In and Aroun North Korea: 14 - 20 February 2009

• North Korea will not likely use its nuclear weapons unless it feels its security is at risk, the chief US intelligence official said on 12 Feb. "Pyongyang probably views its nuclear weapons as being more for deterrence, international prestige, and coercive diplomacy than for war fighting and would consider using nuclear weapons only under certain narrow circumstances," the director of national intelligence, Dennis Blair, said in a report presented at a Senate Select Committee on Intelligence hearing. "We also assess Pyongyang probably would not attempt to use nuclear weapons against US forces or territory unless it perceived the regime to be on the verge of military defeat and risked an irretrievable loss of control," Blair said in the report, titled "Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community."

• The outgoing top US nuclear envoy stressed on 15 Feb that the US does not regard North Korea as a nuclear power, countering growing speculation that Washington might have lowered the bar in dealing with the communist state's nuclear ambitions. "We do not and have never accepted North Korea as a nuclear weapon state I want to make that very clear," Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill told reporters after meeting with Seoul's top nuclear negotiator Kim Suk in Seoul.

• The chief Japanese and US nuclear negotiators agreed on 16 Feb to continue pressing for North Korea's denuclearization through the six-party talks under President Barack Obama's administration, Japanese Foreign Ministry officials said. Akitaka Saiki, director general of the Japanese Foreign Ministry's Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau, and Christopher Hill, US assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, reaffirmed the countries' joint position of not compromising easily in negotiations with North Korea on how to verify its nuclear programs. They are also believed to have agreed that given Pyongyang's recent provocative actions, it would be difficult for much progress to be made on US-North Korea relations at the moment.

• South Korean Prime Minister Han Seung-soo said on 16 Feb that Seoul wants a complete denuclearization of North Korea, and that the nations involved in the process do not approve of the country's possession of nuclear power. "Complete abandonment," Han said during an interpellation session in parliament when asked by lawmakers what Seoul's ultimate goal is in the six-party framework on North Korea's nuclear program.

• The US Secretary of State Clinton warned North Korea on 17 Feb that it stood to lose vital economic aid unless it took immediate steps to abandon its nuclear weapons program. In a move that could heighten tensions between the two countries, Pyongyang is reportedly preparing to test a Taepodong-2 ballistic missile believed to have sufficient range to reach US territory. Speaking in Tokyo on her first overseas trip as secretary of state, Clinton warned the Pyongyang regime against going ahead with the threatened launch, saying it would damage its prospects for improved relations with the US and the world.

• Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso will meet US President Barack Obama in Washington 24 Feb for Obama's first talks with a foreign leader at the White House since taking office, Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said after meeting in Tokyo on Tuesday (17 Feb). Clinton and Nakasone said in a joint news conference they agreed to reinforce the Japan-US alliance to tackle various global issues, including the financial crisis and terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as North Korea's denuclearization and past abductions of Japanese citizens. The two ministers also shared expectations for China to play a "constructive" role in the international arena, while Clinton warned North Korea that a possible missile launch that Pyongyang has been hinting at would be "very unhelpful" to efforts to move the denuclearization process forward.

• North Korea is operating a secret underground plant to make nuclear bombs from highly enriched uranium (HEU) despite denying that such a program exists, a South Korean newspaper said on 18 Feb. Dong-A Ilbo, quoting an unnamed senior government source, said South Korea and the United States have shared intelligence on the plant in Yongbyon district.

• South Korean intelligence efforts in the north appear to have uncovered information about a secret North Korean underground factory that is producing nuclear weapons using enriched Uranium. North Korea has long been installing military installations in large underground bunkers, often dug into the sides of mountains. North Korea has lots of mountains for this. If North Korea decides to test a uranium based bomb, it would probably be an underground test, like the 2006 plutonium bomb. But there is no way to prevent some radioactive gases from such a test from escaping into the atmosphere.

• A working group for security mechanisms in North-East Asia met at the Russian Foreign Ministry on 19 Feb to discuss a draft of the Guiding Principles of Peace. The meeting was held under Russia's chairmanship with participation of all the six countries that take part in the six-way talks on denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. The Russian diplomat said the working group is likely to approve a new schedule of meetings that would certainly be linked with the general course of the six-way talks.

• US Secretary of State Clinton said on 19 Feb that North Korea's leadership situation is uncertain and the United States is worried the Stalinist country may soon face a succession crisis to replace dictator Kim Jong-il. Clinton said the Obama administration is deeply concerned that a potential change in Pyongyang's ruling structure could raise already heightened tensions between North Korea and its neighbors as potential successors to Kim jockey for position and power.

• On 20 Feb, US Secretary of State Clinton stressed that North Korea's missile threats would harm the six-way disarmament talks and urged the communist nation to return to the bargaining table. "We are calling on the government of North Korea to refrain from being provocative and unhelpful in a war of words they engaged in because it is not fruitful," Clinton said in a press conference in Seoul after talks with her South Korean counterpart, Yu Myung-hwan. She also announced President Barack Obama's appointment of Stephen Bosworth, a former U.S. ambassador to Seoul, as the top U.S. official handling the North Korean issue. "We need a capable and experienced diplomat to stem our risks from North Korea's nuclear ambitions," she said, adding Bosworth will serve as senior emissary in dealing with North Korea and directly report to her and Obama. The secretary said that North Korea is "not going to get a different relationship with U.S." if it shuns dialogue with S. Korea.

• North Korea warned on 19 Feb that South Korea and the United States will pay a "high price" if they go ahead with their planned joint war drills, saying it is ready for an all-out war. A day earlier, the two allies said they will hold their annual military exercise from March 9-20 across South Korea. Pyongyang has denounced such drills as preparations for preemptive strikes, while the allies say they are purely defensive. “Inter-Korean relations are at their worst crisis," Radio Pyongyang said. "A dangerous situation is arising in the western sea and the regions where the two sides are in standoff ... one does not know when military clashes will occur." Following are excerpts of KCNA reports about the ROK-US combined exercise:

“The U.S. imperialists and warmongers of the South Korean puppet army are getting more frantic in their arms build-up and exercises for a war of aggression against the DPRK these days, according to a military source. On 19 Feb warmongers of the U.S. imperialist aggressor forces deployed at least 20 overseas-based F/A-18s, HC-130 and KC-135 in their air force bases in South Korea. 16 F/A-18s and E-3 were also deployed there on 13 Feb. The north-south relations have reached such a pass due to the puppet army warmongers' moves to escalate the confrontation with the DPRK that there is no way to improve them or
put them under control.”

“The bellicose conservative hard-liners of the US and the Lee Myung-bak group have buckled down to working out a new operational plan, a joint product of the theory of a war against the DPRK, in a bid to finally examine the feasibility of the DPRK-targeted war strategy that has already gone through several phases. All their war scenarios such as ‘OPLAN 5026’ called "precision strike plan", ‘OPLAN 5027’ called ‘an operational plan for coping with an all-out war’, ‘OPLAN 5028’ which took the provocation of a war and its escalation into consideration, ‘OPLAN 5029’ simulating ‘destabilization in the north’ and ‘OPLAN 5030’ aimed to weaken as much as possible the strength and capability of the DPRK assume without exception the nature of preemptive strikes.”

“According to South Korea's Yonhap News, US imperialists and the Lee
Myung-bak puppet warlike forces are going to perpetrate the Key Resolve and Foal Eagle joint military exercises, which are exercises for a war of northward aggression, in all of South Korea from 3-20 March. The South Korea-US Combined Forces Command [CFC] announced this on 18 February. The warmongers are going to mobilize massive aggression forces for the war exercises, including some 12,000 troops of the US imperialist aggression forces occupying South Korea, some 14,000 troops of overseas-based US forces, and corps-level, fleet command-level, and wing-level units of the puppet forces. A nuclear-powered aircraft carrier of the US forces is reportedly stepping up preparations to move to the East Sea [Sea of Japan] of Korea to participate in the war exercises. In the meantime, the First Corps of the puppet army openly declared that it will carry out field tactical training in the areas of Koyang and P'aju, Kyo'nggi Province, from the 20th [of February] by mobilizing various kinds of war equipment and massive forces. Currently, the 30th Division of the puppet army is bustling about for field mobile training in these areas.”

• Unlike its usual focus on leader Kim Jong-il, this year's ruling party editorial honoring his birthday repeatedly emphasized the "inheritance of bloodline," Seoul officials said on 17 Feb amid growing speculation of succession. "In the midst of glorious inheritance of bloodline of Mount Paektu is the bright future of the Juche (self-reliance) revolution," Rodong Sinmun, the mouthpeice of the ruling Workers' Party, said in its editorial on 16 Feb.

• A source close to the North Korean government has told Mainichi Shimbun that an internal memo circulating in the North Korean military headquarters has named Kim Jong-il's third son, 26-year-old Kim Jong Un, as his successor. However, Kim's second son, Kim Jong Chol, 28, is complicating the transfer of power as he is also apparently vying for the position following his appointment to a top post in the Workers' Party of Korea. According to the source, the memo is believed to be used for military ideological training and says that Kim Jong Un has been named as his father's successor. Kim Jong Un was reportedly studying at the Kim Il Sung Military University until 2007 before joining the army.

• North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s alleged decision to name his third son as his successor has been made at the recommendation of his brother-in-law, who is known to have overseen state affairs while Kim fell ill, sources said on 15 Feb. Jang Song-thaek, husband of Kim's younger sister and believed to be second in power, recommended Kim's youngest, [Kim] Jong-un, take over as the North's new leader, considering the incumbent leader's special affection for the 25-year-old son, multiple sources said on condition of anonymity.

• The youngest son of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is running in parliamentary elections seen by some analysts as laying the groundwork for a power transition, a report said Thursday (19Feb). The leader's third son, 25-year-old Jong Un, has registered as a candidate for the elections on March 8, South Korea's Yonhap News Agency said. The registration means North Korea has started the process of designating the leader's successor, Yonhap said, citing sources in Beijing. "Kim Jung Un will be formally nominated as successor after the elections. He is expected to take on key party and military posts in April," one source told Yonhap.

• North Korea's food supply will fall 1.17 million tons short of demand this year, while Pyongyang is tightening control of the market and economic activities, Seoul's Unification Ministry said on 19 Feb. North Korea produced 4.31 million tons of grain last year, up 7 percent from the previous year thanks to improved weather conditions. But the country likely needs 5.48 million tons to feed its 2.3 million people, the ministry said in a report submitted to the National Assembly's foreign affairs, trade and unification committee.

• Two members of the British House of Lords returned from a five-day visit to North Korea last weekend and called on the new Obama administration to bring about a formal cessation of hostilities and normalisation of relations with North Korea. Lord David Alton and Baroness Caroline Cox expressed deep concerns over human rights, humanitarian and security issues during high-level meetings with DPRK government ministers and officials.

• North Korea signaled on 16 Feb that it is preparing to launch a satellite, sharpening its combative diplomacy on leader Kim Jong-il's birthday amid rising tension with South Korea and stalled nuclear negotiations with the United States. Pyongyang made clear it will go ahead with what it called its "space development" program, a possible message to Washington ahead of US Secretary of State Clinton's visit to Seoul this week. "One will come to know later what will be launched in the DPRK," the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said.

• When the US delegation led by former US ambassador to South Korea Stephen Bosworth visited North Korea and asked a high-ranking official of North Korea's Foreign Ministry about [the country's] preparation of the launch of a long-range ballistic missile, the official said: "We are still under a threat (of the United States). Under such circumstance, we will reinforce our deterrence." Korean Central News Agency on 16 Feby claimed that the object, which North Korea is preparing to launch, is not a missile and hinted at the possibility of launching a "satellite," asserting that "space development is the independent right of North Korea." It is viewed as North Korea's explanation to avoid criticism from the international community when it launches a missile. It contradicts the comment by the high-ranking official, who talked about "[reinforcing] deterrence."

• North Korea could complete preparations to fire a missile within the next two weeks at the earliest, Seoul's defense chief reportedly said on 18 Feb, as South Korea and the US warned Pyongyang of sanctions and other consequences. Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee made the prediction during a closed-door report to ruling Grand National Party leaders, Yonhap News Agency said, citing unnamed participants.

• South Korea's top diplomat emphasized on 18 Feb that North Korea's missile program poses a serious threat to international security due to its ability to launch a nuclear bomb. Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan also said that Pyongyang would still face stern punitive measures from the United Nations even if it launches a satellite, and not a missile as feared. North Korea's missile is not a mere conventional weapon," Yu said at a meeting with foreign envoys here. "The combination of its long-range missile and nuclear capability will have a very serious impact to the world's peace and security."

• The issue of whether South Korea should participate in the Missile Defense efforts led by the United States has resurfaced amid intelligence reports that North Korea is preparing to launch a long-range ballistic missile. The US-led Missile Defense system is being developed as a deterrent against air attacks from potential enemies such as North Korea and Iran. It will include a combination of mid-course intercepting SM-3 missiles based on US and Japanese Aegis-equipped ships and terminal-phase PAC-3 missile batteries. Japan, one of Washington's closest allies, is a partner in the program.

• Japanese companies played a key role in supplying equipment used for Pakistan's nuclear development, investigations by Kyodo News in Islamabad and Tokyo have revealed in recent days. Comments by Pakistan's disgraced nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan and former employees of the companies reveal in detail for the first time how leading Japanese manufacturers knowingly and unknowingly helped Pakistan acquire nuclear capability and were incorporated into its supply framework.

• An US scholar on 18 Feb urged the Barack Obama administration to resume negotiations on removal of North Korea's long-range missiles, talks that were suspended a decade ago under the Clinton administration. The Obama administration should "declare that the US is willing to resume negotiations to eliminate North Korea's missile threats to its neighbors," Bruce Klingner, senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, said in a policy report posted on the foundation's Website. Klingner, however, added that such negotiations "must comprehensively constrain missile development, deployment, and proliferation rather than simply seeking a quid pro quo agreement – cash payments in exchange for not exporting missile technology."

• North Korea said on 19 Feb its missile and nuclear programs pose no threat, ahead of a visit by US Secretary of State Clinton to South Korea for talks expected to focus on North Korea. North Korea's military accused South Korea of misusing what it called "nonexistent nuclear and missile threats" as a pretext to invade, and renewed a warning that its troops are in an "all-out confrontational posture" against Seoul.

• North Korea's titular head of state Kim Yong-nam Sunday (15 Feb) warned Pyongyang will take "decisive actions" against Seoul if the South continues to challenge the communist nation, becoming the highest North Korean official yet to directly make such a threat since inter-Korean relations turned sour early last year. The fresh threat comes after the North's Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea said late last month that the North will no longer honor any agreement reached between the divided Koreas in the past, also pledging to take all means necessary redraw a maritime border in the western sea to the south of the existing border, Northern Limit Line.

• South Korea is on high alert as the North Korean military has exposed part of its combat capability such as rocket and coastal artillery at its bases near the Military Demarcation Line and the maritime borderline in the Yellow Sea. Military sources in Seoul said on 13 Feb that intelligence spotted a raft of 240mm rocket artillery at the North's frontline tunnel bases. The North Korean military has positioned a slew of 170mm self-propelled and 240mm rocket artillery with a range of 50 to 65 kilometers at mountainous areas near the border with South Korea. Of them, 350 pieces can strike Seoul.

• Unification Minister Hyun In-taek yesterday downplayed the June 15 and Oct. 4 inter-Korean declarations as "political statements," a remark that could further deteriorate ties with North Korea. "The accords are political declarations entailing basic directions of the inter-Korean relations. They are not documents that have received parliamentary ratification," Hyun said. He made the remark in response to a question about the accords by Rep. Choi Young-hee of the main opposition Democratic Party during the National Assembly's interpellation to the government.

• On 16 Feb, conservative lawmakers urged the government to shift its position on North Korea's nuclear programs to better cope with what they called the de facto nuclear state. Hardliners have gained the upper hand in the legislature since North Korea announced that it will scrap all inter-Korean agreements and appeared to be preparing to test-fire a long-range missile. Rep. Yoon Sang-hyun of the governing Grand National Party (GNP) proposed the creation of a presidential body to manage the situation in case a North Korea-led nuclear crisis takes place on the peninsula.

• The government has been reviewing legal action against civic group members who, despite repeated warnings, flew balloons filled with anti-North Korea leaflets and North Korean banknotes across the border on 16 Feb, the Ministry of Unification said. On 18 Feb, the unification minister asked the prosecutors office to investigate activists who sent North Korean currency over the border as part of an anti-Pyongyang campaign, in an alleged violation of South Korean law.

• Recently, South Korea's Ministry of Unification totally blocked the exchange of news items with us proposed by the Press Headquarters of the South Side's Committee for Implementing the 15 June Joint Declaration, babbling about a security guarantee and whatnot.

• A ranking North Korean official has admitted "there may be problems" in implementing the two inter-Korean summit accords but accused South Korea of completely opposing them, a British lawmaker said in a report on his recent Pyongyang visit. If confirmed, the alleged remark by Ri Jong-hyok, vice chairman of the Asia-Pacific Peace Committee, Pyongyang's arm on inter-Korean affairs, could be a sign that North Korea also believes part of the extensive economic and political agreements forged in 2000 and 2007 should be revised in terms of their technical implementation.

• “Trains wish to run (to North Korea).” This is what a signboard read to mark the end of an inter-Korean railway at Shintan-ri Rail Station in Yeoncheon County, Gyeonggi Province. While inter-Korean tension has heightened in recent weeks, construction work continues around the station to reconnect Gyeongwon Railway, which symbolizes the dream of a reunified Korea. Workers were busy at work to lay the railway bed to increase the level of land 10 meters above normal, with a sign warning of landmines. In a tunnel, the centerpiece of the project for reconnecting the inter-Korean railway, heavy duty equipment broke off layers of rock amid a roaring sound with its two arms stretched out.

• President Lee Myung-bak assembled the largest annual national security meeting on 17 Feb amid heightening fears of a North Korean provocation, the defense ministry said. The meeting, which drew roughly 200 top military, intelligence, law enforcement and local government officials, marked the first time that a South Korean leader has presided over it in five years. Begun in 1964 to coordinate security measures against North Korean spies, the meeting came amid worries the communist neighbor may test-fire a ballistic missile or trigger an armed clash along the western sea border.

• South Korea will define North Korea as an "immediate and grave threat" to its national security in its forthcoming defense white paper, a spokesman said on 17 Feb, amid mounting tension along their heavily armed border. South Korea previously called North Korea an "immediate" or "grave" security threat in defense reports published in 2004 and 2006, but has never used the two terms simultaneously in a single white paper. "This year we have decided to term it a threat both grave and immediate," said Lee Bung-woo, a spokesman at the Ministry of National Defense.

• North Korea may try to jolt its enemies with unexpected provocations along its heavily armed border with South Korea, the South's chairman of general staff said on 19 Feb. North Korea recently stepped up its bitter rhetoric against South Korea and warned of an armed clash near the U.N.-drawn Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the Yellow Sea -- the site of bloody naval clashes in 1999 and 2002. "We expect various scenarios of North Korean provocation, including at the NLL," Kim Tae-young, chairman of the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at a parliamentary hearing, citing a Chinese strategy that calls for attack after distracting enemy attention.

• Dozens of women clad casually in sweatsuits chat cheerfully in their classroom during a recess period. It could be any classroom except for the tight security outside and the subject of the lectures – how to adapt to life in a new world. The South Korean government's Hanawon resettlement centre, ringed with fences and tightly guarded by police, is the first stop for North Koreans who have fled their impoverished hardline communist homeland.

• It’s hard to imagine why someone would want to go back to North Korea – described by some defectors as “hell on earth” - after escaping the totalitarian regime that has the world’s worst human rights record. But some North Koreans are doing just that – volunteering to risk their lives to return to a hostile country in order to spread the Gospel. Underground University is a new project by Colorado Springs-based ministry Seoul USA that will train and equip North Korean defectors with tools they need to return to their homeland for ministry.

• North Korea will hold its Arirang Festival, the world's largest mass gymnastics show, from August to mid-October, a US tour agency said on 17 Feb. Pyongyang has intermittently held the annual Arirang festival, named after Korea's famous folk song, since 2002, mobilizing some 100,000 people for synchronized acrobatics, gymnastics, dances and flip-card mosaic animations. The months-long show, also held in 2005 and 2008, is believed to bring in badly-needed foreign currency and promote the regime's socialism. A U.N. committee has expressed concerns at the mobilization of children for the event.

• The population of North Korea totaled 24.05 million as of Oct. 2008, reported Radio Free Asia on 14 Feb, citing the preliminary census by the United Nations Population Fund. There were 11.72 million men and 12.33 million women. South Pyeongan Province was the most populated province, with 4.05 million and the capital city Pyongyang had 3.26 million people. North Korea conducted a census survey for the first time in 15 years since 1993 with the help of the UNFPA in October last year.

• As the health condition of General Secretary Kim Jong-il of North Korea has been attracting attention, government officials in China, a state friendly to North Korea, have become edgy about the movements of countries concerned that are actively collecting information on North Korea. Chinese sources have revealed that a senior official at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences – a government-affiliated think tank – is being investigated on the suspicion that he might have leaked information on North Korea to South Korea, and that China is tightening control [over information to prevent leaks] by taking such measures as issuing instructions not to get in touch with people at foreign embassies and news media alone without getting permission.