Korean Peninsula Today, 11 - 13 July 2009

China Preparing Its Own Sanctions on N. Korea (Chosun Ilbo)

China is preparing to impose independent sanctions on North Korea, according to a senior U.S. State Department official. The official in a press briefing held on Wednesday [8 July] said China is in the process of developing its own implementation plan to impose sanctions on North Korea.

That suggests China is willing to cooperate with the U.S. The remarks come after a series of visits to China by Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg and Ambassador Philip Goldberg, the U.S. coordinator for the implementation of UN sanctions, in the wake of the UN Security Council's adoption in June of Resolution 1874 sanctioning North Korea for its nuclear test.

North Korea's international activities are apparently being strangled. The U.S. official said since the sanctions were imposed, the names of North Korean banks are found less frequently in some countries and North Korean enterprises are changing their names. He added ASEAN member states are also cooperating, having promised to enforce Resolution 1874.

Meanwhile, U.S. Senator Sam Brownback on Wednesday introduced a bill to relist North Korea as a country sponsoring terrorism and impose new economic sanctions.

This bill envisages the U.S. Treasury Department banning transactions between American banks and foreign banks with a history of dealing with the North Korean government or senior North Korean officials. The bill also envisages the U.S. State Department returning North Korea to the U.S. terror blacklist, from which it was struck last October.

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North Korea’s Kim has 'serious' Pancreas Disorder (AFP)

TOKYO -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il is suffering from a "serious disorder" of the pancreas, a Japanese television network reported Friday, quoting a South Korean intelligence official.

The 67-year-old's condition has been the focus of much speculation since he reportedly suffered a stroke last August.

The TBS network reported that Kim has been resting and is being treated at his villa in the southeasten area of Wonsan by a team specialists.

The unidentified official told TBS Kim would be aware of the disorder which was made known to US and South Korean intelligence authorities in March.

Kim is believed to have been receiving treatment since he attended the first meeting of the country's new parliament in April, the official was quoted as saying.

In that month, he was shown in video footage by state media for the first time since August. He appeared to have lost weight in the film.

On Wednesday, a gaunt-looking Kim made a rare televised appearance as he paid homage to his late father Kim Il-Sung at a national memorial service. The film showed Kim's hair was thinning and he had developed a slight limp.

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CIA says “Kim Jong-il has 71% Probability of Death within Next Five Years” (Chosun Ilbo – Original in Korean)

“Aftereffects of Stroke and Diabetes”… Washington Times report “Can Live about One more Year.”

Chosun Ilbo has confirmed that the US CIA has recently notified the South Korean intelligence agency that Kim Jong-il’s probability of living beyond next five years is merely 29% based on analysis of his health conditions.

The government source said on the 10th that “we understand that the US CIA has passed to our intelligence agency last month detailed analysis of Kim’s health conditions.” “The CIA has concluded that probability of Kim’s death within the next five years due to aftereffects from stroke and diabetes is 71%,” the source added.

CIA reached its conclusion by conducting a comparative analysis between medical database and Kim’s observed health condition (i.e. age, medical conditions Kim is known to have, physical condition, stroke, timing of the stroke, changes in physical condition after the stroke, etc.). Specifically, the US agency arrived at its conclusion by analyzing survival probability over the next few years of the people who are similar in age with Kim Jong-il and has similar medical and physical conditions.

The CIA is known to have created an index of Kim Jong-il’s health condition by analyzing Kim’s photos; other open source reporting about Kim; his brain scan the South Korean intelligence agency acquired; testimonies of high level intelligence officials; and other intelligence materials. Although the South Korean intelligence agency has already reportedly concluded that it will be difficult for Kim Jong-il to live beyond five years, this is the first time that we confirmed specific analysis information of the US intelligence agency.

The Washington Times, on its 09 Jul edition, reported more pessimistic outlook for Kim Jong-il. "Kim Jong-il certainly hasn't been in good shape since his stroke last year, and, as time wears on, it's increasingly clear that he's not where he was before experiencing his health setback," Washington Times reported, and “that the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il continues to decline and that he may have only one more year to live.”

The Washington Times added,”Mr. Kim recently gave up Western medical treatment and is relying mostly on Asian remedies, including herbal brews and other nontraditional methods.” “Intelligence analysts had earlier concluded that he appeared to have recovered from the stroke and assessed that he remained firmly in control as the reclusive communist state's maximum leader. However, the announcement last month that Mr. Kim's third son, Kim Jong-un, would eventually take over from his father fueled speculation that Mr. Kim is in failing health,” the Washington Times also reported.

The South Korean intelligence agencies generally agree that although Kim Jong-il can generally move around, but his in not in good health; however, there are some differences of opinion among the agencies. The South Korean military intelligence agency believes Kim Jong-il is in serious health condition where as other agencies believe his condition is not as serious.

Chosun Ilbo has learned that the South Korean military intelligence agency is keeping a watchful eye on Kim Jong-il’s health especially after the release of Kim’s photographs on 14 Jun (Kim’s reported visit to the KPA 7th Division) because the military intelligence agency believes the photograph released on 14 Jun was actually the same picture released in Apr 09 after Kim’s visit to another military unit.

Lee Shang-hee, the Minister of National Defense, suggested that the South Korean military is focused on the possibility of Kim Jong-il’s worsening health during his testimony to the South Korean National Assembly on 30 Jun when he said, “Based on recent questions raised about Kim Jong-il’s photographs and his public appearances, our military is focused on surveilling the North with the possibility of Kim Jong-il’s worsening health in mind.”

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Is Jang Song-thaek Caretaker for NK's Leadership Change? (Korea Times)

Jang Song-thaek, Kim Jong-il's brother-in-law, has appeared with North Korean leader on numerous occasions this year during inspections and on-site visits, an indication of his pivotal role in the Stalinist state as a middle man in the power transfer after Kim suffered a serious stroke.

According to Yonhap News Agency, Jang, who was elevated to one of the eight members of the North's powerful National Defense Committee, accompanied the ailing North Korean leader 42 times out of a total 70 appearances in the first half of the year, the second highest following a secretary of the workers' party.

North Korea watchers speculated that Jang's frequent appearance with Kim has something to do with the 67-year old leader's dramatically declining health and to prepare for a possible sudden change of the leadership in the isolated state.

Kim's worsening health was visually obvious, seen from his appearance on state television last Wednesday to mark the 15th anniversary of the death of his father Kim Il-sung.

His hair looked thin, and he was gaunt looking and walking with a limp.

Citing a U.S. government official, The Washington Times reported that the North Korean leader was estimated to have a year to live.

The official was quoted as saying that ``Kim has essentially lost the ability to decide policy now and that is being carried out by a collective leadership made up of the Politburo, the party and the military.''

The North Korean leader reportedly appointed his 26-year old third son Jong-un as a next leader of the reclusive state.

North Korea experts here said Jang, who taught Jong-un when he took home-schooling before attending the International School of Berne in Switzerland, would play a pivotal role in paving the way for the less experienced younger Kim's succession to power.

Cheong Seong-chang, a senior fellow at the Sejong Institute, said Jang, who was close to Kim's third wife Ko Young-hee who died of breast cancer in 2004 in France, went through highs and lows in power struggle due to a remark made by Hwang Jang-yop in 2003.

Hwang, the highest-ranking defector to South Korea from the North, said in a seminar held in the National Assembly in July 2003 that Jang would probably become a leader of the communist state if a sudden change takes place.

Cheong said Hwang's analysis alerted Ko who was then the second person in North Korea because she probably felt threatened that ambitious Jang might endanger her or her son's heirship in the post Kim Jong-il era.

In July 2003, Jang disappeared from the public eye and he was suspended from duty until 2005.

Jang began accompanying Kim again from 2006, after Ko passed away.

North Korea watcher Cheong said Jang is now one of core supporters of Jong-un, dismissing some experts' speculation of power struggle in the North after any sudden change.

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U.S. Calls for Amnesty for American Journalists Jailed in Dprk (Xinhua)

WASHINGTON -- The Obama administration on Friday called on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) to grant amnesty to two female American journalists who were sentenced to 12 years in prison for "hostile actions" against the country.

"The two journalists and their families have expressed great remorse for this incident, and I think everyone is very sorry that it happened," Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said.

The DPRK's highest court has sentenced the two journalists, who were captured for allegedly crossing the border from China and committing "hostile actions" against the country, to 12 years of what it calls "reform through labor."

"What we hope for now is that these two young women would be granted amnesty through the North Korean system and be allowed to return home to their families as soon as possible," said the state secretary.

Clinton's remarks came after the two journalists, Laura Ling and Euna Lee, admitted they had violated the DPRK's law.

Earlier this week, Laura was allowed to phone her sister Lisa in California. Lisa later told reporters that her sister conveyed "a very specific message" that Euna and she had violated the DPRK' s law and they need the administration's help.

Following the sentence, the Obama administration has been trying to get the two journalists released by diplomatic channel, mainly Swedish Ambassador in Pyongyang Mats Foyer, whose country has diplomatic relations with the DPRK and offers services to U.S. citizens in the country.

"Clearly our bottom line is what it has always been, that we hope to have these two journalists released as rapidly as possible, " State Department spokesman Philip Crowley told reporters at the daily press briefing.

"There has been a legal process in North Korea. Within the North Korean system, we would hope that there would be an amnesty that would allow that release to take place," said the spokesman.