North Korea Fires Coastal Artillery at South Korean Island of Yeonpyeong

Following Thread from our Friends at KGS Nightwatch

On 23 November (Korean Standard Time), North Korean coastal artillery fired dozens of rounds at a village on South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island (aka, Y-P Do). Four South Korean soldiers were wounded and multiple houses were set afire.

South Korean artillery returned fire and scrambled combat aircraft. The armed forces are on high alert and promised to respond strongly to any further shelling, according to the National Defense Ministry.

Comment: The shelling is ex officio an act of war and starts another round of crisis. YP-Do is one of the five South Korean island in the Yellow Sea, northwest of Seoul. It is within easy artillery range from the North Korean coast.

The few facts suggest this is another provocation, like the sinking of the corvette Chonan in March, to show the temerity of the heir apparent. He supposedly was the brilliant mastermind of the sinking, to demonstrate his leadership worthiness. His handlers apparently intend to use these kinds of provocation to be the signature of Kim Jung-un's leadership so that the Allies do not try to take advantage of his youth and inexperience, presumably.

Ironically, earlier during the Watch, news services reported North Korea offered to negotiate the termination of one of its nuclear arms programs, most likely the now terminated plutonium program.

The sequence of three significant developments in 72 hours suggests a plan to switch international attention back to North Korea. The North's behavior during the long nuclear crisis that began in 1993 is punctuated with provocative spikes of this nature. They occurred whenever the leadership judged North Korea was not receiving the attention they thought it deserved and when their initiatives were not generating the cash and aid commitments they expected and which they need for regime survival.

The periods of tension have been of varying duration, but they invariably ended with talks and promises of aid and cooperation. That is the usual patttern.

Occurring just two days after South Korea declared the Sunshine Policy a failure, the shelling also probably is part of the North's response to South Korea's official end of its conciliatory engagement policy and programs. The message is that the North will reciprocate hard-line actions for hard-line actions, which is the customary symmetrical formulation in the North's threats. But in this competition, the North can be annoying, but is too weak in every respect to be a match for South Korea and will not have Chinese backing for any offensive provocations.

Thus at a time when the US has committed to expand the war in Afghanistan and China is busy building is sphere of influence in Southeast Asia, the North has sent reminders about a very different and vastly more lethal war that is still possible in northeast Asia, despite being increasingly pointless.

The risk of large scale fighting remains low because North Korea lacks the energy - human and otherwise - to sustain it. The North can start a conflict and kill lots of people, but has no ability to sustain a war; cannot defend itself or its population from an overwhelming Allied counterattack and will lose everything built by Kim Il sung since 1953 in a war. Most importantly, the highest leaders know it.

However, the risk of more shelling remains high for now. After the shelling stops, meetings with the UN Command at Panmunjom should clarify what the North wants now.

US Nuclear Weapons on South Korean Soil?

Below thread from our friends at KGS Nightwatch.

South Korean National Defense Minister Kim Tae Young said today that South Korea will discuss redeploying U.S. nuclear weapons on its soil with the United States at the Extended Deterrence Policy Committee meeting in December. The context of the statement was the news that North Korea has an industrial scale and operational uranium enrichment plant of 2,000 centrifuges.

The United States does not have immediate plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea, a Pentagon spokesman said on 22 November. The United States is consulting international partners to decide how to proceed in light of a report by a US nuclear scientist describing a small, industrial-scale uranium enrichment plant he was shown during a visit to North Korea in November, the spokesman said.

Comment: This is saber rattling. Meanwhile officials in South Korea and the US declared the weekend report about the new North Korean nuclear facilities does not create a crisis because the US and South Korea knew it all along. Japan, a bit more realistically, declared the facility an intolerable threat to security; apparently Japanese officials did not know about this all along.

There is no crisis yet. Most countries that have plutonium processes for making fissile material also have uranium enrichment processes. The original reactor at Yongbyon produced plutonium, but the North has been attempting to build a uranium enrichment cascade, with Pakistani help at one time, for over a decade. The news is that it succeeded pretty much in plain view, according to the US scientists.

There have been two schools of analytical thought about the North's weapons programs. One school holds that the weapons programs may be negotiable if the right package of incentives and sanctions may be found. The other school is that North Korea will never negotiate away its nuclear weapons because it has no other leverage over the US. To date, the hard line school is far ahead of the negotiators. Japan is more aligned with the hard line school of thought and that may be as worrisome as North Korea's antics.

Regional Update for 28 October

China/Taiwan-US: Taiwan will ask the United States to postpone the sale of two advanced weapons systems to save money, a senior legislator with ties to the military said on 28 October, Reuters reported.

Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: A decision to not spend money usually and obviously means that money will be saved. However, the timing of the announcement is propitious because it neutralizes temporarily an issue that might have blemished the US President's visit to India late next week. Taiwan will want something in return.

North Korea-Cuba: Chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army Vice Marshal Ri Yong Ho, left Pyongyang on 28 October to lead a delegation to Cuba, The Associated Press reported.

Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: Reports of a close relationship between North Korea and Cuba extend for decades in the past. They include allegations of large North Korean troop deployments to Cuba.

Nothing significant has ever been proven. Still the visits have continued. Cuba and North Korea share the distinction with Vietnam and Laos of being the last surviving Marxist-Leninist states.

China-Pakistan: Chinese Major General Yang Hui, director general of the Intelligence Directorate, visited Chief of Army Staff General Kayani at General Headquarters on 28 October, Associated Press of Pakistan reported. The two discussed matters of professional interest, according to Pakistan's Inter Services Public Relations.

Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: A visit by a Chinese intelligence general to Pakistan usually signifies a problem. The usual problem is that Pakistan is harboring, aiding, training and abetting anti-Han Chinese Islamic terrorists in the 42 terrorist camps that Pakistani intelligence sustains in Pakistani Kashmir.

Chinese intelligence officials seldom visit unless there is a problem. The Chinese do not seem concerned that Pakistani-trained terrorists kill Indians or Americans, but they do object to Pakistan providing or tolerating training of Xinjiang Uighurs who want to kill Han Chinese.

Regional Update for 27 October

At a meeting in Kaesong to discuss family reunions on Wednesday, North Korea demanded South Korea provide 500,000 tons of rice and 300,000 tons of fertilizer n return for concessions in the reunion program.

"North Korean delegates linked the issue of separated families and the aid, indicating that they could make concessions if rice and fertilizer aid are given," an unidentified South Korea official said. In response to the request for aid, South Korean representatives replied that they were not in a position to give an answer and would refer it to government authorities.

Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: A reunion event will begin Saturday at the jointly-run Mount Kumgang resort on the North's east coast and will last six days, linking 100 people from each side with long-separated family members. Seoul wants to hold similar reunions once a month between March and November, since many elderly people die before getting a chance for such a meeting.

The North's choice of venue for presenting an enormous demand leaves no doubt that the country has a severe food shortage (so, what else is new?). Moreover it does not anticipate good harvests in 2011 without South Korean aid (again…nothing new here).

Curiously, the North's version of communism stresses a home-grown, mythical notion of self-reliance. The facts are that since the Korean War the North has never been self-reliant in anything Without Soviet and Chinese aid of every kind and South Korean and Japanese trade, the country would have imploded decades ago.

Today's demand made no mention of "chuche," the North's term for self-reliance. The North is desperate for help.

Regional Update for 26 October

North Korea: Update. The United States will lead the United Nations Command in a round of colonel-level talks with North Korea at the border village of Panmunjom on 27 October, a military source said, Yonhap reported.

China-Japan: Update. Chinese protesters held an anti-Japanese demonstration near the Japanese Consulate in Chongqing, China, on the 26th . A consulate official said between 1,000 and 2,000 people gathered, including onlookers, and consular security was strengthened and plainclothes police were present. Another witness said the protesters chanted slogans about the disputed Senkaku islands.

China-Southeast Asia: Mainichi reported last week that commercial satellite imagery detected one and possibly two Type 093 nuclear-powered attack submarines docked at a Chinese navy base in Sanya, Hainan Island, in the South China Sea. The image was taken in early September.

In 2008, a Type 094 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine was detected at Sanya, but is not assessed to be based there.

Comment by our friends at KGS NightWatch: China is building and basing submarines to enforce its maritime claims in the East and South China Seas. Experts rate the technology in the Type 093 as a generation or more behind the US, but it is better than anything in the navies of the Southeast Asian states that dispute China's sea claims.

Regional Update for 25 October

Japan-China: The Japanese government formally protested to the Chinese government on 25 October the presence of Chinese patrol boats near the Senkaku Islands. Japanese authorities detected two Chinese patrol boats late Sunday in Japan's "contiguous zone" but did not cross into Japanese territorial waters, Kyodo reported, citing Japan's coast guard.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku said in the protest message that seeing Chinese patrol boats made his government feel "uncomfortable. He also said that Japan will step up its monitoring activities around the Islands, according to Kyodo.

China's foreign ministry claimed that its boats' patrols are both legal and based on need.

Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: Mainstream international press did not report the Chinese patrol boat activity nor at least three more anti-Japanese protests and demonstrations over the weekend. The confrontation over the Senkakus continues.

South Korea-US: For the record. A Pentagon spokesman today rejected claims by South Korean media that a planned U.S.-South Korea naval exercise had been postponed due to Chinese protests, Reuters reported. The spokesman told reporters that authorities in Washington and in Seoul were unable to reach a scheduling agreement, adding the exercises were intended to send a message to North Korea and should not be China's concern.

Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: The comment by the spokesman misses the point that the North has moved closer to China during the succession period than at any time since the government of Deng Xiaoping in the early 1980s. The US is much less significant than it was a year ago in North Korea's strategic calculations. Since China agreed to assume overwatch responsibility for the Kim regime this year, the Allies have succeeded in sending no significant "messages" to North Korea.

Regional Update for 24 October

South Korea and the United States have canceled the planned combined naval exercise in the West Sea (Yellow Sea) scheduled for late October, South Korean state-run broadcaster KBS reported on 24 October, citing a senior South Korean official.


The decision was made in order to avoid irritating neighboring countries (really one neighboring country – China) and to improve conditions for the G20 Summit in Seoul on 11 and 12 November, Yonhap reported, citing another unnamed government source. The US aircraft carrier USS George Washington is unlikely to participate in any other combined exercises with South Korea in 2010, and the two allies will also delay the large-scale amphibious landing exercises planned for late October.

Comment (This comment is based exclusively on open source information which always is incomplete.): The cancellation appears to be a gratuitous conciliatory gesture to China to ensure its participation in the economic summit, where it is expected to be generally uncooperative, by some analysts.


The concern is that this is the second major security issue in Asia in which the US appears to have deferred to China's sensibilities, rather than assert the prerogatives of a great power.
 This cancellation would appear to negate all the brave language US spokesman have used to assert allied solidarity in confronting North Korea' aggression in sinking the South Korean corvette, Cheonan, in March. In the perception of the international community, the US backed down every time China protested the scheduling of joint exercises aimed at North Korea.


After seven months, North Korea still has gotten away with sinking an Allied patrol ship.


The second issue was the Chinese reaction to Japan's arrest of a Chinese fishing boat and crew in the Senkakus after the Chinese boat rammed a Japanese patrol boat. Only the Secretary of State stood with the Japanese against China. The rest of the US administration did not and has not.


Pro-US leaders in Asia are well advised to remember 2010 as a pivotal year for reassessing the dominant power in Asia.

Regional Update for October 22

Following update from our friends at KGS NightWatch

South Korea-North Korea: A report to the UN Secretary General indicated North Korea is in danger of another food crisis this winter because of poor harvests. Nevertheless, a South Korean Unification Ministry spokesman reaffirmed the Lee government policy of not providing large scale food aid to North Korea, regardless of need unless and until the political atmosphere improves.

The government in Seoul will continue to approve private humanitarian relief, such a recent shipment of 5,000 tons of rice and other supplies for flood victims.

Comment from KGS NightWatch: The South still wants the North to apologize for the sinking of its patrol ship last March. Prior to 2008 and the South's election of the hard line Lee administration, the South annually provided 400,000 tons of rice and 300,000 tons of fertilizer to the North.

North Korea-China: For the record. Vice Chairman of China's Central Military Commission Gua Boxiong will lead a delegation of senior Chinese military officers to North Korea on 23 October, according to the Ministry of National Defense, Xinhua reported on 22 October. The delegation will attend activities to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the entry of the Chinese People's Volunteers into the Korean front and meet with the North's military leaders to discuss issues of mutual concern, said Chinese spokesman Geng Yansheng.

China: Update. Tibetan language demonstrations spread in northwestern China, as students in Tsolho and Golog prefectures demanded the right to study in their language, according to Free Tibet and Agence France-Presse. Some 2,000 students marched to the local government building in Chabcha, chanting demands for Tibetan language freedoms. Police and teachers turned them away. The Dawu police restricted movement of local residents following student protests in the area.

Comment from KGS NightWatch: This is a minor outbreak of unrest but it continues to showcase the Han Chinese policy of forced assimilation of minorities.

US-China-India: President Obama will visit India between 6 and 9 November. The forthcoming trip has generated significant unease in China about US strategy in Asia.

Since Thursday, a half dozen or more Chinese newspapers and strategists have complained about the US relationship with India. A National Defense University official wrote, "India's goals of becoming a global power cannot be realized by just following the US. This writer accused the US of "building a strategic fence" with Japan and South Korea as the backbone and a carapace of India, Vietnam and other nations having territorial disputes with China.

This official wrote, "India's politicians should be aware that as the two weaker sides of a triangular relationship, it is very important for India and China to maintain stability to prevent the US from profiting from their disputes….The US fence around China is weak but could become an iron wall if China makes strategic mistakes."

Earlier, a Chinese air force colonel wrote about a crescent ring encircling China from Japan to Afghanistan. A professor at Beijing University's School of International Studies said, "If you look around Asia and see what the US is doing, it is not surprising and difficult to understand America's needs in South Asia."

A Fudan University analyst wrote in the China Daily that India and China are made for each other but must guard against western elements. "Some Indian media raised a hue and cry over so-called 'border invasion' by China last year and the recent suspension of bilateral military exchanges,'' said the commentary."Some Western countries and media are trying to use this to drive a wedge between the two neighbors."

Comment from KGS NightWatch: These two ancient cultures have had no significant interaction until modern times. But for colonial era land disputes, they are not natural enemies. However, their aspirations for world power stature have converted them into at least strategic competitors, sometime rivals and potential enemies.


China's rise to great power stature impedes India's dominance in South Asia. China has developed proxies or allies on every Indian border, which undercuts the credibility of its complaints about encirclement. China has spurred India to look to its strategic space in South Asia and to increase security cooperation with East Asia powers with which it has never had significant interaction … before the rise of China.


It is curious that Chinese international affairs commentators evince so much insecurity, for a country that considers itself the equal in many areas of the United States and has become so aggressive in asserting its right to be the leader of Asia.

Comments from the Author of the Blog: For a country that speaks of peace so often, everything from its official government positions to academic papers its scholars publish, it sure seems that its government, its military, and a significant portion of its academia look upon the world through the lens of realism - the theory where peace could only be achieved by either becoming the dominant power or by balancing against the dominant power...the things that make you go hmmm...... 

India-Pakistan: Indian Army Chief of the Army Staff General V K Singh said on 22 October that interceptions and border monitoring reports have indicated that there are 500 to 600 militants on the Pakistani side of the Line of Control preparing to infiltrate India's state of Jammu and Kashmir, The Times of India reported.

Intelligence inpurts indicate the leadership of Hizbul Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami and Jaish-e-Mohammed have conducted reconnaissance along the Line of Control in advance of infiltration operations. General Singh reported there are teams of eight to nine who are trying to cross the border every day.

Singh also said the anti-India terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan is intact and 42 camps are being run, including newly created camps in Pakistani Kashmir. Infiltration has risen in late summer, as it seasonally does. The Indian Army recorded 10 infiltration incidents in June, six in July and 33 in August.

General Singh judged that about 20-25 infiltration attempts succeeded, which is indicated by the fact that 12 to 15 terrorists were killed in the last 15-20 days. "This shows people have come from somewhere," he said. He concluded that Pakistan perceives Kashmir as an "unfinished agenda.

Comment from KGS NightWatch: Infiltration from Pakistan into Indian Kashmir always increases before winter. The number of Kashmiri militant camps is as high as it has been in the past ten years. This means the progress in reducing the number of camps under Musharraf has been reversed. The camps and the infiltration infrastructure into Kashmir cannot exist without official Pakistani government support.


Even allowing for an anti-Pakistani bias, General Singh's account of conditions along the Line of Control is consistent with autumn conditions in past years. His statements are a reminder that Pakistan remains a state sponsor of terror and continues to use terror as an instrument of state policy against India.

Regional Update for September 13

New Zealand-China: A Chinese naval training ship and a frigate arrived in Auckland, New Zealand on 11 September for a four-day visit, New Zealand and Chinese press reported. Chinese Rear Admiral Leng said the visit was part of efforts to construct a harmonious world and a harmonious ocean. He added that it was also conducive to improving the level of military cooperation between the two countries.

New Zealand is the fourth stop on the Chinese Navy ships' itinerary, which has included calls at Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu and Tonga, and will take them to Australia next.

Japan-China: Update. A Chinese government law enforcement ship on 11 September asked a Japanese coast guard survey ship operating in Japan's exclusive economic zone to stop its activities, according to coast guard officials.

The encounter occurred about 280 kilometers (173 miles) north-northwest off Okinawa Island. The Japanese ship continued surveying operations for nearly two more hours. Japan later delivered an official complaint to China. The Japanese will not back down from the Chinese, with our without US encouragement.

South Korea-North Korea: Update. South Korea announced today , 13 September, that is will provide aid to North Korea, but repeated that the government in Pyongyang was responsible for the sinking of the South Korean corvette Cheonan in March.

Over the weekend, the North offered to resume reunions of families divided by the Korean War's outcome. None have occurred in over a year.

It also accepted the South Korean Red Cross' offer of $8.3 million in aid, which includes 5,000 tones of rice, 10,000 tons of cement and 3 million packs of instant noodles. Red Cross chief Yoo Chong-ha said the South Korean government is the main financier of the aid.

According to Red Cross figures, about 80,000 elderly South Koreans seek a brief meeting with family left in the North after the war.

Comments from KGS NightWatch: The apparent peace offensive is almost certainly camouflage to obscure the North's failure to convene the 3rd Party Conference. The overtures have no significance except to prolong a benign strategic environment, while the North's leaders sort out their next step.

North Korea: The South Korean television channel YTN reported the 3rd Party Conference has been delayed because of the health of leader Kim Jong-il. Unidentified South Korean intelligence officials supposedly told the station that Kim's health worsened after his five-day trip to northeast China late last month.

The station's report said the Conference would likely be held soon since the 68-year-old's health was not bad enough to warrant a cancellation.

Comments from KGS NightWatch: Our assessment is that Kim's health has been so poor that he is non compos mentis most of the time, except after dialysis, which well-informed observers say occurs thrice weekly. We also judge he has so many body doubles and it is sometime difficult to distinguish them - presumably the Chinese experts on Korea could identify the real Kim from a double.

The Conference does not seem to have taken place yet, which North and South Korean media blame on the exertions of Kim's trip to China. The subtext is the Chinese are to blame for the Dear Leader's present infirmity. There is no way to know who went to China or what was accomplished. The North has raised its shroud of obscurity and might declare the Conference a success tomorrow!

Regional Update for September 10

Japan-China: The captain of a Chinese fishing boat was taken to a Japanese court on Ishigaki Island in Okinawa Prefecture on 10 September. Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi demanded the "immediate and unconditional" release of the captain and other crewmembers, according to news relays.


Yang summoned Japanese Ambassador to China Uichiro Niwa to lodge a third protest with Tokyo over what the Chinese Foreign Ministry described as an "illegal detention." Yang told Niwa that Beijing is determined to defend Chinese sovereignty of the Diaoyu Islands, where the ramming incident occurred, and demanded the unconditional release of the boat and crew, according to the ministry

Japan asserts the incident occurred in Japanese territorial waters and that Japan is handling the case in line with domestic law, Niwa told the Chinese. On 10 September a Japanese court ruled that prosecutors can detain the captain of the Chinese fishing boat for 10 days.

In reaction to and protest of the court ruling, the Chinese announced a postponement of a second round of negotiation over disputed island territories. Lest the Japanese miss the point, the Chinese statement described the postponement as a "grave protest."

Comments from KGS NightWatch: Japan and South Korea require little encouragement in standing up to China on territorial or other disputes. In part, this is because they see China's export dependent modern sector as a competitor with their own export-driven economies. Neither Japan nor South Korea is inclined to accommodate China or accept it as a regional leader.


An epochal strategic shift continues to evolve in which Asian States are not only taking responsibility for the security of Asia, they are shaping the nature of the strategic relationships. Japan and South Korea will not roll over for China the way North Korea is doing,with or without US assistance.

South Korea-US: A US Defense Department spokesman announced today, 10 September, that the aircraft carrier USS George Washington will participate with South Korea in war games in international waters of the Yellow Sea off the Korean Peninsula. The US spokesman said the deployment is not aimed at challenging China, but is a warning to North Korea.

Comments from KGS NightWatch: After much hemming and hawing, the US appears to have made a decision in favor of strategic dominance and in favor of US Allies in Asia. Apparently thanks for the extra time to think straight goes to the intervention of a typhoon. The typhoon delayed Allied anti-submarine warfare training in the Yellow Sea and gave the US leadership time to make a decision in favor of American allies and interests.

China-Taiwan: Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) will conduct a maritime rescue drill the week of 13 September with China's Maritime Search and Rescue Center, Taiwanese Central News Agency reported 10 September. The drill will be held in waters off southeastern China, between Taiwan's Kinmen Island and Xiamen, China.

Taiwan's CGA will send nine patrol boats, including a 500-ton patrol vessel, and helicopters to Kinmen. All participating ships and rescue teams will carry flags that symbolize the joint drill, CGA officials said, in an attempt to avoid territorial disputes.

Comments from KGS NightWatch: The drill will be the first time the two coastal patrol agencies will have held joint exercises.

Burma (Myanmar)-China: The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has begun construction of China-Myanmar oil and natural gas pipelines, according to Chinese media. The announcement coincided with a ground-breaking ceremony for a 200,000 barrel-per-day oil refinery in Anning city, Yunnan Province, China.

According to the CNPC statement, the company wants to complete the China section of the pipelines, as well as the refinery, by 2013. The oil pipeline, which will have a capacity of 440,000 barrels per day, will wind 771 kilometers (479 miles) through Myanmar, then stretch 1,631 kilometers though China before ending in Chongqing.

The natural gas pipeline will have a 12 billion cubic meter capacity, and will span 793 kilometers in Myanmar and 1,727 kilometers in China before ending in Guangxi region. The company did not disclose whether or when all three projects would receive final approval from China's National Development and Reform Commission, the body in charge of economic planning and pricing.

Comments from KGS NightWatch: The significance of this information plus other recent reports about China building a railroad through Burma is that they reinforce the assessment that Chinese leaders see Burma as a gateway for channeling natural resources to China.


This symbolizes the next step in China's economic imperialism by creating a network of vertical and horizontal monopolies on a global scale that gather and ship back to China the resources from concessions in Third World countries that the Chinese already have secured.


By using Chinese-made Burmese ports and infrastructure, natural resources from Africa and the Middle East can reach hubs in southern China and avoid the hazards of transiting the Straits of Malacca and Singapore and the South China Sea.

Regional Update for September 9

A Foreign Ministry source said Beijing has deployed a "law enforcement ship" to the region in the East China Sea where a Chinese trawler collided with two Japanese coast guard vessels.


The action is an effort to protect Chinese fishermen, the Ministry said.

A ministry spokeswoman called Tokyo's intentions to apply Japanese domestic law to the case of the Chinese trawler that rammed a Japanese coast guard ship absurd and illegal. The spokeswoman suggested the case could have a serious impact on bilateral relations.

A Japanese coast guard spokeswoman said an inspection of the trawler has begun, as well as an interrogation of the 14 fishermen who were on board. The fishing boat is docked off Ishigaki Island in Okinawa prefecture.

Comments from KGS NightWatch: Japanese commentaries about the event conclude the Chinese trawler deliberately rammed the Coast Guard ships so as to create an incident. The Chinese reaction seems to reinforce that Japanese conclusion rather than refute it, as might have been expected from an emerging regional leader, as the Chinese describe their nation.


The Chinese have responded with increased law enforcement capabilities instead of a statesmanlike appeal to maintain regional stability. The stationing of one or more law enforcement ships in a disputed maritime region of East Asia matches one of several Chinese tactics for asserting China's claims to the South China Sea up to the limits of the territorial seas of Southeast Asian states.

Regional Update for September 8

Premier Choe Yong Rim of North Korea said 8 September that hastening economic growth as a way to improve living standards is of critical importance for North Korea. Speaking at a national assembly marking the founding of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Choe said the public and the army should work to develop agriculture and light industry, as well as metalwork, electricity, coal and railway infrastructure.


Comments from KGS NightWatch: The premier's public statement is significant for several reasons. First it suggests the 3rd Party Conference has not begun. More importantly, it is the latest manifestation that Kim Jong-il's government has made a major change in strategic priorities in favor of non-military development. Choe's comments are the most explicit to date in directing that the army should support the civilian sectors in promoting general prosperity.

Old hands will recall that Kim Il-sung, President forever, reached the same conclusion in 1993. Kim Jong-il's Father suspended the seven-year national planning system in December 1993 because it failed. He reprioritized national activity as agriculture-- food production, consumer goods for daily living, goods for export and goods to support the armed forces. This order of effort had no precedent in Korean communism. North Koreans were malnourished in danger of starving.

Kim Jong-il, under threat of a military revolt and for his survival, rejected the legacy of his Father and made military production first, from mid-1994. Sixteen years later and facing death, Kim apparently has had an epiphany about the wisdom of his Father. Once again , under Kim's leadership, North Koreans are malnourished in danger of starving.

The elder Kim recognized that the state and the army could not survive unless the people from whom they are drawn and on whom they depend are healthy. Kim Jong-il is late in reaching that insight.

The message for outsiders is the infrastructure that supports the North's military capabilities is hollow. Kim Jong-il's rule has been a waste of time and resources, repeating mistakes his father made. Nevertheless, the North Korean people will never be permitted to draw those conclusions.

The North's media and sympathetic commentaries in Japan ascribe the new priorities to the third son, Kim Jong-eun. That callow youth has not dealt with the entrenched vice marshals and corps commanders of the Korean Peoples Army. Nor has his mentor and regent Chang Song-taek, who is a party aficionado, not a military man.

Thus Readers might expect the 3rd Party Conference to endorse a new set of strategic priorities in which food production is the highest national priority. That does not mean the Army will follow the Party Conference's lead. More later.

Regional Update for September 7

China-Burma (Myanmar): China hailed Myanmar as a "friendly neighbor" and warned the world not to meddle in its upcoming election. General Than Shwe, the head of Burma's military junta, arrived in Beijing for a state visit with President Hu Jintao. Than Shwe's visit will last four days during which he will meet all the top officials.


Comments by KGS NightWatch: Today's praise plus warning expose the fundamental difference between the Chinese communist ideas of democracy and those of the West, even taking into account the imperfect nature of Western voting practices. The fact of a vote is important in authoritarian Asian states; they approve of the legitimacy that voting lends authoritarian rule. The idea the outcome might be determined by the electorate, however, is alien to this political philosophy.


Thus the Chinese could with a straight face endorse the already ham-fistedly contrived Burmese elections - what do Burmese generals know about democracy?


In a strategic sense, the Burmese leaders are engaged in a dangerous policing balancing act to retain some freedom of action between India and China. Than Shwe's visit indicates the Burmese junta prefers to tilt towards China more than India.

China-India: Yesterday, 6 September Indian Prime Minister Singh told New Delhi newspaper editors that, ""China would like to have a foothold in South Asia, and we have to reflect on this reality." India had to be aware of this, and also of a "new assertiveness among the Chinese - and it was difficult to tell which way it will go."

Today, 7 September, in an effort to downplay Prime Minister Singh's remarks, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Jiang Yu said China is committed to safeguarding peace and stability in Asia, including South Asia. Jiang said China is one of the important members of Asia, and that seeking common development with it, South Asia and other countries is in the common interest of "all of us."

Comments from KGS NightWatch: Several features of the exchange are worth noting. First the Indians are aware of and are monitoring Chinese inroads in the Indian Ocean region, which they claim as their sphere of influence. Second, the Indians describe this as new assertiveness, a term not yet recognized in Western commentaries. Third, the Chinese attempt to assuage Indian concerns is actually a deliberate challenge in which China claims interests in al South Asia, as well as East Asia.

China-Iran: China's Railways Minister Liu Zhijun will visit Tehran on 12 September to sign a contract between Iran and a Chinese company to build a $2 billion rail link to Iran, according to Iranian Transport Minister Hamid Behbahani. Transport ministers from Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Iran are expected to gather in Dushanbe in October to firm up the deal for a 2,000-kilometer (1,200-mile) route that links China and Iran.

Comments for KGS NightWatch: For more than a decade Chinese leaders have talked about linking Chinese rails with systems in Central Asia at meetings of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Within the past five years, the Chinese have backed their talk with investment.


China has railroad projects in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Burma and now Iran. It has road and pipeline projects in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.


Many of the projects are scheduled to be completed by 2012. Their cumulative effect would be to shift the economic focus of Central Asian states from Moscow to Beijing. The advantage China brings is that the Chinese rails would use standard gauge, making it possible to ship from the Pacific Coast of China to Turkey without changing bogeys or moving containers in order to accommodate different rail gauges.


Until the Chinese projects become operational, all rail traffic from Asia to Europe will continue to rely on Russian gauge railroads and multiple gauge changes in Asia and at the border of European states.

Afghanistan: NATO and Afghan forces hope to clear the Taliban out of Kandahar by the end of November, according to a statement by the commander of international forces in the south of Afghanistan. NATO forces have secured Kandahar city and are now targeting the surrounding districts of Arghandab, Zharai and Panjwai. British Major General Nick Carter said that 15,000 to 17,000 Afghan security forces and 15,000 international troops have numerical superiority over an estimated 1,000 Taliban insurgents in and around the city.

Comments by KGS NightWatch: The only significance of this report it that it is the first open source estimate of the number of Taliban in Kandahar. The force ratio of 30 allied troops for each Taliban continues to favor the Taliban.

Regional Update for September 6

South Korea-US: The Allies announced that a typhoon has prompted them to postpone the anti-submarine warfare exercise in the Yellow Sea for safety reasons.


North Korea-South Korea: The Korean Central News Agency said on 6 September that North Korea will release the South Korean fishing boat and its crew which the North captured last month for violating the exclusive economic zone. The announcement described the release as made "from the compatriotic and humanitarian points of view."

Comments from KGS NightWatch: Like the release of the US citizen to former President Carter, this is further confirmation that the North wants no grievances with neighbors and enemies to cast a shadow over the Party Conference - most likely this week - that might be exploited to disrupt it.

North Korea: Party Conference Update. The Party newspaper Rodong Sinmun reported on 6 September that delegates from the Workers' Party are arriving in Pyongyang for the 3rd Party Conference. The leadership has not announced the date the conference begins or how long it will last. Often for security purposes, the North withholds that information for significant internal events until after they have concluded their work.

Comments from KGS NightWatch: More than 1,300 delegates attended the 1966 conference. Accommodation is a significant burden, but delegates will have been arriving most likely for weeks before now. If the Conference has not already begun, it is likely to this week, based on today's announcement.


Kim Chong-il is not likely to designate in public his third son as his successor. Instead he is likely to appoint him to a post that will point to his succession. Kim's brother-in-law and the youth's uncle, Chang Song-taek, has been promoted to party and government positions that supposedly will enable him to act as regent and tutor for Kim Chong-eun, whom Japanese sources say is only 27.


The public appearance of the third son would be a sign that the speculation about his succession to leadership is accurate.

China and North Korea agrees to Open a New Container Shipping Route

* Article from Asahi Shimbun *

N. Korea, China eye shipping route
By Daisuke Nishimura
September 6, 2010 (Japan Standard Time)

China and North Korea have agreed to open a container shipping route from the North's Rason special economic zone, sources close to the Hunchun-based shipping company involved in the deal said. Hunchun is on China's border with Russia and North Korea.

The agreement was reached during the Northeast Asia Investment and Trade Expo, which runs until Monday in Changchun, China.

The new route, which starts at Rajin in North Korea, is expected to open by the end of December at the earliest, the sources said.

It is expected to handle about 300,000 tons of cargo annually, they said.

The envisioned route will link Rajin with foreign ports, such as Busan, but will be limited at its startup. It will begin shipping products into China from Europe and the United States via China's Qingdao.

Cooperation between China and North Korea has accelerated in the northeast amid heavy international sanctions levied against North Korea after the sinking of a South Korean warship in March.

In the Tumenjiang river area, other projects are also under way, including repairs to a cross-border bridge in Hunchun.

A private company based in Dalian, Liaoning province, is working to develop a pier at Rajin port. And sources said a company in Jilin province has acquired the right to use a pier at North Korea's Chongjin port, to the south of Rajin.

In a forum at the trade expo, North Korea's vice trade minister expressed hope that his country could make Rason into "a base for world-class processing trade and intermediate trade."

Meanwhile, China's inland Jilin province aims to secure sea routes to the Sea of Japan via North Korea's Rajin and Chongjin ports.

The Chinese government last year designated the Tumenjiang river area, which includes the Yanbian autonomous prefecture, Jilin and Changchun, as a pilot development zone.

Regional Update for September 3

South Korea-US: Update. US Forces Korea today confirmed that South Korea and the United States will hold anti-submarine warfare exercises from 5 to 9 September in the Yellow Sea. The statement said the exercises will send a message of deterrence to North Korea, while improving Allied anti-submarine warfare capabilities. Ten ships will participate including the two U.S. guided-missile destroyers, USS Curtis Wilbur and USS Fitzgerald, and a fast-attack U.S. submarine.


South Korea's Joint Staff announced the South will contribute four destroyers, a submarine, high-speed frigates and P-3C aircraft to practice techniques to cope with infiltration by enemy submarines.

Comment: As of 3 September, neither China nor North Korea has commented in response.

India- South Korea: In Seoul, today, Indian Defence Minister Antony and South Korean National Defense Minister Kim approved two memoranda of understanding that will strengthen force cooperation and defense industrial collaboration under the India-South Korea Defence Agreement.

The first memorandum of understanding (MoU) covers sharing of military expertise; exchanges of visits by military personnel and experts in defense services; education and training, and conduct of military exercises, as well as joint visits by ships and aircraft. It also includes cooperation in humanitarian assistance and international peacekeeping.

The second MoU is far reaching, aimed at identifying futuristic defense technology research and development for co-development and co-production of defense products.

Defence Minister Antony remarked that "We live in a troubled neighborhood. Some call it a fragile region. We have to maintain balance and restraint even in the face of grave challenges to our security."

Comment from KGS NightWatch: This was a high powered delegation that included senior officers from the armed services and from the defense research establishment. The Indians came to create an architecture for doing business and their timing could not have been better.


Serendipitously, the Indian delegation is in Seoul coincident with a powerful Chinese military region commander's visit to Pyongyang as a follow-up to Kim Jong-il's secretive China visit. The Indian visit also almost coincides with the start of the US-South Korean naval exercises in the Yellow Sea.

India-China: India conveyed its concerns to China on 3 September about an increase in the Chinese troop presence and activities in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Embassy officials said Indian Ambassador to China S. Jaishankar met China's Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Zhang Zhijun in Beijing to discuss India's concerns.

India news papers quoted government sources that 11,000 Chinese have been detected in the Pakistan-controlled section of western Kashmir

In response to the Indian demarche, the Chinese said the soldiers were assisting with flood relief without further explanation.

Comments from KGS NightWatch: The Indian press indicates China stonewalled India on this and several other issues, especially those related to Kashmir. While not confirmed, the size of the Chinese contingent equals that of an infantry division. The location could be east of Islamabad … if confirmed. Earlier press reports indicated the Chinese troops were providing security for railroad construction, but the Chinese did not confirm those reports.


China appears to be dropping the nuances in its policy actions of the past ten years as to disputed regions of Asia. In doing so, it is siding openly and unequivocally with longstanding allies. This explains China's open embrace of Kim Jong-il, which matches its equally open tilt to Pakistan on the issue of Kashmir.


China is asserting itself as the Asian hegemon from Northeast Asia, through Southeast Asia to Southwest Asia. This is a strategic challenge to the interests of the US, its allies and friends.

Pakistan: Pakistani Taliban again claimed responsibility for killing at least 43 people and injuring 78 others in a suicide blast at a Shiite procession in Quetta, Pakistan, according to police chief Ghulam Shabir Sheikh. The occasion of the march is al Quds Day, which is an annual protest in solidarity with the Palestinians and to condemn Israel. Al Quds is the Muslim name for the city Jerusalem.

Comments from KGS NightWatch: Pakistani Sunni terrorists evidently will not tolerate Pakistani Shiites protesting in support of Sunni causes, namely, the Palestinians. The plight of the Palestinians has no relevance to the goals of the Pakistani Taliban which include creation of a Pakistani Islamic emirate based in Islamabad.

Regional Update for September 1

Japan-China-North Korea: Update. Japan rejected North Korea's apparent interest in a quick resumption of six-party talks on Pyongyang's nuclear program, saying Tuesday that the time was not right for fresh discussions.

In a meeting Tuesday, 31 August, with China's nuclear envoy, Wu Dawei, Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada said conditions for talks were not right.

"As South Korea is dealing with the sinking of its warship, it is still too early to resume the six-party talks," Okada was quoted as telling Wu, according to a statement from the ministry.

Comments from KGS NightWatch: Japan's stand with South Korea to hold North Korea accountable for the sinking of the Cheonan contrasts sharply with the US and China movement to resume talks quickly, regardless of the North's act of war in sinking the patrol ship. Japan appears to be supporting South Korea whose leaders also think the time is not appropriate for nuclear talks.

Some Western commentators and officials have raised unrealistic expectations about the likelihood of nuclear talks. North Korea is preparing for the 3rd Party Conference, not talks. Kim's language about talks is not in the published remarks during his China visit.

The point is the North's pool of skilled managers is too small to manage simultaneously a Party Conference and nuclear talks probably through mid-September. The Party Conference is far more important to them than nuclear talks.

The Chinese appear to be the only source of the statements attributed to Kim that he wanted an early resumption of talks. They appear to have been crafted to placate the US while North Korea tends to succession business.

North Korea-China: Leaders from North Korea and China said the countries' military relations would be strengthened, Xinhua reported on 1 September. President of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly Kim Yong-nam met a delegation from the Shenyang Military Region in northeastern China at the Mansudae Assembly Hall to discuss military issues today.

Lieutenant General Zhang Youxia, head of the Chinese delegation and Commander of the Shenyang Military Region which abuts North Korea, said the China-North Korean relationship will be consolidated. He also said the Shenyang Military Region will make active efforts to further develop bilateral military exchanges and cooperation.

Comments from KGS NightWatch: The anomaly in the public announcement is that a Chinese military region commander was received by the official President of North Korea, not the Chief of the General Staff or any of the North Korean corps commanders opposite Shenyang Military Region.

General Zhang's visit is not likely a coincidence, occurring two days after Kim Chong-il visited General Zhang's military region. The visit looks like a follow-up to Kim's for the purpose of implementing agreements reached in China, such as coordination of military plans in the event of a crisis in Pyongyang. As a region commander, Zhang's involvement signifies operational and tactical details were discussed … details of execution rather than formulation of strategy.

China has a friendship treaty with North Korea which most old hands suspect includes a provision for Chinese forces to enter North Korea to preserve the communist regime during an emergency. Zhang's visit suggests he, as the responsible theater commander, is inspecting a likely future area of operations.
Introduction of Chinese forces for any purpose, even to save the Kim family regime, would require extensive operational and tactical coordination, establishment of deconfliction procedures and many other forms of cooperation with some of the most powerful North Korean army units, which guard the highway from China to Pyongyang.

China: The Chinese news agency reported China launched routine, annual naval training exercises in the Yellow Sea on 1 September. The Beihai fleet of the navy of the People's Liberation Army is to perform live ammunition firing training in waters off the east coast near Qingdao through the 4th.

Comments from KGS NightWatch: The Chinese live firing practice will not affect in any way the Allied anti-submarine exercises on the other side of the Yellow Sea near North Korea.

From Our Friends at KSG NightWatch: For the Night of 30 August

* Contents below are entirely from our friends at KGS NightWatch:

Comments from KGS NightWatch: On 30 August, Chinese and North Korean media confirmed Kim's visit to China and carried limited details about it. As is the custom, the communist media confirmed the visit only after Kim was back safely in Pyongyang.

In a dinner speech for Chinese President Hu, Kim described his visit in terms of a pilgrimage that his late father, President Forever Kim Il Sung, always intended to make but never did. Kim said, in part, "Permeated in Jilin and Heilongjiang Provinces (of China) are immortal footprints of the bloody anti-Japanese revolutionary struggle President Comrade Kim Il Sung waged with Chinese comrades from early on. As such, they are unforgettable lands of history which are cherished dearly in the hearts of our people; they are also witnesses of the North Korea-China friendship.

"When he was alive, President Comrade Kim Il Sung would never forget this eventful Northeastern region and, reminiscing on it, would say that he would be back here for sure. We have come today, embracing his wish.

The other distinctive feature of the North Korean media description of the visit is the use of communist cult language to explain every Chinese accomplishment. Everything Kim observed and all his interactions were described as the result of communist and socialist wisdom and planning. Kim repeatedly paid tribute to Chinese communism, as if to applaud the Chinese for swindling the successful modern systems in the world. He ignored that China began to progress by abandoning communist economics where it could and by copying capitalist , free market enterprise.

The international media described the visit as rich in policy implications, highlighting Kim's so-called desire for an early resumption of nuclear talks. Actually, Kim's public statements indicate he said there was no change in the North's desire for early nuclear talks. "No change" means the North continues to condition talks on acceptance of the North as a nuclear armed power.

As for other issues, the pervasive theme in the press statements is easing of tension. The North is not at all interested in talks soon. All in all, the visit looks like a Confucian farewell, performing last rites for unfinished family business. - KGS NightWatch

From Our Friends at KSG NightWatch: For the Night of 29 August

* Contents below are entirely from our friends at KSG NightWatch:

North Korea-China: North Korean Leader Kim Jong-il remained in northeast China on 29 August visiting the city of Harbin. Initial news reports asserted Kim's train was bound for Pyongyang. Instead, The train left Changchun, the capital of Jilin Province, which borders North Korea, the evening of the 28th and went south to Harbin to visit a plant.

The Japanese media reported hotel closures and tightened security at the Dandong border crossing site, the usual signs that North Korean leadership train's arrival is expected.

Comment: The proximity of this visit to the Party general meeting in early September is the basis for the inference that Kim's visit is related to the process of introducing his third son to the Chinese leadership and showing him around and off.

The visit appears too short to have moved other outstanding issues, including flood relief along the Yalu and the Six Party Talks. The brevity and location of the visit to Chinese areas near North Korea support those analyses that the visit also served the strategic goal of quieting the international environment before and during the Party plenum.

One commentary assessed that also was the primary aim in the North's handling in such low key fashion former President Carter's visit to obtain the release of the captive American. Aside from Six Party talks, there are now no potentially disruptive issues between the US and North Korea, such as an American in a North Korean jail.

The trip to China during the Carter visit also conveys a clear statement of North Korean foreign policy priorities. China is more important than the US.

These assessments imply that for the next two weeks, tension should ease and provocations are unlikely. However, the North may be expected to respond in prickly fashion to any actions by the US or South Korea that it perceives as a provocation, just to show that its inward focus does not signify weakness or inability to respond swiftly. China will be in overwatch position. The message from North Korea is, "leave us alone." - KGS NightWatch

Comment from the Author: Xinhua News Agency's English site posted a report on the Chinese president Hu Jintao's meeting with Kim Jong-il on Friday, 27 August, at 7:19 PM on 30 August, Beijing Time - which would make it 7:19AM on 30 August, Eastern Time.

China-Burma (Myanmar): Xinhua News Agency (the official news agency for the PRC) reported two Chinese navy ships from the 5th Escort Task Group, the Caohu and Guanhzhou, called at Myanmar's Thilawa Port on 29 August. The visit is to last five days to promote "good" relations.

Comment: This is the first time Chinese naval ships have called at a port in Burma. It also is a direct challenge to Indian naval dominance of the Indian Ocean region. - KGS NightWatch

Carter and Aijalon Gomes Arrive in Boston

By Hwang Doo-hyong of Yonhap News Agency from Washington, D.C.

Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter returned home Friday with an American held in North Korea for seven months for trespassing, reports said.

A private charter flight carrying Carter, Aijalon Gomes and their entourage arrived at Logan International Airport in Boston, the hometown of Gomes, who was sentenced in May to eight years in a labor and re-education camp and fined US$700,000 for illegal entry in January.

Carter flew into Pyongyang Wednesday [25 August] on a private mission to secure Gomes' release. His very presence in Pyongyang was seen as a thaw in U.S. relations with North Korea, which had been chilly since North Korea's torpedoeing of a South Korean warship in March.

However, the former U.S. president apparently did not meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. who abruptly left for China as Carter flew to Pyongyang.

From Our Friends at KGS NightWatch: For Night of 25 August 2010

*Contents below are entirely from our friends at KSG NightWatch:

South Korean National Defense Ministry sources divulged that the North Koreans have staged a buildup of military units near Pyongyang since mid-July. "Preparation for a massive national event is under way" in North Korea and the move presumably is related to the third ever Workers' Party plenum in September and the 65th anniversary of the party's founding on 10 October, according to a report submitted to a parliamentary committee today.

Comment: North Korean military choreographers routinely require 90 to 120 days to prepare for a major military demonstration. The mid-July start of preparations is consistent with past preparations for a large scale parade on 10 October. The anniversary of the founding of the Korean Workers' Party usually features a parade.

The Workers' Party plenary meeting in September will not be the occasion for a large parade because these meetings are infrequent and North Korean parades celebrate great events in the past. The South Korean reports suggest the October celebration will be unusually large, implying it might have some connection to a succession event decided at the September meeting. - KGS NightWatch

From Our Friends at KSG NightWatch

*Contents below are entirely from our friends at KSG NightWatch:

South Korea - North Korea: South Korean National Defense Minister Kim Tae Young said on 24 August that his troops are now allowed to respond immediately in the event North Korean shelling impacts on land south of the maritime border off the west coast.

South Korean troops previously were banned from firing back north of the Northern Limit Line if the North did not stop firing after warnings, even if shells landed on the South's side. Minister Kim said South Korea will give the North advance warning.

Comment : This represents an official authorization for more aggressive rules of engagement. The South has decided it will not be bullied by the North even if the new rules of engagement put other issues at risk, such as resumption of nuclear talks.

The historic record shows that the South's approach is much more likely to be productive than the alternative. North Koreans respect power, though they will test it to decide whether it is power or bluff. There will be artillery exchanges off the west coast this fall. - KSG NightWatch

North Korea-US: Former US President Carter will depart soon for North Korea on a private mission to free US citizen Aijalon Mahli Gomes who has been imprisoned after crossing illegally from China.

Comment: The North Koreans will welcome President Carter warmly because he is the only American President to have held discussions with the late President Kim Il-sung. Carter would not go were a warm welcome and high likelihood of success not in prospect.

The details of the North Korean welcome -- whether he meets Kim Chong-il and/or Chang Song-taek, for example - plus the success of his rescue mission will provide insights into the stability and confidence of the North Korean leadership and the prospects for Six Party talks. - KSG NightWatch

A Little Break

It has been over a month since I posted last. There have been some major personal events since my last posting - like moving the family across the Pacific Ocean.

The postings will begin again soon.

North Korean Media Characterization of the ROK-US Wartime OPCON Transfer Postponement

Background: In August 2006, the late South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun affirmed his strong position to pursue a policy toward regaining South Korea’s wartime operational control (OPCON), and in September 2006 South Korea and the US both agreed on the transfer of wartime OPCON during the South Korea-US Summit Meeting. Although the two sides initially agreed to expeditiously complete the transition of OPCON to South Korea after October 15, 2009, but not later than March 15, 2012, the agreed date was moved to April 17, 2012 after the South Korea-US Defense Ministerial Meeting held on February 27, 2007. Additionally, the two sides agreed to dissolve the ROK-US Combined Forces Command (CFC) by April 17, 2012, at the same meeting.

During a South Korea-US summit meeting held on June 26, 2010, however, the South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and the US President Barack Obama agreed to adjust the timeline for the handover of wartime OPCON from April 17, 2012 to December 1, 2015 given the increasingly uncertain and volatile security situation on the Korean Peninsula.

North Korean Reaction to the Delay of OPCON Transfer: On July 1, 2010, the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland (CPRF) spokesman issued a statement decrying the postponement of the OPCON transfer – which appears to be the first of the North Korean reaction to the announcement of the OPCON transfer postponement. As of the date of this posting, there have been seven other North Korean media reports criticizing the postponement since the CPRF statement.

The CPRF statement and the subsequent North Korean media reports uniformly condemned the South Korean President Lee Myung-bak for “begging” the US to postpone the transfer of wartime OPCON.

• “The traitor Lee Myung-bak, who went on a junket to Canada not long ago, met with Obama and played the game of begging and agreeing on the postponement of the wartime operational control [OPCON] transfer until 2015, while talking about the so-called changes in the security environment.” (The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland Statement, 01 July 2010)

• “The South Korean conservative group persistently begged for the extension of OPCON of their own accord and, accordingly, the U.S. has got justification to strengthen its policy for military occupation and colonial rule over South Korea. Needless to say, the U.S., which pretended to reluctantly accept such request, will demand the high price for it. This resulted in putting the people of South Korea under heavier yoke of domination and subjugation by the U.S.” (Rodong Sinmun, 07 July 2010)

• “Traitor Lee Myung-bak of South Korea recently begged its American master to postpone "the transfer of wartime operation control (OPCON)" till 2015. This is a sordid act of sycophancy and treachery which can be committed only by a poor pro-U.S. stooge who stakes his life on the U.S. and a revelation of an unpardonable traitorous scenario to ignite a war of aggression against the DPRK at any cost with the backing of outside forces.” (KCNA, 13 July 2010)

North Korean Media Characterization of OPCON Transfer Postponement consistent with past characterizations of OPCON Transfer: The North Korean media characterization of the OPCON transfer postponement is consistent with the past North Korean media portrayals of the pending ROK-US OPCON transfer. The North Korean media has in the past portrayed the OPCON transfer as a “smoke screen” for a future attack on North Korea, claiming that the US will use the ROK forces as a “shock brigade” to facilitate its strategy to build up forces and equipment on the Korean Peninsula in preparations for war. Consistent with the past portrayals, the North Korean media claims the postponement of the OPCON transfer will provide the US an opportunity to strengthen its military presence on the Korean Peninsula so that it may “unhesitatingly wage an all-out war” against North Korea.

• “The CPRF brands the game of postponing the wartime OPCON transfer, which has been realized as a result of the conspiracy and collusion between the United States and the puppet gang, as an extremely grave provocation to drive the currently very dangerous situation to more serious extremes and to unhesitatingly wage an all-out war against us, and sternly denounces and condemns it in the name of the entire nation.” (The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland Statement, 01 July 2010)

• “The U.S. extension of the OPCON under the pretext of the warship case made it possible for it to strengthen its military domination over South Korea and put its conservative ruling forces under a tighter control in a bid to effectively use them as a shock brigade for implementing its policy for invading the DPRK.” (Rodong Sinmun, 13 July 2010)

North Korean media’s Previous Portrayals of ROK-US OPCON transfer as a “smoke screen” for a future attack on North Korea:

• “The commander of the U.S. forces in south Korea made reckless remarks only to give the lie to the U.S. move for "transfer of the right to command wartime operations" to South Korea and disclose the sinister ambition for the aggression on the DPRK.” (KCNA, 09 February 2010)

• “It is the unchanging strategic design of the United States to cling more tightly to South Korea militarily, provoke another Korean war using it as a steppingstone, and going one step further, realize its wild ambition for achieving military domination over Asia.” (Roodong Sinmun, 09 February 2010)

• “In recent years alone, the US military forces have been turning the US imperialist forces of aggression forcibly occupying South Korea into the armed forces for mounting a preemptive attack centered on the navy and the air force equipped with far greater mobility and striking power, while blabbering about some kind of "strategic flexibility" and "return of wartime operational control," and they are cooking up new scenarios for a war of northward aggression reflecting a strategy for launching a preemptive nuclear attack and using this as a basis to more adventurously stage joint military exercises with the South Korean puppets.” (Rodong Sinmun, 07 March 2009)

• “The US imperialist warmongers currently regard the transfer of ‘wartime operational control’ to the puppet forces, which is to take place in 2012, as an occasion to perfect the operational system of preemptive attack, and attempt to reduce ground troops and equipment and shift the focus on the naval and forces, a system of preemptive attack.” (Rodong Sinmun, 27 November 2008)

• “The United States is attempting to pull the trigger of a new war on the Korean peninsula at any cost by turning the South Korean puppet forces into an autonomous force of war on the pretext of the ‘transfer of wartime operational control.’” (Rodong Sinmun, 16 September 2008)

North Korean Media’s Past Claims that the US will use the ROK as a ‘shock brigade’:

• “The U.S. seeks to turn its forces in South Korea into a task force capable of conducting military actions for aggression in vaster areas, not just the regional forces tasked with carrying out limited military duty in limited areas, and use the South Korean army as a shock brigade.” (KCNA, 09 February 2010)

• “The United States has been preparing US forces occupying South Korea as rapid mobile forces to make them carry out aggressive military actions in broader areas, not as a regional force that discharges its limited military duty in restricted areas, and use the South Korean forces as a shock brigade. The game of playing with the "transfer of wartime operational control" is a dangerous military move that seeks this very goal.” (Rodong Sinmun, 09 February 2010)

• “The US imperialists' maneuvers for pressing forward the "handover of wartime operational control" also serve the purpose of subordinating the puppet armed forces to the US imperialists more thoroughly and using them as a shock brigade in a war of northward aggression.” (Minju Joson, 24 June 2009)

• “If another Korean war breaks out, they will push forward the South Korean puppet forces as a shock brigade and [the US Forces] will use the method verified through Iraq and Afghanistan wars; [they] will attempt to easily achieve the purpose of northward aggression while reducing a force loss to the maximum by mobilizing the naval and air forces' state-of-the-art attack weapons.” (Rodong Sinmun, 27 November 2008)

• “The United States is attempting to pull the trigger of a new war on the Korean peninsula at any cost by turning the South Korean puppet forces into an autonomous force of war on the pretext of the ‘transfer of wartime operational control’ and by using them as a shock brigade, while enhancing the mobility and attack capability of the US imperialist forces of aggression occupying South Korea.” (Rodong Sinmun, 16 September 2008)

Overall Assessment of the North Korean Media on the Postponement of OPCON Transfer: Since the announcement of the postponement of the ROK-US OPCON transfer, the North Korean media has released eight reports condemning the postponement. All of the reports uniformly criticized the South Korean President Lee Myung-bak for “begging” the US to retain wartime OPCON and postpone the transfer. The reports also consistently claim the postponement of the OPCON transfer provides the US an opportunity to “strengthen its policy for military occupation and colonial rule over South Korea,” and thereby “escalating the tension on the Korean Peninsula” and “increasing the danger of war of aggression against North Korea.”

The North Korean media characterization of the OPCON transfer postponement is consistent with the past North Korean media portrayals of the pending ROK-US OPCON transfer. The North Korean media has in the past portrayed the OPCON transfer as a “smoke screen” for a future attack on North Korea, claiming that the US will use the ROK forces as a “shock brigade” to facilitate its strategy to build up forces and equipment on the Korean Peninsula in preparations for war. Consistent this logic, the North Korean media claims the postponement of the OPCON transfer will provide the US an opportunity to strengthen its military presence on the Korean Peninsula so that it may “unhesitatingly wage an all-out war” against North Korea.

KCNA: North Korean Permanent Representative to the UN Holds News Conference on Cheonan

Korean Central Broadcasting Station carried the following in Korean during its 11:00 PM KST newscast on July 10. Additionally, The Korean Central News Agency carried the following in English under the headline "Permanent Representative of DPRK at UN Holds Press Conference" on July 10.

==========

Sin Son Ho, permanent representative of the DPRK at the UN, held a press conference in New York on Friday as regards the issue of the presidential statement of the United Nations Security Council on the "Ch'o'nan" case.

The press conference was attended by correspondents of various countries at the UN.

Sin Son Ho said that the UNSC could not make any proper judgment or conclusion as it hastily tabled and handled the case before the truth of the case has been probed.

The "Ch'o'nan" case should have been settled between the North and the South without referring it to the UN, he said, adding: The DPRK will probe the truth behind the case to the last.

The recent development in which the situation on the Korean Peninsula reached a point of explosion in a moment due to a conspiratorial farce once again reminds us of the danger of the present cease-fire and the urgency to establish a peace-keeping regime.

The DPRK will make consistent efforts for the conclusion of a peace treaty and the denuclearization on the peninsula through the Six-Party Talks conducted on equal footing.

Answering the questions raised by reporters, Sin said that the presidential statement of the UNSC which said it took note of the DPRK's stand that it had nothing to do with the "Ch'o'nan" case meant a diplomatic victory of the DPRK.

South Korean Government Summons Russian Envoy to Protest Russia's Cheonan Findings

The Russian government apparently provided the findings of its investigation into the Cheonan incident to China and the US last week, leaving South Korea out of the loop. Understandably, the South Korean government summoned the Russian Ambassador to South Korea to lodge its objections on being left out of the loop on the matter.

The Russian investigation reportedly concluded that "it was unable to view the 'No. 1 torpedo' as being the cause of the sinking" of the ROKS Cheonan. Frankly, Russia's "findings" are not surprising given its past and present relations with North Korea as well as its interests in Northeast Asia - which do not necessarily coincide with the US or even China.

Below is a report from Hankyoreh by Lee Yeong-in that was filed on July 10 on this topic uner the headline, "Government Protests Russia's Conflicting Cheonan Findings":

==========

It came to light Friday that the South Korean government summoned the Russian Ambassador to South Korea and expressed strenuous objections over the Russian government’s failure to provide notification of the findings of its independent team that investigated the Cheonan sinking. The team was dispatched to South Korea around one month ago and concluded that it was unable to view the “No. 1 torpedo” as being the cause of the sinking.

According to military and foreign affairs supports connected to Russia, the Russian government provided notification of its independent investigation results only to the Chinese and U.S. governments last week, and South Korea only found out about the content indirectly through those two countries.

Following this, 1st Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Shin Kak-soo summoned Russian Ambassador to South Korea Konstantin Vnukov to the Foreign Ministry on July 4 to express “astonishment” at Russia’s investigation findings because the findings were a complete contradiction to the South Korean government’s announcement. They also expressed severe dismay about the fact that Russian notified only the U.S. and China about the findings, while leaving South Korea out of the communication loop.

Foreign affairs sources reported that Shin used forceful and diplomatically irregular language to denounce Russia’s behavior, calling it “unfriendly conduct that violates trust,” “bewildering,” and “disappointing.” It was also reported to Shin proposed additional discussions with Russia during the meeting, and that the South Korean government subsequently provided additional information to the Russian government.


“Was it not the South Korean government that provided assistance to the Russian investigation, saying that they would be objective?” asked a former senior official in foreign affairs and national security, adding that the Russian investigation results “raise fundamental doubts about the [South Korean] government’s announcement of its Cheonan investigation findings.”

It was reported that while the Russian investigation team did conclude that the Cheonan was not sunk by a North Korean bubble jet torpedo, it did not present any definitive conclusions about the direct cause, suggesting several possible scenarios such as a secondary mine explosion following a problem with the Cheonan during its maneuvers. Analysts are interpreting this as being due to the fact that the Russian team, made up of submersible and torpedo experts, focused its examination on the question of whether the sinking resulted from a strike by the “No. 1 torpedo.”

“The Russian investigation team’s primary interest was in whether North Korea, which had been unable to produce its own torpedoes until 1995, suddenly was able to attack the Cheonan with a state-of-the-art bubble jet torpedo,” said a South Korean diplomatic source.

Indeed, the technology for bubble jet torpedoes, which are capable of splitting a vessel in two through the expansion and contraction of a bubble resulting from a powerful explosion, is possessed only by the U.S. and a small number of other countries, and has only been successful to date in experiments on stationary ships rather than actual fighting. The joint civilian-military investigation team also acknowledged in its June 29 briefing to media groups that North Korea was the first to have succeeded in using a bubble jet torpedo in the field.

North Korea shifts to peace offensive

Analysts seem to think North Korea is shifting to 'Peace Offensive' after sinking the ROKS Cheonan.

Here's an Agence France-Presse (AFP) report By Park Chan-Kyong from AFP-Hong Kong:

After months of tensions, North Korea is now looking for a way out of the confrontation sparked by the sinking of a South Korean warship, analysts said Saturday.

After securing what its U.N. envoy termed “a great diplomatic victory” when the U.N. condemned the sinking without identifying the culprit, the North expressed willingness in principle to return to nuclear disarmament talks.

“The DPRK (North Korea) will make consistent efforts for the conclusion of a peace treaty and the denuclearization through the six-party talks conducted on equal footing,” its foreign ministry said in a statement.

The North noted the U.N. Security Council's statement encouraged the settlement of outstanding issues on the Korean peninsula through peaceful dialogue.

South Korea, the United States and other countries have accused the North of torpedoing the warship with the loss of 46 lives, a charge it vehemently denies.

“Pyongyang believes it put up a good defense at the United Nations as the statement stopped short of blaming the sinking on the North,” Professor Kim Yong-Hyun of Seoul's Dongguk University told AFP.

“North Korea is now taking a peace offensive, calling for dialogue.”

The North's statement also aims to “take the steam” out of an upcoming U.S.-South Korea joint naval exercise and the South's own reprisals including a planned resumption of psychological warfare against the North, he said.

The North warned “hostile forces” against carrying out “such provocations as demonstration of forces and sanctions” in contravention of the U.N. statement.

“They will neither be able to escape the DPRK's strong physical retaliation nor will be able to evade the responsibility for the resultant escalation of the conflict,” it said.

But a defense ministry spokesman said Saturday that South Korea would go ahead with the naval exercise with the United States in the Yellow Sea, which has also sparked protests from China.

The South in May announced its own non-military reprisals against the North, including a partial trade ban and the possible resumption of propaganda broadcasts through loudspeakers along the border.

Professor Yang Moo-Jin of Seoul's University of North Korean Studies said that despite the rhetoric, the North's statement is laying emphasis on dialogue.

“Pyongyang is now taking an exit strategy to extricate itself from the row over the sinking,” Yang said.

“The North is struggling to send a message that it is in favor of dialogue. This move is aimed at making the planned U.S.-South Korea joint naval exercise and the South's resumption of psychological warfare appear unwarranted.”

In an apparent policy shift, the North on Friday offered to hold military generals' talks with the United States to discuss the Cheonan sinking.

It announced on the same day that a U.S. citizen serving a prison term in the North for illegal entry had attempted suicide, driven by “despair at the U.S. government that has not taken any measure for his freedom.”

“This is all part of the North's efforts to attract Washington to dialogue,” Yang said.

Professor Jang Yong-Suk of Sung Kong Hoe University told Yonhap news agency that China might have urged the North to come back to dialogue in return for its support at the U.N. Security Council.

The six-party talks — which involve China, the two Koreas, the United States, Russia and Japan — have been stalled since North Korea quit them last year in protest over U.N. censure of its missile test.

The North has previously expressed willingness in principle to return. But first it wants the U.S. to agree to hold talks on a formal peace treaty and an end to sanctions.

The Greater Tumen Area Economic Project on the Move

It seems China and North Korea has moved forward on one of their economic venture. Japan's Kyodo World Service reported today China has completed the repair of the bridge in Hunchun at the Sino-North Korean border over the Tuman River, giving China a safer access to North Korea to reach Rajin Port. The report also says the Chinese government has approved a plan to transport coal and other items produced in Jilin, China, to Shanghai via Rajin, North Korea, in April this year.

Despite the Cheonan incident and continued North Korean temper tantrums, it appears the Sino-North Korean Tumen area project continues to roll.

Here's the entire Kyodo World Service report:

Yanji, China - China has repaired a bridge in Hunchun at the Chinese and North Korean border, giving it a safer access to North Korea for use of Rajin port to ship coal to Shanghai, according to Jilin Province officials.

China paid 3.6 million yuan ($528,526) to repair the bridge over the TUmen River, a project jointly pursued with North Korea, the officials said Tuesday.

Work was completed June 14.

The bridge serves as a gateway to Pier No. 1 at Rajin port, which a Chinese company has obtained the right to use for 10 years.

In April, the Chinese government approved a plan to transport coal and other items produced in Jilin to Shanghai via Rajin in northeastern North Korea.

China and North Korea have been in talks about financing of a plan to build a 50-kilometer road leading to the port, the officials said.

Rodong Sinmun's Comments about Secretary Hillary Clinton

Rodong Sinmun, in a signed commentary published on 22 June, said, “Not many words worth paying attention to come out of the mouths of meddlesome and garrulous women. Women of this type often insist that black is white. US Secretary of State Hillary [Clinton] can be said to be precisely this type of woman.” It also said Secretary Clinton’s remarks made during her recent junket through the Central and South American countries, where she stated North Korea is a threat to global peace, are “brigandish sophism” reminiscent of a thief crying “Stop the thief!”

While it is common practice for the Rodong Sinmun to mention foreign leaders and their administrations by name and criticize them for their policy practices or positions, it is uncommon for it to directly insult a foreign/international official.

Following are examples of common Rodong Sinmun criticisms:

• On 02 June 2009, Rodong Sinmun criticized the US President Obama for practicing “double standard” in his nuclear policy. In its criticism, Rodong Sinmun cited an article entitled “Speaking of the Matter of Israel’s Nuclear Weapons” to reinforce its position that President Obama and the US government practices “double standard” when it comes to global nuclear weapons reduction.

• On 28 July 2006, Rodong Sinmun charged that the US President George W. Bush and his administration is the true “culprits” responsible for bringing about the “danger of nuclear war” and heightened tension on the Korean Peninsula.

Personal insults on foreign/international officials, while more uncommon, is not unprecedented:

• On 14 June 2010, Rodong Sinmun denounced IAEA Director General Amano Yukiya for his remarks at the meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors held on 07 June where he stressed North Korea should fulfill all of its obligations related to the nuclear non-proliferation and comply with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Rodong Sinmun remarked Amano Yukiya is an ignorant man who is a Japanese with strong pro-US tendency who initially failed to be elected as the director general of the agency due to the opposition of the developing countries, but later barely managed to have himself elected through money diplomacy.

• On 19 June 2009, Rodong Sinmun decried the South Korean President Lee Myung-bak is “a wicked sycophant and traitor and confrontation-minded maniac, to realize his ambition to invade the north in league with foreign forces” in response to President Lee’s statement made during his visit to a South Korean Air Force base where he said “cooperation” with the United States would help “deter” a war.

• On 13 May 2009, Rodong Sinmun remarked the South Korean Foreign Minister Ryu Myong Hwan is a “a sycophant and traitor bereft of even an iota of the consciousness of being a member of the Korean nation and its soul” in response to Foreign Minister Ryu’s support for the UNSC’s decision to tighten sanctions on North Korea.

While the 22 June commentary was the first Rodong Sinmun’s personal insult on Secretary Clinton, this was not the first time North Korea has mocked her.

• On 23 July 2009, the spokesman for the North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs blasted the “anti-North Korean vituperation” made by the US Secretary Clinton and said that Secretary Clinton has made a spate of “vulgar” remarks unbecoming of her position everywhere she went since she was sworn in.

• In the same statement, the spokesman also stated, “We cannot but regard Mrs. Clinton as a funny lady as she likes to utter such rhetoric, unaware of the elementary etiquette in the international community. Sometimes she looks like a primary schoolgirl and sometimes a pensioner going shopping. Anyone making misstatements has to pay for them. It is our view that she can make even a little contribution to the implementation of the U.S. administration's foreign policy as secretary of State only when she has understanding of the world, to begin with.”