puppets into the PSI. In this situation, our army will not be bound by the Armistice Agreement any longer, either.

If the Armistice Agreement loses its binding force, the Korean peninsula will surely get back to the state of war in legal terms, and our revolutionary armed forces will proceed to military action corresponding to it.

3. At present, the KPA will not be able to guarantee the legal status of the South side's five islands -- Paengnyo'ng, Taech'o'ng, Soch'o'ng, Yo'np'yo'ng, and U Islands -- in the northwest territorial waters of our maritime Military Demarcation Line in the West Sea of Korea and the safe navigation of the vessels of the US imperialist forces of aggression and puppet Navy as well as general ships that move in the nearby waters.

Under a condition where the US imperialists and Lee Myung-bak gang of traitors have given up the just [kongjo'nghan] demands of international law and mutual agreement, it does not make sense if it's only us who implement them the demands and agreement.

There is no greater miscalculation than thinking that the US-style theory that the weak are the prey of the strong can work with us.

The South and the United States should correctly be aware that we also have mighty military strength and our-style striking method that can, if necessary, can enable DPRK to sit astride nearby objects at one stroke or strike the vital spot of the United States.

Those who toy with us will not be able to avoid merciless punishment beyond imagination.

In and Around North Korea: 09 - 15 May 2009

North Korea vows to bolster nuclear power, citing US hostility and US says North

Korea will face ‘consequences’ if it carries out its threats

• On 08 May, North Korea said there is no use in trying to talk with the US an vowe to bolster its nuclear deterrent, citing US remains “hostile” toward it.
  
• Stephen Bosworth, who was visiting South Korea on 08 May, dismissed Nort Korea’s claim saying the US continues its efforts for bilateral and multilateral dialogue with the North. He made clear that if North Korea puts its threats into action, it will face “consequences.”
  
• On 10 May, a South Korean government official said the US has no intension of sending a high-level envoy to North Korea or take any other steps to revive the Six-Party Talks. The official said in a background briefing for reporters on the results of US-ROK consultation with Stephen Bosworth added the US believes that it has done enough to convey its willingness to engage the North in both bilateral and multilateral talks and that “there can be progress in dialogue only when a partner responds (to proposals for talks) and shows interest.”
  
• He said, "They want to kill the six-party talks." When asked if he expected North Korea to carry out another nuclear test, Saymore said, "I think they will. That's what they are threatening to do." He did add, however, he would consider over the next couple of weeks whether to visit North Korea.
  
• Stephen Bosworth returned to the US on 12 May after visiting China, South Korea, and Japan. Originally, Bosworth was scheduled to visit Russia, but cancelled his trip, sending Sung Kim to Moscow in his place.
  

Russia and US calls for resumption of Six-Party Talks

• A Russian diplomat said on 13 May Russia and the US are against putting to much pressure on North Korea, and urged the resumption of the Six-Party Talks.
  
• Foreign Ministry Special Ambassador Grigory Logvinov met with Sung Kim on the same day about the nuclear issue on the Korean peninsula.
  
• The Interfax News Agency quoted Logvinov as saying after the meeting, "We discussed in detail various aspects of the situation, putting an accent on the main thing – the search for solutions should be sought on diplomatic negotiating tracks without too much fuss and without drama, to say nothing of attempts to put pressure."
  
• "The common wish is that the six-party process be resumed one way or another. And all the gains achieved – a great deal has been achieved – must be saved," Logvinov said, "We must not lose what we have done in terms of denuclearization and in terms of starting the effort to lay the groundwork for regional security in Northeast Asia."
  

A US scholar says North Korea may double its plutonium stock in half decade

• Siegfried Hecker, a Stanford University professor who has visited North Korea multiple times, said on 13 May North Korea may double its stockpile of plutonium for nuclear weapons by 2013, producing enough for one bomb each year with its existing fuel.
  
• Hecker also said the North may have started work on its 14,000 unused fuel rods as early as this month.
  
• Fuel rods are reprocessed to produce the plutonium needed to build nuclear bombs after undergoing irradiation in a reactor. North Korea reported last year it has 30 kilograms of plutonium in storage.
  
• In retaliation for the UN condemnation of its 05 Apr rocket launch, the North said last month that it was quitting the Six-Party Talks and had begun reprocessing 8,000 spent fuel rods. Hecker said in an article posted on the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, "These 8,000 spent fuel rods could contain as much as 12 kilograms of plutonium.”
  

North Korea claims nuclear weapons serves as deterrent as it continues its rhetoric against the US, commenting on the speech of the Commander of US Forces Korea

• On 12 May, North Korea reiterated that its nuclear weapons are for deterrenc and acquiring the deterrence was “entirely just,” citing the 22 Apr comments by the Commander of US Forces Korea on the US commitment to provide a nuclear umbrella for Seoul.
• The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said “Walter Sharp, commander of the U.S. forces in South Korea, recently blustered that the U.S. would be firmly committed to providing a nuclear umbrella to south Korea, asserting that the 'U.S.-South Korea Mutual Defense Treaty' would remain valid even after the transfer of the 'right to command wartime operations' to South Korea.”
  
• The KCNA said the US pressure on North Korea to dismantle its nuke while simultaneously talking about the "provision of a nuclear umbrella to south Korea," is almost tantamount to forcing it to lay down its arms.
  
• The KCNA also said, "It was entirely just for the DPRK to have acquired nuclear deterrent for self-defence to cope with the ever-more undisguised moves of the U.S. for a nuclear war.”
  
• North Korea’s Rodong Shinmun made a similar claim on 05 May.
  

North Korea subordinates the Operations Department and Office 35 under military control

• Sources said on 10 May North Korea has carried out a reshuffle of government organizations, shifting the jurisdiction over its overseas espionage and cash cow operations – Office 35 and Operations Department – from the Workers' Party to the People’s Armed Forces.
  
• The Operations Department is known to train and send agents to the ROK, US, and Japan, but its recent operations are believed to have shifted toward trades of arms, drugs and fake bills. "North Korea's Operations Department handles a large amount of cash through illegal activities such as counterfeiting currency, manufacturing drugs and exporting arms," a source said. "With the Operations Department now under its wing, the North Korean military will have a major source of independent financing."
  
• Office 35 is North Korea's intelligence unit in charge of collecting information from the ROK, Japan, China, Southeast Asia, and Europe.
  

Kim Jong-un apparently increasing his visibility in North Korea

• Open source reporting said on 11 May the third and youngest son of Kim Jong-il has been increasingly visible on official occasions and masterminded the country's major publicity stunts, such as a recent fireworks extravaganza, in an apparent bid to burnish his image as a successor.
  
• Kim Jong-un, who is believed to have been tapped in Jan 09 as the North’s next leader, has been seen making efforts to elevate his reputation by organizing the 15 Apr fireworks show and initiating an economic reconstruction drive, called the "150-day campaign."
  
• The reports contend that Kim Jong-un is responsible for initiating the 150-day campaign,  nationwide movement to rebuild the country's sickly economy by maximizing its labor force during the period. The reports say the labor campaign, which started to appear in North Korean media reports this month, is a copy of the "70-day campaign" his father launched to rev up production amid a global oil price crisis in 1974.
  

North Korea seeks help from PETROBRAS to prospect for oil in East Sea

• On 11 May, North Korean Foreign Minister Pak Ui-Chun expressed to Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim North Korea’s interest in receiving assistance in its oil prospecting efforts fro PETROBRAS (Brazilian Petroleum Corporation).
  
• The deposit in question would be the hydrocarbons field in the East Sea (aka Sea of Japan)
  
• Park arrived in Brasilia on a stop during a Latin American tour that included visits to Cuba and Peru.
  
• The ministers also had a “clear” dialogue on controversial subjects, including human rights and the North Korean nuclear program, and Amorim expressed Brazil’s opinion that the North should maintain the Six-Party Talks.
  

Japanese government report says North Korea made progress in extending its

missile range

• The Japanese Defense Ministry has concluded in a report that North Korea launched a long-range ballistic missile in April to test and improve its missiles and has made progress in extending their range.
  
• The summary of the report states that the launch of what appears to have been either a Taepo Dong-2 or an improved version could lead to the enhancement of the accuracy of the Rodong medium-range missile, which is capable of striking Japan.
  

North Korea steps up force mobilization along the Northern Limit Line (NLL)

• Since the Jan 09 announcement, North Korea has breached the NLL three times in Feb 09 and Mar 09, said a ROK colonel overseeing Yeonpyeong Island.
  
• "Each ship reached about two to three kilometers into our territory," he said, adding livefire artillery training has also doubled this year along the North Korean coastline.
  
• Stating that the number of sorties by North Korean aircraft rose six times from a year earlier, he said about 100 fighter jets and surveillance airplanes took off from bases south of Pyongyang on 07 Apr, just two days after the missile launch.
  

North Korea sets date for trial of two US reporters

• North Korean state media said on 14 May that two US female journalists detained in North Korea for illegally entering the country will stand trial on 04 Jun.
  
• Analysts suspect North Korea may be following in the footsteps of Iran, which arrested, tried and released a female American journalist amid diplomatic contacts with the US over the past few months.
  
• The Korean Central News Agency said in a one-sentence report, "The Central Court of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea decided to try (the) American journalists on 04 Jun according to the indictment of the competent organ."
  

North Korea tells the South there will be no chance of serious dialogue between the two Koreas

• A spokesman for the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland said in a statement carried by the North's Korean Central News Agency said, "There simply is no need to even consider holding talks between the North and the South while the Lee Myung-bak group is publicly trying to smear the name of our republic and bluntly denying the republic."
  

Second Kaesong meeting between two Koreas is uncertain

• A ROK government official said, “The government has tried to negotiate with North Korea on the matter of holding a second Kaesong meeting sometime within the week. We see the second Kaesong meeting as necessary to maintaining momentum for inter-Korean dialogue, however, we have not been able to come to an agreement with North Korea about it due to a huge gap in opinions.”
  
• Regarding the agenda, the ROK is demanding to talk about South Korean employee, who has been detained for 45 days by North Korea, as a prerequisite to the discussions about wage and land use fees in Kaesong.
  
• In the afternoon of 15 May, the ROK proposed to the North a meeting next week to discuss the KIC issues to include that of the detained South Korean worker.
  

ROK Ministry of Unification closes North Korea humanitarian aid unit to make room for an North Korean internal politics analysis unit

• On 12 May, the ROK’s unification ministry closed its bureau on humanitarian aid to North Korea and launched a new office designed to better analyze Pyongyang's internal politics as part of the ROK government restructuring and reorganization.
  
• The Cabinet approved the ministry's proposal to shut down its Humanitarian Cooperation Bureau and set up the tentatively-named Political Analysis Bureau, Kim Jung-tae, assistant minister for planning and coordination, said in a press briefing.
  
• Kim explained, "The restructuring aims to strengthen the ministry's long-term unification policy and intelligence analysis and merge overlapped low-level units."
  

South Korea and IAEA meet to discuss North Korea and other pending issues

• Olli Heinonen, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)'s deputy director general for safeguards, held a series of meetings with officials at South Korea's foreign ministry, science and technology ministry, and the presidential office in Seoul on 12 and 13 May.
  
• Heinonen arrived in South Korea on 10 May for a five-day stay during which he will also attended a regional forum on implementing an IAEA accord. He met with the Vice Foreign Minister Shin Kak-soo, top nuclear negotiator Wi So'ng-rak, and Oh Joon, deputy foreign minister for international organizations, global issues and treaties.
  

ROKAF reports Chinese military tried to hack into the ROK Embassy in the US last

year

• According to an annual publication that details the defense capabilities of global powers, China operates a “Red Hacker” unit of about a million hackers mainly attacking the US, Japan, and Taiwan.
  
• The publication said, the hackers, including those recruited from the US institutes such as MIT, attempted to hack systems at the South Korean Embassy in Mar 08, citing ROK military intelligence.
  
• The case marks the first time the ROK has publicly asserted that the Chinese military has tried to hack into its diplomatic office abroad.
  

Rocket Launch: North Korea's Latest Attempt at Blackmail

Today at 4:22 p.m. (Korea Standard Time), North Korea confirmed its rocket launch earlier that morning, saying that "communications satellite Kwangmyongsong 2 (Bright Star 2)" has successfully entered into orbit. North Korea stated that the rocket was launched at 11:20 a.m., and the satellite entered orbit at 11:29:02 a.m. Although North Korea stated this afternoon that the rocket was launched at 11:20 a.m., the South Korea Presidential Office announced this morning at 11:46 a.m. that the rocket was launched at 11:30:15 a.m. during a post-launch press briefing. As of now, the South Korean Yonhap News Agency says the "neighboring countries monitoring the launch have "no evidence yet" to prove North Korea's claim, according to a senior Seoul official said on condition of anonymity."

At 4:22 p.m., North Korea's state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) released a report that stated, "Scientists and technicians of the DPRK have succeeded in putting satellite Kwangmyongsong 2, an experimental communications satellite, into orbit by means of carrier rocket Unha 2 (Milky Way 2) under the state long-term plan for the development of outer space." The KCNA report claimed the three-stage rocket Unha 2 blasted off from a launch pad located in Musadan-ri, North North Hamgyeong Province, (on the country's northeast coast) at 11:20 a.m. and put the satellite safely into orbit 2 seconds past 11:29 a.m. The report also said that the Kwangmyongsong 2 satellite is now following an "elliptic orbit, at the angle of inclination of 40.6 degrees at 490 km perigee and 1 426 km apogee," adding its cycle is 104 minutes and 12 seconds. The KCNA said, "the satellite is going round on its routine orbit. It is sending to the earth the melodies of the immortal revolutionary paeans Song of General Kim Il-sung and Song of General Kim Jong-il and measured information at 470 MHz. By the use of the satellite the relay communications is now underway by UHF frequency band." It added, "the carrier rocket and the satellite developed through our indigenous wisdom and technology are the shining result of efforts to develop the nation's space science and technology on a higher level." The KCNA report also said today's space launch will boost the country's campaign to build a strong nation by 2012 as it "seeks to become a great, prosperous and powerful nation" by that year -- 100th anniversary of the birth of the late Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il's father. It added, "this is powerfully encouraging the Korean people all out in the general advance."

According to a Yonhap report, a South Korean government official stated, "the South Korean government assumes the North Korean rocket was a space vehicle, not a missile, but it is not yet known whether it was carrying a satellite and whether it entered orbit as North Korea claims." He also said, "it has not been confirmed yet whether the North Korean report is true or not."

Today's launch itself has been in development since February 3, when the South Korean Yonhap news reported that North Korea is preparing to test fire its long-range missile. North Korea's position has been that it is launching an experimental communications satellite. Japan, South Korea, and the United States have been insisting that the North Koreans are using the rocket launch as a cover for a long-range ballistic missile test. World Leaders (with the exception of the Chinese -- China said "it has taken notice of North Korea's rocket launch," and it urged all relevant parties to maintain "cool-headedness and restraint."urges all parties to maintain restraint over the matter." -- and the Russians) have criticized the launch as being provocative and in violation of the UNSC Resolution 1718, which expressly prohibits North Korea from conducting ballistic missile-related activities of any kind.

Looking back, we can link today's event to January 13, 2009, when a spokesman for the North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement that the US should first normalize relations with North Korea as a precondition for its denuclearization and that it will hold onto its nuclear weapons as long as the US backs South Korea with its own atomic arsenal. The statement also demanded that if “the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is the issue to be settled only when the DPRK shows nuclear weapons,” then North Korea must be able to also verify the presence of nuclear weapons in South Korea as well and that the same rule should be applied to US troops stationed in South Korea. I have to believe that today's event was planned well before January 13, but I really think this was the first glimpse of North Korea's well planned campaign to conduct today's launch. I wrote about the likelihood of North Korean ballistic missile test in a piece I wrote and posted on my blog earlier this year.

Really, to me, when I look at today's event, the core of the issue is not whether North Korea launched a satellite or tested a ballistic missile. The core of the issue is that North Korea is behaving this way to blackmail the United States and the international community so that it can benefit from it.

Two Birds with One Stone: Attention from the US; Conciliation from the ROK

On 30 Jan, the North Korean Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Fatherland (CPRF) issued a statement that is will “nullify” 1) “all the agreed points concerning the issue of putting an end to the political and military confrontation between the north and the south”; and 2) the Agreement on Reconciliation, Non-aggression, Cooperation and Exchange between the North and the South and the points on the military boundary line – the Northern Limit Line (NLL) – in the West Sea (Yellow Sea) stipulated in its appendix.” In the statement, North Korea blasted the Republic of Korea (ROK) government and said the hard-line policies of Lee Myung-bak forced it to nullify the accords. The CPRF, a body handling inter-Korean affairs in North Korea, said in the statement that "the group of traitors has already reduced all the agreements reached between the north and the south in the past to dead documents. … Under such situation it is self-evident that there is no need for the DPRK to remain bound to those north-south agreements.” This statement shapely raised tensions between the two Koreas and raised the possibility of a naval clash in the West Sea. The ROK government expressed “deep regret” about the statement and encouraged North Korea to agree to a dialogue with the South, which the North has rejected.

The 30 Jan statement is the second threatening statement North Korea has made this year that mentioned the NLL.

On 17 Jan, a spokesman of the North Korean People's Army (KPA) General Staff issued a statement announcing that because the Lee Myung-bak government of South Korea has continued to insist on a hostile policy toward North Korea and it will conduct "all-out confrontation" against the South.

Though the North Korean Naval Command routinely protests movements by the ROK vessels close to the NLL in the West Sea (Yellow Sea), it does not complain as frequently about the ROK vessels’ movement across the North’s claimed demarcation line – which is well south of the NLL.

Indeed, a North Korean military provocation against the South near the NLL (or other actions that could be perceived as provocative) in the future cannot be ruled out; however, it is more likely that these pronouncements are intended to pressure the South to adapt more conciliatory policies toward the North while garnering attention from the new US administration.

Recent Developments Surrounding North Korea Leading up to the 30 Jan CPRF Statement:

• Weeks prior to the US inauguration, North Korea offered to send a top diplomat to the inauguration, which the US rejected on 12 Jan.

• On 13 Jan, a spokesman for the North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement that the US should first normalize relations with North Korea as a precondition for its denuclearization and that it will hold onto its nuclear weapons as long as the US backs the ROK with its own atomic arsenal. The statement also demanded that if “the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is the issue to be settled only when the DPRK shows nuclear weapons,” then North Korea must be able to also verify the presence of nuclear weapons in the ROK as well and that the same rule should be applied to US troops stationed in the ROK.

• On 15 Jan, the ROK government rejected the North’s demand as “distorted.”

• On 16 Jan, North Korea issued another strong statement directed at the US about retaining nuclear weapons. The North stated that it will boost its nuclear deterrent and maintain its nuclear weapons as longs as it remains under a nuclear threat from the US.

• On 17 Jan, North Korea escalated its saber rattling against the ROK with a threatening statement from the KPA General Staff.

• On 19 Jan, the ROK’s unification minister-designate, Hyun In-taek, said he will work more closely with the US in dealing with North Korea, as he prepared to take over the post amid the worst inter-Korean relations in a decade. Hyun, a university professor named as the ROK’s top policymaker on North Korea, sounded tough in line with the ROK President Lee Myung-bak's hard-line stance toward the North, a departure from his moderate predecessor who focused on persuading North Korea to engage in talks. Unlike other major North Korea experts, Hyun prioritizes the ROK's alliance with the US over reconciliation with North Korea and advocates international consensus as the starting point in dealing with the North.

• On 21 Jan, the White House stated that the new Barack Obama administration will get rid of North Korea's nuclear weapons programs "through tough and direct diplomacy." According to a foreign policy agenda posted on the White House Web site, the administration plans to "use tough diplomacy – backed by real incentives and real pressures – to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and to eliminate fully and verifiably North Korea's nuclear weapons program." The Web posting came one day after President Obama said in his inauguration ceremony on 20 Jan that "with old friends and former foes, we will work tirelessly to lessen the nuclear threat."

• On 23 Jan, Xinhua News Agency reported that Kim Jong-il said he wanted a nuclear free Korean peninsula, declaring his willingness to work with China to push forward the six-party process. Kim stated, “The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is committed to the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, and hopes to live in peace with all other sides. … We don’t want to see tension emerge in the situation on the peninsula, and we are willing to strengthen coordination and cooperation with China and push forward the six-party process without interruption.” The US and the ROK welcomed Kim Jong-il’s reported commitment.

• On 26 Jan, former US President Jimmy Carter said he believes North Korea would be willing to give up its nuclear weapons for US diplomatic recognition, a peace deal with the ROK and the US, and if it got new atomic power reactors and free fuel oil. Former President Carter said in an interview with the Associated Press that "It could be worked out, in my opinion, in half a day."

• On 27 Jan, the US Secretary of State Clinton said that six-party talks are "essential" to ending North Korea's nuclear weapons ambitions and that North Korea's nuclear proliferation should be resolved quickly through direct diplomacy of the US if necessary.

• On 30 Jan, North Korea’s CPRF stated that the North is scrapping all political and military agreements with the ROK and declared the NLL void. The ROK responded to the North’s threat with a warning of its own, stating that any attempt by North Korea to violate the NLL will face firm counteraction.

North Korean Rhetoric about the NLL from Jan 99 – Jan 09: For the past 10 years, North Korea has issued over 200 statements (rhetoric and threats) regarding the NLL through diplomatic channels, KPA delegation stationed at the Joint Security Area (JSA), as well as its state and affiliated media outlets. (See Graph 1) All of the statements issued from 1999 – 2008 (202 statements) have been in response to specific past or upcoming events rather than precursors of North Korean contrived events. Almost all of the statements were in response to major ROK-US combined military exercises; naval clashes between the North and South Korean navies; and disputes between the North and South Korean fishing boats during the blue crab fishing seasons. Only North Korean statements related to NLL that were not in response to specific events were issued in 2009 (five reports – the 17 Jan KPA General Staff pronouncement and four reports that referred to the pronouncement). The 30 Jan CPRF statement seems to be a response to the ROK’s and the US’ lack of appropriate action to the 17 Jan statement. (See Graph 2)

Significance of 17 Jan Pronouncement: The KPA General Staff pronouncements have been used to announce increased states of military readiness in the past, and only two have been observed in the past 10 years. Both of the KPA pronouncements were issued in response to a specific event. In Dec 98, a KPA General Staff spokesman’s statement responded to “third country” media reports about Operation Plan 5027 – what Pyongyang describes as US-ROK preparations for “northward aggression” – saying although we do not want a war, we also will not avoid a war.” In Sep 99, KPA General Staff special communiqué delineated the North’s West Sea military demarcation line (MDL) in response to a deadly Jun 99 North-South naval clash.

The North has often adopted “postures” to raise tension, but it is unusual to place the KPA on an “all-out confrontation posture”. The reference to this heightened “posture” presumably correlates with a higher-state of readiness and it should be noted that this higher-state of readiness coincides with North Korea’s annual Winter Training Cycle (WTC) for its armed forces.
The announcement’s warning that “strong military countermeasures … will follow” is more categorical than typical North Korean military warnings. Of significance is that there is no language indicating the North intends to start a war. The statement did not threaten the ROK islands immediately south of the NLL, nor did it have the usual blood and guts tone of the bellicose statements designed to increase tension across the Peninsula – it focused primarily on the disputed area off the west coast. This is not a new threat although it is more pointed and explicit.

Overall, the North made no commitment to do anything within any time frame throughout the statement. It also did not lay out any specific requirements on the part of the ROK to take action, or a set of actions, in order to defuse the threat.

It seems North Korea issued the 17 Jan pronouncement fully anticipating that the ROK government will continue its hard-line North Korean policies and largely ignore the North’s bluster while putting its military on a higher alert status, which will then allow the North to claim that “the ROK government has failed to respond to Pyongyang’s warnings.”

Another significant aspect of the 17 Jan statement is that it explicitly said it was aimed at both the internal and external audiences. This year’s New Year’s Joint Editorial hinted that North Korea is concerned about discipline issues in the KPA. I may be that the North Korean leadership sees tension with the ROK as a way to help focus its armed forces and instill discipline.

30 Jan CPRF Statement –
For the US: Weeks prior to the US inauguration, North Korea offered to send a top diplomat to the inauguration, which the US rejected on 12 Jan. Four days after the rejection (16 Jan), North Korea issued a strong statement directed at the US about retaining nuclear weapons. The next day (17 Jan), it escalated its saber rattling with a threatening statement against the Republic of Korea (ROK). The sequence of these statements suggests they may be reactions to the diplomatic snub. The quick publications of the statements against the US and the ROK – which the North sees as the proxy of the US – may also signify North Korea had these in preparation in the event of rejection (which implies it had a separate set of statements ready had the US accepted what the North considered a gesture of conciliation).

Between 21 and 27 Jan, the US stated, via multiple channels, that it is willing to work within the Six-Party framework, as well as through direct diplomacy with North Korea, to verify and eliminate fully North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.

On 23 Jan, Kim Jong-il stated, “The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is committed to the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, and hopes to live in peace with all other sides. … We don’t want to see tension emerge in the situation on the peninsula, and we are willing to strengthen coordination and cooperation with China and push forward the six-party process without interruption.”

Given that North Korea has been attempting to maintain itself at the top of the new US administration’s international agenda for some time, the 30 Jan CPRF statement appears to be in part political positioning designed to convey to the new US administration, in strongest terms, that while North Korea will conduct negotiations with the US, it still is a force to be reckoned with.

For the ROK: Since the election and inauguration of the Lee Myung-bak administration in the South, North Korea’s rhetoric and threat against the ROK have increased significantly when compared to the previous two ROK administrations. The inter-Korean relation is at its coolest in over ten years. The North claims the Lee government is the root cause of this chilled relationship.

For the past two ROK administrations, North Korea has enjoyed a conciliatory relationship with the ROK under the Sunshine Policy of Kim Dae-jung, and later the Peace and Prosperity Policy of Roh Moo-hyun, The ROK government under the Kim and Roh administrations was sensitive to the North’s threats and demands, and reacted appropriately – in North’s view – to much of its demands.

With the launching of the Lee administration, the relationship between the two Koreas became frosty quickly. Unlike the previous two ROK administrations, the Lee administration has chosen to take a tough stance against the North, insisting the relationship between the two Koreas must be based on “reciprocity and North Korea’s willingness to disarm its nuclear arsenal.”

In response, North Korea has been consistently releasing rhetoric and threats against the ROK government through diplomatic channels, KPA delegation stationed at the Joint Security Area (JSA), as well as its state and affiliated media outlets. The frequency and belligerent tone of the North Korean rhetoric and threats have increased throughout 2008, culminating with the 24 Nov 08 announcement of five “punitive” measures (which was implemented on 01 Dec 08) as a retaliation to the ROK’s “anti-republic” and “anti-unification” policies.

In the face of the North’s increasingly belligerent and frequent rhetoric and threats, the ROK government has not wavered and adheres to its hard-line policy. As expected, the ROK government largely ignored the 17 Jan KPA pronouncement as just another series of provocative sound-bites.

The 30 Jan CPRF statement appears to be, among other purposes, a response to the lack of ROK reaction to the 17 Jan KPA statement, designed to elevate the pressure on the ROK to induce a change in the South’s North Korea policy.

Conclusion: The use of a highly authoritative statement on 17 Jan and the issuance of the highly provocative statement on 30 Jan certainly are intended to underscore the gravity with which North Korea views the current inter-Korean and international political situation.

Recent series of rhetoric and threats surrounding the NLL seems to be a set of political maneuvering on the part of North Korea. A continuing leitmotif of North Korean regional foreign policy is its aim to establish diplomatic relations with the US while isolating the ROK from the regional diplomatic and security forums. The statements from 17 and 30 Jan served as a vehicle to maintain the US’ focus in the region and engagement with the North to bring to fruition Kim Jong-il’s deep seated desire to normalize diplomatic relations with the US. Through the same two statements, the North has conveyed the ROK administration its mounting displeasure about the current ROK policy on North Korea.

Politically, North Korea has more to lose than gain if there is a military clash between the North and the South (along the NLL or anywhere else on the Korean Peninsula); however, the possibility of provocation (real or perceived) and/or miscalculation induced clash certainly does exist if the current trend of elevated tensions between the two Koreas continues.

If North Korea truly believes provocation is the right path to take in order to gain the attentions of the US and the ROK (of course it will gain the attention of the international community as well), it is more likely the North would conduct a ballistic missile test rather than contrive a tactical military skirmish.