In and Around North Korea: 21 - 27 February 2009

• Striking a different tone from American intelligence officials, Secretary of State Clinton cast doubt s on the existence of North Korea’s purported highly enriched uranium program, in what some observers here believe is an indicator of Washington’s changing priorities in talks on denuclearizing the reclusive country. When referring to the suspected program in an interview with US network Fox News on 20 Feb, Clinton said, “I think that there is a sense, among many who have studied this, that there may be some program somewhere, but no one can point to any specific location nor can they point to any specific outcome of whatever might have gone on, if anything did.” She added, “I don’t have any doubt that they would try whatever they possibly could. Have they? I don’t know that and nobody else does either.”

• A source at the United Nations said on 21 Feb that a plan to send a United Nations special envoy to North Korea next month has been called off due to North Korea’s unwillingness to hold dialogue at this time. A group of U.N. delegates led by Lynn Pascoe, U.N. Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs, had planned to visit Pyongyang in early March but North Korea has rejected the offer, the source told Yonhap News Agency. The appointment of the high-profile figure as special envoy to North Korea has been viewed as a sign that Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is moving to take a greater role in dealing with Pyongyang's reported plans to test-fire a ballistic missile.

• A South Korean official said on 22 Feb that all participants of the Northeast Asia Peace and Security Mechanism Working Group, held from 19 – 20 Feb in Moscow, Russia, reached a full agreement that a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula is key to peace and stability in North East Asia.

• Stephen Bosworth, US special representative for North Korea, will lead the US delegation at future six-party talks on ending North Korea's nuclear ambitions, the State Department said on 23 Feb. That's a sharp departure from the Bush administration, under which the multilateral talks were led by an assistant secretary of state Christopher Hill. "Ambassador Bosworth is the lead for the United States," deputy spokesman Gordon Duguid said, quelling speculation that Sung Kim, special envoy for the six-party talks, would lead the US delegation at future rounds since Bosworth intends to keep his job as a college dean in Massachusetts.

• According to Secretary of State Clinton’s remarks on 26 Feb (27 Feb Korea time), Ambassador Bosworth, Special Representative for North Korea policy, along with Ambassador Sung Kim, Special Envoy for the Six-Party Talks, will be departing for Seoul, Tokyo, Beijing and Moscow early next week to consult on next steps to move the Six-Party process forward.

• North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has promoted a renowned hawk to a top military post, signaling a continuing hard-line against South Korea, according to analysts. General O Kuk-Ryol was appointed vice chairman of the National Defense Commission, said an official statement published on 20 Feb by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. O, born in 1931, is one of Kim's confidants and a "renowned hawk" who has advocated a hard-line stance against South Korea, Yang Moo-Jin, a professor at Seoul's University of North Korean Studies, told AFP. "His promotion is seen as another strong message towards South Korea," he said. "It is also aimed at enhancing stability in the military by appointing Kim's trusted old guard to a key post."

• US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton went further than other U.S. officials in touching upon a possible succession situation in North Korea on 20 Feb, saying the sensitive topic is "something you have to think about." The top US diplomat affirmed that current leader Kim Jong il is Washington's negotiation partner, but her unusual remarks on uncertainty in Pyongyang suggested that the new US government is taking into account what could happen in the post-Kim era as it shapes policy on North Korea, analysts said.

• North Korea will likely disclose the names of its new lawmakers following the March 8 parliamentary elections, a Seoul spokesman said on 23 Feb, which could provide a decisive clue about succession rumors surrounding leader Kim Jong-il's third son. The North's rubber-stamp parliament has no power, but membership in it is believed to be an essential step toward joining the political elite in the communist state. Sources told Yonhap last week that the youngest of the leader's three sons, Kim Jong-un, 26, has registered as a candidate for the upcoming election in a sign of nascent succession process.

• South Korea's intelligence chief said on 25 Feb that another father-to-son succession is possible in North Korea, the first reference by a senior Seoul official to the future of the Kim Jong-il regime in Pyongyang. "A three-generation succession appears to be possible," Won Sei-hoon, chief of the National Intelligence Service, was quoted as saying in a closed-door parliamentary briefing.

• China has invited North Korean leader Kim Jong-il for a summit with Chinese President Hu Jintao, as the two allied nations celebrate their 60th year of diplomatic relations, Pyongyang's state media said on 26 Feb. The invitation was offered a day earlier by Jia Qinglin, chairman of the People's Political Consultative Conference of China and the fourth-ranking member of the Communist Party's politburo standing committee, to a visiting delegation of the Workers' Party of North Korea, according to the Korean Central Broadcasting Station (KCBS). "Mutual visits by the leaders of the two countries are the most essential and irreplaceable in developing bilateral relations," Jia was quoted as telling the North Korean officials by the KCBS.

• Leader Kim Jong-il said that in order to solve the food problem, the main in clothing, food and housing, it is imperative to send a large quantity of fertilizer to the countryside while giving on-the-spot guidance to the Hungnam Fertilizer Complex some time ago. This news is arousing forcefully the Korean people to increase grain production, upholding the tasks put forth in the joint New Year editorial from the beginning of the year. The state is strengthening material, technical and labor support to the countryside to solve the shortage of food on its own at any cost this year.

• North Korea's human rights record is abysmal, with authorities even killing some babies upon birth in a vast network of prisons, the US State Department charged. The scathing report Wednesday (25 Feb) comes as the new Barack Obama administration reviews its way forward with North Korea, which has hinted it is on the verge of a long-range missile test. "North Korea's human rights record remained abysmal," the State Department said in its global report for 2008, in some of its harshest criticism of any country. "While the regime continued to control almost all aspects of citizens' lives ... reports of abuse emerged from the country with increased frequency," it said.

• A former adviser to U.S. President Barack Obama on Asian affairs said 19 Feb North Korea is highly likely to fire a long-range missile in the weeks ahead. "There is a real possibility that in the coming weeks North Korea will end up testing a long-range missile," said Gordon Flake at a forum on North Korea.

• Space is mankind's common asset [chaebu], and the peaceful use of space is becoming a worldwide trend today. According to the policy for space development and peaceful use of the government of the Republic, the research and development work to launch an artificial earth satellite with [our] own power and technology have been carried out consistently in our country since the 1980s. Currently, [we] are carrying out in full swing the preparatory work to launch a test communications satellite "Kwangmyo'ngso'ng No 2" via carrier rocket "U'nha No 2" at the Tonghae [East Sea] satellite launch site located in Hwadae County, North Hamgyo'ng Province.

• North Korea appears to be setting up radars and assessment equipment but has yet to mount a suspected long-range missile at a launch pad on its east coast, a South Korean source said on 24 Feb. The communist state said earlier in the day it is preparing to launch a rocket that would carry a satellite into space. US and S. Korean officials believe the North may be getting ready to test-fire its longest-range missile, the Taepodong-2.

• The United States will deal with a missile test by North Korea in three stages. Until the test, the US is using a double-pronged strategy of persuasion and pressure. In the event Pyongyang nonetheless fires a missile, the US plans to intercept it. North Korea is believed to be planning to fire a missile over Japan and drop it in the Pacific, as it did with a Taepodong-1 missile in August 1998. In the third stage, the US plans to convene a UN Security Council session immediately and discuss resuming sanctions against North Korea.

• North Korea's official announcement on on24 Feb that it would launch a satellite, not a missile, could affect the response of the US, which has warned it could intercept any missile that was fired at the American mainland. While few believe the satellite claim, the announcement means the projectile can only be intercepted if positively identified as a missile to avoid charges of violating North Korea's sovereignty.

• Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee told a National Assembly session on 24 Feb North Korea will be in violation of a UN Security Council resolution whether it launches a missile or, as it claims, a satellite and faces UN sanctions. The remarks follow a similar warning from the US. The warning is based on the paragraph 5 of the UN Security Council Resolution 1718 adopted on the heels of North Korea's nuclear test in October 2006. The paragraph “decides that (North Korea) shall suspend all activities related to its ballistic missile program and in this context re-establish its pre-existing commitments to a moratorium on missile launching.” In the unlikely event that North Korea does put a satellite into orbit, there is room for a dispute on sanctions against the North. "There is no international law or treaty that bans or sanctions the use of space," notes Prof. Kim Yong-hyun of Dongguk University. China and Russia, both permanent members of the UN Security Council, have yet to respond to North Korea's preparations for a missile test. "If what North Korea launches is clearly not a long-range missile, China and Russia are unlikely to step forward to sanction the North," a researcher at a state think tank said.

• South Korean and US intelligence said on 25 Feb North Korea has significantly improved its facilities for missile launch, with fueling stations built underground at the Taepodong-2 launch base at Musudan-ri in North Hamkyong Province. Experts said South Korean authorities could find it more difficult to closely monitor signs of an imminent missile launch. Senior Seoul officials said Pyongyang completed facilities for putting liquid fuel into a missile projectile at an underground space near the launch pad at Musudan-ri between late last year and early this year.

• North Korea may have advanced its fuel type and injection systems for its long-range ballistic missile, allowing its leader Kim Jong-il greater freedom in choosing when to go ahead with a launch, officials and missile experts said on26 Feb. It took the North Korean authorities several days to inject liquid fuel into a Taepodong-2 missile that crashed less than a minute after takeoff in a July 2006 test. South Korean officials and experts say the fueling time could be reduced to a single day if the communist country has fully developed the capability to produce solid fuel for its long-range missiles. Solid fuel, which is thicker than jelly but softer than a tire, can be instantly loaded into a missile, allowing authorities to drastically cut the time needed for launch preparations.

• North Korea appears to have begun testing radars and other monitoring equipment as it moves briskly to launch what it claims will be a satellite, a South Korean source said on 27 Feb. "Considering the brisk activity at the Musudan-ri base, we've concluded that the North's authorities have started testing radars and other equipment as they assemble them," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he is not allowed to disclose the information to the media.

• "If a missile leaves the launch pad we'll be prepared to respond upon direction of the president," Keating told ABC News. "I'm not a betting man but I'd go like 60/40, 70/30 that it will, they will attempt to launch a satellite. There's equipment moving up there that would indicate the preliminary stages of preparation for a launch. So I'd say it's more than less likely."

• Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada suggested on 27 Feb that Japan might shoot down the North Korean ballistic missile with its ballistic missile shield if the missile heads toward Japan. "The Defense Ministry has long been considering such a thing (intercepting a North Korean ballistic missile)," Hamada told a news conference. "It's not something we have to comment on in one way or another just because we have a situation like this now."

• South Korea would sternly respond to any preemptive attack by North Korea on South Korean warships along the disputed maritime border in the Yellow Sea by striking back at the North's military installations from which the attack originates, Seoul's defense chief said on 20 Feb. "We will clearly respond to any preemptive artillery or missile attack by North Korea," Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee said at a parliamentary hearing.

• On 24 Feb, North Korea conducted a coastal artillery live fire exercise on the west coast near Yo’n-p’yo’ng Island, close to the Northern Limit Line (NLL). According to the ROK Ministry of Defense, the North conducted the live fire from the coastal artillery units deployed in Haeju and Eung-jin Peninsula once in the morning and once in the afternoon of 24 Feb. The ROK Ministry of Defense assessed the live fire exercises were a part of the “routine winter training cycle exercise, and not an indication of provocation.”

• South Korea's top naval commander was quoted on 24 Feb as warning that North Korea could provoke in a fashion "beyond our imagination" as he inspected South Korea's east coast despite rising concerns of an armed clash on the western side. The inspection by Navy Chief of Staff Jung Ok-keun came just days after the South Korean chairman of general staff said at a parliamentary hearing that the North could deploy surprise tactics by provoking at an unexpected site along the border with South Korea.

• The ROK defense chief said on 25 Feb that the ROK military would firmly respond to any provocation from North Korea, as the nation struggles with rising tension caused by Pyongyang's latest saber-rattling attempts. "The military would respond in a clear and firm manner against provocative action from North Korea, and not be shaken in any way by the stereotypical and rhetorical threats of the North," Lee said at a meeting marking the 20th anniversary of a veterans' club. He stressed that the military is not simply hoping for the North to refrain from provoking the South, but that it has the ability and combat-readiness to win even if it does.

• South Korea will not submit to North Korea's threats regardless of how long it takes before inter-Korean talks are resumed, a senior presidential adviser said on 25 Feb. Park Hyung-joon, senior assistant for public affairs, also said North Korea's launch of what it claims is a satellite will not be condoned by the international community, even if it is a satellite and not a missile as suspected. "What North Korea needs to do right now is to take an open-minded approach to six-party talks and inter-Korean relations, rather than trying to seek gains by threatening the international community," Park said in an interview on a local radio program.

• North Korea strongly denounced on 26 Feb a series of concerns recently voiced by South Korean ministers over its military threat against the South and alleged preparations for a missile launch, repeating its claim that the launch is for a satellite and is wholly under its sovereign rights. A spokesman for the North's Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea, a powerful Communist Party organization handling inter-Korean relations, rebutted, saying, "As far as the issue of satellite launch is concerned, it is the North's sovereign right universally recognized which does not allow mere (South Korean) puppets to take issue with it." In the report carried by the (North) Korean Central News Agency, the unidentified spokesman said the North is ready for "everything as for their loudmouthed 'sanctions', 'intercepting' and 'retaliatory strike.'"

• Twenty lawmakers urged Seoul and Pyongyang leaders to work toward resuming tours to Mt. Geumgang, saying the travel ban has taken a toll on South and North Koreans heavily dependent on tourism income. Seoul suspended the cross-border tours, which kicked off in November 1998, five months ago, shortly after a female South Korean tourist was killed by a North Korean soldier last July. The North has offered no official apology for the shooting. Since the suspension of the program, dozens of South Korean businesses and approximately 1,000 travel agents that offered organized trips to the North have gone to the brink of bankruptcy,'' said independent lawmaker Song Hun-suk, an architect of the resolution.

• North Korea has completed the deployment of brand-new ballistic missiles capable of reaching the US territory of Guam and expanded its special forces after examining US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, South Korea said on 23 Feb. The defense ministry also said in its latest assessment of the communist neighbor that the North has recently bolstered its naval forces, reinforcing submarines and developing new types of torpedoes. The 2008 defense white paper, published after weeks of delay, terms the North's 1.19-million-strong military an "immediate and grave threat," as tension runs high along a western sea border. "After examining the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, North Korea appears to have developed new strategies that can complement its shortfalls while reinforcing its strengths," said Shin Won-sik, deputy of policy planning at the Ministry of National Defense.

• The United States reiterated its commitment to defend South Korea against any provocation from North Korea as the reclusive communist state threatens a missile launch and even imminent war on 25 Feb. "All I can tell you is that the US-ROK alliance is a strong one. We have many plans for a multitude of contingencies, were there to be provocative action by the North," Geoff Morrell, Pentagon press secretary, told a daily news conference. "And we feel we are well prepared to defend the South against any provocation."

• North Korean authorities have released the Russian dry cargo ship Omsky-122, which was earlier detained near the North Korean coast on 17 Feb. The Russian consulate general in Ch'ongjin confirmed that the Russian dry cargo ship Omsky-122 was released at 2:30 p.m. local time and headed for Vladivostok.