China/Taiwan-US: Taiwan will ask the United States to postpone the sale of two advanced weapons systems to save money, a senior legislator with ties to the military said on 28 October, Reuters reported.
Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: A decision to not spend money usually and obviously means that money will be saved. However, the timing of the announcement is propitious because it neutralizes temporarily an issue that might have blemished the US President's visit to India late next week. Taiwan will want something in return.
North Korea-Cuba: Chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army Vice Marshal Ri Yong Ho, left Pyongyang on 28 October to lead a delegation to Cuba, The Associated Press reported.
Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: Reports of a close relationship between North Korea and Cuba extend for decades in the past. They include allegations of large North Korean troop deployments to Cuba.
Nothing significant has ever been proven. Still the visits have continued. Cuba and North Korea share the distinction with Vietnam and Laos of being the last surviving Marxist-Leninist states.
China-Pakistan: Chinese Major General Yang Hui, director general of the Intelligence Directorate, visited Chief of Army Staff General Kayani at General Headquarters on 28 October, Associated Press of Pakistan reported. The two discussed matters of professional interest, according to Pakistan's Inter Services Public Relations.
Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: A visit by a Chinese intelligence general to Pakistan usually signifies a problem. The usual problem is that Pakistan is harboring, aiding, training and abetting anti-Han Chinese Islamic terrorists in the 42 terrorist camps that Pakistani intelligence sustains in Pakistani Kashmir.
Chinese intelligence officials seldom visit unless there is a problem. The Chinese do not seem concerned that Pakistani-trained terrorists kill Indians or Americans, but they do object to Pakistan providing or tolerating training of Xinjiang Uighurs who want to kill Han Chinese.
Friday, October 29, 2010
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Regional Update for 27 October
At a meeting in Kaesong to discuss family reunions on Wednesday, North Korea demanded South Korea provide 500,000 tons of rice and 300,000 tons of fertilizer n return for concessions in the reunion program.
"North Korean delegates linked the issue of separated families and the aid, indicating that they could make concessions if rice and fertilizer aid are given," an unidentified South Korea official said. In response to the request for aid, South Korean representatives replied that they were not in a position to give an answer and would refer it to government authorities.
Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: A reunion event will begin Saturday at the jointly-run Mount Kumgang resort on the North's east coast and will last six days, linking 100 people from each side with long-separated family members. Seoul wants to hold similar reunions once a month between March and November, since many elderly people die before getting a chance for such a meeting.
The North's choice of venue for presenting an enormous demand leaves no doubt that the country has a severe food shortage (so, what else is new?). Moreover it does not anticipate good harvests in 2011 without South Korean aid (again…nothing new here).
Curiously, the North's version of communism stresses a home-grown, mythical notion of self-reliance. The facts are that since the Korean War the North has never been self-reliant in anything Without Soviet and Chinese aid of every kind and South Korean and Japanese trade, the country would have imploded decades ago.
Today's demand made no mention of "chuche," the North's term for self-reliance. The North is desperate for help.
"North Korean delegates linked the issue of separated families and the aid, indicating that they could make concessions if rice and fertilizer aid are given," an unidentified South Korea official said. In response to the request for aid, South Korean representatives replied that they were not in a position to give an answer and would refer it to government authorities.
Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: A reunion event will begin Saturday at the jointly-run Mount Kumgang resort on the North's east coast and will last six days, linking 100 people from each side with long-separated family members. Seoul wants to hold similar reunions once a month between March and November, since many elderly people die before getting a chance for such a meeting.
The North's choice of venue for presenting an enormous demand leaves no doubt that the country has a severe food shortage (so, what else is new?). Moreover it does not anticipate good harvests in 2011 without South Korean aid (again…nothing new here).
Curiously, the North's version of communism stresses a home-grown, mythical notion of self-reliance. The facts are that since the Korean War the North has never been self-reliant in anything Without Soviet and Chinese aid of every kind and South Korean and Japanese trade, the country would have imploded decades ago.
Today's demand made no mention of "chuche," the North's term for self-reliance. The North is desperate for help.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Regional Update for 26 October
North Korea: Update. The United States will lead the United Nations Command in a round of colonel-level talks with North Korea at the border village of Panmunjom on 27 October, a military source said, Yonhap reported.
China-Japan: Update. Chinese protesters held an anti-Japanese demonstration near the Japanese Consulate in Chongqing, China, on the 26th . A consulate official said between 1,000 and 2,000 people gathered, including onlookers, and consular security was strengthened and plainclothes police were present. Another witness said the protesters chanted slogans about the disputed Senkaku islands.
China-Southeast Asia: Mainichi reported last week that commercial satellite imagery detected one and possibly two Type 093 nuclear-powered attack submarines docked at a Chinese navy base in Sanya, Hainan Island, in the South China Sea. The image was taken in early September.
In 2008, a Type 094 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine was detected at Sanya, but is not assessed to be based there.
Comment by our friends at KGS NightWatch: China is building and basing submarines to enforce its maritime claims in the East and South China Seas. Experts rate the technology in the Type 093 as a generation or more behind the US, but it is better than anything in the navies of the Southeast Asian states that dispute China's sea claims.
China-Japan: Update. Chinese protesters held an anti-Japanese demonstration near the Japanese Consulate in Chongqing, China, on the 26th . A consulate official said between 1,000 and 2,000 people gathered, including onlookers, and consular security was strengthened and plainclothes police were present. Another witness said the protesters chanted slogans about the disputed Senkaku islands.
China-Southeast Asia: Mainichi reported last week that commercial satellite imagery detected one and possibly two Type 093 nuclear-powered attack submarines docked at a Chinese navy base in Sanya, Hainan Island, in the South China Sea. The image was taken in early September.
In 2008, a Type 094 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine was detected at Sanya, but is not assessed to be based there.
Comment by our friends at KGS NightWatch: China is building and basing submarines to enforce its maritime claims in the East and South China Seas. Experts rate the technology in the Type 093 as a generation or more behind the US, but it is better than anything in the navies of the Southeast Asian states that dispute China's sea claims.
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Regional Update for 25 October
Japan-China: The Japanese government formally protested to the Chinese government on 25 October the presence of Chinese patrol boats near the Senkaku Islands. Japanese authorities detected two Chinese patrol boats late Sunday in Japan's "contiguous zone" but did not cross into Japanese territorial waters, Kyodo reported, citing Japan's coast guard.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku said in the protest message that seeing Chinese patrol boats made his government feel "uncomfortable. He also said that Japan will step up its monitoring activities around the Islands, according to Kyodo.
China's foreign ministry claimed that its boats' patrols are both legal and based on need.
Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: Mainstream international press did not report the Chinese patrol boat activity nor at least three more anti-Japanese protests and demonstrations over the weekend. The confrontation over the Senkakus continues.
South Korea-US: For the record. A Pentagon spokesman today rejected claims by South Korean media that a planned U.S.-South Korea naval exercise had been postponed due to Chinese protests, Reuters reported. The spokesman told reporters that authorities in Washington and in Seoul were unable to reach a scheduling agreement, adding the exercises were intended to send a message to North Korea and should not be China's concern.
Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: The comment by the spokesman misses the point that the North has moved closer to China during the succession period than at any time since the government of Deng Xiaoping in the early 1980s. The US is much less significant than it was a year ago in North Korea's strategic calculations. Since China agreed to assume overwatch responsibility for the Kim regime this year, the Allies have succeeded in sending no significant "messages" to North Korea.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku said in the protest message that seeing Chinese patrol boats made his government feel "uncomfortable. He also said that Japan will step up its monitoring activities around the Islands, according to Kyodo.
China's foreign ministry claimed that its boats' patrols are both legal and based on need.
Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: Mainstream international press did not report the Chinese patrol boat activity nor at least three more anti-Japanese protests and demonstrations over the weekend. The confrontation over the Senkakus continues.
South Korea-US: For the record. A Pentagon spokesman today rejected claims by South Korean media that a planned U.S.-South Korea naval exercise had been postponed due to Chinese protests, Reuters reported. The spokesman told reporters that authorities in Washington and in Seoul were unable to reach a scheduling agreement, adding the exercises were intended to send a message to North Korea and should not be China's concern.
Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: The comment by the spokesman misses the point that the North has moved closer to China during the succession period than at any time since the government of Deng Xiaoping in the early 1980s. The US is much less significant than it was a year ago in North Korea's strategic calculations. Since China agreed to assume overwatch responsibility for the Kim regime this year, the Allies have succeeded in sending no significant "messages" to North Korea.
Monday, October 25, 2010
Regional Update for 24 October
South Korea and the United States have canceled the planned combined naval exercise in the West Sea (Yellow Sea) scheduled for late October, South Korean state-run broadcaster KBS reported on 24 October, citing a senior South Korean official.
The decision was made in order to avoid irritating neighboring countries (really one neighboring country – China) and to improve conditions for the G20 Summit in Seoul on 11 and 12 November, Yonhap reported, citing another unnamed government source. The US aircraft carrier USS George Washington is unlikely to participate in any other combined exercises with South Korea in 2010, and the two allies will also delay the large-scale amphibious landing exercises planned for late October.
Comment (This comment is based exclusively on open source information which always is incomplete.): The cancellation appears to be a gratuitous conciliatory gesture to China to ensure its participation in the economic summit, where it is expected to be generally uncooperative, by some analysts.
The concern is that this is the second major security issue in Asia in which the US appears to have deferred to China's sensibilities, rather than assert the prerogatives of a great power.
This cancellation would appear to negate all the brave language US spokesman have used to assert allied solidarity in confronting North Korea' aggression in sinking the South Korean corvette, Cheonan, in March. In the perception of the international community, the US backed down every time China protested the scheduling of joint exercises aimed at North Korea.
After seven months, North Korea still has gotten away with sinking an Allied patrol ship.
The second issue was the Chinese reaction to Japan's arrest of a Chinese fishing boat and crew in the Senkakus after the Chinese boat rammed a Japanese patrol boat. Only the Secretary of State stood with the Japanese against China. The rest of the US administration did not and has not.
Pro-US leaders in Asia are well advised to remember 2010 as a pivotal year for reassessing the dominant power in Asia.
The decision was made in order to avoid irritating neighboring countries (really one neighboring country – China) and to improve conditions for the G20 Summit in Seoul on 11 and 12 November, Yonhap reported, citing another unnamed government source. The US aircraft carrier USS George Washington is unlikely to participate in any other combined exercises with South Korea in 2010, and the two allies will also delay the large-scale amphibious landing exercises planned for late October.
Comment (This comment is based exclusively on open source information which always is incomplete.): The cancellation appears to be a gratuitous conciliatory gesture to China to ensure its participation in the economic summit, where it is expected to be generally uncooperative, by some analysts.
The concern is that this is the second major security issue in Asia in which the US appears to have deferred to China's sensibilities, rather than assert the prerogatives of a great power.
This cancellation would appear to negate all the brave language US spokesman have used to assert allied solidarity in confronting North Korea' aggression in sinking the South Korean corvette, Cheonan, in March. In the perception of the international community, the US backed down every time China protested the scheduling of joint exercises aimed at North Korea.
After seven months, North Korea still has gotten away with sinking an Allied patrol ship.
The second issue was the Chinese reaction to Japan's arrest of a Chinese fishing boat and crew in the Senkakus after the Chinese boat rammed a Japanese patrol boat. Only the Secretary of State stood with the Japanese against China. The rest of the US administration did not and has not.
Pro-US leaders in Asia are well advised to remember 2010 as a pivotal year for reassessing the dominant power in Asia.
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Regional Update for October 22
Following update from our friends at KGS NightWatch
South Korea-North Korea: A report to the UN Secretary General indicated North Korea is in danger of another food crisis this winter because of poor harvests. Nevertheless, a South Korean Unification Ministry spokesman reaffirmed the Lee government policy of not providing large scale food aid to North Korea, regardless of need unless and until the political atmosphere improves.
The government in Seoul will continue to approve private humanitarian relief, such a recent shipment of 5,000 tons of rice and other supplies for flood victims.
Comment from KGS NightWatch: The South still wants the North to apologize for the sinking of its patrol ship last March. Prior to 2008 and the South's election of the hard line Lee administration, the South annually provided 400,000 tons of rice and 300,000 tons of fertilizer to the North.
North Korea-China: For the record. Vice Chairman of China's Central Military Commission Gua Boxiong will lead a delegation of senior Chinese military officers to North Korea on 23 October, according to the Ministry of National Defense, Xinhua reported on 22 October. The delegation will attend activities to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the entry of the Chinese People's Volunteers into the Korean front and meet with the North's military leaders to discuss issues of mutual concern, said Chinese spokesman Geng Yansheng.
China: Update. Tibetan language demonstrations spread in northwestern China, as students in Tsolho and Golog prefectures demanded the right to study in their language, according to Free Tibet and Agence France-Presse. Some 2,000 students marched to the local government building in Chabcha, chanting demands for Tibetan language freedoms. Police and teachers turned them away. The Dawu police restricted movement of local residents following student protests in the area.
Comment from KGS NightWatch: This is a minor outbreak of unrest but it continues to showcase the Han Chinese policy of forced assimilation of minorities.
US-China-India: President Obama will visit India between 6 and 9 November. The forthcoming trip has generated significant unease in China about US strategy in Asia.
Since Thursday, a half dozen or more Chinese newspapers and strategists have complained about the US relationship with India. A National Defense University official wrote, "India's goals of becoming a global power cannot be realized by just following the US. This writer accused the US of "building a strategic fence" with Japan and South Korea as the backbone and a carapace of India, Vietnam and other nations having territorial disputes with China.
This official wrote, "India's politicians should be aware that as the two weaker sides of a triangular relationship, it is very important for India and China to maintain stability to prevent the US from profiting from their disputes….The US fence around China is weak but could become an iron wall if China makes strategic mistakes."
Earlier, a Chinese air force colonel wrote about a crescent ring encircling China from Japan to Afghanistan. A professor at Beijing University's School of International Studies said, "If you look around Asia and see what the US is doing, it is not surprising and difficult to understand America's needs in South Asia."
A Fudan University analyst wrote in the China Daily that India and China are made for each other but must guard against western elements. "Some Indian media raised a hue and cry over so-called 'border invasion' by China last year and the recent suspension of bilateral military exchanges,'' said the commentary."Some Western countries and media are trying to use this to drive a wedge between the two neighbors."
Comment from KGS NightWatch: These two ancient cultures have had no significant interaction until modern times. But for colonial era land disputes, they are not natural enemies. However, their aspirations for world power stature have converted them into at least strategic competitors, sometime rivals and potential enemies.
China's rise to great power stature impedes India's dominance in South Asia. China has developed proxies or allies on every Indian border, which undercuts the credibility of its complaints about encirclement. China has spurred India to look to its strategic space in South Asia and to increase security cooperation with East Asia powers with which it has never had significant interaction … before the rise of China.
It is curious that Chinese international affairs commentators evince so much insecurity, for a country that considers itself the equal in many areas of the United States and has become so aggressive in asserting its right to be the leader of Asia.
Comments from the Author of the Blog: For a country that speaks of peace so often, everything from its official government positions to academic papers its scholars publish, it sure seems that its government, its military, and a significant portion of its academia look upon the world through the lens of realism - the theory where peace could only be achieved by either becoming the dominant power or by balancing against the dominant power...the things that make you go hmmm......
India-Pakistan: Indian Army Chief of the Army Staff General V K Singh said on 22 October that interceptions and border monitoring reports have indicated that there are 500 to 600 militants on the Pakistani side of the Line of Control preparing to infiltrate India's state of Jammu and Kashmir, The Times of India reported.
Intelligence inpurts indicate the leadership of Hizbul Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami and Jaish-e-Mohammed have conducted reconnaissance along the Line of Control in advance of infiltration operations. General Singh reported there are teams of eight to nine who are trying to cross the border every day.
Singh also said the anti-India terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan is intact and 42 camps are being run, including newly created camps in Pakistani Kashmir. Infiltration has risen in late summer, as it seasonally does. The Indian Army recorded 10 infiltration incidents in June, six in July and 33 in August.
General Singh judged that about 20-25 infiltration attempts succeeded, which is indicated by the fact that 12 to 15 terrorists were killed in the last 15-20 days. "This shows people have come from somewhere," he said. He concluded that Pakistan perceives Kashmir as an "unfinished agenda.
Comment from KGS NightWatch: Infiltration from Pakistan into Indian Kashmir always increases before winter. The number of Kashmiri militant camps is as high as it has been in the past ten years. This means the progress in reducing the number of camps under Musharraf has been reversed. The camps and the infiltration infrastructure into Kashmir cannot exist without official Pakistani government support.
Even allowing for an anti-Pakistani bias, General Singh's account of conditions along the Line of Control is consistent with autumn conditions in past years. His statements are a reminder that Pakistan remains a state sponsor of terror and continues to use terror as an instrument of state policy against India.
South Korea-North Korea: A report to the UN Secretary General indicated North Korea is in danger of another food crisis this winter because of poor harvests. Nevertheless, a South Korean Unification Ministry spokesman reaffirmed the Lee government policy of not providing large scale food aid to North Korea, regardless of need unless and until the political atmosphere improves.
The government in Seoul will continue to approve private humanitarian relief, such a recent shipment of 5,000 tons of rice and other supplies for flood victims.
Comment from KGS NightWatch: The South still wants the North to apologize for the sinking of its patrol ship last March. Prior to 2008 and the South's election of the hard line Lee administration, the South annually provided 400,000 tons of rice and 300,000 tons of fertilizer to the North.
North Korea-China: For the record. Vice Chairman of China's Central Military Commission Gua Boxiong will lead a delegation of senior Chinese military officers to North Korea on 23 October, according to the Ministry of National Defense, Xinhua reported on 22 October. The delegation will attend activities to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the entry of the Chinese People's Volunteers into the Korean front and meet with the North's military leaders to discuss issues of mutual concern, said Chinese spokesman Geng Yansheng.
China: Update. Tibetan language demonstrations spread in northwestern China, as students in Tsolho and Golog prefectures demanded the right to study in their language, according to Free Tibet and Agence France-Presse. Some 2,000 students marched to the local government building in Chabcha, chanting demands for Tibetan language freedoms. Police and teachers turned them away. The Dawu police restricted movement of local residents following student protests in the area.
Comment from KGS NightWatch: This is a minor outbreak of unrest but it continues to showcase the Han Chinese policy of forced assimilation of minorities.
US-China-India: President Obama will visit India between 6 and 9 November. The forthcoming trip has generated significant unease in China about US strategy in Asia.
Since Thursday, a half dozen or more Chinese newspapers and strategists have complained about the US relationship with India. A National Defense University official wrote, "India's goals of becoming a global power cannot be realized by just following the US. This writer accused the US of "building a strategic fence" with Japan and South Korea as the backbone and a carapace of India, Vietnam and other nations having territorial disputes with China.
This official wrote, "India's politicians should be aware that as the two weaker sides of a triangular relationship, it is very important for India and China to maintain stability to prevent the US from profiting from their disputes….The US fence around China is weak but could become an iron wall if China makes strategic mistakes."
Earlier, a Chinese air force colonel wrote about a crescent ring encircling China from Japan to Afghanistan. A professor at Beijing University's School of International Studies said, "If you look around Asia and see what the US is doing, it is not surprising and difficult to understand America's needs in South Asia."
A Fudan University analyst wrote in the China Daily that India and China are made for each other but must guard against western elements. "Some Indian media raised a hue and cry over so-called 'border invasion' by China last year and the recent suspension of bilateral military exchanges,'' said the commentary."Some Western countries and media are trying to use this to drive a wedge between the two neighbors."
Comment from KGS NightWatch: These two ancient cultures have had no significant interaction until modern times. But for colonial era land disputes, they are not natural enemies. However, their aspirations for world power stature have converted them into at least strategic competitors, sometime rivals and potential enemies.
China's rise to great power stature impedes India's dominance in South Asia. China has developed proxies or allies on every Indian border, which undercuts the credibility of its complaints about encirclement. China has spurred India to look to its strategic space in South Asia and to increase security cooperation with East Asia powers with which it has never had significant interaction … before the rise of China.
It is curious that Chinese international affairs commentators evince so much insecurity, for a country that considers itself the equal in many areas of the United States and has become so aggressive in asserting its right to be the leader of Asia.
Comments from the Author of the Blog: For a country that speaks of peace so often, everything from its official government positions to academic papers its scholars publish, it sure seems that its government, its military, and a significant portion of its academia look upon the world through the lens of realism - the theory where peace could only be achieved by either becoming the dominant power or by balancing against the dominant power...the things that make you go hmmm......
India-Pakistan: Indian Army Chief of the Army Staff General V K Singh said on 22 October that interceptions and border monitoring reports have indicated that there are 500 to 600 militants on the Pakistani side of the Line of Control preparing to infiltrate India's state of Jammu and Kashmir, The Times of India reported.
Intelligence inpurts indicate the leadership of Hizbul Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami and Jaish-e-Mohammed have conducted reconnaissance along the Line of Control in advance of infiltration operations. General Singh reported there are teams of eight to nine who are trying to cross the border every day.
Singh also said the anti-India terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan is intact and 42 camps are being run, including newly created camps in Pakistani Kashmir. Infiltration has risen in late summer, as it seasonally does. The Indian Army recorded 10 infiltration incidents in June, six in July and 33 in August.
General Singh judged that about 20-25 infiltration attempts succeeded, which is indicated by the fact that 12 to 15 terrorists were killed in the last 15-20 days. "This shows people have come from somewhere," he said. He concluded that Pakistan perceives Kashmir as an "unfinished agenda.
Comment from KGS NightWatch: Infiltration from Pakistan into Indian Kashmir always increases before winter. The number of Kashmiri militant camps is as high as it has been in the past ten years. This means the progress in reducing the number of camps under Musharraf has been reversed. The camps and the infiltration infrastructure into Kashmir cannot exist without official Pakistani government support.
Even allowing for an anti-Pakistani bias, General Singh's account of conditions along the Line of Control is consistent with autumn conditions in past years. His statements are a reminder that Pakistan remains a state sponsor of terror and continues to use terror as an instrument of state policy against India.
Monday, September 13, 2010
Regional Update for September 13
New Zealand-China: A Chinese naval training ship and a frigate arrived in Auckland, New Zealand on 11 September for a four-day visit, New Zealand and Chinese press reported. Chinese Rear Admiral Leng said the visit was part of efforts to construct a harmonious world and a harmonious ocean. He added that it was also conducive to improving the level of military cooperation between the two countries.
New Zealand is the fourth stop on the Chinese Navy ships' itinerary, which has included calls at Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu and Tonga, and will take them to Australia next.
Japan-China: Update. A Chinese government law enforcement ship on 11 September asked a Japanese coast guard survey ship operating in Japan's exclusive economic zone to stop its activities, according to coast guard officials.
The encounter occurred about 280 kilometers (173 miles) north-northwest off Okinawa Island. The Japanese ship continued surveying operations for nearly two more hours. Japan later delivered an official complaint to China. The Japanese will not back down from the Chinese, with our without US encouragement.
South Korea-North Korea: Update. South Korea announced today , 13 September, that is will provide aid to North Korea, but repeated that the government in Pyongyang was responsible for the sinking of the South Korean corvette Cheonan in March.
Over the weekend, the North offered to resume reunions of families divided by the Korean War's outcome. None have occurred in over a year.
It also accepted the South Korean Red Cross' offer of $8.3 million in aid, which includes 5,000 tones of rice, 10,000 tons of cement and 3 million packs of instant noodles. Red Cross chief Yoo Chong-ha said the South Korean government is the main financier of the aid.
According to Red Cross figures, about 80,000 elderly South Koreans seek a brief meeting with family left in the North after the war.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: The apparent peace offensive is almost certainly camouflage to obscure the North's failure to convene the 3rd Party Conference. The overtures have no significance except to prolong a benign strategic environment, while the North's leaders sort out their next step.
North Korea: The South Korean television channel YTN reported the 3rd Party Conference has been delayed because of the health of leader Kim Jong-il. Unidentified South Korean intelligence officials supposedly told the station that Kim's health worsened after his five-day trip to northeast China late last month.
The station's report said the Conference would likely be held soon since the 68-year-old's health was not bad enough to warrant a cancellation.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: Our assessment is that Kim's health has been so poor that he is non compos mentis most of the time, except after dialysis, which well-informed observers say occurs thrice weekly. We also judge he has so many body doubles and it is sometime difficult to distinguish them - presumably the Chinese experts on Korea could identify the real Kim from a double.
The Conference does not seem to have taken place yet, which North and South Korean media blame on the exertions of Kim's trip to China. The subtext is the Chinese are to blame for the Dear Leader's present infirmity. There is no way to know who went to China or what was accomplished. The North has raised its shroud of obscurity and might declare the Conference a success tomorrow!
New Zealand is the fourth stop on the Chinese Navy ships' itinerary, which has included calls at Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu and Tonga, and will take them to Australia next.
Japan-China: Update. A Chinese government law enforcement ship on 11 September asked a Japanese coast guard survey ship operating in Japan's exclusive economic zone to stop its activities, according to coast guard officials.
The encounter occurred about 280 kilometers (173 miles) north-northwest off Okinawa Island. The Japanese ship continued surveying operations for nearly two more hours. Japan later delivered an official complaint to China. The Japanese will not back down from the Chinese, with our without US encouragement.
South Korea-North Korea: Update. South Korea announced today , 13 September, that is will provide aid to North Korea, but repeated that the government in Pyongyang was responsible for the sinking of the South Korean corvette Cheonan in March.
Over the weekend, the North offered to resume reunions of families divided by the Korean War's outcome. None have occurred in over a year.
It also accepted the South Korean Red Cross' offer of $8.3 million in aid, which includes 5,000 tones of rice, 10,000 tons of cement and 3 million packs of instant noodles. Red Cross chief Yoo Chong-ha said the South Korean government is the main financier of the aid.
According to Red Cross figures, about 80,000 elderly South Koreans seek a brief meeting with family left in the North after the war.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: The apparent peace offensive is almost certainly camouflage to obscure the North's failure to convene the 3rd Party Conference. The overtures have no significance except to prolong a benign strategic environment, while the North's leaders sort out their next step.
North Korea: The South Korean television channel YTN reported the 3rd Party Conference has been delayed because of the health of leader Kim Jong-il. Unidentified South Korean intelligence officials supposedly told the station that Kim's health worsened after his five-day trip to northeast China late last month.
The station's report said the Conference would likely be held soon since the 68-year-old's health was not bad enough to warrant a cancellation.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: Our assessment is that Kim's health has been so poor that he is non compos mentis most of the time, except after dialysis, which well-informed observers say occurs thrice weekly. We also judge he has so many body doubles and it is sometime difficult to distinguish them - presumably the Chinese experts on Korea could identify the real Kim from a double.
The Conference does not seem to have taken place yet, which North and South Korean media blame on the exertions of Kim's trip to China. The subtext is the Chinese are to blame for the Dear Leader's present infirmity. There is no way to know who went to China or what was accomplished. The North has raised its shroud of obscurity and might declare the Conference a success tomorrow!
Friday, September 10, 2010
Regional Update for September 10
Japan-China: The captain of a Chinese fishing boat was taken to a Japanese court on Ishigaki Island in Okinawa Prefecture on 10 September. Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi demanded the "immediate and unconditional" release of the captain and other crewmembers, according to news relays.
Yang summoned Japanese Ambassador to China Uichiro Niwa to lodge a third protest with Tokyo over what the Chinese Foreign Ministry described as an "illegal detention." Yang told Niwa that Beijing is determined to defend Chinese sovereignty of the Diaoyu Islands, where the ramming incident occurred, and demanded the unconditional release of the boat and crew, according to the ministry
Japan asserts the incident occurred in Japanese territorial waters and that Japan is handling the case in line with domestic law, Niwa told the Chinese. On 10 September a Japanese court ruled that prosecutors can detain the captain of the Chinese fishing boat for 10 days.
In reaction to and protest of the court ruling, the Chinese announced a postponement of a second round of negotiation over disputed island territories. Lest the Japanese miss the point, the Chinese statement described the postponement as a "grave protest."
Comments from KGS NightWatch: Japan and South Korea require little encouragement in standing up to China on territorial or other disputes. In part, this is because they see China's export dependent modern sector as a competitor with their own export-driven economies. Neither Japan nor South Korea is inclined to accommodate China or accept it as a regional leader.
An epochal strategic shift continues to evolve in which Asian States are not only taking responsibility for the security of Asia, they are shaping the nature of the strategic relationships. Japan and South Korea will not roll over for China the way North Korea is doing,with or without US assistance.
South Korea-US: A US Defense Department spokesman announced today, 10 September, that the aircraft carrier USS George Washington will participate with South Korea in war games in international waters of the Yellow Sea off the Korean Peninsula. The US spokesman said the deployment is not aimed at challenging China, but is a warning to North Korea.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: After much hemming and hawing, the US appears to have made a decision in favor of strategic dominance and in favor of US Allies in Asia. Apparently thanks for the extra time to think straight goes to the intervention of a typhoon. The typhoon delayed Allied anti-submarine warfare training in the Yellow Sea and gave the US leadership time to make a decision in favor of American allies and interests.
China-Taiwan: Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) will conduct a maritime rescue drill the week of 13 September with China's Maritime Search and Rescue Center, Taiwanese Central News Agency reported 10 September. The drill will be held in waters off southeastern China, between Taiwan's Kinmen Island and Xiamen, China.
Taiwan's CGA will send nine patrol boats, including a 500-ton patrol vessel, and helicopters to Kinmen. All participating ships and rescue teams will carry flags that symbolize the joint drill, CGA officials said, in an attempt to avoid territorial disputes.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: The drill will be the first time the two coastal patrol agencies will have held joint exercises.
Burma (Myanmar)-China: The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has begun construction of China-Myanmar oil and natural gas pipelines, according to Chinese media. The announcement coincided with a ground-breaking ceremony for a 200,000 barrel-per-day oil refinery in Anning city, Yunnan Province, China.
According to the CNPC statement, the company wants to complete the China section of the pipelines, as well as the refinery, by 2013. The oil pipeline, which will have a capacity of 440,000 barrels per day, will wind 771 kilometers (479 miles) through Myanmar, then stretch 1,631 kilometers though China before ending in Chongqing.
The natural gas pipeline will have a 12 billion cubic meter capacity, and will span 793 kilometers in Myanmar and 1,727 kilometers in China before ending in Guangxi region. The company did not disclose whether or when all three projects would receive final approval from China's National Development and Reform Commission, the body in charge of economic planning and pricing.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: The significance of this information plus other recent reports about China building a railroad through Burma is that they reinforce the assessment that Chinese leaders see Burma as a gateway for channeling natural resources to China.
This symbolizes the next step in China's economic imperialism by creating a network of vertical and horizontal monopolies on a global scale that gather and ship back to China the resources from concessions in Third World countries that the Chinese already have secured.
By using Chinese-made Burmese ports and infrastructure, natural resources from Africa and the Middle East can reach hubs in southern China and avoid the hazards of transiting the Straits of Malacca and Singapore and the South China Sea.
Yang summoned Japanese Ambassador to China Uichiro Niwa to lodge a third protest with Tokyo over what the Chinese Foreign Ministry described as an "illegal detention." Yang told Niwa that Beijing is determined to defend Chinese sovereignty of the Diaoyu Islands, where the ramming incident occurred, and demanded the unconditional release of the boat and crew, according to the ministry
Japan asserts the incident occurred in Japanese territorial waters and that Japan is handling the case in line with domestic law, Niwa told the Chinese. On 10 September a Japanese court ruled that prosecutors can detain the captain of the Chinese fishing boat for 10 days.
In reaction to and protest of the court ruling, the Chinese announced a postponement of a second round of negotiation over disputed island territories. Lest the Japanese miss the point, the Chinese statement described the postponement as a "grave protest."
Comments from KGS NightWatch: Japan and South Korea require little encouragement in standing up to China on territorial or other disputes. In part, this is because they see China's export dependent modern sector as a competitor with their own export-driven economies. Neither Japan nor South Korea is inclined to accommodate China or accept it as a regional leader.
An epochal strategic shift continues to evolve in which Asian States are not only taking responsibility for the security of Asia, they are shaping the nature of the strategic relationships. Japan and South Korea will not roll over for China the way North Korea is doing,with or without US assistance.
South Korea-US: A US Defense Department spokesman announced today, 10 September, that the aircraft carrier USS George Washington will participate with South Korea in war games in international waters of the Yellow Sea off the Korean Peninsula. The US spokesman said the deployment is not aimed at challenging China, but is a warning to North Korea.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: After much hemming and hawing, the US appears to have made a decision in favor of strategic dominance and in favor of US Allies in Asia. Apparently thanks for the extra time to think straight goes to the intervention of a typhoon. The typhoon delayed Allied anti-submarine warfare training in the Yellow Sea and gave the US leadership time to make a decision in favor of American allies and interests.
China-Taiwan: Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) will conduct a maritime rescue drill the week of 13 September with China's Maritime Search and Rescue Center, Taiwanese Central News Agency reported 10 September. The drill will be held in waters off southeastern China, between Taiwan's Kinmen Island and Xiamen, China.
Taiwan's CGA will send nine patrol boats, including a 500-ton patrol vessel, and helicopters to Kinmen. All participating ships and rescue teams will carry flags that symbolize the joint drill, CGA officials said, in an attempt to avoid territorial disputes.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: The drill will be the first time the two coastal patrol agencies will have held joint exercises.
Burma (Myanmar)-China: The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has begun construction of China-Myanmar oil and natural gas pipelines, according to Chinese media. The announcement coincided with a ground-breaking ceremony for a 200,000 barrel-per-day oil refinery in Anning city, Yunnan Province, China.
According to the CNPC statement, the company wants to complete the China section of the pipelines, as well as the refinery, by 2013. The oil pipeline, which will have a capacity of 440,000 barrels per day, will wind 771 kilometers (479 miles) through Myanmar, then stretch 1,631 kilometers though China before ending in Chongqing.
The natural gas pipeline will have a 12 billion cubic meter capacity, and will span 793 kilometers in Myanmar and 1,727 kilometers in China before ending in Guangxi region. The company did not disclose whether or when all three projects would receive final approval from China's National Development and Reform Commission, the body in charge of economic planning and pricing.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: The significance of this information plus other recent reports about China building a railroad through Burma is that they reinforce the assessment that Chinese leaders see Burma as a gateway for channeling natural resources to China.
This symbolizes the next step in China's economic imperialism by creating a network of vertical and horizontal monopolies on a global scale that gather and ship back to China the resources from concessions in Third World countries that the Chinese already have secured.
By using Chinese-made Burmese ports and infrastructure, natural resources from Africa and the Middle East can reach hubs in southern China and avoid the hazards of transiting the Straits of Malacca and Singapore and the South China Sea.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Regional Update for September 9
A Foreign Ministry source said Beijing has deployed a "law enforcement ship" to the region in the East China Sea where a Chinese trawler collided with two Japanese coast guard vessels.
The action is an effort to protect Chinese fishermen, the Ministry said.
A ministry spokeswoman called Tokyo's intentions to apply Japanese domestic law to the case of the Chinese trawler that rammed a Japanese coast guard ship absurd and illegal. The spokeswoman suggested the case could have a serious impact on bilateral relations.
A Japanese coast guard spokeswoman said an inspection of the trawler has begun, as well as an interrogation of the 14 fishermen who were on board. The fishing boat is docked off Ishigaki Island in Okinawa prefecture.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: Japanese commentaries about the event conclude the Chinese trawler deliberately rammed the Coast Guard ships so as to create an incident. The Chinese reaction seems to reinforce that Japanese conclusion rather than refute it, as might have been expected from an emerging regional leader, as the Chinese describe their nation.
The Chinese have responded with increased law enforcement capabilities instead of a statesmanlike appeal to maintain regional stability. The stationing of one or more law enforcement ships in a disputed maritime region of East Asia matches one of several Chinese tactics for asserting China's claims to the South China Sea up to the limits of the territorial seas of Southeast Asian states.
The action is an effort to protect Chinese fishermen, the Ministry said.
A ministry spokeswoman called Tokyo's intentions to apply Japanese domestic law to the case of the Chinese trawler that rammed a Japanese coast guard ship absurd and illegal. The spokeswoman suggested the case could have a serious impact on bilateral relations.
A Japanese coast guard spokeswoman said an inspection of the trawler has begun, as well as an interrogation of the 14 fishermen who were on board. The fishing boat is docked off Ishigaki Island in Okinawa prefecture.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: Japanese commentaries about the event conclude the Chinese trawler deliberately rammed the Coast Guard ships so as to create an incident. The Chinese reaction seems to reinforce that Japanese conclusion rather than refute it, as might have been expected from an emerging regional leader, as the Chinese describe their nation.
The Chinese have responded with increased law enforcement capabilities instead of a statesmanlike appeal to maintain regional stability. The stationing of one or more law enforcement ships in a disputed maritime region of East Asia matches one of several Chinese tactics for asserting China's claims to the South China Sea up to the limits of the territorial seas of Southeast Asian states.
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Regional Update for September 8
Premier Choe Yong Rim of North Korea said 8 September that hastening economic growth as a way to improve living standards is of critical importance for North Korea. Speaking at a national assembly marking the founding of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Choe said the public and the army should work to develop agriculture and light industry, as well as metalwork, electricity, coal and railway infrastructure.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: The premier's public statement is significant for several reasons. First it suggests the 3rd Party Conference has not begun. More importantly, it is the latest manifestation that Kim Jong-il's government has made a major change in strategic priorities in favor of non-military development. Choe's comments are the most explicit to date in directing that the army should support the civilian sectors in promoting general prosperity.
Old hands will recall that Kim Il-sung, President forever, reached the same conclusion in 1993. Kim Jong-il's Father suspended the seven-year national planning system in December 1993 because it failed. He reprioritized national activity as agriculture-- food production, consumer goods for daily living, goods for export and goods to support the armed forces. This order of effort had no precedent in Korean communism. North Koreans were malnourished in danger of starving.
Kim Jong-il, under threat of a military revolt and for his survival, rejected the legacy of his Father and made military production first, from mid-1994. Sixteen years later and facing death, Kim apparently has had an epiphany about the wisdom of his Father. Once again , under Kim's leadership, North Koreans are malnourished in danger of starving.
The elder Kim recognized that the state and the army could not survive unless the people from whom they are drawn and on whom they depend are healthy. Kim Jong-il is late in reaching that insight.
The message for outsiders is the infrastructure that supports the North's military capabilities is hollow. Kim Jong-il's rule has been a waste of time and resources, repeating mistakes his father made. Nevertheless, the North Korean people will never be permitted to draw those conclusions.
The North's media and sympathetic commentaries in Japan ascribe the new priorities to the third son, Kim Jong-eun. That callow youth has not dealt with the entrenched vice marshals and corps commanders of the Korean Peoples Army. Nor has his mentor and regent Chang Song-taek, who is a party aficionado, not a military man.
Thus Readers might expect the 3rd Party Conference to endorse a new set of strategic priorities in which food production is the highest national priority. That does not mean the Army will follow the Party Conference's lead. More later.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: The premier's public statement is significant for several reasons. First it suggests the 3rd Party Conference has not begun. More importantly, it is the latest manifestation that Kim Jong-il's government has made a major change in strategic priorities in favor of non-military development. Choe's comments are the most explicit to date in directing that the army should support the civilian sectors in promoting general prosperity.
Old hands will recall that Kim Il-sung, President forever, reached the same conclusion in 1993. Kim Jong-il's Father suspended the seven-year national planning system in December 1993 because it failed. He reprioritized national activity as agriculture-- food production, consumer goods for daily living, goods for export and goods to support the armed forces. This order of effort had no precedent in Korean communism. North Koreans were malnourished in danger of starving.
Kim Jong-il, under threat of a military revolt and for his survival, rejected the legacy of his Father and made military production first, from mid-1994. Sixteen years later and facing death, Kim apparently has had an epiphany about the wisdom of his Father. Once again , under Kim's leadership, North Koreans are malnourished in danger of starving.
The elder Kim recognized that the state and the army could not survive unless the people from whom they are drawn and on whom they depend are healthy. Kim Jong-il is late in reaching that insight.
The message for outsiders is the infrastructure that supports the North's military capabilities is hollow. Kim Jong-il's rule has been a waste of time and resources, repeating mistakes his father made. Nevertheless, the North Korean people will never be permitted to draw those conclusions.
The North's media and sympathetic commentaries in Japan ascribe the new priorities to the third son, Kim Jong-eun. That callow youth has not dealt with the entrenched vice marshals and corps commanders of the Korean Peoples Army. Nor has his mentor and regent Chang Song-taek, who is a party aficionado, not a military man.
Thus Readers might expect the 3rd Party Conference to endorse a new set of strategic priorities in which food production is the highest national priority. That does not mean the Army will follow the Party Conference's lead. More later.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Regional Update for September 7
China-Burma (Myanmar): China hailed Myanmar as a "friendly neighbor" and warned the world not to meddle in its upcoming election. General Than Shwe, the head of Burma's military junta, arrived in Beijing for a state visit with President Hu Jintao. Than Shwe's visit will last four days during which he will meet all the top officials.
Comments by KGS NightWatch: Today's praise plus warning expose the fundamental difference between the Chinese communist ideas of democracy and those of the West, even taking into account the imperfect nature of Western voting practices. The fact of a vote is important in authoritarian Asian states; they approve of the legitimacy that voting lends authoritarian rule. The idea the outcome might be determined by the electorate, however, is alien to this political philosophy.
Thus the Chinese could with a straight face endorse the already ham-fistedly contrived Burmese elections - what do Burmese generals know about democracy?
In a strategic sense, the Burmese leaders are engaged in a dangerous policing balancing act to retain some freedom of action between India and China. Than Shwe's visit indicates the Burmese junta prefers to tilt towards China more than India.
China-India: Yesterday, 6 September Indian Prime Minister Singh told New Delhi newspaper editors that, ""China would like to have a foothold in South Asia, and we have to reflect on this reality." India had to be aware of this, and also of a "new assertiveness among the Chinese - and it was difficult to tell which way it will go."
Today, 7 September, in an effort to downplay Prime Minister Singh's remarks, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Jiang Yu said China is committed to safeguarding peace and stability in Asia, including South Asia. Jiang said China is one of the important members of Asia, and that seeking common development with it, South Asia and other countries is in the common interest of "all of us."
Comments from KGS NightWatch: Several features of the exchange are worth noting. First the Indians are aware of and are monitoring Chinese inroads in the Indian Ocean region, which they claim as their sphere of influence. Second, the Indians describe this as new assertiveness, a term not yet recognized in Western commentaries. Third, the Chinese attempt to assuage Indian concerns is actually a deliberate challenge in which China claims interests in al South Asia, as well as East Asia.
China-Iran: China's Railways Minister Liu Zhijun will visit Tehran on 12 September to sign a contract between Iran and a Chinese company to build a $2 billion rail link to Iran, according to Iranian Transport Minister Hamid Behbahani. Transport ministers from Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Iran are expected to gather in Dushanbe in October to firm up the deal for a 2,000-kilometer (1,200-mile) route that links China and Iran.
Comments for KGS NightWatch: For more than a decade Chinese leaders have talked about linking Chinese rails with systems in Central Asia at meetings of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Within the past five years, the Chinese have backed their talk with investment.
China has railroad projects in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Burma and now Iran. It has road and pipeline projects in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.
Many of the projects are scheduled to be completed by 2012. Their cumulative effect would be to shift the economic focus of Central Asian states from Moscow to Beijing. The advantage China brings is that the Chinese rails would use standard gauge, making it possible to ship from the Pacific Coast of China to Turkey without changing bogeys or moving containers in order to accommodate different rail gauges.
Until the Chinese projects become operational, all rail traffic from Asia to Europe will continue to rely on Russian gauge railroads and multiple gauge changes in Asia and at the border of European states.
Afghanistan: NATO and Afghan forces hope to clear the Taliban out of Kandahar by the end of November, according to a statement by the commander of international forces in the south of Afghanistan. NATO forces have secured Kandahar city and are now targeting the surrounding districts of Arghandab, Zharai and Panjwai. British Major General Nick Carter said that 15,000 to 17,000 Afghan security forces and 15,000 international troops have numerical superiority over an estimated 1,000 Taliban insurgents in and around the city.
Comments by KGS NightWatch: The only significance of this report it that it is the first open source estimate of the number of Taliban in Kandahar. The force ratio of 30 allied troops for each Taliban continues to favor the Taliban.
Comments by KGS NightWatch: Today's praise plus warning expose the fundamental difference between the Chinese communist ideas of democracy and those of the West, even taking into account the imperfect nature of Western voting practices. The fact of a vote is important in authoritarian Asian states; they approve of the legitimacy that voting lends authoritarian rule. The idea the outcome might be determined by the electorate, however, is alien to this political philosophy.
Thus the Chinese could with a straight face endorse the already ham-fistedly contrived Burmese elections - what do Burmese generals know about democracy?
In a strategic sense, the Burmese leaders are engaged in a dangerous policing balancing act to retain some freedom of action between India and China. Than Shwe's visit indicates the Burmese junta prefers to tilt towards China more than India.
China-India: Yesterday, 6 September Indian Prime Minister Singh told New Delhi newspaper editors that, ""China would like to have a foothold in South Asia, and we have to reflect on this reality." India had to be aware of this, and also of a "new assertiveness among the Chinese - and it was difficult to tell which way it will go."
Today, 7 September, in an effort to downplay Prime Minister Singh's remarks, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Jiang Yu said China is committed to safeguarding peace and stability in Asia, including South Asia. Jiang said China is one of the important members of Asia, and that seeking common development with it, South Asia and other countries is in the common interest of "all of us."
Comments from KGS NightWatch: Several features of the exchange are worth noting. First the Indians are aware of and are monitoring Chinese inroads in the Indian Ocean region, which they claim as their sphere of influence. Second, the Indians describe this as new assertiveness, a term not yet recognized in Western commentaries. Third, the Chinese attempt to assuage Indian concerns is actually a deliberate challenge in which China claims interests in al South Asia, as well as East Asia.
China-Iran: China's Railways Minister Liu Zhijun will visit Tehran on 12 September to sign a contract between Iran and a Chinese company to build a $2 billion rail link to Iran, according to Iranian Transport Minister Hamid Behbahani. Transport ministers from Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Iran are expected to gather in Dushanbe in October to firm up the deal for a 2,000-kilometer (1,200-mile) route that links China and Iran.
Comments for KGS NightWatch: For more than a decade Chinese leaders have talked about linking Chinese rails with systems in Central Asia at meetings of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Within the past five years, the Chinese have backed their talk with investment.
China has railroad projects in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Burma and now Iran. It has road and pipeline projects in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.
Many of the projects are scheduled to be completed by 2012. Their cumulative effect would be to shift the economic focus of Central Asian states from Moscow to Beijing. The advantage China brings is that the Chinese rails would use standard gauge, making it possible to ship from the Pacific Coast of China to Turkey without changing bogeys or moving containers in order to accommodate different rail gauges.
Until the Chinese projects become operational, all rail traffic from Asia to Europe will continue to rely on Russian gauge railroads and multiple gauge changes in Asia and at the border of European states.
Afghanistan: NATO and Afghan forces hope to clear the Taliban out of Kandahar by the end of November, according to a statement by the commander of international forces in the south of Afghanistan. NATO forces have secured Kandahar city and are now targeting the surrounding districts of Arghandab, Zharai and Panjwai. British Major General Nick Carter said that 15,000 to 17,000 Afghan security forces and 15,000 international troops have numerical superiority over an estimated 1,000 Taliban insurgents in and around the city.
Comments by KGS NightWatch: The only significance of this report it that it is the first open source estimate of the number of Taliban in Kandahar. The force ratio of 30 allied troops for each Taliban continues to favor the Taliban.
Monday, September 6, 2010
Regional Update for September 6
South Korea-US: The Allies announced that a typhoon has prompted them to postpone the anti-submarine warfare exercise in the Yellow Sea for safety reasons.
North Korea-South Korea: The Korean Central News Agency said on 6 September that North Korea will release the South Korean fishing boat and its crew which the North captured last month for violating the exclusive economic zone. The announcement described the release as made "from the compatriotic and humanitarian points of view."
Comments from KGS NightWatch: Like the release of the US citizen to former President Carter, this is further confirmation that the North wants no grievances with neighbors and enemies to cast a shadow over the Party Conference - most likely this week - that might be exploited to disrupt it.
North Korea: Party Conference Update. The Party newspaper Rodong Sinmun reported on 6 September that delegates from the Workers' Party are arriving in Pyongyang for the 3rd Party Conference. The leadership has not announced the date the conference begins or how long it will last. Often for security purposes, the North withholds that information for significant internal events until after they have concluded their work.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: More than 1,300 delegates attended the 1966 conference. Accommodation is a significant burden, but delegates will have been arriving most likely for weeks before now. If the Conference has not already begun, it is likely to this week, based on today's announcement.
Kim Chong-il is not likely to designate in public his third son as his successor. Instead he is likely to appoint him to a post that will point to his succession. Kim's brother-in-law and the youth's uncle, Chang Song-taek, has been promoted to party and government positions that supposedly will enable him to act as regent and tutor for Kim Chong-eun, whom Japanese sources say is only 27.
The public appearance of the third son would be a sign that the speculation about his succession to leadership is accurate.
North Korea-South Korea: The Korean Central News Agency said on 6 September that North Korea will release the South Korean fishing boat and its crew which the North captured last month for violating the exclusive economic zone. The announcement described the release as made "from the compatriotic and humanitarian points of view."
Comments from KGS NightWatch: Like the release of the US citizen to former President Carter, this is further confirmation that the North wants no grievances with neighbors and enemies to cast a shadow over the Party Conference - most likely this week - that might be exploited to disrupt it.
North Korea: Party Conference Update. The Party newspaper Rodong Sinmun reported on 6 September that delegates from the Workers' Party are arriving in Pyongyang for the 3rd Party Conference. The leadership has not announced the date the conference begins or how long it will last. Often for security purposes, the North withholds that information for significant internal events until after they have concluded their work.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: More than 1,300 delegates attended the 1966 conference. Accommodation is a significant burden, but delegates will have been arriving most likely for weeks before now. If the Conference has not already begun, it is likely to this week, based on today's announcement.
Kim Chong-il is not likely to designate in public his third son as his successor. Instead he is likely to appoint him to a post that will point to his succession. Kim's brother-in-law and the youth's uncle, Chang Song-taek, has been promoted to party and government positions that supposedly will enable him to act as regent and tutor for Kim Chong-eun, whom Japanese sources say is only 27.
The public appearance of the third son would be a sign that the speculation about his succession to leadership is accurate.
Sunday, September 5, 2010
China and North Korea agrees to Open a New Container Shipping Route
* Article from Asahi Shimbun *
N. Korea, China eye shipping route
By Daisuke Nishimura
September 6, 2010 (Japan Standard Time)
China and North Korea have agreed to open a container shipping route from the North's Rason special economic zone, sources close to the Hunchun-based shipping company involved in the deal said. Hunchun is on China's border with Russia and North Korea.
The agreement was reached during the Northeast Asia Investment and Trade Expo, which runs until Monday in Changchun, China.
The new route, which starts at Rajin in North Korea, is expected to open by the end of December at the earliest, the sources said.
It is expected to handle about 300,000 tons of cargo annually, they said.
The envisioned route will link Rajin with foreign ports, such as Busan, but will be limited at its startup. It will begin shipping products into China from Europe and the United States via China's Qingdao.
Cooperation between China and North Korea has accelerated in the northeast amid heavy international sanctions levied against North Korea after the sinking of a South Korean warship in March.
In the Tumenjiang river area, other projects are also under way, including repairs to a cross-border bridge in Hunchun.
A private company based in Dalian, Liaoning province, is working to develop a pier at Rajin port. And sources said a company in Jilin province has acquired the right to use a pier at North Korea's Chongjin port, to the south of Rajin.
In a forum at the trade expo, North Korea's vice trade minister expressed hope that his country could make Rason into "a base for world-class processing trade and intermediate trade."
Meanwhile, China's inland Jilin province aims to secure sea routes to the Sea of Japan via North Korea's Rajin and Chongjin ports.
The Chinese government last year designated the Tumenjiang river area, which includes the Yanbian autonomous prefecture, Jilin and Changchun, as a pilot development zone.
N. Korea, China eye shipping route
By Daisuke Nishimura
September 6, 2010 (Japan Standard Time)
China and North Korea have agreed to open a container shipping route from the North's Rason special economic zone, sources close to the Hunchun-based shipping company involved in the deal said. Hunchun is on China's border with Russia and North Korea.
The agreement was reached during the Northeast Asia Investment and Trade Expo, which runs until Monday in Changchun, China.
The new route, which starts at Rajin in North Korea, is expected to open by the end of December at the earliest, the sources said.
It is expected to handle about 300,000 tons of cargo annually, they said.
The envisioned route will link Rajin with foreign ports, such as Busan, but will be limited at its startup. It will begin shipping products into China from Europe and the United States via China's Qingdao.
Cooperation between China and North Korea has accelerated in the northeast amid heavy international sanctions levied against North Korea after the sinking of a South Korean warship in March.
In the Tumenjiang river area, other projects are also under way, including repairs to a cross-border bridge in Hunchun.
A private company based in Dalian, Liaoning province, is working to develop a pier at Rajin port. And sources said a company in Jilin province has acquired the right to use a pier at North Korea's Chongjin port, to the south of Rajin.
In a forum at the trade expo, North Korea's vice trade minister expressed hope that his country could make Rason into "a base for world-class processing trade and intermediate trade."
Meanwhile, China's inland Jilin province aims to secure sea routes to the Sea of Japan via North Korea's Rajin and Chongjin ports.
The Chinese government last year designated the Tumenjiang river area, which includes the Yanbian autonomous prefecture, Jilin and Changchun, as a pilot development zone.
Friday, September 3, 2010
Regional Update for September 3
South Korea-US: Update. US Forces Korea today confirmed that South Korea and the United States will hold anti-submarine warfare exercises from 5 to 9 September in the Yellow Sea. The statement said the exercises will send a message of deterrence to North Korea, while improving Allied anti-submarine warfare capabilities. Ten ships will participate including the two U.S. guided-missile destroyers, USS Curtis Wilbur and USS Fitzgerald, and a fast-attack U.S. submarine.
South Korea's Joint Staff announced the South will contribute four destroyers, a submarine, high-speed frigates and P-3C aircraft to practice techniques to cope with infiltration by enemy submarines.
Comment: As of 3 September, neither China nor North Korea has commented in response.
India- South Korea: In Seoul, today, Indian Defence Minister Antony and South Korean National Defense Minister Kim approved two memoranda of understanding that will strengthen force cooperation and defense industrial collaboration under the India-South Korea Defence Agreement.
The first memorandum of understanding (MoU) covers sharing of military expertise; exchanges of visits by military personnel and experts in defense services; education and training, and conduct of military exercises, as well as joint visits by ships and aircraft. It also includes cooperation in humanitarian assistance and international peacekeeping.
The second MoU is far reaching, aimed at identifying futuristic defense technology research and development for co-development and co-production of defense products.
Defence Minister Antony remarked that "We live in a troubled neighborhood. Some call it a fragile region. We have to maintain balance and restraint even in the face of grave challenges to our security."
Comment from KGS NightWatch: This was a high powered delegation that included senior officers from the armed services and from the defense research establishment. The Indians came to create an architecture for doing business and their timing could not have been better.
Serendipitously, the Indian delegation is in Seoul coincident with a powerful Chinese military region commander's visit to Pyongyang as a follow-up to Kim Jong-il's secretive China visit. The Indian visit also almost coincides with the start of the US-South Korean naval exercises in the Yellow Sea.
India-China: India conveyed its concerns to China on 3 September about an increase in the Chinese troop presence and activities in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Embassy officials said Indian Ambassador to China S. Jaishankar met China's Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Zhang Zhijun in Beijing to discuss India's concerns.
India news papers quoted government sources that 11,000 Chinese have been detected in the Pakistan-controlled section of western Kashmir
In response to the Indian demarche, the Chinese said the soldiers were assisting with flood relief without further explanation.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: The Indian press indicates China stonewalled India on this and several other issues, especially those related to Kashmir. While not confirmed, the size of the Chinese contingent equals that of an infantry division. The location could be east of Islamabad … if confirmed. Earlier press reports indicated the Chinese troops were providing security for railroad construction, but the Chinese did not confirm those reports.
China appears to be dropping the nuances in its policy actions of the past ten years as to disputed regions of Asia. In doing so, it is siding openly and unequivocally with longstanding allies. This explains China's open embrace of Kim Jong-il, which matches its equally open tilt to Pakistan on the issue of Kashmir.
China is asserting itself as the Asian hegemon from Northeast Asia, through Southeast Asia to Southwest Asia. This is a strategic challenge to the interests of the US, its allies and friends.
Pakistan: Pakistani Taliban again claimed responsibility for killing at least 43 people and injuring 78 others in a suicide blast at a Shiite procession in Quetta, Pakistan, according to police chief Ghulam Shabir Sheikh. The occasion of the march is al Quds Day, which is an annual protest in solidarity with the Palestinians and to condemn Israel. Al Quds is the Muslim name for the city Jerusalem.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: Pakistani Sunni terrorists evidently will not tolerate Pakistani Shiites protesting in support of Sunni causes, namely, the Palestinians. The plight of the Palestinians has no relevance to the goals of the Pakistani Taliban which include creation of a Pakistani Islamic emirate based in Islamabad.
South Korea's Joint Staff announced the South will contribute four destroyers, a submarine, high-speed frigates and P-3C aircraft to practice techniques to cope with infiltration by enemy submarines.
Comment: As of 3 September, neither China nor North Korea has commented in response.
India- South Korea: In Seoul, today, Indian Defence Minister Antony and South Korean National Defense Minister Kim approved two memoranda of understanding that will strengthen force cooperation and defense industrial collaboration under the India-South Korea Defence Agreement.
The first memorandum of understanding (MoU) covers sharing of military expertise; exchanges of visits by military personnel and experts in defense services; education and training, and conduct of military exercises, as well as joint visits by ships and aircraft. It also includes cooperation in humanitarian assistance and international peacekeeping.
The second MoU is far reaching, aimed at identifying futuristic defense technology research and development for co-development and co-production of defense products.
Defence Minister Antony remarked that "We live in a troubled neighborhood. Some call it a fragile region. We have to maintain balance and restraint even in the face of grave challenges to our security."
Comment from KGS NightWatch: This was a high powered delegation that included senior officers from the armed services and from the defense research establishment. The Indians came to create an architecture for doing business and their timing could not have been better.
Serendipitously, the Indian delegation is in Seoul coincident with a powerful Chinese military region commander's visit to Pyongyang as a follow-up to Kim Jong-il's secretive China visit. The Indian visit also almost coincides with the start of the US-South Korean naval exercises in the Yellow Sea.
India-China: India conveyed its concerns to China on 3 September about an increase in the Chinese troop presence and activities in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Embassy officials said Indian Ambassador to China S. Jaishankar met China's Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Zhang Zhijun in Beijing to discuss India's concerns.
India news papers quoted government sources that 11,000 Chinese have been detected in the Pakistan-controlled section of western Kashmir
In response to the Indian demarche, the Chinese said the soldiers were assisting with flood relief without further explanation.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: The Indian press indicates China stonewalled India on this and several other issues, especially those related to Kashmir. While not confirmed, the size of the Chinese contingent equals that of an infantry division. The location could be east of Islamabad … if confirmed. Earlier press reports indicated the Chinese troops were providing security for railroad construction, but the Chinese did not confirm those reports.
China appears to be dropping the nuances in its policy actions of the past ten years as to disputed regions of Asia. In doing so, it is siding openly and unequivocally with longstanding allies. This explains China's open embrace of Kim Jong-il, which matches its equally open tilt to Pakistan on the issue of Kashmir.
China is asserting itself as the Asian hegemon from Northeast Asia, through Southeast Asia to Southwest Asia. This is a strategic challenge to the interests of the US, its allies and friends.
Pakistan: Pakistani Taliban again claimed responsibility for killing at least 43 people and injuring 78 others in a suicide blast at a Shiite procession in Quetta, Pakistan, according to police chief Ghulam Shabir Sheikh. The occasion of the march is al Quds Day, which is an annual protest in solidarity with the Palestinians and to condemn Israel. Al Quds is the Muslim name for the city Jerusalem.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: Pakistani Sunni terrorists evidently will not tolerate Pakistani Shiites protesting in support of Sunni causes, namely, the Palestinians. The plight of the Palestinians has no relevance to the goals of the Pakistani Taliban which include creation of a Pakistani Islamic emirate based in Islamabad.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Regional Update for September 1
Japan-China-North Korea: Update. Japan rejected North Korea's apparent interest in a quick resumption of six-party talks on Pyongyang's nuclear program, saying Tuesday that the time was not right for fresh discussions.
In a meeting Tuesday, 31 August, with China's nuclear envoy, Wu Dawei, Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada said conditions for talks were not right.
"As South Korea is dealing with the sinking of its warship, it is still too early to resume the six-party talks," Okada was quoted as telling Wu, according to a statement from the ministry.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: Japan's stand with South Korea to hold North Korea accountable for the sinking of the Cheonan contrasts sharply with the US and China movement to resume talks quickly, regardless of the North's act of war in sinking the patrol ship. Japan appears to be supporting South Korea whose leaders also think the time is not appropriate for nuclear talks.
Some Western commentators and officials have raised unrealistic expectations about the likelihood of nuclear talks. North Korea is preparing for the 3rd Party Conference, not talks. Kim's language about talks is not in the published remarks during his China visit.
The point is the North's pool of skilled managers is too small to manage simultaneously a Party Conference and nuclear talks probably through mid-September. The Party Conference is far more important to them than nuclear talks.
The Chinese appear to be the only source of the statements attributed to Kim that he wanted an early resumption of talks. They appear to have been crafted to placate the US while North Korea tends to succession business.
North Korea-China: Leaders from North Korea and China said the countries' military relations would be strengthened, Xinhua reported on 1 September. President of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly Kim Yong-nam met a delegation from the Shenyang Military Region in northeastern China at the Mansudae Assembly Hall to discuss military issues today.
Lieutenant General Zhang Youxia, head of the Chinese delegation and Commander of the Shenyang Military Region which abuts North Korea, said the China-North Korean relationship will be consolidated. He also said the Shenyang Military Region will make active efforts to further develop bilateral military exchanges and cooperation.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: The anomaly in the public announcement is that a Chinese military region commander was received by the official President of North Korea, not the Chief of the General Staff or any of the North Korean corps commanders opposite Shenyang Military Region.
General Zhang's visit is not likely a coincidence, occurring two days after Kim Chong-il visited General Zhang's military region. The visit looks like a follow-up to Kim's for the purpose of implementing agreements reached in China, such as coordination of military plans in the event of a crisis in Pyongyang. As a region commander, Zhang's involvement signifies operational and tactical details were discussed … details of execution rather than formulation of strategy.
China has a friendship treaty with North Korea which most old hands suspect includes a provision for Chinese forces to enter North Korea to preserve the communist regime during an emergency. Zhang's visit suggests he, as the responsible theater commander, is inspecting a likely future area of operations.
Introduction of Chinese forces for any purpose, even to save the Kim family regime, would require extensive operational and tactical coordination, establishment of deconfliction procedures and many other forms of cooperation with some of the most powerful North Korean army units, which guard the highway from China to Pyongyang.
China: The Chinese news agency reported China launched routine, annual naval training exercises in the Yellow Sea on 1 September. The Beihai fleet of the navy of the People's Liberation Army is to perform live ammunition firing training in waters off the east coast near Qingdao through the 4th.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: The Chinese live firing practice will not affect in any way the Allied anti-submarine exercises on the other side of the Yellow Sea near North Korea.
In a meeting Tuesday, 31 August, with China's nuclear envoy, Wu Dawei, Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada said conditions for talks were not right.
"As South Korea is dealing with the sinking of its warship, it is still too early to resume the six-party talks," Okada was quoted as telling Wu, according to a statement from the ministry.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: Japan's stand with South Korea to hold North Korea accountable for the sinking of the Cheonan contrasts sharply with the US and China movement to resume talks quickly, regardless of the North's act of war in sinking the patrol ship. Japan appears to be supporting South Korea whose leaders also think the time is not appropriate for nuclear talks.
Some Western commentators and officials have raised unrealistic expectations about the likelihood of nuclear talks. North Korea is preparing for the 3rd Party Conference, not talks. Kim's language about talks is not in the published remarks during his China visit.
The point is the North's pool of skilled managers is too small to manage simultaneously a Party Conference and nuclear talks probably through mid-September. The Party Conference is far more important to them than nuclear talks.
The Chinese appear to be the only source of the statements attributed to Kim that he wanted an early resumption of talks. They appear to have been crafted to placate the US while North Korea tends to succession business.
North Korea-China: Leaders from North Korea and China said the countries' military relations would be strengthened, Xinhua reported on 1 September. President of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly Kim Yong-nam met a delegation from the Shenyang Military Region in northeastern China at the Mansudae Assembly Hall to discuss military issues today.
Lieutenant General Zhang Youxia, head of the Chinese delegation and Commander of the Shenyang Military Region which abuts North Korea, said the China-North Korean relationship will be consolidated. He also said the Shenyang Military Region will make active efforts to further develop bilateral military exchanges and cooperation.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: The anomaly in the public announcement is that a Chinese military region commander was received by the official President of North Korea, not the Chief of the General Staff or any of the North Korean corps commanders opposite Shenyang Military Region.
General Zhang's visit is not likely a coincidence, occurring two days after Kim Chong-il visited General Zhang's military region. The visit looks like a follow-up to Kim's for the purpose of implementing agreements reached in China, such as coordination of military plans in the event of a crisis in Pyongyang. As a region commander, Zhang's involvement signifies operational and tactical details were discussed … details of execution rather than formulation of strategy.
China has a friendship treaty with North Korea which most old hands suspect includes a provision for Chinese forces to enter North Korea to preserve the communist regime during an emergency. Zhang's visit suggests he, as the responsible theater commander, is inspecting a likely future area of operations.
Introduction of Chinese forces for any purpose, even to save the Kim family regime, would require extensive operational and tactical coordination, establishment of deconfliction procedures and many other forms of cooperation with some of the most powerful North Korean army units, which guard the highway from China to Pyongyang.
China: The Chinese news agency reported China launched routine, annual naval training exercises in the Yellow Sea on 1 September. The Beihai fleet of the navy of the People's Liberation Army is to perform live ammunition firing training in waters off the east coast near Qingdao through the 4th.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: The Chinese live firing practice will not affect in any way the Allied anti-submarine exercises on the other side of the Yellow Sea near North Korea.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
From Our Friends at KSG NightWatch: For the Night of 30 August
* Contents below are entirely from our friends at KGS NightWatch:
Comments from KGS NightWatch: On 30 August, Chinese and North Korean media confirmed Kim's visit to China and carried limited details about it. As is the custom, the communist media confirmed the visit only after Kim was back safely in Pyongyang.
In a dinner speech for Chinese President Hu, Kim described his visit in terms of a pilgrimage that his late father, President Forever Kim Il Sung, always intended to make but never did. Kim said, in part, "Permeated in Jilin and Heilongjiang Provinces (of China) are immortal footprints of the bloody anti-Japanese revolutionary struggle President Comrade Kim Il Sung waged with Chinese comrades from early on. As such, they are unforgettable lands of history which are cherished dearly in the hearts of our people; they are also witnesses of the North Korea-China friendship.
"When he was alive, President Comrade Kim Il Sung would never forget this eventful Northeastern region and, reminiscing on it, would say that he would be back here for sure. We have come today, embracing his wish.
The other distinctive feature of the North Korean media description of the visit is the use of communist cult language to explain every Chinese accomplishment. Everything Kim observed and all his interactions were described as the result of communist and socialist wisdom and planning. Kim repeatedly paid tribute to Chinese communism, as if to applaud the Chinese for swindling the successful modern systems in the world. He ignored that China began to progress by abandoning communist economics where it could and by copying capitalist , free market enterprise.
The international media described the visit as rich in policy implications, highlighting Kim's so-called desire for an early resumption of nuclear talks. Actually, Kim's public statements indicate he said there was no change in the North's desire for early nuclear talks. "No change" means the North continues to condition talks on acceptance of the North as a nuclear armed power.
As for other issues, the pervasive theme in the press statements is easing of tension. The North is not at all interested in talks soon. All in all, the visit looks like a Confucian farewell, performing last rites for unfinished family business. - KGS NightWatch
Comments from KGS NightWatch: On 30 August, Chinese and North Korean media confirmed Kim's visit to China and carried limited details about it. As is the custom, the communist media confirmed the visit only after Kim was back safely in Pyongyang.
In a dinner speech for Chinese President Hu, Kim described his visit in terms of a pilgrimage that his late father, President Forever Kim Il Sung, always intended to make but never did. Kim said, in part, "Permeated in Jilin and Heilongjiang Provinces (of China) are immortal footprints of the bloody anti-Japanese revolutionary struggle President Comrade Kim Il Sung waged with Chinese comrades from early on. As such, they are unforgettable lands of history which are cherished dearly in the hearts of our people; they are also witnesses of the North Korea-China friendship.
"When he was alive, President Comrade Kim Il Sung would never forget this eventful Northeastern region and, reminiscing on it, would say that he would be back here for sure. We have come today, embracing his wish.
The other distinctive feature of the North Korean media description of the visit is the use of communist cult language to explain every Chinese accomplishment. Everything Kim observed and all his interactions were described as the result of communist and socialist wisdom and planning. Kim repeatedly paid tribute to Chinese communism, as if to applaud the Chinese for swindling the successful modern systems in the world. He ignored that China began to progress by abandoning communist economics where it could and by copying capitalist , free market enterprise.
The international media described the visit as rich in policy implications, highlighting Kim's so-called desire for an early resumption of nuclear talks. Actually, Kim's public statements indicate he said there was no change in the North's desire for early nuclear talks. "No change" means the North continues to condition talks on acceptance of the North as a nuclear armed power.
As for other issues, the pervasive theme in the press statements is easing of tension. The North is not at all interested in talks soon. All in all, the visit looks like a Confucian farewell, performing last rites for unfinished family business. - KGS NightWatch
Monday, August 30, 2010
From Our Friends at KSG NightWatch: For the Night of 29 August
* Contents below are entirely from our friends at KSG NightWatch:
North Korea-China: North Korean Leader Kim Jong-il remained in northeast China on 29 August visiting the city of Harbin. Initial news reports asserted Kim's train was bound for Pyongyang. Instead, The train left Changchun, the capital of Jilin Province, which borders North Korea, the evening of the 28th and went south to Harbin to visit a plant.
Comment: The proximity of this visit to the Party general meeting in early September is the basis for the inference that Kim's visit is related to the process of introducing his third son to the Chinese leadership and showing him around and off.
The visit appears too short to have moved other outstanding issues, including flood relief along the Yalu and the Six Party Talks. The brevity and location of the visit to Chinese areas near North Korea support those analyses that the visit also served the strategic goal of quieting the international environment before and during the Party plenum.
One commentary assessed that also was the primary aim in the North's handling in such low key fashion former President Carter's visit to obtain the release of the captive American. Aside from Six Party talks, there are now no potentially disruptive issues between the US and North Korea, such as an American in a North Korean jail.
These assessments imply that for the next two weeks, tension should ease and provocations are unlikely. However, the North may be expected to respond in prickly fashion to any actions by the US or South Korea that it perceives as a provocation, just to show that its inward focus does not signify weakness or inability to respond swiftly. China will be in overwatch position. The message from North Korea is, "leave us alone." - KGS NightWatch
China-Burma (Myanmar): Xinhua News Agency
(the official news agency for the PRC) reported two Chinese navy ships from the 5th Escort Task Group, the Caohu and Guanhzhou, called at Myanmar's Thilawa Port on 29 August. The visit is to last five days to promote "good" relations.
Comment: This is the first time Chinese naval ships have called at a port in Burma. It also is a direct challenge to Indian naval dominance of the Indian Ocean region. - KGS NightWatch
North Korea-China: North Korean Leader Kim Jong-il remained in northeast China on 29 August visiting the city of Harbin. Initial news reports asserted Kim's train was bound for Pyongyang. Instead, The train left Changchun, the capital of Jilin Province, which borders North Korea, the evening of the 28th and went south to Harbin to visit a plant.
The Japanese media reported hotel closures and tightened security at the Dandong border crossing site, the usual signs that North Korean leadership train's arrival is expected.
Comment: The proximity of this visit to the Party general meeting in early September is the basis for the inference that Kim's visit is related to the process of introducing his third son to the Chinese leadership and showing him around and off.
The visit appears too short to have moved other outstanding issues, including flood relief along the Yalu and the Six Party Talks. The brevity and location of the visit to Chinese areas near North Korea support those analyses that the visit also served the strategic goal of quieting the international environment before and during the Party plenum.
One commentary assessed that also was the primary aim in the North's handling in such low key fashion former President Carter's visit to obtain the release of the captive American. Aside from Six Party talks, there are now no potentially disruptive issues between the US and North Korea, such as an American in a North Korean jail.
The trip to China during the Carter visit also conveys a clear statement of North Korean foreign policy priorities. China is more important than the US.
These assessments imply that for the next two weeks, tension should ease and provocations are unlikely. However, the North may be expected to respond in prickly fashion to any actions by the US or South Korea that it perceives as a provocation, just to show that its inward focus does not signify weakness or inability to respond swiftly. China will be in overwatch position. The message from North Korea is, "leave us alone." - KGS NightWatchComment from the Author: Xinhua News Agency's English site posted a report on the Chinese president Hu Jintao's meeting with Kim Jong-il on Friday, 27 August, at 7:19 PM on 30 August, Beijing Time - which would make it 7:19AM on 30 August, Eastern Time.
China-Burma (Myanmar): Xinhua News Agency
(the official news agency for the PRC) reported two Chinese navy ships from the 5th Escort Task Group, the Caohu and Guanhzhou, called at Myanmar's Thilawa Port on 29 August. The visit is to last five days to promote "good" relations.Comment: This is the first time Chinese naval ships have called at a port in Burma. It also is a direct challenge to Indian naval dominance of the Indian Ocean region. - KGS NightWatch
Friday, August 27, 2010
Carter and Aijalon Gomes Arrive in Boston
By Hwang Doo-hyong of Yonhap News Agency from Washington, D.C.
Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter returned home Friday with an American held in North Korea for seven months for trespassing, reports said.
A private charter flight carrying Carter, Aijalon Gomes and their entourage arrived at Logan International Airport in Boston, the hometown of Gomes, who was sentenced in May to eight years in a labor and re-education camp and fined US$700,000 for illegal entry in January.
Carter flew into Pyongyang Wednesday [25 August] on a private mission to secure Gomes' release. His very presence in Pyongyang was seen as a thaw in U.S. relations with North Korea, which had been chilly since North Korea's torpedoeing of a South Korean warship in March.
However, the former U.S. president apparently did not meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. who abruptly left for China as Carter flew to Pyongyang.
Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter returned home Friday with an American held in North Korea for seven months for trespassing, reports said.
A private charter flight carrying Carter, Aijalon Gomes and their entourage arrived at Logan International Airport in Boston, the hometown of Gomes, who was sentenced in May to eight years in a labor and re-education camp and fined US$700,000 for illegal entry in January.
Carter flew into Pyongyang Wednesday [25 August] on a private mission to secure Gomes' release. His very presence in Pyongyang was seen as a thaw in U.S. relations with North Korea, which had been chilly since North Korea's torpedoeing of a South Korean warship in March.
However, the former U.S. president apparently did not meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. who abruptly left for China as Carter flew to Pyongyang.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
From Our Friends at KGS NightWatch: For Night of 25 August 2010
*Contents below are entirely from our friends at KSG NightWatch:
South Korean National Defense Ministry sources divulged that the North Koreans have staged a buildup of military units near Pyongyang since mid-July. "Preparation for a massive national event is under way" in North Korea and the move presumably is related to the third ever Workers' Party plenum in September and the 65th anniversary of the party's founding on 10 October, according to a report submitted to a parliamentary committee today.
Comment: North Korean military choreographers routinely require 90 to 120 days to prepare for a major military demonstration. The mid-July start of preparations is consistent with past preparations for a large scale parade on 10 October. The anniversary of the founding of the Korean Workers' Party usually features a parade.
The Workers' Party plenary meeting in September will not be the occasion for a large parade because these meetings are infrequent and North Korean parades celebrate great events in the past. The South Korean reports suggest the October celebration will be unusually large, implying it might have some connection to a succession event decided at the September meeting. - KGS NightWatch
South Korean National Defense Ministry sources divulged that the North Koreans have staged a buildup of military units near Pyongyang since mid-July. "Preparation for a massive national event is under way" in North Korea and the move presumably is related to the third ever Workers' Party plenum in September and the 65th anniversary of the party's founding on 10 October, according to a report submitted to a parliamentary committee today.
Comment: North Korean military choreographers routinely require 90 to 120 days to prepare for a major military demonstration. The mid-July start of preparations is consistent with past preparations for a large scale parade on 10 October. The anniversary of the founding of the Korean Workers' Party usually features a parade.
The Workers' Party plenary meeting in September will not be the occasion for a large parade because these meetings are infrequent and North Korean parades celebrate great events in the past. The South Korean reports suggest the October celebration will be unusually large, implying it might have some connection to a succession event decided at the September meeting. - KGS NightWatch
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
From Our Friends at KSG NightWatch
*Contents below are entirely from our friends at KSG NightWatch:
South Korea - North Korea: South Korean National Defense Minister Kim Tae Young said on 24 August that his troops are now allowed to respond immediately in the event North Korean shelling impacts on land south of the maritime border off the west coast.
South Korean troops previously were banned from firing back north of the Northern Limit Line if the North did not stop firing after warnings, even if shells landed on the South's side. Minister Kim said South Korea will give the North advance warning.
Comment : This represents an official authorization for more aggressive rules of engagement. The South has decided it will not be bullied by the North even if the new rules of engagement put other issues at risk, such as resumption of nuclear talks.
The historic record shows that the South's approach is much more likely to be productive than the alternative. North Koreans respect power, though they will test it to decide whether it is power or bluff. There will be artillery exchanges off the west coast this fall. - KSG NightWatch
North Korea-US: Former US President Carter will depart soon for North Korea on a private mission to free US citizen Aijalon Mahli Gomes who has been imprisoned after crossing illegally from China.
Comment: The North Koreans will welcome President Carter warmly because he is the only American President to have held discussions with the late President Kim Il-sung. Carter would not go were a warm welcome and high likelihood of success not in prospect.
The details of the North Korean welcome -- whether he meets Kim Chong-il and/or Chang Song-taek, for example - plus the success of his rescue mission will provide insights into the stability and confidence of the North Korean leadership and the prospects for Six Party talks. - KSG NightWatch
South Korea - North Korea: South Korean National Defense Minister Kim Tae Young said on 24 August that his troops are now allowed to respond immediately in the event North Korean shelling impacts on land south of the maritime border off the west coast.
South Korean troops previously were banned from firing back north of the Northern Limit Line if the North did not stop firing after warnings, even if shells landed on the South's side. Minister Kim said South Korea will give the North advance warning.
Comment : This represents an official authorization for more aggressive rules of engagement. The South has decided it will not be bullied by the North even if the new rules of engagement put other issues at risk, such as resumption of nuclear talks.
The historic record shows that the South's approach is much more likely to be productive than the alternative. North Koreans respect power, though they will test it to decide whether it is power or bluff. There will be artillery exchanges off the west coast this fall. - KSG NightWatch
North Korea-US: Former US President Carter will depart soon for North Korea on a private mission to free US citizen Aijalon Mahli Gomes who has been imprisoned after crossing illegally from China.
Comment: The North Koreans will welcome President Carter warmly because he is the only American President to have held discussions with the late President Kim Il-sung. Carter would not go were a warm welcome and high likelihood of success not in prospect.
The details of the North Korean welcome -- whether he meets Kim Chong-il and/or Chang Song-taek, for example - plus the success of his rescue mission will provide insights into the stability and confidence of the North Korean leadership and the prospects for Six Party talks. - KSG NightWatch
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