North Korean nuclear game....

Here is a piece from Council on Foreign Relations newsletter published on September 24 that I thought everyone may be interested in. I especially liked the interactive CFR.org Crisis Guide on the history of conflict on the Korean peninsula.

North Korea expelled international inspectors (Telegraph) from its main nuclear facility and stripped the facility of the seals and security cameras that prevented Pyongyang from reactivating the plant. The Yongbyon site was shut down in February 2007 as Pyongyang agreed to cease its nuclear activity in exchange for foreign aid and diplomatic incentives. Now the regime says it will move ahead with plans to activate the facility (BBC), and will return nuclear materials to the site next week.The setback on denuclearization comes amid continued speculation over the health of North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-Il, who was reported to have had a stroke by South Korean and U.S. intelligence officials. More recent intelligence reports from Seoul have indicated slight improvements (Canadian Press) in Kim's health following surgery, but analysis of what might happen in a post-Kim North Korea has only intensified. NPR writes that no firm succession plan appears to be in place, and that there is no evidence that one of Kim's three sons, or a different official, is being groomed for the post. The Atlantic says any of Kim's possible successors will likely share much of the leader's reclusive world-view, so talks of regime change are highly premature.This CFR.org Crisis Guide looks at the history of conflict on the Korean peninsula.

A CFR.org Crisis Guide looks at the history of conflict on the Korean peninsula.

North Korea up to its old bag of tricks...milking that nuclear cash cow

Here we go again.....the latest from North Korea is that it has booted out all the IAEA monitors from its Yongbyon nuclear facility....hey, didn't they do this before? All of this shouldn't really come as a surprise to the North Korea watchers. After all, did we really think that North Korea was just going to give up its nuclear ambitions that easily? The nuke is the only real bargaining chips North Korea has against the international community, not to mention that it is an invaluable propaganda tool for its own domestic consumption. So, it is really unlikely that it is going to just give it all up for the sake of regional security and world peace.

Would this have still happened if the US delisted North Korea from the terrorism list? I don't know, but I have a feeling North Korea would have thought of something to keep the facility going, or at least delay the process as long as possible even with the delisting.

A few things are clear - it would have taken years just to sort out and resolve the issues that have been brought forth through the Six-Party process so far, but now it is going to take much longer and will take some very hard work to get the process going again.

If nothing else, I have to hand it to North Korea for keeping things interesting.

Groupthink

As I watched the development surrounding the US beef for the past two months, I have come to realize once again the dangers of groupthink and how easy it is for people to get caught up in the mob mentality. As the discord over the US beef issue grew, it became very clear very quickly to me that these protets would get out of hand and it was matter of when and not if. As the groupthink mentality started to take over, it very quickly became an us vs. them propsition. So, anyone who, in the eyes of the protesters, did not support the cause instantly became public enemy number one. Recently, this groupthink mentality has gotten to the point of criminal. The highlight is the recent netizens' movement to boycott companies who advertise in the three main South Korean newspapers, the Chosun, Dong-A and JoongAng dailies. This movement, however, has degenerated from a consumer movement to criminal cyber and telephone terrorism.

I came across an op-ed piece written by the former President Kim Dae-Joong today titled A Lone Protest Against the Protests and I could not agree with him more. You must understand...this is by no means a normal thing for me...to agree with the former president, but on this one, I fully agree with him.

It's NOT About the Beef....

Ever since South Korea agreed to resume its import of the US beef, there has been mounting voices against the resumption...these voices were there before, but they got louder and louder as the time went on (probably because they know they can't stop the flow of beef, and the time for the US beef to hit the South Korean market is getting closer by the second)... over the long weekend and going into this week, the voices against US beef is reaching their climax...I think. It's gotten to the point where anti-US beef organizations in South Korea are sending messages to public school teachers urging them to teach students about why US beef is not safe for human consumption. The political parties are coming up with ways to undo the trade agreements as well as plans to persuade the citizens to calm down. Some South Korean political parties are clamoring for a re-negotiation with the US. US response to all of this is one of calm assurance...of course, what else could the US do? And even if it could, why would it? Anyway, as someone who eats American beef nearly everyday (despite the claimed dangers of mad cow disease), I would just like to point out something to everyone who is so worried about the US beef entering the Korean market... hate to say it, but this Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) is not about the beef. Beef, in fact, is only serving as a diversion from those issues that may be more controversial in each of the countries. So, what are some of the issues that beef is serving as the smoke screen for? Well, they are pharmaceuticals, automobile, service (financial, insurance, medical, etc), steel and electronics industries. So, without going into elaborate details on how these industries could affect the Korean and US economies when the FTA goes into effect, one can already guess that what's really important here is that...It's not about the beef. So, for those of you who were out protesting on the Seoul streets...and for those of you who got on Korean TV talking about the dangers of the US beef...I fully understand your concerns (whether that be health or financial), but you really missed the point.