In and Around North Korea: 13 - 19 December 2008

• The US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on 16 Dec the current administration will keep trying to get North Korea to make written commitments on inspection of its nuclear programs until President George W. Bush leaves office on 20 Jan. Six-nation disarmament talks in Beijing ended in a stalemate on 11 Dec over the North's refusal to put into writing any commitments on inspecting its past nuclear activities. The failure of the talks blocked progress on an aid-for-disarmament agreement reached last year. The US stated on 11 Dec it would suspend all heavy fuel oil aid to North Korea until North Korea agrees to a verification plan. On 12 Dec, North Korea said, however, via its official news agency KCNA, that “positive progress” had been made at the six-party talks, especially on implementing a disarmament-for-aid deal. On 13 Dec, North Korea's top nuclear negotiator, Kim Kye Kwan, hinted that Pyongyang will slow disablement work at its key nuclear complex if there is a halt in the heavy fuel oil shipments promised in exchange.

• The latest cacophony of the six-party talks comes from the US statement that the six-party talks participants have agreed to suspend the fuel aid to North Korea due to failed talks on verifying the North's nuclear operations. The US stated North Korea’s five negotiating partners (China, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the US) have agreed to halt energy aid to North Korea unless the regime agrees to steps for verifying its past nuclear activities; however, on 15 Dec, the South Korea said China, Russia, and South Korea will continue their delivery of heavy fuel oil to North Korea despite the failure of the latest round of six-party talks, contradicting the US statement. The South Korean foreign ministry spokesman Moon Tae-Young said Russia is pushing to provide 50,000 tons of fuel oil and China plans to deliver 99,000 tons by the end of January to complete their shares of the assistance. By 17 Dec, however, the US threat to stop energy aid to North Korea seemed to be gaining ground with other parties as well as it became clear that a threat to stop energy aid to North Korea may be the only way to pressure the North after it was struck from the US State Sponsors of Terrorism List. Some 395,000 tons of heavy oil that had been promised to North Korea remains to be shipped. On 13 Feb 07, the five negotiating partners agreed to offer North Korea a total of 1 million tons of heavy fuel oil, with each country contributing 200,000 tons, depending on progress in denuclearization. About 60 percent has been sent. The US has sent 200,000 tons and Russia 150,000 tons. Korea and China have each provided 145,000 and 100,000 tons of raw materials instead, as agreed last year. Japan has refused to participate citing the unresolved issue of North Korea’s abduction of Japanese nationals.

• On 15 Dec, the US said it will continue to raise the issue of North Korea's abduction of Japanese citizens decades ago at multilateral talks on the communist state's denuclearization. Danny Russel, director of the Office of Japanese Affairs at the State Department, also supported Japan's decision not to join four other parties in providing the North with heavy fuel oil promised under a nuclear deal.

• Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao on 16 Dec said that the current main task of the six-party talks for the Korean nuclear issue is to implement the second-phase actions in a comprehensive and balanced way. A journalist asked during a regular news conference: the US State Department deputy spokesman recently said that the process of non-nuclearization has reached a deadlock as North Korea had refused to accept the nuclear verification protocol. The US side holds the view that it will suspend fuel assistance to North Korea until North Korea accepts the nuclear verification protocol. What is your comment on that? Liu Jianchao said that the six-party talks is an ongoing process and it is a common understanding among all parties to promote this process in a progressive manner. The main task for the current phase is to implement the second-phase actions in a comprehensive and balanced way.

• North Korea condemned Japan on Tuesday (16 Dec) for "irresponsibly" failing to provide energy aid it promised under a nuclear deal. Japan refuses to pay its share of the cost unless Pyongyang fully addresses concerns about Japanese nationals kidnapped by North Korean agents in the 1970s and 80s. Australia and New Zealand have been approached to make up for the shortfall of about 200,000 tons of fuel oil. Japan has reportedly said it does not oppose the countries' participation in energy provision.

• North Korea has been putting out almost daily diatribes against the outgoing Bush administration while keeping a discreet silence about president-elect Barack Obama, evidently still hedging its bets about the next US government. When Washington hinted at halting energy aid to North Korea immediately after the collapse of six-party talks on denuclearization last week, the official Rodong Shinmun on Saturday (13 Dec) said the best thing for the Bush administration was to “shut up and leave the White House in silence now that is all there is left for it to do.” It said all the Bush government has done over the last eight years “is create trouble in the world, commit wrongdoings in its every endeavor, and bring about disaster.” But about the verification protocol for its nuclear declaration, over which the talks collapsed and which the next US government will now have to deal with, North Korea drew a veil. After the six-party talks ended, the KCNA said nothing about the verification process, giving the impression that the talks ended fruitfully and saying the six countries agreed to complete delivery of 100 tons of heavy fuel oil as part-reward for the denuclearization process. Nor did North Korea blame the U.S. for the rupture of negotiations. A South Korean government official said, “It seems North Korea doesn’t want to make a negative impression on the new U.S. president right from the start.” On the day Barack Obama won the US presidential election, North Korea sent its Foreign Ministry’s America chief Ri Gun to the US and had him establish contacts with officials in the Obama’s camp. It has also so far made no negative comments about Obama. Baek Seung-joo, of the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, said, “North Korea seems to be cautiously studying the Obama administration before the real negotiations on nuclear weapons begins.”

• The French neurosurgeon who treated Kim Jong-il in October said Kim suffered a cerebral hemorrhage but did not undergo surgery and is recovering, in an interview with the French daily Le Figaro. Meanwhile, French intelligence services reportedly checked with a heart surgeon from Lyons who visited the North to treat Kim back in 2004 whether he brought back a blood sample with him and whether Kim had contracted AIDS. Le Figaro carried a full-page feature on Thursday on the secretive treatment of the top-class families of North Korea. Under the title "These French Doctors at Kim Jong-il's Bedside (Ces medecins francais au chevet de Kim Jong-il)," the daily reported the behind-the-scenes stories. in November, 1991, when Kim Il-sung had a heart attack, North Korea took a heart surgeon from Lyons to Pyongyang, and North Korean diplomats in Switzerland sent a pacemaker for his operation to the North in a diplomatic pouch.

• North Korea stepped up its campaign to prove leader Kim Jong-il is well and in control by showing him looking at an electronic copy of a newspaper dated Tuesday in a series of photos released through its official media. US and South Korean officials have said Kim Jong-il suffered a stroke in Aug 08, raising questions about leadership in North Korea and who was making decisions about the its nuclear program. Despite re-emerging in early Oct 08 in official media reports about making public appearances and seen in undated photographs, there had been no definite and up-to-date image that showed the reclusive leader in good health. In the series of photographs released by KCNA news agency, Kim is seen inspecting a library in the northern Jagang province and looking at a computer monitor displaying an electronic copy of the official Rodong Sinmun newspaper dated 15 Dec. Public appearances by Kim, as well as his health, are held in such secrecy that their exact location and the timing are almost never disclosed, even after the event.

• Kim Jong-il inspected a steel company, North Korea’s news agency said Thursday, 18 Dec, reporting rare consecutive days of tours to apparently deny rumors of his failing health. Kim "gave field guidance to the February General Steel Enterprise" in Jagang Province, the North's remote northern region, the Korean Central News Agency said, giving no date for the visit. Just a day earlier, the agency said Kim had visited an electronics research center, a library and a pharmaceutical plant. It was Kim's first serial inspections since rumors of his deteriorating health broke in mid-August.

• Egypt's mobile carrier giant Orascom Telecom Holding launched a third-generation mobile phone network in North Korea, the country's first such system, on Monday, 15 Dec. The company, the largest mobile network operator in the Middle East and Africa, had been working on construction of the network's infrastructure with the goal of starting its service this month. A ceremony was held in Pyongyang to mark the occasion, attended by Orascom chairman and chief executive officer Naguib Sawiris as well as senior North Korean officials, including Vice Premier Ro Tu Chol and post and telecommunications minister Ryu Yong Sop. Orascom has said it intends to cover Pyongyang and most of the country's major cities during the first year of service. Subscriber fees had yet to be announced. Paik Hak-soon, an expert on North Korea at South Korea's Sejong Institute, a policy think tank, said only elites will likely have access to the network, at least in the beginning. Traders and people involved in the economy may also be allowed to use it, Paik said.

• Orascom Telecom Holding SAE opened a bank in North Korea, on 16 Dec, one day after becoming the first mobile- phone company to invest in the Stalinist state. Orascom Telecom, the Middle East’s biggest wireless company, opened Ora Bank in Pyongyang in the presence of Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Naguib Sawiris, a company official said on condition of anonymity. Ezzeldine Heikal, who is also head of Koryolink, Orascom’s North Korean mobile-phone network, was appointed president of the bank, the official said without providing further details. Orascom Telecom is trying to make up for a slowdown in Pakistan and Bangladesh by investing in one of the world’s most isolated countries. Orascom joins OAO Russian Railways and Emerson Pacific Group among a handful of companies in reclusive North Korea, where the economy has been ravaged by famine and U.S. sanctions over its nuclear program. Ora Bank is a joint venture between Orascom Telecom and North Korea’s state-owned Foreign Trade Bank, North Korea’s official news agency reported today. The director of North Korea’s central bank Kim Chon Gyun and Egypt’s ambassador to Pyongyang Ismail Abdelrahman Ghoneim Hussein, were also present at the opening ceremony.

• North Korea is set to remove inoperative foreign companies from a faltering special economic zone, officials said on 16 Dec, following a report that some Chinese firms have already been told to leave. South Korea's unification ministry said the North in October conducted a probe into companies that exist only on paper but do not invest in the Rajin-Sonbong zone. The zone was created in 1991 on the communist country's northeastern tip bordering Russia to attract foreign investment and build a logistics hub, but Seoul officials say it has largely failed.

• North Korea has clamped down on fast-growing free markets for fear they could undermine the communist state's power over its people, analysts and observers say. The regime in late November banned general markets which sell consumer goods from early next year. It severely restricted the operations of food stalls, according to The Daily NK web newspaper and other analysts. The markets sprang up after the famine years of the mid-to-late 1990s, when the official food distribution system broke down and people were forced to trade and to travel around the impoverished nation to survive. In 2002 the country introduced limited reforms. Controls on prices and wages were loosened, workers were granted material incentives and the role of the private markets was accepted. But in Oct 05, apparently fearful of relaxing its grip, the regime banned private grain sales and announced a return to centralized food rationing in some areas. Analysts say the private markets have grown because the centralized command economy cannot do its job.

• North Korea needs urgent food aid worth 346 million USD to help millions of people get through the new year, the World Food Program said on Wednesday, 17 Dec, in an appeal for worldwide donations. The U.N. food agency said in a report that the requested donation is necessary to help feed 5.6 million North Koreans, nearly a quarter of the country's population, who need outside assistance next year. The agency urged countries to "step up and allocate to urgent hunger needs a fraction of what is proposed for financial rescue packages to address the global economic downturn."

• The latest US shipment of food aid to Pyongyang will arrive in North Korea within the month after a four-month lull, Voice of America said Thursday, 18 Dec, quoting a Washington official. Some 21,000 tons of corn, the sixth batch of US food aid to the North, are scheduled to arrive within two weeks, according to the quoted US State Department official. The shipment will be the first since the US halted food aid to the communist regime in August.

• North Korea reaped 4.3 million tons of grain in 2008, up 7 percent from the previous year thanks to improved weather conditions, South Korea's Rural Development Administration (RDA) said on 18 Dec. North Korea had no major typhoons in the summer, which helped increase its harvest by 300,000 tons, the RDA said in a statement. The country's rice harvest increased by 330,000 tons to nearly 1.9 million tons, while corn production dropped by about 50,000 tons to 1.5 million tons due to an early drought, it said. North Korea also produced 160,000 tons of soy beans, 510,000 tons of potatoes and 240,000 tons of barley and other grains, it said. Hah Woon-gu, a RDA researcher, said although North Korea had a good year, the harvest was still less than what the North had averaged in previous good years. "This is still insufficient to feed North Koreans," Han said. North Korea did not receive large-scale fertilizer aid from South Korea this year due to political wrangling, which cut into agricultural production. Relief agencies said food prices had increased in North Korea in recent months, making it even more difficult for the poorest people in the destitute country to obtain enough to eat.

• Foreign and defense officials in Seoul reiterated Monday, 15 Dec, that the United States does not accept North Korea as a nuclear power, spurning media speculation about a possible change in the U.S. stance toward the North's nuclear capability and status. Subsequently, it was also found that US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said in a magazine interview that he believed North Korea has built several nuclear bombs. Defense officials and analysts here are paying keen attention to Gates' remarks because it was the first time that a defense leader either from the United States or South Korea has said North Korea succeeded in making nuclear bombs. They also raised speculation that the US government is moving to change its position on North Korea's nuclear status. Earlier this week, controversy erupted after it was found that an annual US defense report categorized North Korea as one of the nuclear powers in Asia, alongside China, India, Pakistan and Russia.

• North Korea appears to have succeeded in developing small nuclear bombs light enough to be loaded onto conventional missiles, posing threats to neighboring states even greater than large weapons, Rep. Kim Hak-song of the Grand National Party said on 16 Dec. "The US government says North Korea could have produced seven to eight nuclear weapons while South Korea says it could have up to seven. These estimates are correct if we consider that it takes 6-7 kilograms of plutonium to make a 20-kiloton warhead," Kim said at a security forum organized by the state-run Korea Institute for Defense Analyses. "But I think differently. If North Korea has succeeded in developing small-size nuclear warheads, it takes not 6-7 kilograms but 2-3 kilograms of plutonium to make each nuclear weapon, and if that is the case, the North could have produced over 20 nuclear weapons," he said.

• The development of nuclear arsenals by both Iran and North Korea could lead to "a cascade of proliferation," making it more probable that terrorists could get their hands on an atomic weapon, a congressionally chartered commission warned on Tuesday, 16 Dec. "It appears that we are at a 'tipping point' in proliferation," the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States said in an interim report to lawmakers. The report also called for closer cooperation among nuclear powers and the international nuclear watchdog agency.

• South Korea said on 14 Dec it will use about 1.51 trillion won (US$1.10 billion) in 2009 to facilitate economic and humanitarian exchanges with North Korea, including 400,000 tons of rice aid to the impoverished state. The amount represents an 8.6 percent increase from the 1.39 trillion won earmarked for the inter-Korean cooperation fund this year, the Unification Ministry said. The National Assembly on 13 Dec passed a 284.5 trillion won budget bill for 2009.

• South Korean companies have started to cancel plans to build factories at the Kaesong industrial complex in North Korea as concerns mount about deteriorating inter-Korean relations, a South Korean opposition lawmaker said on 16 Dec. Rep. Chung Jung-bae's office said that since October, seven companies have decided against setting up operations at the complex located just north of the demilitarized zone. While two made the decision based on mounting losses in their businesses in the South, the rest expressed deteriorating conditions under the Lee Myung-bak administration as the main cause," an aide to Chung said.

• Lt. Gen. Kim Yong-chol, a senior official of North Korea’s National Defense Commission, made a two-day visit to the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) starting on 17 Dec amid speculation that Pyongyang may impose further sanctions on the joint industrial complex. He held talks with South Korean businessman in order to convey the meaning of the 1 Dec measure, to check how it has been implemented and to look into the current situation of the KIC. After his two-day visit, Kim said that “North-South relations are frozen at this moment,” and that “if there’s no change of attitude by the South, current measures will not be lifted.” Some experts believe that even though the military official gave no direct warning of new sanctions, the inspection itself carries the hint that Pyongyang is will to further curtail operations in Kaesong. Experts generally agree North Korea will not go to the extreme of shutting down the joint complex, which would deter foreign investors and dramatically heighten tension in the border region.

• North Korea’s Ministry of State Security said in a statement on 18 Dec that it had arrested a North Korean on a “terrorist mission” ordered by a South Korean intelligence organization “to do harm to the top leader” of North Korea. The North’s agency identified the arrested man’s family name as Ri and said he was tasked with gathering information about Kim Jong Il’s movements. The North’s statement also said authorities recently arrested unspecified agents who tried to gather soil, water, tree leaves and dust in the country’s major munitions industrial area to gather information on its nuclear program. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service stated it was checking the claim.

• On 15 Dec, North Korea’s state media urged its people not to “betray” the communist regime, stressing the importance of “comradeship.” The Rodong Sinmun editorial stated that “The inalterability of comradeship is clearly shown at the time of radical transition in political status,” and that “people who cherished their faithfulness to comrades won fame as revolutionaries, but those who failed to do so fell onto the path of treachery.” The call came amid reports of Kim Jong Il’s health and escalating tensions with South Korea and the United States. The North’s media has recently put more emphasis on the “unity of the people” in an apparent effort to tighten ideological control and quell internal anxiety over the health of Kim.

• A U.N. General Assembly plenary session on 18 Dec (19 Dec KST) adopted a resolution demanding that North Korea improve its human rights situation, including immediately returning abduction victims to their home countries. The assembly passed the resolution by a vote of 94 to 22 with 63 abstentions, marking the fourth year in a row that a resolution was adopted seeking concrete action from North Korea on its human rights situation. The resolution was led by Japan and European Union members. This year, South Korea joined for the first time in sponsoring the resolution.

In and Around North Korea: 26 November - 4 December 2008

• U.S. chief nuclear envoy Christopher Hill met with his NK counterpart Kim Kye-gwan in Singapore on 04 Dec, saying they had substantive talks focused on verification of the NK’s nuclear activities. “We have reviewed the major issues that we have all been working on. It is disablement, the fuel oil and the issue of verification of their declaration, "Hill told reporters after their meeting. Analysts said this meeting was expected to "set the tone for Beijing", Kyodo News said in an earlier report. Hill has been criticized by conservatives in Washington for being too flexible with North Korea and not obtaining detailed information from Pyongyang about its suspected program to enrich uranium for weapons, or for proliferating technology to countries such as Syria.

• South Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan said "I anticipate they (the United States and North Korea) would maximize efforts to reach an agreement". Asked whether failure to work out an agreement in Singapore would derail the six-party process, the minister was quoted as saying that "the United States, North Korea and other countries in the six-party framework have appreciated the usefulness of the six-party talks, and the next US administration led by President-elect Obama supports the talks".

• The U.S. State Department's top official on nuclear verification Paula DeSutter stressed on 26 Nov that sampling should be guaranteed in a six-party agreement on ways to assess Pyongyang's nuclear capability. "Sampling is a very normal part of many arms control agreements, especially on nuclear programs," she said in an interview with Yonhap News Agency. "And obviously, analysis happens not on site but back at laboratories specially designed to do the work."

• South Korea, the United States and Japan agreed to finalize the disablement of North Korean nuclear facilities by March 2009, Seoul's top nuclear envoy said. The chief nuclear negotiators from the three nations agreed at a meeting in Tokyo on 03 Dec to fine-tune their strategies ahead of the next round of six-party talks aimed at ending North Korea's nuclear ambitions. The talks are likely to be held in Beijing on 08 Dec.

• Rodong Sinmun on 02 Dec stated “it is the firm and unwavering stand of our Republic to counter the "preemptive attack," which the US imperialists made its main mode of striking us, with a more powerful and advanced preemptive attack of our own style. The preemptive attack of our own style, a powerful and mighty military operation beyond imagination, will make the combined military operations plan of the United States and Japan powerless. Nobody can predict the method of strike of our own style and its might and it will be resolute and merciless to the aggressors. Availing ourselves of this opportunity, we would like to serve a strong warning to the Japanese reactionaries. The desperate efforts made by Japan to start a reckless war against our Republic, crying out for "closer alliance" with the United States in a bid to gain something, will be an act of self-destruction as foolish as jumping into the fire with fagots on its back. Japan would be well advised to bear this in mind.”

• Rodong Sinmun on 01 Dec stated “with no rhetoric can the Lee Myung-bak ring avoid the criminal responsibility for having pushed North-South relations into a crisis of complete shutdown or cover up the anti-reunification and bellicose true colors of those keen to harm fellow countrymen at any cost in league with outside forces. Our principled stand is firm and invariable. We are always faithful to our words and we do not make any empty talk. The fate of North-South relations entirely depends on what attitude the authorities of the South side adopt toward them [declarations]. If the Lee Myung-bak ring continues to maliciously cling to its confrontational racket against the Republic, swimming against the current of the 15 June reunification era, it will be made to take full responsibility for all the grave consequences to be entailed.”

• KCNA reported on 02 Dec “the south Korean puppets are contemplating revising the "national defense reform for 2020" as a dangerous plan for arms buildup, while spreading rumor of "threat from the north." This is prompted by their bellicose scenario to realize at any cost their wild ambition to invade the north in collusion with foreign forces by attaining their goal for beefing up the ultra-modern armed forces earlier than scheduled and pushing ahead with it under a more carefully worked out plan.” It went on to say “the catastrophic crisis of the inter-Korean relations bears a close resemblance to the situation on the eve of a war. The Lee group would be well advised to stop the reckless arms buildup at once, mindful that the provocative acts will only further bedevil the inter-Korean relations and entail disastrous consequences.”

• North Korea released more pictures of leader Kim Jong Il visiting a military unit. Photos including one showing him clapping, in an apparent attempt to dispel rumors that a stroke left him partially paralyzed.

• KCNA reported on 03 Dec that Kim Jong Il visited the recently renovated Central Zoo in Pyongyang and oversaw operations there for “a long time.” The report did not specify exactly when the visit took place, but said the renovations were completed on 09 Nov, indicating he may have been there in the past month. It was the first time the KCNA had reported that Kim visited the local landmark.

• The Mainichi Daily News reported on 01 Dec that a move to have the eldest son of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il succeed him as the reclusive country's next leader failed due to a power struggle within North Korea's ruling party late last year.

• Chang Song Taek, 62, a high-ranking official at the Worker's Party of Korea, asked fellow party official Lee Je Gang to agree to endorse Kim's eldest son, Kim Jong Nam, 37, as his successor around the end of last year.

• However, Lee rejected Chang in favor of Kim's second son, 28-year-old Kim Jong Chol instead, according to sources close to the North Korean government.

• The failed agreement between Chang -- Kim Jong Il's brother-in-law -- and Lee -- a senior aide to Kim -- has reportedly thrown the party into disarray over who will succeed Kim Jong Il, whose health is reportedly deteriorating.

• A 20 Nov article in the Tokyo Shimbun translated on 01 Dec stated that exports from North Korea's Musan mine (Musan County, North Hamgyo'ng Province), which boasts of the largest deposit of iron ore in Northeast Asia, and exports of rice from China to the DPRK had stopped since September. According to several related sources, the traffic of cargo trains between the two countries has also stopped since the beginning of November. The reason for this "strange occurrence" in PRC-DPRK trade is unknown, but certain pundits suspect that this is linked to rumors of General Secretary Kim Jong Il's illness.

• Kyodo News reported that Singapore and North Korea signed an investment guarantee agreement on 02 Dec as Pyongyang pitched for investment from the city-state. The agreement was signed by Singapore's Trade and Industry Minister Lim Hng Kiang and North Korea's Foreign Trade Minister Ri Ryong Nam on the last day of his three-day official visit to Singapore. It promotes bilateral investment flows by protecting investors and their investments through nondiscriminatory treatment, compensation in the event of expropriation or nationalization of their investments, and free transfer of capital and returns from investment, Lim's ministry said in a statement.

• Amidst the stumbling of South Korean enterprises in the Kaesong Industrial Complex as a result of the 01 Dec restrictions, the assertion is that a “Shinuiju Special Zone” is on the way.
  
• Forum for Inter-Korea Relations representative Kim Gyu Chul held a press conference in Seoul on 01 Dec and released a piece of North Korean special data, which was purchased in March from a foreign consulting company in China, about developing a special zone in Shinuiju. According to Kim, North Korea has a plan to build a special economic zone in the Shiuiju and Wihwado region, on around 83.772 hectares of land.

• "During the period of the current South Korean administration, North Korea will minimize reliance on the South's economy, increase reliance on China, and is planning to promote economic relations with the U.S., the E.U. and Russia," he stated.

• Mobile phone service will be launched this month in North Korea but it is unclear who will be allowed to use it in the secretive communist state, a news report said on 04 Dec. The service is due to begin in Pyongyang on 10 Dec, US broadcaster Radio Free Asia said in a Korean-language website report which quoted a Chinese trader operating in the country. The broadcaster said the service will gradually expand to other parts of the country, with mobile handsets costing 700 dollars. This would make them too expensive for all but a tiny minority. Radio Free Asia said it was not known whether the new service would be restricted to communist party officials. Egypt's Orascom Telecom announced in January it had won the right to offer the mobile service and said it would invest 400 million dollars in the project.

• Officials at South Korea’s Ministry of Strategy and Finance said that the government plans to establish a 9.9 billion won ($6.7 million) trust fund in the World Bank next year in the form of a "Fragile States Fund," through which South Korea plans to provide organizational development assistance. "Since North Korea is not a member of the World Bank, we cannot help North Korea directly," an official of the ministry said. He noted that the fund would not target the North only, but "If there is some progress in North Korea's opening up and it becomes a member of the World Bank, the fund could be directly used to help the North," he added.

• KCNA reported that the DPRK categorically rebuffs and condemns an anti-DPRK resolution on human rights which was “railroaded through the meeting of the 3rd Committee of the 63rd UN General Assembly.” This "resolution, fabricated by Japan and the EU with a political motive to tarnish the image of the DPRK in the international arena, is peppered with lies and fabrications.” The article went on to say “That was why the majority of the UN member nations said no or abstained from voting, questioning the resolution as it was a vivid manifestation of politicization and double-dealing standards in dealing with a human rights issue.”

• The director of the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency said “U.S. intelligence agencies have numerous indications of close cooperation between Iran and North Korea on developing ballistic missiles.” Air Force Lt. Gen. Trey Obering told reporters that a recent Iranian missile test was one sign of Teheran-Pyongyang missile cooperation.

• South Korea will complete the withdrawal of hundreds of its nationals from North Korea on 04 Dec after the communist nation ordered them out. The North earlier demanded that, starting this week, the number of South Koreans working at the joint industrial and tourism zones in Kaesong and Mount Kumgang be halved to 880 and 100, respectively. The communist nation said the cutback is part of its initial retaliatory measures on Seoul's hard-line policy toward Pyongyang. The last group of about 50 staffers, including 23 Chinese, are scheduled to leave the two North Korean areas in the afternoon, according to Kim Ho-nyoun, spokesman for Seoul's Unification Ministry dealing with North Korea.

• Activists from groups who regularly send balloons carrying flyers to North Korea clashed on 02 Dec with tens of opponents from liberal groups protesting against the campaign as they attempted to launch a new batch of balloons at a port near the western sea border between the two Koreas. One activist was hospitalized after being hit on the head with a wrench wielded by a protester. The clash underscored South Korea's deepening ideological divide over sensitive political and social issues. Conservatives claim leafleting is an effective means of helping North Koreans see the truth in a country where the use of radio and television as well as the internet is limited. Liberals, to the contrary, believe it would only enrage North Korea and result in deteriorated ties.

• Conservative South Korean activists resumed sending propaganda leaflets into the North on 03 Dec and, in contrast to the previous day, there were no clashes with leftwing organizations trying to prevent them. Ten members of Family Assembly Abducted to North Korea and Fighters for Free North Korea floated 10 large balloons carrying 100,000 propaganda leaflets from the Bridge of Freedom at Imjingak Park in Paju, Gyeonggi Province. Attached to the leaflets were 1,000 US$1 bills.

• Radio Free Asia said on 03 Dec that North Korea has mobilized its troops to collect anti-communist leaflets distributed by South Korean civic groups off its western coast. The report said Pyongyang’s intelligence agents are monitoring residents in the area and punishing those who read or keep the leaflets.

• South Korean troops are on guard against any military provocation by North Korea after the communist state ordered a border clampdown amid worsening ties, the defense ministry said on 03 Dec. The North on 01 Dec imposed strict border controls and ordered the expulsion of hundreds of South Koreans working at the Kaesong joint industrial estate, in protest at what it calls the Seoul government's confrontational policy. It also halted a cross-border cargo rail service and a popular day tour. "In response to the North's 01 Dec measure, surveillance and control operations are being stepped up against (any) naval attacks and attempts to kidnap fishing boats," the ministry said.

• South Korea’s Democratic Party Chairman Chung Sye-kyun, Democratic Labor Party Chairman Kang Ki-kap, and Renewal of Korea Party Chairman Moon Kook-hyun held an “urgent meeting” on 30 Nov in the National Assembly member office building to discuss ways to deal with what they defined as a crisis in relations with North Korea. During the meeting the leaders of the three opposition parties decided to adopt a four-point joint resolution. “The leaders of North and South Korea agreed to the June 15 Joint Statement and the October 4 Summit Declaration and the United Nations supported them unanimously. The (South Korean government) must clearly state that it intends to carry out the agreements. It must scrap its unrealistic Vision 3000 plan and change its North Korea policy to be one of reconciliation and cooperation,” the statement said.

• ROK Minister of National Defense Lee Sang-hee said on 03 Dec that if an emergency situation or political instability takes place in North Korea, South Korea must use all means necessary to prevent any potential negative influence from China.

• South Korea on 03 Dec accused North Korea of breaching every existing military agreement between the two Koreas, blaming the communist nation for what is now a nearly defunct relationship between the two. The accusation comes two days after the communist North virtually shut down the passage through the inter-Korean border, reducing the number of South Koreans allowed to cross it from nearly 10,000 a day to only 1,500. "North Korea has breached or failed to honor most of agreements reached between the South and the North in military affairs," the defense ministry told the special committee of the National Assembly on inter-Korean relations.

• South Korea has delayed a costly plan to send naval ships to pirates-infested Somali waters, officials said on 28 Nov as the country continues to reel from the global financial crisis. The South Korean government had initially planned to seek parliamentary approval before the year's end for the motion, which calls for the dispatch of a stealth destroyer and Navy forces to patrol the dangerous coastal waters off the African country. Several South Korean commercial ships have fallen victim to piracy in Somali waters in recent years.

• The UN Security Council has unanimously adopted a resolution allowing member states to continue fighting pirates off the coast of Somalia for another year. The resolution also offers support for a European Union anti-piracy mission that launches next week. From United Nations headquarters in New York, VOA's Margaret Besheer has more. The U.S.-drafted resolution authorized states to continue taking all necessary means to combat piracy - including the use of force.

• The U.S. Congress recommended on 02 Dec that the incoming Barack Obama administration give priority to stopping the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran, fearing their armament will jeopardize the nuclear nonproliferation treaty. "As a top priority, the next administration must stop the Iranian and North Korean nuclear weapons programs," a congressional research report said. "In the case of North Korea, this requires the complete abandonment and dismantlement of all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs."

In and around North Korea: 21 - 26 November 2008

• The next round of six-party talks on ending North Korea's nuclear weapons programs will be held on 08 Dec in China, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said. The talks have been stalled for months over how to verify North Korea's nuclear facilities as presented by the reclusive country in June as part of a nuclear deal signed by the six parties in the multilateral talks.

• On 25 Nov, Robert Wood, the US State Department spokesman, said the US is arranging a trilateral meeting with South Korea and Japan to prepare for a fresh round of six-party talks early next month to discuss how to verify North Korea's nuclear facilities. Robert Wood said, "I know we are trying to arrange a trilat meeting, you know, before the six-party Heads of Delegation meeting."

• Russian deputy foreign minister Alexei Borodavkin told Interfax on 25 Nov that changing the current format of the six- party talks on North Korea's nuclear problem would be unreasonable. "We believe that the existing six-party format is optimal. Any attempts to change it may have a negative effect on the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula." It was reported earlier that North Korea demanded that Japan be excluded from the six-party talks for refusing to meet its obligations to supply fuel oil to Pyongyang.

• The U.S. State Department's top official on nuclear verification stressed on 26 Nov that sampling should be guaranteed in a six-party agreement on ways to assess Pyongyang's nuclear capability. Paula DeSutter, assistant secretary of state for verification, compliance, and implementation, hinted, however, at some flexibility in the format, saying, "it is not unusual for us to have a primary document with common understandings and a secondary document." "Sampling is a very normal part of many arms control agreements, especially on nuclear programs," she said in an interview with Yonhap News Agency. "And obviously, analysis happens not on site but back at laboratories specially designed to do the work." DeSutter, on a trip to the ROK to attend a U.N. disarmament seminar, said she will dispatch one of her senior staff to the upcoming six-way talks on the North Korean nuclear issue to ensure that sampling will be included in the verification protocol.

• The Rodong Sinmun reported in a signed article on 25 Nov that “the Lee Myung-bak group's moves for confrontation with the DPRK are, in essence, acts against reunification and the worst acts of treachery as they are ultimately aimed to provoke a war of aggression against the DPRK.”

• The Minju Joson reported in a signed commentary on 25 Nov “the U.S. is contemplating transferring about 8 000 marines present in Okinawa and their families to Guam and converting it into a military fortress in the Pacific in the period from 2010 to 2014. This means the U.S. declared at home and abroad its intention not to change its policy of military intervention and engagement in the Asia-Pacific region even in the years to come.”

• The Rodong Sinmun reported on 25 Nov that “war is an indispensable means of survival and one of the major links in politics for the United States. Almost all wars, large and small, fought during and after the Cold War period broke out with direct or indirect US intervention. The Korean war of the 1950s was also provoked by the United States. Today, the United States is again trying to provoke a new Korean war in collusion with its minion forces. Indications of that happening are becoming clearer with each passing day. Recently, the United States began, with Japan, the work of conducting a sweeping reexamination of the ‘joint operation plan’ in anticipation of an ‘emergency’ on the Korean peninsula.”

• Japan’s Mainichi Shimbun reported on 26 Nov, a Chinese source well versed in the situation in North Korea revealed on 25 Nov that Kim Jong-il had had another stroke in late October, and his health was so deteriorated that an emergency operation had been considered. However, it is not known whether KJI underwent another operation. Piecing together comments made by diplomatic personnel in Beijing, there seems to have been a respite in KJI's illness. It has been viewed that KJI had a stroke in August, but was recovering with some after-effects. The official stated KJI was hospitalized in mid-August for emergency treatment for a worsened chronic heart-disease condition. Results of the detailed examination showed that a blood clot in his heart went to his brain and obstructed a blood vessel [in the brain]. Neurosurgeons from China and France were said to have been sent to North Korea, and that a few days later a French neurosurgeon performed an operation.

• North Korean radio announced Kim Jong Il visited a cosmetics factory and a machinery plant in Sinuiju. He congratulated workers at the Nagwon Machine Complex on completing the year's production quota by the end of October.

• South Korean and Japanese media have noticeably highlighted the prospects of a future collective leadership and the growing role of Kim Jong Il's close confidants -- Chang So'ng-t'aek and Kim Ok – in succession dynamics since rumors of Kim Jong Il's ill health resurfaced in early September. By contrast, media have taken a more ambivalent attitude toward Kim Jong Il's three sons, discussing the possibility of hereditary succession only with the support of Kim Jong Il's inner circle. This media shift in focus underscores the growing view among North Korea watchers in the ROK and Japan that, whether North Korea adopts a collective leadership or chooses to continue the "monolithic leadership system" for a third generation, no one person is likely to exercise the absolute power wielded by Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il.

Since early September, when rumors of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's serious illness resurfaced, South Korean and Japanese media have given extensive coverage to a possible collective leadership in the future. While media remain divided over who would be at the helm of such a system, most such reports suggest leadership by the military, specifically the National Defense Commission (NDC) – the supreme military organ of the state which oversees all military and defense affairs -- is plausible in a post-Kim Jong Il era.

Small number of South Korean media reports, however, cited authoritative pundits on the party's ostensibly superior stature and hence the probability of a party-centered collective leadership.

Since many high-level civilians and military leaders hold titles in both state and party organizations, ROK and Japanese media have reported, though infrequently, on the possibility of a collective leadership led jointly by the different branches of government.

• Korean Central Broadcasting Station reported on 25 Nov a Korean People's Army Air Force delegation led by Colonel General Ri Pyong-chol, commander of the Air Force, returned home on 25 Nov after visiting Cuba. KPA general-grade officers and officers received the delegation at the airport.

• North Korea is playing a double game in inter-Korean and international relations, taking care of lucrative deals while appearing more hard-line in its policy. On Monday, North Korea announced it is stopping package tours to Kaesong and cutting inter-Korean railway service, but permitted continued operation of the Kaesong Industrial Complex. Pundits say this is because the North cannot afford to lose the money it makes from the industrial park. The complex employs 33,688 North Korean workers earning US$70 a month. That alone means W43 billion (US$1=W1,502) a year. With other added value included, the annual economic effects the North gains from the industrial park are estimated at between W250 billion and W300 billion. Kaesong package tours made the North W16 billion last year, but if the urgent aim is to pressure the South and bolster the regime, Pyongyang seems to have decided that stopping the tours is the lesser of two evils. In the nuclear negotiations, the North is also thoroughly calculates the economic benefits. While rejecting sample collections as "banditry," the North has agreed to resume the six-party talks in December because it can get economic and energy aid only if it attends the talks. On the international stage, the North recently rejected the UN human rights resolution, calling it "a scheme to change our system by coercion." Nonetheless, the North requested emergency food aid to the World Food Programme and got a promise of 600,000 tons in aid, worth about W650 billion. Though it has never admitted the UN special rapporteur on North Korean human rights, Pyongyang has allowed WFP officials to monitor food distribution by visiting anywhere in North Korea.

• According to Sankei Shimbun Online Japanese Morning Edition of 25 Nov, Iranian and Syrian delegations visited North Korea in late Oct to promote nuclear development. The article reported that according to a source well-versed in North Korea's nuclear issue, North Korea, Iran, and Syria seem to have discussed a tripartite joint training project for technicians who work at nuclear facilities. The source points out that the joint training project started in late 2006.

• On 24 Nov, North Korea’s delegation to the North-South general-level military talks notified the South Korean side, that due to the South’s blatant acts of destruction of all North-South agreements, it will take the following important measures beginning from 01 Dec:
  
  1. North Korea will selectively expel resident personnel and vehicles of relevant offices of the authorities and enterprises in the Kaesong Industrial Complex and Mt Kumgang Tourism District, and cut off their overland passages through the MDL.
  
  2. North Korea will completely cut off the tour of Kaesong by the South side's personnel that has been conducted through their passage of the MDL in the West Coast area under the control of the North and South.
  
  3. North Korea will disallow the operation of the South side's train that has run between Pongdong and Munsan and close again the MDL that was opened.
  
  4. North Korea will also strictly restrict the passage of all the South side's personnel through the MDL to enter and leave the Kaesong Industrial Complex and the Mt Kumgang Tourist Zone under the name of visit, economic cooperation work, and the like.
  
  5. North Korea will impose stricter order and discipline on passage and entry into the Kaesong Industrial Complex and the Mt. Kumgang Tourist District, and strong sanctions will be applied to violators.

• On 26 Nov, Dong-A Ilbo reported, the ROK government has started to pull out South Koreans from the joint industrial complex in Kaesong and consider how to compensate businesses operating in the complex. The ROK government formed a task force comprised of working-level officials at the Unification Ministry on 25 Nov and began preparing for the withdrawal of South Korean staff as demanded by the North. Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Ho-nyoun told reporters, "The safety of the people working and staying at the complex is the top priority. The Kaeso'ng Industrial District Management Committee and companies whose staff were requested to leave the complex by the North are now in talks with the North on the number of personnel to be pulled out and the schedule." As of 25 Nov, 1,592 South Koreans were in the North Korean border city, including 38 workers on the management committee; 750 staff at 88 small manufacturers; 50 volunteers at 13 community work facilities; 201 workers employed by nine construction companies; and 553 staff at Hyundai Asan Corp. and other partner companies. If the government complies with the North's demand, some 500 South Korean workers will be pulled out from the complex, leaving behind 750 staff at manufacturers. In a related move, the ministry and the Small and Medium Business Administration are seeking to assess the damage to businesses operating in Kaesong and respond to a growingly hostile North Korea. The ministry will hold an advisory committee meeting of North Korean experts 08 Dec on handling the issue. Measures under consideration are encouraging companies at the complex to join a damage compensation program; introducing a collective purchase system to cope with a cut in orders from partner companies; and providing liquidity to prevent a credit crunch, according to ministry officials. The damage compensation program will require the government to absorb 90 percent of the losses (up to 10 billion won or 6.7 million U.S. dollars) stemming from the North's breach of contracts or expropriation of investment funds if companies sign up for the program for a fee.

• Hyundai Asan is in shock after North Korea announced it is stopping package tours to the city of Kaesong from Dec. 1. That means all tourism to North Korea stops for the first time in 10 years. The fatal shooting of a South Korean tourist in July already forced the company to halt tours to Mt. Kumgang. Suspension of the Kaesong tours, however, could cost Hyundai Asan up to W2 billion per month in addition to the W80 billion lost from the Mt. Kumgang tours.

• South Korean activists said on 25 Nov they will continue sending propaganda leaflets over the border into North Korea despite the communist neighbor's threats and Seoul's pleas to stop sending them. "We at one point had decided to suspend our activities of sending leaflets for the time being but reversed the decision after the North's announcement," Park Sang-hak, head of Fighters for Free North Korea, a Seoul-based group of North Korean defectors.

• North Korean authorities have begun tightening control over government officials and citizens, taking such steps as confiscating Japanese cars from senior government officials, at a time when the deterioration of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's health has been reported, a South Korean newspaper has reported. According to the Dong-a Ilbo, the authorities began seizing Japanese cars possessed by senior government officials from Thursday, 27 Nov. The North Korean regime also announced that it will close down markets around the country used by citizens to sell commodities and clothes from next year. Some observers say the movements are initiated by Chang Sung Taek, head of the Workers' Party of Korea's administrative department, who is rumored to wield power in the country now instead of Kim, to enhance his prestige. According to the Dong-a Ilbo, North Korean authorities are seizing cars and microbuses made in Japan. About 80 percent of the cars used in North Korea are Japanese, but the authorities have been relentless in seizing cars from many people, including senior government officials. The pretext for the confiscation is unknown. The newspaper says there are several possible reasons, including the deterioration of Japan-North Korea relations and moves to boost business for the factories of Pyeonghwa Motors Corp., which is an affiliate of the Holy Spirit Association for the Unification of Christianity, or the Unification Church. The markets in question were established in 2002 as part of Pyongyang's economic policies. Citizens gather at the markets to sell commodities, clothes and food. However, the authorities are planning to close them down and only allow markets that sell agricultural products, which existed before 2002. The only products people will be allowed to sell from 2009 will be agricultural products cultivated on surplus farmland. Citizens will be required to sell commodities and other products through government-run shops. Kim has ordered the seizure of Japanese cars twice before, including in January 2007, but the attempts have failed because the government officials in charge of the policy were also using Japanese cars. In addition, North Korean authorities reportedly have tried many times to close the people's markets, regarding them as a hotbed for capitalism to spread. However, all such attempts have failed.

• Radio Free Asia reported that the North Korean state orchestra may hold a performance in New York City this coming March. The performance will be in response to the one given by the New York Philharmonic in Pyongyang earlier this year.

• On 26 Nov, the ROK Defense Ministry stated the U.S. program to keep munitions as war reserves in South Korea will be terminated next month more than three decades after it was established as a deterrent against North Korea. Nearly half, or some 260,000 tons, of U.S. ammunitions stockpiled here under the War Reserve Stocks for Allies (WRSA) program will still be maintained and used by South Korean forces. The rest will be shipped back to the United States by 2020. Seoul and Washington signed an agreement last month for the sale of the WRSA ammunition to South Korea for a little over 270 billion won (US$184 million). "Even though the WRSA program will be terminated, the two countries will continue to maintain a system under which they will support each other's ammunition needs," the ministry said in a press release. A ministry official later said the transfer of WRSA ammunitions to South Korea will be completed before the end of the year. The U.S. program was initiated in 1974 in order to have enough munitions and supplies ready for the combined forces of South Korea and the United States in times of need. Washington decided in 2006 to terminate the program due to rising maintenance costs.

North's decision on Kaesong

The buzz here in Korea today is an announcement North Korea made yesterday about its plan to close all overland passages over the demilitarized zone, freeze the Kaesong day tours, stop the "train to no where", and expel most of the South Korean managers and vehicles from the Kaesong Industrial Complex.

Naturally, opinions abound from the North Korean watchers and the media on what all of this means and just what exactly is going on in North Korea. I am certain most of yo have heard/read about most of them already, so I am not going to bore you with the details of what everyone has said.

I just have a few small points to say. To me, North Korea's latest move seems to be nothing new. It is simply a continuity of what it has done so well since its inception - saber rattling, brinkmanship, and manipulation.

Let's take a look at what's going on around North Korea right now:

1. The current US administration seems to be willing to go along with North Korea more so that it could hand the problem over to the next administration and have a graceful exit;
2. From where North Korea is standing, the US president-elect and his administration looks like they will most likely adapt a more accommodating position - give the "complaining child" what he wants and he will be quiet - and are more likely to engage North Korea one-on-one - and probably end up giving North Korea more of what it wants;
3. and South Korea is not "playing nice" and North Korea is not getting all the benefits it once enjoyed. Not only that, North Korea can't seem to get the South Korean government to change its mind.

So, if you just look at things from these three points, what would you do if you were North Korea? I know what I'd do...I'd do something to keep the pressure on both the US and South Korea, and use the US to make South Korea change its position on the North. So, Let's see...

1. "Make as much noise" as possible to force the US to exert at least some of its energy and attention on North Korea since everyone knows (to include North Korea) North Korean problem has not been, and probably will not be anytime soon, the top priority for any US administration. And since North Korea wants to have relations with the US - because it knows what that could mean for its economy - keeping the US actively engaged in Northeast Asia, especially in North Korean issues, is paramount. One way to achieve this....the nuclear program verification process...what better way to keep the US' attention focused on North Korea than this? Stall as long as possible...give in a little bit at the last moment to keep the process going...and get as much free stuff as possible from the US, its neighbors, and the international community. Stunts like Kaesong is another way to keep the US' attention. What's the message? Simple..."See...we are really, really mad and we really, really mean it. This is what we do to those who doesn't listen to us...so you have to be nice, listen, and do what we want you to do."
2. The message to the South Koreans is really simple..."Since you are not doing what I want you to do, I am taking my toys and going home. Besides, who needs you anyway? I can go play with the Americans. Besides, you are not the one who hold the key to the foreign aid anyway." I know this seems very oversimplified, but sometimes things are not as complicated as they seem (at least I think so). After all, the foreign aid of oil and food will continue to flow regardless of the North's relationship with the South, albeit at a reduced rate.
3. And finally, since threatening to "taking the toys and going home" didn't quite work, you actually pick up your toys and start walking away (looking back once in a while)...hoping that the US will intervene, pull South Korea aside, and say, "just restrain yourself and give in just a little to what the North wants. North Korea will then be happy, and everything will be better." Of course, North Korea is betting that if it all works out, it will continue to get what it wants from South Korea...not to mention all the other countries it was receiving aid from anyway. If it doesn't, it's so sad that it won't receive anything from South Korea, but it still can get things from everyone else...not to mention that it can still pursue bilateral relations with the US.

So, putting all of this together, the North Korean end state is simple..."what can we do to draw the US into an engagement policy, leading eventually to a normalization of relations, while isolating South Korea from this entire process?"

Of course, I could be totally wrong and all of this could just be a move to impose control back over its own people because North Korea has perceived there has been too much exposure to the outside world.

Well, that was my two cents worth to be added to all the other view points on this matter. Just take it with a grain of salt...

North Korea's latest Tantrum...Closure of Kaesong Industrial Complex?

Yesterday, citing South Korea's failure to stop the leadlets and its failure to adhere to the 2000 and 2007 agreements (declarations on eventual peaceful unification, confidence-building measures, economic cooperation, and a permanent peace mechanism), North Korea announced "“we officially inform the south side that the actual crucial measure taken by the Korean People’s Army to strictly restrict and cut off all the overland passages through the Military Demarcation Line will take effect from December 1 as the first step in connection with the above-said development” and “The south Korean puppet authorities should never forget that the present inter-Korean relations are at the crucial crossroads of existence and total severance.” This comes after months of harsh rhetoric and threats to close down the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) . The north labels the leaflets as a smear campaign directed at its leader Kim Jong Il and warns it could lead to a military confrontation.

Facts on the KIC: A ground-breaking ceremony was held in Kaesong on June 30, 2003, for the construction of the KIC, one of the biggest inter-Korean economic projects. Planners intended the KIC to be not only a model of inter-Korean economic cooperation but also to contribute to the economic growth of the North and the South. The KIC is run by a South Korean committee that has a fifty-year lease which began in 2004. The park is expected to be complete in 2012, covering 25 square miles and employing 700,000 people. According to Yonhap News, 83 South Korean firms are operating in Kaesong employing approximately 35,000 North Korean workers.

Facts on the Kaesong City Tours: The city of Kaesong is a historically significant site for both Koreas. It served as the capital of the Koryo dynasty from 918 - 1392. The major tourist attraction is the many historic monuments from that era that have survived and it is not
surprising that history teachers form a large part of the visitors.

The Current Problem: Groups of North Korean human rights campaigners and defectors have launched hundreds of thousands of
balloon-borne leaflets into North Korea. The leaflets describe North Korean leader Kim Jong Il as a "devilish killer who views his people only as slaves." They say Kim Jong Il is the sole reason for North Korea's hunger and poverty. They also include information on the failing health of Kim and outline his family tree, which includes many children by different women; something frowned upon in conservative North Korea.

North Korea angrily decries the leaflets as a smear campaign against its leader Kim Jong-Il and has asked the south to put an end to the distribution of the leaflets, but they continue. The continued release of the leaflets has put a strain on already tense relations and resulted in the north threatening the expulsion of South Korean workers and the closure of the KIC. On November 12, North Korea announced it will close the overland border between the two countries on December 1st, thus setting the stage for making good on their threats.

North Korea Threatens Closure of the KIC: North Korea has called the leaflet campaign “psychological warfare,” and “a smear campaign against Kim Jong Il.” It says the failure of the South Korean government to halt the spread of the leaflets amounts to tacit approval and has threatened to expel all South Koreans and shut down the KIC, sever all ties with the south, and warns that it risks provoking military confrontation.

North Korea began its current spate of threats during a meeting of military officials from the two Koreas in Panmunjom on October 2nd. This was the first inter-Korean military dialogue since the Lee Myong Bak administration came into power. The meeting lasted only two hours and ended without any significant progress after the North's delegates warned of "grave consequences" for Seoul's spreading of propaganda leaflets. Pyongyang's delegation stated the consequences could include the barring of South Koreans from the North through the inter-Korean
border and the eviction of all South Koreans from the KIC as well as the South Koreans from the Mount Geumgang resort in the east.

Five days after a release of leaflets on October 10th, the Rodong Sinmun, a newspaper published by the North's ruling Workers' Party, carried a commentary with a new threat, "If the group of traitors keeps to the road of reckless confrontation with the DPRK (North Korea), defaming its dignity despite its repeated warnings, this will compel it to make a crucial decision including the total freeze of the North-South relations.” Leaflets were again released on October 27th and again on November 5th, each release followed by renewed threats from the north.

On November 9th, a five-member delegation, led by Lieutenant General Kim Yong-Chol, top policy maker at the National Defense Commission chaired by leader Kim Jong-Il, conducted an unprecedented inspection of the KIC, collecting information on infrastructure and South Korean firms there. South Korean managers reported "They asked some odd questions. They asked, for example, how long it would take for us to pull out," and “They did not show an amicable attitude either, saying they did not visit there just to give out business cards and they had nothing to talk about.”

South Korean Reactions: Seoul has asked the groups to refrain from sending propaganda leaflets in an apparent gesture to placate the north; however, the groups have continued sending the leaflets. Although the two Koreas agreed to cease propaganda activities in high-level military talks held in 2004, South Korea states it does not have the power to prohibit private citizens from releasing the leaflets.

The South's Unification Ministry, which handles inter-Korean relations, played down the threats, saying they do not reflect North Korea's official position. Experts on North Korea opined that the threats are “based on the assumption that South Korea will get so scared that it will somehow find a way to stop the civic groups from floating their balloons containing anti-Pyongyang leaflets.” However, a former South Korean unification minister said “North Korea is likely to act on its threat to partially evict South Korean firms from the inter-Korean joint industrial complex and Seoul needs to have measures ready for such developments.”

This announcement seems to have taken Seoul by surprise in the swiftness of its coming. Seoul probably expected something similar in the future, as evidenced by a meeting planned for tomorrow between representatives of the KIC companies and Unification Minister Kim Ha-Joong, in which the representatives are planning to ask the minister to halt the spreading of leaflets and to request contingency measures if Kaesong is shut down.

If the overland route is closed, it will mean South Korean companies in the KIC will, at least temporarily, have to shut down operations. It is also likely the north will make good on another threat and expel South Korean personnel from the KIC.

In response to this announcement, a spokesman for Hyundai Asan, the company which operates the KIC and also operates day trips to Kaesong City, stated he doesn’t expect the tours to be affected by this announcement. But given the level of seemingly genuine anger over the leaflets and the level of threats, the inspections, and now the announcement, it seems likely the closing of the border may be just the first step in ending, at least temporarily, North Korea’s cooperation in the KIC and will include suspending the tours.