Minerva could do 18 months in prison

Remember Minerva? No? Remember the blogger, supposedly a 31-year-old who self-taught economics and predicted the collapse of Lehman Bros? OK…well, anyway, he could face up to 18 months in jail if the Korean prosecutors office has it its way.

Minerva’s (his real name Park Dae-sung) crime: “falsely reporting that South Korea had barred banks from purchasing US currency.” Apparently the blogger will find out his fate on April 20th for posting the “inaccurate” story, which the prosecutors claim undermined the country’s credibility. Read The Associated Press report here.

I have to say, Minerva was just another blogger. I surf and read numerous blogs daily, and I even have a blog of my own. Some blogs are better than others, and some are very insightful, of course, written by some of the most renowned experts in their fields, but we all know we can’t believe everything we read or see on the Internet. I’ve posted some analytical pieces on my blog before and I intend to continue to do so in the future. I also expect the blogs I read everyday to continue to provide me the valuable insights. So, what happens when some of us get it wrong one day? I wonder what the Internet police will do then. Though I figure the Internet police will probably let us be. After all, matters of regional security, such as North Korean long-range missile program or the continuous expansion of Chinese influnce throughout Asia, and things like terrorism or pirates on the high seas are not that important when compared to something that hits much closer to home…like...wallet and authority.

Now, I, of course, don't think Park is really the blogger Minerva, but that is a whole different story that requires much more time and much, much, much more alcohol before I even think about touching...

North Korea's latest Tantrum...Closure of Kaesong Industrial Complex?

Yesterday, citing South Korea's failure to stop the leadlets and its failure to adhere to the 2000 and 2007 agreements (declarations on eventual peaceful unification, confidence-building measures, economic cooperation, and a permanent peace mechanism), North Korea announced "“we officially inform the south side that the actual crucial measure taken by the Korean People’s Army to strictly restrict and cut off all the overland passages through the Military Demarcation Line will take effect from December 1 as the first step in connection with the above-said development” and “The south Korean puppet authorities should never forget that the present inter-Korean relations are at the crucial crossroads of existence and total severance.” This comes after months of harsh rhetoric and threats to close down the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) . The north labels the leaflets as a smear campaign directed at its leader Kim Jong Il and warns it could lead to a military confrontation.

Facts on the KIC: A ground-breaking ceremony was held in Kaesong on June 30, 2003, for the construction of the KIC, one of the biggest inter-Korean economic projects. Planners intended the KIC to be not only a model of inter-Korean economic cooperation but also to contribute to the economic growth of the North and the South. The KIC is run by a South Korean committee that has a fifty-year lease which began in 2004. The park is expected to be complete in 2012, covering 25 square miles and employing 700,000 people. According to Yonhap News, 83 South Korean firms are operating in Kaesong employing approximately 35,000 North Korean workers.

Facts on the Kaesong City Tours: The city of Kaesong is a historically significant site for both Koreas. It served as the capital of the Koryo dynasty from 918 - 1392. The major tourist attraction is the many historic monuments from that era that have survived and it is not
surprising that history teachers form a large part of the visitors.

The Current Problem: Groups of North Korean human rights campaigners and defectors have launched hundreds of thousands of
balloon-borne leaflets into North Korea. The leaflets describe North Korean leader Kim Jong Il as a "devilish killer who views his people only as slaves." They say Kim Jong Il is the sole reason for North Korea's hunger and poverty. They also include information on the failing health of Kim and outline his family tree, which includes many children by different women; something frowned upon in conservative North Korea.

North Korea angrily decries the leaflets as a smear campaign against its leader Kim Jong-Il and has asked the south to put an end to the distribution of the leaflets, but they continue. The continued release of the leaflets has put a strain on already tense relations and resulted in the north threatening the expulsion of South Korean workers and the closure of the KIC. On November 12, North Korea announced it will close the overland border between the two countries on December 1st, thus setting the stage for making good on their threats.

North Korea Threatens Closure of the KIC: North Korea has called the leaflet campaign “psychological warfare,” and “a smear campaign against Kim Jong Il.” It says the failure of the South Korean government to halt the spread of the leaflets amounts to tacit approval and has threatened to expel all South Koreans and shut down the KIC, sever all ties with the south, and warns that it risks provoking military confrontation.

North Korea began its current spate of threats during a meeting of military officials from the two Koreas in Panmunjom on October 2nd. This was the first inter-Korean military dialogue since the Lee Myong Bak administration came into power. The meeting lasted only two hours and ended without any significant progress after the North's delegates warned of "grave consequences" for Seoul's spreading of propaganda leaflets. Pyongyang's delegation stated the consequences could include the barring of South Koreans from the North through the inter-Korean
border and the eviction of all South Koreans from the KIC as well as the South Koreans from the Mount Geumgang resort in the east.

Five days after a release of leaflets on October 10th, the Rodong Sinmun, a newspaper published by the North's ruling Workers' Party, carried a commentary with a new threat, "If the group of traitors keeps to the road of reckless confrontation with the DPRK (North Korea), defaming its dignity despite its repeated warnings, this will compel it to make a crucial decision including the total freeze of the North-South relations.” Leaflets were again released on October 27th and again on November 5th, each release followed by renewed threats from the north.

On November 9th, a five-member delegation, led by Lieutenant General Kim Yong-Chol, top policy maker at the National Defense Commission chaired by leader Kim Jong-Il, conducted an unprecedented inspection of the KIC, collecting information on infrastructure and South Korean firms there. South Korean managers reported "They asked some odd questions. They asked, for example, how long it would take for us to pull out," and “They did not show an amicable attitude either, saying they did not visit there just to give out business cards and they had nothing to talk about.”

South Korean Reactions: Seoul has asked the groups to refrain from sending propaganda leaflets in an apparent gesture to placate the north; however, the groups have continued sending the leaflets. Although the two Koreas agreed to cease propaganda activities in high-level military talks held in 2004, South Korea states it does not have the power to prohibit private citizens from releasing the leaflets.

The South's Unification Ministry, which handles inter-Korean relations, played down the threats, saying they do not reflect North Korea's official position. Experts on North Korea opined that the threats are “based on the assumption that South Korea will get so scared that it will somehow find a way to stop the civic groups from floating their balloons containing anti-Pyongyang leaflets.” However, a former South Korean unification minister said “North Korea is likely to act on its threat to partially evict South Korean firms from the inter-Korean joint industrial complex and Seoul needs to have measures ready for such developments.”

This announcement seems to have taken Seoul by surprise in the swiftness of its coming. Seoul probably expected something similar in the future, as evidenced by a meeting planned for tomorrow between representatives of the KIC companies and Unification Minister Kim Ha-Joong, in which the representatives are planning to ask the minister to halt the spreading of leaflets and to request contingency measures if Kaesong is shut down.

If the overland route is closed, it will mean South Korean companies in the KIC will, at least temporarily, have to shut down operations. It is also likely the north will make good on another threat and expel South Korean personnel from the KIC.

In response to this announcement, a spokesman for Hyundai Asan, the company which operates the KIC and also operates day trips to Kaesong City, stated he doesn’t expect the tours to be affected by this announcement. But given the level of seemingly genuine anger over the leaflets and the level of threats, the inspections, and now the announcement, it seems likely the closing of the border may be just the first step in ending, at least temporarily, North Korea’s cooperation in the KIC and will include suspending the tours.

Obama Aides Meet with North Korean Officials

Well, this did not take long at all....

North Korean officials and U.S. President-elect Barack Obama’s Korean affairs advisers have held their first meeting.

Director of the North Korean Foreign Ministry’s U.S. affairs bureau, Ri Gun, is visiting New York to discuss the nuclear verification issue with the U.S. His delegation on Saturday attended a conference of Korean Peninsula experts hosted by the U.S. National Committee on American Foreign Policy. The North Korean officials listened to presentations on a range of topics, including Washington’s foreign policy stance during the presidential transition and the normalization of U.S.-North Korean ties.

The U.S. President-elect’s chief aide on Korean Peninsula policies, Frank Januzzi, also attended the conference. The National Committee says the event was held to introduce the new U.S. administrative officials to North Korea, pave the way for the six-way nuclear process and boost bilateral understanding of pending issues.
The committee confirmed the attendance of former U.S. officials, including ex-Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and ex-Ambassador to Seoul Donald Gregg. But it refused to comment on whether new administrative officials attended the meeting. [KBS Global]

Frank Januzzi's past record on North Korea should give everyone some indication of the direction of President Obama’s North Korea policy. Januzzi is a believer in the philosophy that if we only understood North Korea better we could get it to change.

North Korea is not going to give up its nuclear ambitions anytime soon since that is its single largest bargaining chip with the US and the world. Its leaders will continue to employ the policy of extortion - which has worked amazingly well so far - and attempt to change the US rather than them changing. After all, North Korea is not the ones who are anctious about having a nuclear program....the US is.

I guess we'll just have to see how Januzzi will handle things this time around.

Groupthink

As I watched the development surrounding the US beef for the past two months, I have come to realize once again the dangers of groupthink and how easy it is for people to get caught up in the mob mentality. As the discord over the US beef issue grew, it became very clear very quickly to me that these protets would get out of hand and it was matter of when and not if. As the groupthink mentality started to take over, it very quickly became an us vs. them propsition. So, anyone who, in the eyes of the protesters, did not support the cause instantly became public enemy number one. Recently, this groupthink mentality has gotten to the point of criminal. The highlight is the recent netizens' movement to boycott companies who advertise in the three main South Korean newspapers, the Chosun, Dong-A and JoongAng dailies. This movement, however, has degenerated from a consumer movement to criminal cyber and telephone terrorism.

I came across an op-ed piece written by the former President Kim Dae-Joong today titled A Lone Protest Against the Protests and I could not agree with him more. You must understand...this is by no means a normal thing for me...to agree with the former president, but on this one, I fully agree with him.

It's NOT About the Beef....

Ever since South Korea agreed to resume its import of the US beef, there has been mounting voices against the resumption...these voices were there before, but they got louder and louder as the time went on (probably because they know they can't stop the flow of beef, and the time for the US beef to hit the South Korean market is getting closer by the second)... over the long weekend and going into this week, the voices against US beef is reaching their climax...I think. It's gotten to the point where anti-US beef organizations in South Korea are sending messages to public school teachers urging them to teach students about why US beef is not safe for human consumption. The political parties are coming up with ways to undo the trade agreements as well as plans to persuade the citizens to calm down. Some South Korean political parties are clamoring for a re-negotiation with the US. US response to all of this is one of calm assurance...of course, what else could the US do? And even if it could, why would it? Anyway, as someone who eats American beef nearly everyday (despite the claimed dangers of mad cow disease), I would just like to point out something to everyone who is so worried about the US beef entering the Korean market... hate to say it, but this Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) is not about the beef. Beef, in fact, is only serving as a diversion from those issues that may be more controversial in each of the countries. So, what are some of the issues that beef is serving as the smoke screen for? Well, they are pharmaceuticals, automobile, service (financial, insurance, medical, etc), steel and electronics industries. So, without going into elaborate details on how these industries could affect the Korean and US economies when the FTA goes into effect, one can already guess that what's really important here is that...It's not about the beef. So, for those of you who were out protesting on the Seoul streets...and for those of you who got on Korean TV talking about the dangers of the US beef...I fully understand your concerns (whether that be health or financial), but you really missed the point.