In and around North Korea: 7 - 13 November 2008

• South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reported on 08 Nov that NK has slowed its nuclear disablement work at Yongbyon Nuclear Facility to a “snail’s pace”, removing only 15 fuel rods per day (down from 30 per day in the past). NK said it reduced its pace recently because shipments of energy aid were slow in coming. On a separate report, from Kyodo News, a US government source stated on 10 Nov that the US plans to provide 50,000 tons of heavy fuel oil to NK by the end of this month although it is Russia's turn to provide the energy aid. The US source told Kyodo News that the sequencing is no longer important and that US heavy fuel oil may be arriving in NK faster than Russia's. On 12 Nov, Deputy US Department of State Spokesman Robert Wood stated during the daily press briefing that the US has shipped 500,000 metric tons of heavy fuel oil to North Korea on two different shipments, which will arrive in North Korea in late November and early December 2008. (Last week, the US provided the NK with 50,000 metric tons of heavy fuel oil. As of today, China, the Republic of Korea, Russia, and the United States have provided a total of approximately 500,000 tons of energy assistance. This includes heavy fuel oil and non-heavy fuel oil equivalent energy assistance.)

• North Korea denied Washington's announcement that it agreed to allow its partners in the 6PT to take samples to verify its nuclear declaration. “The North has never agreed on sampling, but only allowing inspectors to access its nuclear facilities, discuss documents on its atomic program and interview people related to the nuclear plans, the country's foreign ministry said in a statement.” On 12 Nov, Deputy Department of States Spokesman Robert Wood stated NK had agreed last month that experts could take samples and remove them from the country for testing during the daily press briefing.

• The South Korean Foreign Minister said on 07 Nov the next meeting of the 6PT may be held in early December, not in November as expected. Major diplomatic events already scheduled for Nov (such as APEC, global financial summit, and The Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue) and China’s expression that it is not ready for the next round of talks may push the 6PT to early December.

• South Korea’s No. 2 nuclear negotiator met with Frank Jannuzi, a Korea policy adviser for the US president-elect, to discuss the NK nuclear issue. A government official said a broad range of issues were covered, with both parties seeing eye to eye on their basic position on the North. Although it's not certain what post Jannuzi will be given in the incoming administration, government officials say he seems to have a very similar view on NK policy to the ROK’s, especially that the nuclear issue must be solved through the six-party framework.

• In a commentary carried on 12 Nov by NK’s official Rodong Sinmun daily newspaper, it stated “The US nuclear commitments to Japan and the ROK made the prospect of settling the nuclear issue on the Korean peninsula dimmer.” It also blasted the US defense secretary's remarks of providing Japan and the ROK with a nuclear umbrella and upgrading of nuclear weapons. It said the North’s development of nuclear weapons was a response to the US nuclear threat. "It is the invariable stand and principle of action of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) to react to confrontation with confrontation and respond to dialogue with dialogue," the commentary said.

• Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki arrived in Pyongyang on 12 Nov on the second leg of his Asian tour. Heading a high-ranking delegation for his one-day visit, Mottaki exchanged views over important regional and international issues, though no specifics of the meeting were released.

• The ROK called for Iran to step up efforts to allay international concerns about its nuclear program. Iran’s Foreign Minister arrived in Seoul on 13 Nov for a one-day stay after visiting Pyongyang, where he met with NK Foreign Minister Pak Ui-chun and NK’s number two leader, Kim Yong-nam. The ROK Foreign Minister did not provide details on whether the two sides discussed Pyongyang's stance on the troubled denuclearization process, but added “The Iranian foreign minister stressed that his country is pushing for a nuclear program for peaceful purposes."

• The Japanese TBS Television aired on 10 Nov that a US intelligence official in South Korea stated that the US has obtained information Kim Jong-il had suffered a second stroke sometime in Oct, which disabled his left arm and leg and affected his speech. The French neurosurgeon’s visit to Pyongyang from Paris, via Beijing, matches the timing of the apparent second stroke. The ROK’s Ministry of Unification refused to comment on the report while the National Intelligence Service rejected the Japanese report.

• The British The Times reported on 07 Nov that there were growing suspicions that recently released photographs of Kim Jong-il by NK authorities may have been a result of digital trickery, citing differently-angled shadows and mismatching pixels. However, the French AFP reported that according to a ROK National Intelligence Service spokesman and a Unification Ministry spokesman, the latest photographs, released on 05 Nov, were believed to be genuine and that there was no evidence to suggest the photographs were doctored.

• A Senior Researcher at the Institute for National Security Strategy said “Jang Sung Taek, Kim Jong-il’s brother-in-law, was in charge of the Ministry of Administration of the Korean Workers’ Party as Director, but he had not gained control of the military. However, if he has risen to the position of controlling the military as the First-Vice-Director of the Guidance Department, then he can be seen as the second most powerful figure in NK. Kim Jong-il is said to have temporarily endowed him with the authority of second-in-command, in charge of managing domestic and international crises.

• A report on world population has demonstrated the wide social and economic gaps between South and North Korea. According to the report released by the United Nations Population Fund and the Planned Population Federation of Korea on 12 Nov, the two Koreas showed the biggest discrepancy in the area of welfare. The report revealed the ROK’s infant mortality rate is lower than N’s and South Koreans live longer than their counterparts in the north.

• NK reported on 12 Nov that it officially informed South Korea that the Korean People’s Army will “strictly restrict and cut off” all the overland passages through the Military Demarcation Line on 01 Dec, citing the ROK’s failure to stop the release of propaganda leaflets into the north and its failure to adhere to the 2000 and 2007 agreements (declarations on eventual peaceful unification, confidence-building measures, economic cooperation, and a permanent peace mechanism). The report further stated “The south Korean puppet authorities should never forget that the present inter-Korean relations are at the crucial crossroads of existence and total severance.” The ROK on 13 Nov urged NK to engage in dialogue, one day after the north announced it would shut down all overland passages across the border. Seoul's call for talks came from the Defense Ministry in a one-page reply to the North's message, expressing the government's deep regret over Pyongyang's threat to close the border from the beginning of next month.

• CEOs of the ROK businesses at the inter-Korean industrial complex in the NK city of Kaesong (Gaeseong) met with the ROK Unification Minister Kim Ha-joong on 13 Nov to discuss operations at the industrial site. They reportedly asked the ministry to persuade civic organizations to stop dropping leaflets on NK.

• NK announced on 12 Nov it was closing its Red Cross liaison office and all direct telephone links at the truce village of Panmunjom in retaliation against Seoul's "confrontational" policy. Inter-Korean relations have worsened since the conservative, pro-US, ROK President Lee Myung-bak took office in Feb, pledging to link inter-Korean relations to NK's nuclear disarmament. The statement said the closure of the Red Cross channel will lead to a full suspension of humanitarian programs that arrange temporary reunions of family members who have been separated by the inter-Korean border since the 1950-53 Korean War.

• NK looked to be further isolating itself with reports on 13 Nov that it was restricting travelers from major benefactor China and ignoring calls to lift a threat to close its border with the South. The measures came amid widespread speculation that NK's 66-year-old leader Kim Jong-il may have suffered a stroke, raising questions about his hold on power and who was making decisions about the country's nuclear weapons program.

• The Financial Times reported that the Chinese military has boosted troop numbers along the border with NK since September amid mounting concerns about the health of Kim Jong-il, according to US officials. One official cautioned that the increase in Chinese troops was not “dramatic”, but he said China was also constructing more fences and installations at key border outposts. Wang Baodong, the Chinese embassy spokesman in Washington, said he was unaware of any increased deployments.

• On an official Chinese government website, leaders of Antu County near the NK border outlined emergency management measures in order to control any contingencies on the border. Measures included beefing up intelligence and information collection, controlling illegal immigrants from NK, security management, and strengthening the ability to manage and control the situation.