Korean Peninsula Today, 14 July 2009

China lukewarm on 5-way meeting without Pyongyang (Yonhap)

SEOUL – China wants to focus diplomatic efforts on brining North Korea back to the six-way talks on its nuclear program rather than holding a separate five-way gathering without the communist ally, according to Beijing's top nuclear envoy.

"We will maintain the six-way format," Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Wu Dawei tersely told reporters here Monday when asked if China supports the five-way gathering sought by Seoul. Wu was coming out of talks with Seoul's top nuclear negotiator Wi Sung-lac and Vice Foreign Minister Kwon Jong-rak.

He reaffirmed Beijing's position that it will seek the denuclearization of the North through dialogue and peaceful means, but declined any further comments.

Wu, who chairs the six-way disarmament talks, arrived in Seoul on Sunday for a three-day stay as part of a rare regional tour that also took him to Russia, the U.S., and Japan.

Wu is unlikely to travel to North Korea during his ongoing trip, South Korean officials said. He leaves Seoul on Tuesday.

Seoul has been pushing for a five-way meeting with China, the U.S., Russia, and Japan amid North Korea's boycott of the six-way talks.

South Korean officials emphasized that holding the five-way event would be "better than doing nothing," saying it would set the stage for the five nations to demonstrate unity on North Korea and discuss ways to resume dialogue with it.

They said the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) to be held next week in Phuket, Thailand, may provide a chance.

"China maintained a prudent stance on five-way consultations," a South Korean foreign ministry official said after a closed-door meeting between the nuclear envoys. "The two sides agreed to continue study and consultations on the issue."

It was their second meeting in a month following talks in early June in Beijing.

The official said that the two sides had "frank and in-depth" consultations but that no immediate breakthrough is expected in the current deadlock.

"China seems to have felt the need for more communications with other nations after North Korea conducted a nuclear test and test-fired missiles," he said. "I think the focus (of Wu's tour) was to listen to the opinions of other nations."

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Kim Jong Il, Confirmed To Be Sick With Pancreatic Cancer (YTN Cable TV - original in Korean)

North Korea's National Defense Commission Chairman Kim Jong Il has been reported to have pancreatic cancer besides [his] previously known stroke.

Related ROK and Chinese intelligence personnel reported that Chairman Kim Jong Il is sick with pancreatic cancer and that this disease is threatening Chairman Kim's life.

The period of Chairman Kim's diagnosis of pancreatic cancer was reported to be around the same time that [he] was identified as having had a stroke last year.

Beijing medical sources stated that [Kim's] chances of survival would not exceed five years at the maximum, as pancreatic cancer is usually discovered in its last stage and considering Chairman Kim's old age.

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Skepticism Greets Media Report on Kim's Health (Voice of America News)

A South Korean television station reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has pancreatic cancer, and that his illness is life-threatening. YTN television says its report is based on information obtained by South Korean and Chinese intelligence officials.

However, it is far from certain such reports can be considered reliable, says former CNN correspondent Mike Chinoy, author of Meltdown: The Inside Story of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis. “The way information leaks out of South Korea is very prone to manipulation."

"You have the South Korean intelligence service, which is highly politicized, which has a conservative bent," says the expert with the California-based Pacific Council on International Policy. "Clearly, they know a lot, but they have a long track record of manipulating what they know for their own political purposes. These leaks tend to come to South Korean media who lap them up uncritically, put them out, then get picked up by the international media and take on a life of their own when it’s very unclear that there is any substance to it.”

Mr. Kim's health has been a focus of speculation for the past year after he reportedly suffered a stroke. He disappeared from public last August for several months. North Korean media outlets have strongly denied the reports of Mr. Kim's ill health, and published undated photos and video footage of him.

The status of Mr. Kim's health raises the issue about his succession in the communist dynasty, and who will control the country's nuclear weapons programs. Recent media reports said Mr. Kim named his youngest son, 26-year-old Kim Jong Un as his successor. In April, he promoted his brother-in-law Jang Song Thaek to the powerful national Defense Commission.

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S. Korea has 'no information' on Kim Jong Il's reported pancreatic cancer (Yonhap)

SEOUL – The South Korean government has no information on North Korean leader Kim Jong Il having pancreatic cancer as reported by a local broadcaster Monday, officials said.

"This morning, there was another report about Chairman Kim Jong Il's health, mentioning a particular illness. With regard to today's report, so far, I have no information," Unification Ministry spokesman Chun Hae-sung said in a press briefing.

Citing unidentified intelligence sources in Seoul and Washington, the cable news channel YTN said Kim, 67, was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer around the same time he is believed to have had a stroke in August last year.

The report, quoting medical sources in Beijing, said the illness was "life-threatening." Kim may not live more than five years, given the high mortality rate of pancreatic cancer patients and his old age, it said.

An official from the National Intelligence Service also said he was "unable to confirm the report."

Medical specialists in Seoul say it is impossible to judge from photographs and videos whether Kim is indeed suffering from the reported new illness. In the latest video image released last week, filmed during a memorial service for his father and North Korean founder Kim Il Sung, Kim's hair was thinner particularly on the top of his head and his build more gaunt than in early April. Such signs have been said to stem from the stroke and diabetes, which Kim has long been known to have.

"Just with the way he looks, we don't know whether it's pancreatic cancer," Park Se-hun, a cancer specialist at Samsung Medical Center, said. One can lose hair and weight from the side effects of chemotherapy, but those symptoms are not limited to pancreatic cancer," he said.

Kim's health condition is at the center of international media attention, being a decisive factor in what happens to the communist country if he dies without publicly naming a successor.

Kim is rumored to have internally named his third and youngest son, Jong-un, to succeed him. Jong-un, born to Kim's deceased third wife Ko Yong-hui and either 25 or 26 years old, is said to most resemble the leader in temperament and appearance among his siblings.

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U.S. Falls Short of Confirming Reports of Kim Jong-il's Cancer (Yonhap)

WASHINGTON – The United States Monday stopped short of confirming the report that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il suffers from pancreatic cancer and may die of the incurable disease in a relatively short period of time.

In a daily news briefing, State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said that he has "seen these reports about Kim Jong Il's health," but added, "I just have no further information that we can share with you."

Reports said that the North Korean leader may die within a year or so of pancreatic cancer, which he contracted last summer when he also apparently suffered a stroke.

Fewer than five percent of pancreatic cancer patients are said to live longer than five years.

Footage of North Korean media have recently shown Kim thin and limping, apparently in the aftermath of the stroke, although he had been seen healthy with a potbelly until last summer.

The reports on Kim's health come amid allegations that his third and youngest son, Jong-un, has been named his heir apparent.

Kelly reiterated the U.S. government's practice "not to get into any information that may be obtained though intelligence channels," and admitted "our means of getting information, of course, are very limited" since there are no diplomatic ties.

The spokesman, however, said that Washington has been closely consulting "on a bilateral basis, both with South Korea and with China," on Kim's health.

The possibility of new leadership does color North Korea's refusal to address its nuclear and ballistic missile ambitions through the six-party talks, he said.

"We have real concerns about North Korea's proliferation activities, about their plans to develop nuclear and ballistic missile technology," he said. "So, of course, we're concerned about any stories of political changes in Pyongyang."

Allegations are that North Korea's recent provocations, including its second nuclear test in three years and missile launches, aim to smoothen the process of power transition to 26-year-old Jong-un.

The North's nuclear and missile tests resulted in a strong U.N. Security Council resolution that bans the North from any further nuclear and ballistic missile tests and imposes financial sanctions and an overall arms embargo.

"And we have some very serious concerns about their actions, specifically actions that run counter to various U.N. Security Council resolutions, their refusal to address these concerns with the international community, most specifically through the six party talks," Kelly said. "And, of course, we have a process in place so the leaders in North Korea know that there is a consequence for these kinds of actions that are provocative and unduly raise tension in Northeast Asia."

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Kim Jong-il's Death 'Could Lead to Power Struggle' (Chosun Ilbo)

A power struggle could erupt in North Korea following the death of leader Kim Jong-il between his son and heir apparent Jong-un and his brother-in-law, intelligence services here speculate. The National Intelligence Service told a recent session of the National Assembly Jang Song-taek, the purported no. 2 man in North Korea, director of the Workers' Party administrative department and member of the National Defense Commission, will lead a power struggle.

The NIS said it seems certain that power in North Korea will be handed down to a third generation to Kim Jong-un. But that is expected to result in a weak power structure given Kim Jong-il's current ill health and unstable political and economic factors in the regime. Chances are that Jang and his followers could try to seize power from Kim Jong-un and his faction, it speculated.

Jang is currently helping smooth Kim junior's succession to power but apparently supported Kim's eldest son Jong-nam for the leadership at first.

The NIS said another possibility in case Kim dies before the succession has been firmly cemented is a collective leadership of party and military.

The NIS points at Kim Kyong-hee, Jang's wife and the Kim senior's younger sister, as another guardian of Kim junior.

It says Kim Kyong-hee stopped engaging in public activities after September 2003, when she was head of the Workers' Party light industry department. She had treatment for hypochondria and alcoholism. An NIS official said, "Kim Kyong-hee has been playing the role as a guardian for Kim Jong-un since she resumed her public activities as director of a party department on June 7."

The NIS predicts that Kim Jong-un will officially be declared his father's successor in 2012, the year North Korea has designated as the start of building a "powerful nation," in the latest slogan. It said it will take some time to formalize the succession given Kim Jong-un's lack of political experience and problems at home and abroad.

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Kim Jong Il Gives Field Guidance to Newly-Built Taedonggang Tile Factory (KCNA)

Pyongyang -- Kim Jong Il, general secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea and chairman of the National Defence Commission of the DPRK, gave field guidance to the newly-built Taedonggang Tile Factory.

Being briefed on the factory in front of a big map showing its panoramic view, Kim Jong Il went round its interior and exterior to learn in detail about the construction of the factory and production there.

Looking at the structures where a high level of quality has been ensured in construction and watching the production processes from where various kinds of quality building materials are being churned out without let-up, he expressed great satisfaction over the fact that the soldier builders have built the modern factory in such a manner as to let it win the admiration of the posterity. He highly appreciated their feats.

It is a very gratifying that the factory has established a production system strictly relying on locally available raw materials, he said, adding that the successful endeavors being made by all domains of the national economy including the metal industry to put them on a juche basis fully reflect the unshakable faith of the Korean people to build a great prosperous and powerful nation on this land by their own efforts, resources and technology without fail.

Looking at tiles and ceramic tiles of various sizes and colors for diverse use, he was very pleased to see the officials, workers and technicians of the factory mass-producing quality building materials in the spirit of devoted service for the people. He appreciated their efforts.

He set forth important tasks to be fulfilled by the factory, noting that it has an important role to play in developing the nation's building materials industry.

Every construction site in cities and villages requires more quality building materials, he said, underlining the need for the workers of the factory to effect a fresh turn in the production to satisfactorily meet the increasing demand for building materials.

He stressed the need to actively apply advanced technology and steadily boost the level of technical skill of workers in order to steadily improve the quality of building materials which play an important role in ensuring high quality of structures and making cities look more beautiful.

The completion of the second-phase project would help turn the factory into a large building materials production base which produces varieties of modern building materials, he noted, indicating an orientation and ways for completing the next-phase project earlier than scheduled.

He had a photo session with labor innovators of the factory.

He was accompanied by Kim Ki-nam, secretary of the WPK Central Committee, Pak Nam Gi and Jang Song Thaek, department directors of the C.C., the WPK, and KPA Generals Hyo'n Ch'o'l-hae and Ri Myo'ng-su.

Kim Jong Il's last reported public appearance was at the Ku'msusan Memorial Palace

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Cyber Sleuths Still Stumped By Latest Hack Attacks (JoongAng Ilbo)

Was North Korea behind the recent cyber sabotage or not? South Korea's top spy agency was still trying to answer that question yesterday [12 July].

In a press release issued Saturday [11 July], the National Intelligence Service said it has yet to reach a conclusion on whether North Korea was responsible for hacking attacks that paralyzed key South Korean and U.S. Web sites last week.

"We're undertaking a close and thorough investigation, bearing in mind that we have several pieces of evidence that North Korea is behind these cyber attacks," the statement read. "But we haven't reached a final conclusion that the attacks were North Korea's doing."

The agency's statement came less than 24 hours after local media reported that the agency had briefed legislators on the National Assembly's Intelligence Committee on evidence of North Korea's involvement. According to committee members who were present at the meeting, the spy agency said that North Korea had ordered a military research institute in June to "destroy South Korea's puppet communications networks in an instant."

Committee members also said the intelligence agency mentioned the presence of North Korean agents in Beijing and Shenyang in China, where they have set up overseas bases for cyber terrorism.

The intelligence agency's assessment last week left local politicians divided, with the ruling Grand National Party supporting the finding and the main opposition Democratic Party blasting the agency for taking hasty action based only on circumstantial evidence.

The agency's Saturday statement followed the South Korean government's announcement that it could not establish a technical foundation to finger North Korea for cyber terrorism.

Hwang Chul-joong, director of the network policy bureau at the Korea Communications Commission, said at a press briefing Saturday that North Korea had not been awarded an IP (Internet protocol) address by the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers, an international agency that coordinates unique Internet addresses around the world.

"And thus North Korea can't possibly be mentioned as the origin of IP addresses of hackers," Hwang said. "And hackers never leave their traces online anyway."

Hwang later qualified his remarks by saying he didn't mean to completely rule out the possibility that North Korea is the culprit.

"North Korea doesn't have its own IP address, but it could still borrow another country's IP," Hwang said. "One can assume the North could have done that to carry out these attacks,"

According to the Internet Assigned Numbers Authority, North Korea's country domain is ".kp" and Jan Holtermann, head of the European unit of Pyongyang's Korea Computer Center, is listed as the technical contact in Berlin.

Cyber attacks subsided over the weekend and Web sites previously under siege were working normally yesterday. South Korean authorities were busy analyzing 27 "zombie" computers, or the ones that had been infected with malicious code and had been the source of the distributed denial-of-service, or DDoS, attacks.

Police will try to determine the origins of the malicious code by tracing the Web sites they had visited and files that had been downloaded.

An official with the Cyber Terror Response Center at the National Police Agency said there's no concrete evidence at this point that North Korea is responsible.

South Korean officials from intelligence, communications and investigation sectors will gather for a meeting today for the first time since the cyber attacks began last Tuesday.

According to a prosecution source, officials from the National Intelligence Service and Korea Communications Commission will be joined by their prosecution and police counterparts for a meeting at the Seoul Central District Prosecutors' Office.

They are scheduled to share their information on the cyber attacks and discuss a coordinated response to the sabotage.

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N. Korea Sends More Workers to Kaesong Despite Stalemate (Yonhap)

SEOUL – North Korea has recently dispatched 700 new workers to South Korean firms at an industrial park on its soil, businessmen said Monday, amid a stalemate in government-level negotiations over the joint venture.

The move raised questions about the intentions of North Korea, which has clouded the future of the last remaining inter-Korean venture with a demand for steep wage and rent hikes there.

Two South Korean businessmen who operate factories at the park in the North's border town of Kaesong said about 700 North Korean workers were newly dispatched to South Korean firms there last month, and more were expected this week.

"The North side is telling us it will continue to supply labor," one businessman who owns a clothing firm said, asking to remain anonymous. His factory received 50 workers, some as young as high school graduates, increasing its work force to 350.

But Unification Ministry spokesman Chun Hae-sung said the newly-arriving workers were replacements, not reinforcements, after some employees left as part of regular rotations.

"The employees were redeployed within the existing work force," Chun said in a briefing.

About 39,200 North Koreans work at the park that hosts 109 South Korean firms, according to the latest ministry data available.

Ministry officials could not say whether Pyongyang's latest action meant North Korea intends to continue to develop the joint park or was a face-saving measure preceding another hardline action, such as expelling South Korean firms who refuse to meet its demands on wage and rent hikes.

The joint park has been seen by outsiders as a rare source of hard cash for North Korea's frail economy, providing more than US$26 million in wages last year. Some analysts say, however, that Pyongyang is willing to risk economic losses to drive home its political messages.

Government-level negotiations made no progress, with the latest round held on July 2 ending without even scheduling the next meeting. North Korea demanded payment for a 50-year lease be raised to $500 million, scrapping a 2004 contract in which South Korean developers paid $16 million.

Pyongyang also refused to allow access to a detained South Korean engineer. The Hyundai Asan Corp. employee was taken custody in March on accusations of criticizing the North's political system and trying to persuade a local female employee at the joint park to defect to the South.