North's decision on Kaesong

The buzz here in Korea today is an announcement North Korea made yesterday about its plan to close all overland passages over the demilitarized zone, freeze the Kaesong day tours, stop the "train to no where", and expel most of the South Korean managers and vehicles from the Kaesong Industrial Complex.

Naturally, opinions abound from the North Korean watchers and the media on what all of this means and just what exactly is going on in North Korea. I am certain most of yo have heard/read about most of them already, so I am not going to bore you with the details of what everyone has said.

I just have a few small points to say. To me, North Korea's latest move seems to be nothing new. It is simply a continuity of what it has done so well since its inception - saber rattling, brinkmanship, and manipulation.

Let's take a look at what's going on around North Korea right now:

1. The current US administration seems to be willing to go along with North Korea more so that it could hand the problem over to the next administration and have a graceful exit;
2. From where North Korea is standing, the US president-elect and his administration looks like they will most likely adapt a more accommodating position - give the "complaining child" what he wants and he will be quiet - and are more likely to engage North Korea one-on-one - and probably end up giving North Korea more of what it wants;
3. and South Korea is not "playing nice" and North Korea is not getting all the benefits it once enjoyed. Not only that, North Korea can't seem to get the South Korean government to change its mind.

So, if you just look at things from these three points, what would you do if you were North Korea? I know what I'd do...I'd do something to keep the pressure on both the US and South Korea, and use the US to make South Korea change its position on the North. So, Let's see...

1. "Make as much noise" as possible to force the US to exert at least some of its energy and attention on North Korea since everyone knows (to include North Korea) North Korean problem has not been, and probably will not be anytime soon, the top priority for any US administration. And since North Korea wants to have relations with the US - because it knows what that could mean for its economy - keeping the US actively engaged in Northeast Asia, especially in North Korean issues, is paramount. One way to achieve this....the nuclear program verification process...what better way to keep the US' attention focused on North Korea than this? Stall as long as possible...give in a little bit at the last moment to keep the process going...and get as much free stuff as possible from the US, its neighbors, and the international community. Stunts like Kaesong is another way to keep the US' attention. What's the message? Simple..."See...we are really, really mad and we really, really mean it. This is what we do to those who doesn't listen to us...so you have to be nice, listen, and do what we want you to do."
2. The message to the South Koreans is really simple..."Since you are not doing what I want you to do, I am taking my toys and going home. Besides, who needs you anyway? I can go play with the Americans. Besides, you are not the one who hold the key to the foreign aid anyway." I know this seems very oversimplified, but sometimes things are not as complicated as they seem (at least I think so). After all, the foreign aid of oil and food will continue to flow regardless of the North's relationship with the South, albeit at a reduced rate.
3. And finally, since threatening to "taking the toys and going home" didn't quite work, you actually pick up your toys and start walking away (looking back once in a while)...hoping that the US will intervene, pull South Korea aside, and say, "just restrain yourself and give in just a little to what the North wants. North Korea will then be happy, and everything will be better." Of course, North Korea is betting that if it all works out, it will continue to get what it wants from South Korea...not to mention all the other countries it was receiving aid from anyway. If it doesn't, it's so sad that it won't receive anything from South Korea, but it still can get things from everyone else...not to mention that it can still pursue bilateral relations with the US.

So, putting all of this together, the North Korean end state is simple..."what can we do to draw the US into an engagement policy, leading eventually to a normalization of relations, while isolating South Korea from this entire process?"

Of course, I could be totally wrong and all of this could just be a move to impose control back over its own people because North Korea has perceived there has been too much exposure to the outside world.

Well, that was my two cents worth to be added to all the other view points on this matter. Just take it with a grain of salt...