In and Around North Korea: 07 - 13 February 2009

• The US and North Korea are scheduled to have their first government-level meeting since President Barack Obama’s inauguration during the Northeast Asia Peace and Security Mechanism working group to be held in Moscow from 19 – 20 Feb. North Korea plans to send Jung Tae-yang, vice director general of the foreign ministry’s American bureau and the US will be represented by Deputy Assistance Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Alexander a. Arvizu.

• A group of US experts, led by John Lewis, professor emeritus at Stanford University, plans to visit North Korea in late February for talks about the country’s denuclearization process, diplomatic sources said Monday (09 Feb). Lewis’ group will be the second private-sector US delegation to visit North Korea at a time when President Obama works to formulate his administration’s foreign policy. Among the members on the trip will be Siegfried Hecker, a nuclear weapons expert and co-director of Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation. Hecker last visited North Korea in Feb 08 where he met with North Korean Foreign Ministry officials.

• A group of American experts on North Korean affairs, including former US ambassador to South Korea Stephen Bosworth, wrapped up a visit to the North that ended on Saturday (07 Feb). The group met with North Korean officials such as chief nuclear negotiator Kim Kye-gwan to exchange views on direct talks between Pyongyang and Washington and the North Korean nuclear issue. Bosworth stated that “[North Korea] said we should all wait and see,” and that “there were no threats, no indication that they were concerned.” He also stated that the group came away with the impression that the North wants to continue the nuclear disablement process. In reference to possible preparations for a missile test, Bosworth stated that North Korea “treated the missile issue as just a normal run-of-the-mill issue.”

• North Korea’s Rodong Sinmun stated in a signed commentary on Saturday (07 Feb) that the “DPRK, a member of the international community, has an option to advance into space and a legitimate right to participate in the space scientific and technological race,” and that the “DPRK’s policy of advance into space and its use for peaceful purposes is just.” It noted that Iran’s recent satellite launch (03 Feb) has not only demonstrated its national power but also shown to the world that there can be no longer any monopoly on the use and development of space.

• KCNA reported that on 11 Feb, Vice Marshal of the Korean People’s Army Kim Yong Chun was appointed as minister of the People’s Armed Forces of the National Defense Commission of the DPRK and KPA General Ri Yong Ho as chief of the KPA General Staff. The announcement comes earlier than expected, as South Korean analysts have largely forecast that North Korea may reshuffle its military after its parliamentary vote on 8 Mar and before the founding anniversary of the KPA on 25 Apr.

• North Korea’s Korean Central Broadcasting Station reported on 06 Feb that Kim Jong-il inspected the command of KPA Large Combined Unit 324. He was accompanied by leading commanding officers of the army, including KPA Generals Hyon Chol Hae and Ri Myong Su. KCNA reported on 08 Feb that Kim Jong-il provided field guidance to the Rakwon Machine Complex, stressing the need for it to boost the manufacture of various types of machines products to include excavators and oxygen plants. KCNA reported on 11 Feb that Kim Jong-il inspected Unit 681 under the KPA Artillery Command and watched a firing exercise. Kim was accompanied by Vice Marshal Kim Yong Chun, KPA General Ri Yong Ho, Kim Ki Nam, secretary of the WPK Central Committee, and Chang Song-taek.

• According to Western diplomatic source in China on 09 Feb, Director Wang Jiarui, Communist Party International Liaison Department director, during discussions with Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang on 23 Jan, reportedly was not able to find unusual signs, to include traces of a preoperative haircut or the use of a wig, indicating that Kim had received brain surgery.

• An oath-taking rally took place in the Paektusan Secret Camp, the time-honored holy land of the Sun, on Thursday (12 Feb) to celebrate the birthday (16 Feb) of leader Kim Jong Il. Present there were senior officials of the party, the army and the state, leading officials of party and armed forces organs, ministries and national institutions and working people's organizations, servicepersons of the Korean People's Army (KPA), members of the 618 Construction Shock Brigade and officials and working people of Ryanggang Province. Led by KPA Vice Marshal Kim Yong Chun, vice-chairman of the DPRK National Defence Commission and minister of the People's Armed Forces, all the participants in the rally firmly vowed to share idea, will and destiny with Kim Jong Il and remain true to the WPK's songun (military-first) leadership.

• A recent increase of post-Korean War generation hard-line military officials in the North Korean leadership may be behind escalated tensions on the peninsula, South Korean officials said yesterday The Unification Ministry on Wednesday issued a publication titled “2009 North Korea Power Elite,” analyzing 302 top North Korean officials. According to the report, 51 officials in the Workers’ Party, central government and military have been appointed since 2007. “We only analyzed confirmed personnel changes announced by the North Korean government or state media,” a Unification Ministry official said. “We did not rely on rumors or indirectly collected information. If we took into account such nonpublic information, the scope of the shake-up would have been even greater.”

• On 10 Feb, Rodong Sinmun called for the “inheritance’ of the older generations’ economic drive to build a strong nation. Analysts stated that the recurring theme of inheritance in North Korean media appeared to be aimed at mobilizing young generations for the country’s economic drive while simultaneously disseminating the notion that Kim Jong-il’s power should be handed down to one of his sons.

• Eqypt's largest telecommunications company, Orascom Telecom, commenced cell phone services at the end of last year in Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea. This is a joint venture business with a North Korean company, and reportedly garnered 5,000 subscribers in the first two weeks of operation. But the question is, “will cell phones gain widespread use under the totalitarian regime that rules North Korea?” According to Naguib Sawiris, the 54-year-old CEO of the Orascom Group, "This is the first step toward an open economy. Our business will be a success." At Orascom's headquarters building in Cairo, Sawiris spoke with conviction. "The government [of North Korea] has given the citizens permission to own cell phones. This is a major change. They are serious about opening up the economy. That is why we decided to invest [in this project]."

• Tessa Morris-Suzuki, professor of Japanese history at Australian National University, stated that about 200 North Korean defectors have settled in Japan in recent years with most of them being Korean-Japanese who moved to North Korea from Japan for more than two decades from the late 1950s. Suzuki expected more will follow suit to return to Japan amid worsening economic conditions in North Korea.

• US Defense Secretary (SECDEF) Robert M. Gates spoke with members of the press during a briefing at the Pentagon on 10 Feb (EST – 11 Feb Korea Standard Time). During the briefing, the SECDEF addressed North Korea’s possible preparations for a missile launch and stated that during the last missile launch, the North Korean missile “flew for a few minutes before crashing” and that “the range of the Taepo Dong II remains to be seen.” The SECDEF also stated, “it would be nice if North Korea would focus on getting positive messages across to…its negotiating partners about verification and moving forward with the denuclearization.” In response to the question, “The last time the North Koreans tried to shoot a Taepo Dong, the missile defense system was put on alert and the US was prepared to shoot it down if it came in the direction of American Territory. Do you intend to do the same if the North Koreans proceed with their preparations?” SECDEF Gates stated that he intends to make sure that the Secretary of State, national security adviser, President and Vice President understand what “our capabilities are, and that that's an option out there should we deem it necessary.”
  
  

  Comment: While US reporting stated that the SECDEF played down the notion that any Taepodong-2 launch would pose a danger to the US, ROK media coverage focused on the SECDEF’s comment that the US possesses the capability to intercept the North Korean missile should it become necessary. Although North Korean media have not yet responded to SECDEF Gates’ tatement, “KCNA” and “Minju Josun” released articles on 10 Feb attacking SECDEF Gates and his support of the “Reliable Replacement Warhead” (RRW).

• Yonhap reported on 11 Feb that a South Korean source stated that “vehicles carrying equipment needed for missile launches are continuing to travel to the Musudan-ri base,” and that “at the current pace, [North Korea] could inject fuel within a month.” CNN reported on 11 Feb that according to a senior U.S. official, an image by a U.S. spy satellite revealed North Korea was “assembling telemetry equipment at the site” and “that so far, there is no direct evidence of a missile being moved to the launch pad.”

• A Pakistani court freed Abdul Qadeer Khan, one of the most successful nuclear proliferators in history, from house arrest on Friday (06 Feb), lifting the restrictions imposed on him since 2004 when he publicly confessed to running an illicit nuclear network. According to a 10 Feb statement by State Department spokesman Robert Wood, Deputy Secretary Steinberg met with the Pakistani foreign minister in Munich and expressed the U.S. concern about the court decision and that the Deputy Secretary received assurances from the Pakistani Government that Mr. Khan would not continue to be a proliferation threat.

• South Korean government officials believe that the most likely provocation during North Korea’s current grandstanding could be the test-firing of short-range missiles across the Northern Limit Line (NLL). North Korea has a surface-to-surface missile base on Chodo Island, Hwanghae province, from which it test-fired missiles in Oct 08. Officials also stated that there could be inter-Korean naval skirmishes along the NLL or although highly unlikely, a possible test-fire of mid-range missiles at the open sea near Jeju Island.

• On 10 Feb, Yonhap reported that a South Korean official at the Joint Chiefs of Staff stated that it was true that no Chinese boats have been spotted since 04 Feb and that there were no unusual military movements north of the border. Thus far, USFK J2/JIOC-K OSINT observed three Chinese Internet posts that support the defense official’s statement. On 23 Jan, the Shandong Marine Fishing and Production Management Station released a warning on its website urging fishing boats to “resolutely refrain from illegal fishing operations in waters in the DPRK-ROK sea border” as “military conflicts could arise easily under the tense relations between the DRPK and the ROK.” The warning applied to both the West and East coasts. The Weihai Economic and Technological Development Zone and the General Office of Ganjingzi District Government carried similar warnings on their websites on 04 and 06 Feb respectively.

• Hyun In-taek, the ROK Unification Minister nominee, defended South Korea’s tough North Korea policy during his parliamentary hearing on Monday (09 Feb), rebutting harsh criticism with offers to change Pyongyang’s hostile stance through dialogue amid heightened inter-Korean tension. Hyun vowed to consider humanitarian aid and respect inter-Korean summit accords, but his broad commitment failed to dispel the skepticism voiced by the opposition over his suitability. Hyun, a political science professor at Korea University, was the major architect of the Denuclearization, Openness, 3000 campaign, which seeks to help North Korea raise its gross domestic income to $3,000 if it abandons its nuclear program.

• Seoul's new unification minister said Thursday (12 Feb) he will seek to resume humanitarian aid and meet with North Korean officials to mend inter-Korean relations, but retained his tough message on the North's nuclear weapons program. Hyun In-taek, a hawkish foreign policy expert, took over the post from a moderate official amid escalating tension along the inter-Korean border. "For the peace of the Korean Peninsula and the advancement of inter-Korean relations, I am willing to meet and talk with North Korea's responsible officials anytime, anywhere, on any agenda and in any form," Hyun said at his inauguration ceremony.

• South Korea needs to strengthen its early warning system with regard to North Korea, the country's new spy chief said Thursday (12 Feb), calling for full preparations against security threats. "We need to beef up an early warning system to cope with any moves by North Korea," Won Sei-hoon, the head of the National Intelligence Service (NIS), told his staff. "We also have to fully prepare for any terror and international crimes." Won, a former minister of public administration and security, was appointed by President Lee Myung-bak last month to head the spy agency.

• Japanese Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone visited South Korea (09 – 10 Feb) to meet with his counterpart, Yu Myung Hwan, and President Lee Myung Bak. At the conclusion of talks on 10 Feb, Japan and South Korea agreed on concrete plans for joint assistance for Afghan reconstruction and close cooperation in antipiracy operations in Somali waters. They also reaffirmed the importance of close trilateral cooperation with the US and the need for progress in the denuclearization of North Korea through the six-party talks. Both ministers shared concerns over North Korea’s recent series of harsh remarks and urged North Korea to “behave in a way that would contribute to the region’s stability.”

• South Korean brigadier general Chun In-bum told reporters that the US and South Korea are pushing to adopt a new war plan against North Korea to reflect the change in the decades-old military alliance and that the war plan will be tested during the Ulchi Freedom Guardian exercise in August this year.

• U.S. Secretary of State Clinton stated at a news conference on 10 Feb that she hopes North Korea’s recent rhetoric is not a “precursor of any action that would up the ante, or threaten the stability and peace and security” in the region. Secretary of State Clinton is scheduled to make her first visit to Asia as secretary of state next week (16-22 Feb).

• A British lawmaker just back from a visit to Pyongyang urged the new US administration on Wednesday (11 Feb) to normalize ties with North Korea as part of a broader approach to the communist state. Lord David Alton called for joint international efforts to address the North's human rights record and humanitarian issues and not just its nuclear weapons programme. "The creation of a US embassy in Pyongyang should be a top priority for the incoming (US) dministration," Alton, chairman of the All Party Parliamentary Group on North Korea, said in a written presentation to South Korea's parliament.