Korean Peninsula Today, 02 July 2009

Doubts Cast on Proposed 5-party Talks (JoongAng Ilbo)

Japan's Vice Foreign Minister Mitoji Yabunaka said there are no real prospects for five-party denuclearization talks, a day after leaders of South Korea and Japan agreed to consider holding such talks among dialogue partners of the six-party talks, aside from North Korea.

Kyodo News reported that on Monday, Yabunaka said in a press conference that he didn't foresee any possibility of the five-party dialogue.

"If I were asked whether there is any concrete prospect for the realization [of the five-party talks], we are not in such a situation," Yabunaka was quoted as saying.

The vice minister's comment came only one day after South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso agreed to consider the possibility of such discussions among South Korea, Japan, the United States, Russia and China.

Yabunaka added that the six-party talks, which have been stalled since last December, have not produced concrete results. "It's time to seriously discuss which approach would lead to better results," he said. "And the five-party talks would be one such approach."

President Lee first broached the five-party idea in an interview with the Wall Street Journal in mid-June and then before his summit with U.S. President Barack Obama on June 16. But South Korea's partners have not warmed to the prospect. They've said the five-party discussions should only be considered within the context of the six-party talks and should merely be a step to bringing North Korea back to the six-party table, but not a separate entity.

In a conference last week in Seoul, ambassadors to Seoul from the United States Japan, Russia and China all stressed the importance of the six-party framework.

The South Korean government has since retracted from using the words "five-party talks," instead terming the occasion "five-party consultations."

North Korea has said it would never return to the six-party table. It has also declared it would "weaponize" extracted plutonium and enrich uranium to produce more fuel for nuclear weapons.

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Fuji TV Shows Alleged Photos of DPRK Leader's Third Son, Daughter (Fuji Television – Original in Japanese)

Tokyo Fuji Television in Japanese during its regularly scheduled "JNN Super News" program at 0818 GMT on 25 June 2009 carries an approximately 18.5-minute report on four photos of a boy thought to be of Kim Cho'ng-un, DPRK leader Kim Jong Il's third son, who was reportedly chosen to succeed his father

The program starts by showing four photos of a boy taken in 1994, 1995, 1996 and 1998. The program announcer, Yuko Ando, says these photos, which FNN (Fuji News Network, news network of Fuji Television) has obtained over the past several years, are thought to be of Kim Cho'ng-un.

Ando says FNN asked an expert to examine these photos and was told that the boys in these pictures were not necessarily the same person.

According to the program, the source of the photos starting from 1994 to 196 was the yearbooks of the Bern International School in Bern, Switzerland. The boy's name listed in the yearbook was Kim Tae-Hoon of South Korea. The program says Kim Tae-Hoon in the 1994 photo is said to be Kim Cho'ng-un, and there is another photo of Kim Tae-Hoon in the 1995 yearbook too. The boy was in fourth grade in 1994 and in fifth grade in 1995.

Since Kim Jong Il's second son, Kim Cho'ng-ch'o'l attended the same international school as "Pak Ch'o'l" of North Korean nationality, the program questions why Kim Tae-Hoon, who is believed to be Kim Cho'ng-un, had a South Korean nationality and lived in a place different from the second son.

Looking at the possibility of Kim Tae-Hoon being Cho'ng-un, the program focuses on two photos of Kim Tae-Hoon taken in 1994 and 1995. Kenji Fujimoto, who the intelligence authorities say is "the only person" in the West who had met Kim Cho'ng-un in person, appears on the program and confirms that the boys in these two photos are Kim Cho'ng-un.

Fujimoto says Cho'ng-un has bigger earlobes, his mouth is often slightly opened as shown in the photos, and has a round chin.

Tokyo Dental College Professor Masatsugu Hashimoto, who has been to North Korea to help identify Japanese abductees, also says that the boys in the two photos have the same ears and they are highly likely of the same individual.

However, regarding the photo in the 1996 yearbook, Fujimoto says the boy in the photo is a child of Ko Yo'ng-hu'i's younger sister.

Meanwhile, the program examines another boy named Pak Un from North Korea who attended a local public school from 1998 to 2000. Pak Un is said to be Kim Cho'ng-un. After the program shows Pak Un in two group photos taken in 1998, his former classmate says, "Pak Un used to wear a Michael Jordan's basketball jersey." Fujimoto also says that Cho'ng-un played basketball everyday and used to wear jerseys of his favorite basketball players, including Michael Jordan.

The principal of the public school says Pak Un attended school as a son of a foreign diplomat. The principal adds that he cannot say whether Pak Un was the son of Kim Jong Il.

Are Kim Tae-Hoon and Pak Un the same person?

If Kim Tae-Hoon, who attended the Swiss international school from 1994 to 1996, and Pak Un, who attended a Swiss public school from 1998 to 2000, are both Kim Cho'ng-un, the program raises a question why Cho'ng-un transferred to the public school from the international school.

DPRK Commentator Pyo'n Chin-il says that Ko Yo'ng-hu'i's younger sister and her husband defected to the United States in May 1998, and this could be the reason for the school transfer. He speculates that Kim Jong Il, being alarmed, separated his two sons studying at the same school and had one of them return home while transfering the other to continue his education.

The program then compares the 1995 photo and 1998 photo. Professor Hashimoto says that the boys in these photos are most likely different persons because of the difference in the features of their nose. Fujimoto also comments that he cannot say the boy in the 1998 photo is Kim Cho'ng-un although he looks like Cho'ng-un, according to the program.

Then, the program shows a photo of a girl named "Cho'ng Sun [as transliterated]," and a video clip of her dancing ballet on the stage. Fujimoto confirms that she is Kim Jong Il's oldest daughter, Kim Yo'-cho'ng, whom he calls Princess Yo'-cho'ng. He says that she was good at dancing just like her mother. According to the program, she is said to have attended the same public school with the boy believed to be Cho'ng-un, from 1998 to 2000.

The program learns that a boy, who claimed to be her older brother, often came to a ballet school to pick her up. A person who saw the boy at the ballet school pointed out the boy in the 1994 photo as her brother, according to the program. Furthermore, the program discovers that Cho'ng Sun was living in the same apartment where the second son, Cho'ng-ch'o'l, and Pak Un lived.

The program says there is no solid evidence that can determine the identity of the boy or the girl in the photographs. Back in the studio, Ando concludes the report, saying mysteries about the third son remain unsolved.

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NKorea Food Situation 'Critical': UN (AFP)

BEIJING - Hungry North Koreans, and especially children, face a "critical" food situation as donations have dried up amid the country's nuclear standoff with the world, the UN's food aid agency said Wednesday.

Torben Due, the World Food Program's representative in North Korea, said the agency also had been told by the government there to scale back its operations, without being given a specific reason.

"It is a very serious problem for the population in the DPRK (North Korea) as they do not have enough to eat," Due told reporters.

He said the agency, which launched an emergency operation late last year amid a deteriorating food outlook, has had to pare back its original goal of reaching 6.2 million of the hungry to just 2.27 million.

"For adults it doesn't mean a lot if you live for a few months on a diet of cereals and vegetables but for children it is critical," he said.

"We see an increase in the number of children being admitted to hospitals with severe malnutrition," he added, while stressing that observation was based on anecdotal evidence and could not yet be quantified or verified.

An escalating standoff over North Korea's nuclear programs spiked on May 25 when it carried out its second nuclear test, followed by further missile launches, which resulted in new UN sanctions.

"We have not really received any contributions after the nuclear test was carried out," Due said.

The WFP will now operate in only 57 counties in six provinces, compared to 131 counties in eight provinces previously, Due said.

The North suffered a severe famine in the 1990s which killed hundreds of thousands. Poor weather was blamed but analysts said the inefficient command economy also played a large part.

Since then it has relied on overseas aid to feed millions of its people.

However North Korea in March refused to accept further food aid from the United States amid an escalating standoff over the country's nuclear program.

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N. Korean Rocket Capable of Hitting Half The U.S.: American Scientists (Yonhap)

SEOUL -- The long-range rocket North Korea launched in April could be converted into a ballistic missile capable of striking half of the continental U.S., two American physicists have concluded in a joint study.

North Korea launched on April 5 what it claims was a rocket designed to carry a satellite into orbit. The U.S. and its allies say nothing entered orbit, calling the "Unha-2" rocket a disguised ballistic missile capable of flying over 6,700km.

South Korean and U.S. officials have refrained from elaborating on the capabilities of the rocket, while media reports said the rocket flew at least 3,000km before falling into the Pacific Ocean.

MIT professor Theodore Postol and David Wright, a physicist at the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), said the rocket could fly even farther -- over 10,000km -- if converted into a missile.

"The Unha launcher represents a significant advance over North Korea's previous launchers and would have the capability to reach the continental United States with a payload of one ton or more if North Korea modified it for use as a ballistic missile," they said.

"It could have a range of 10,000-10,500km, allowing it to reach Alaska, Hawaii, and roughly half of the lower 48 states," they said in an article posted this week on the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

Noting that a "first-generation plutonium warhead could have a mass of 1,000kg or more," Postol and Wright said the rocket could carry a 1-ton payload as far as 7,000-7,500km even if it completed only two of its three stages.

"This would allow it to reach Alaska and parts of Hawaii, but not the lower 48 states," they said, writing on the assumption that the rocket was not designed to carry a lightweight satellite.

North Korea, which has conducted two known atomic tests since 2006 -- including one on May 25 this year -- is not believed to have obtained the capability to miniaturize nuclear warheads to mount on ballistic missiles.

South Korean defense officials believe the North has enough weapons-grade plutonium to create at least six nuclear bombs, but they said each one would weigh far more than one ton.

Postol and Wright based their analysis partly on the video footage of the rocket launch North Korea released in April, and said computer modeling and past analysis also contributed to their study.

"By measuring the distance the launcher moves as a function of time in these videos, we determined the thrust-to-weight ratio of the Unha vehicle at launch," they said. "Using estimates of the mass of the Unha launcher, we then estimated the thrust at liftoff generated by the engines."

Drawing similarities between the North Korean rocket and the components previously developed by China, Russia and Iran, the physicists concluded that "it's extremely unlikely that these technologies were indigenously produced by North Korea."

"It's likely that these critical rocket components were acquired from other countries, most notably Russia, although likely without the involvement of the Russian government," they said.

"If these guesses are true, it could mean that North Korea's indigenous missile capability could be significantly constrained if Pyongyang is denied further access to such components," they said.

North Korea is restricted from trading mass destruction weapons under sanctions imposed by the U.N. Security Council following its latest underground nuclear test.

Wright and Postol said North Korea would rely on "combining existing components in clever ways" or realize it has "a dead-end program" if it is blocked from importing technical supplies.

They also called on the U.S. to work with Russia to ascertain the extent of cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang that has likely helped North Korea build its stockpile of ballistic missiles.

"It should be a high priority for the United States to assess it and work with Russia to determine what technical assistance and components North Korea may have received," they said.

Wright and Postol also said evidence points to cooperation between Iran and North Korea, rebutting speculation that the last stage of the Unha-2 rocket was solid-fueled.

"The third stage appears to be very similar, if not identical, to the upper stage of the Iranian Safir-2 launch vehicle, which placed a small satellite in orbit in February," they said.

"Therefore, the Unha-2 appears to use a third stage with liquid rather than solid fuel," they wrote.

South Korean and U.S. officials say the final stage of the Unha-2 rocket separated but failed to ignite, plunging into the Pacific Ocean along with the payload.

Postol, whose expertise lies in ballistic missile technologies, teaches science, technology and national security policy at MIT. Wright co-directs the Global Security Program at the UCS.

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State Designation of North Korean Nuclear Entity (United States Department of State)

The U.S. Department of State today (30 Jun, EDT, or 01 Jul, KST) targeted North Korea’s nuclear proliferation network by designating Namchongang Trading Corporation (NCG) under Executive Order 13382. E.O. 13382 is an authority aimed at freezing the assets of proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and their supporters, and at isolating them from the U.S. financial and commercial systems. Entities designated under E.O. 13382 are prohibited from engaging in all transactions with any U.S. person and are subject to a U.S. asset freeze.

NCG is a North Korean nuclear-related company in Pyongyang. It has been involved in the purchase of aluminum tubes and other equipment specifically suitable for a uranium enrichment program since the late 1990s.

The Department of the Treasury also today designated Hong Kong Electronics, located in Kish Island, Iran, for providing support to North Korea’s Tanchon Commercial Bank (Tanchon) and Korea Mining Development Trading Corporation (KOMID). Tanchon and KOMID were designated by the United States under E.O. 13382 on June 28, 2005 and the UN Security Council under Resolution 1718 on April 24, 2009.

North Korea’s April 5, 2009 launch of a Taepo Dong-2 (TD-2) missile and May 25, 2009 nuclear test demonstrate a need for continued vigilance with respect to North Korea’s activities of proliferation concern. The designations add to continuing U.S. efforts to prevent North Korean entities of proliferation concern from accessing financial and commercial markets that could aid the regime’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons and the missiles capable of delivering them.

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U.S. Delegation to Brief China on N. Korea's Illegal Activities (Yonhap)

SEOUL -- A U.S. official in charge of coordinating sanctions on North Korea is expected to inform the Chinese government of Pyongyang's illicit activities and Washington's plan to implement U.N. sanctions, officials here said Wednesday [ 1 July].

The aim is to get Beijing to review the information and subsequently help enforce the U.N. sanctions against the North for its recent nuclear test, they said.

The U.S. interagency team led by Philip Goldberg, coordinator for the implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1874, left Washington earlier in the day for related consultations in Beijing, according to the State Department.

The delegation, which includes officials from the National Security Council and Departments of Treasury and Defense, plans to meet with Chinese officials on Thursday and Friday, State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said at a press briefing. He did not provide specifics, however.

The trip to Beijing comes just days after the Obama administration appointed Goldberg, a former ambassador to Bolivia, to oversee domestic and international consultations on sanctions against Pyongyang. Analysts say the move reflects Washington's resolve to see that the sanctions are effectively enforced.

They are also in agreement that China's cooperation is critical, as it is a main food and energy provider for the impoverished North.

South Korean government officials privy to the issue said the U.S. delegation is unlikely to make a direct request for China to take its own punitive steps.

"The U.S. is likely to deliver information on North Korea's illegal and suspected activities to China. It will also brief China in detail on its measures to implement Resolution 1874," a senior foreign ministry official said, asking not to be named. "It is to help China make its own decision."

A series of visits to China last month by two U.S. government delegations -- one led by Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg and the other by Michele Flournoy, undersecretary of defense for policy -- had a similar purpose, he added.

In its latest measure against North Korea, the U.S. imposed financial sanctions Tuesday on Iran's Hong Kong Electronics and North Korea's Namchongang Trading Corp., effectively freezing their U.S. assets and banning U.S. firms from engaging in business deals with them. The Treasury and State Departments said the two are involved in Pyongyang's suspected missile proliferation and trading of materials used in its nuclear program.

"North Korea uses front companies like Hong Kong Electronics and a range of other deceptive practices to obscure the true nature of its financial dealings, making it nearly impossible for responsible banks and governments to distinguish legitimate from illegitimate North Korean transactions," Stuart Levey, Undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence at the Treasury Department, said in a statement.

"Today's action is a part of our overall effort to prevent North Korea from misusing the international financial system to advance its nuclear and missile programs and to sell dangerous technology around the world," he added.

The U.S. Navy has also been trailing a North Korean freighter, the Kang Nam 1, which is presumed to be carrying weapons banned under the resolution.

The 2,000-ton vessel was initially reported to be sailing towards Myanmar, perhaps by way of Singapore, but appears to have reversed its course, foreign news agencies cited unidentified U.S. officials as saying. It remains unclear whether the ship is heading back to the North or heading to another country.

The officials said the resolution seemed to have increased pressure on Pyongyang and is proving to be an effective tool in curbing its proliferation efforts.

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N. Korea Issues Navigation Ban Covering 10 Sites for 'military Drill' (Kyodo)

Tokyo -- North Korea has issued navigation bans for 10 coastal sites along the Sea of Japan and the Yellow Sea citing military exercises, the Japan Coast Guard said Wednesday.

According to the coast guard, which was informed of the bans by the North Korean government via e-mail, the latest move covers seven sites located off the Sea of Japan coast and three sites in waters off the Yellow Sea.

The locations include an area about 263 kilometers wide (east to west) and 31 kilometers in length (north to south) off the east coast city of Wonsan through July 11 between 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. Japan time.

The other 9 restricted areas are located in the territorial waters of North Korea.

The new bans are taken as indicating that North Korea is preparing for missile launches. Pyongyang test-fired a long range missile on April 5 and conducted its second nuclear test as well as launching three short-range missiles on May 25, after issuing similar navigation bans.

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Kim Jong-il aims to make it easier for S. Korean firms in Kaesong (Hankyoreh)

Upcoming third working-level Kaesong talks and land fee requirements may necessitate a change in North Korea policy

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, speaking in reference to recent renegotiations for wages and land fees in the Kaesong (Gaeseong) Industrial Complex, is reported to have issued a special directive to make things easier for South Korean businesses located in the complex. North Korea also confirmed a one-year time limit for concluding negotiations, indicating that the Kaesong contract negotiations should be complete by mid-April of next year.

Various sources familiar with North Korea issues relayed Tuesday that North Korean officials for the complex have been pacifying officials from South Korean firms in connection with North Korea’s recent demand that the salary for workers at the complex be raised to 300 dollars per month. They say, “Appropriate measures will be taken at a level in order to make businesses feel less uneasy, since Chairman Kim has passed down an order to make things easier for the people working in Kaesong.” They also said that the reference to ‘the people working in Kaesong’ could be interpreted to the South Korean company officials who have moved into the complex.

Also noteworthy is the fact that North Korean officials relayed these remarks on June 19, immediately following the third Kaesong contact about contracts. It was at this meeting that North Korea formally proposed completing discussions on land fees at the complex by mid-April of next year. North Korean officials also expressed at that time “a readiness to resolve difficulties affecting company management for South Korean businesses as much as possible for the sake of the Kaesong Industrial Zone venture.” The difficulties referred to included limitations on land passage. North Korea also selected a time limit of roughly one year from the time the first Kaesong meeting was proposed and intimated that it might present an appeasement plan for the actual negotiations. “You could say given what was shown in the working-level talks on June 19, North Korea intends to pursue negotiations between authorities on the Kaesong complex,” a South Korean government official said.

While the background behind North Korea’s revelation of an intent to hold negotiations on the complex is not obvious, some analysts are deducing that it may have determined it to be strategically beneficial to maintain the complex, the last strand in relations with South Korea and a “box of dollars,” amid international sanctions following its long-range rocket launch and second nuclear test. Others are interpreting it as part of a strategy to use small- to mid-sized tenant businesses in the complex in a unified front to pressure the South Korean government into changing they keynote of its North Korea policy.

Whichever is the case, the possibility appears strong in light of North Korea’s change in approach that negotiations between South Korean and North Korean authorities on the Kaesong complex will proceed. However, it is still undetermined whether any concrete progress can be made in actual negotiations, as South Korea is maintaining the position that the current suggested contract changes in wages and land fees are unacceptable.

Also, in contrast with its relatively flexible position on negotiating salaries, North Korea shows no apparent sign of yielding on the scale of the hike in land fees, which amounts to 500 million dollars. However, it has been conveyed that North Korea showed some subtle signs in negotiations thus far that it might be acceptable if the 500 million dollars were delivered in the form of rice or fertilizer. “It appears that they did not necessarily say that they could accept the equivalent in rice and fertilizer, however, they indicated something like that they would not insist on the 500 million dollars increase if South Korea were to switch its North Korea policy and provide support to North Korea,” said a source familiar with the North Korea situation.

It appears that the question of whether South Korea and North Korea can make mutual concessions and compromises to use discussions about the complex as a stepping stone to improving inter-Korean relations will be slowly answered over the course of follow-up meetings, beginning with the fourth Kaesong meeting (or third working-level talks, as South Korea is calling it) which are set to take place Thursday.