North Korea's Latest Justification for Keeping Its Nuclear Program

On Apr 22nd, Speaking at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Commander of ROK-US Combined Forces Command (CFC) and US Forces Korea (USFK), General Sharp, stated that the US will continue to offer South Korea protection under its nuclear umbrella after the 2012 transfer of wartime operational control. General Sharp stressed to the group that “the Mutual Defense Treaty will remain effective" after the transfer, and that the US and ROK militaries, although separated after the Apr 12 transfer, will continue to operate according to one military operation plan, and not two.

On May 3rd, North Korea’s Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) released a report commenting on General Sharp’s Apr 22nd speech (KCNA headline: “US and Lee Group’s Reckless War Moves Under Fire”). The report referenced a Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland’s press statement released earlier in the day.

Accusing the U.S. and the Lee Myung-bak group of frantically kicking up rackets of confrontation with the DPRK and a war of aggression against it, getting vociferous in describing the DPRK's satellite launch for peaceful purposes as a sort of "provocation, threat and violation of a UN resolution" and the like, the statement went on: The present situation goes to clearly prove that the U.S. hostile policy towards the DPRK has not changed at all and that the Lee Myung-bak group is a group of wicked traitors and warmongers keen to impose a nuclear war disaster upon the Korean nation in collusion with outside forces. 

Now that the sinister intention of the U.S. and the south Korean puppets playing the role of a shock brigade for it has been brought to bold relief, the DPRK will go straight in the direction of bolstering up its nuclear deterrent for self-defence as it had already clarified.

The U.S. and the Lee group had better stop at once their reckless moves for a war, properly understanding who their rival is.

The timing of this report seems to be in part a response to the UN Security Council’s position that it has no intension of retracting its adoption of the presidential statement or apologize for the adoption. Further, it also appearstobe a response to the US position that it will not provide any aid to North Korea unless the North stops its provocations and return to the Six-Party Talks, that the US will only conduct direct bilateral negotiations through the Six-Party forum, and that the US will review the status of North Korea to decide whether to relist it as a state sponsor of terrorism.

North Korean Endgame: Working toward Full Political and Economic Relations

A continuing leitmotif of North Korean regional foreign policy is to establish full political and economic relations with the US – including a peace treaty between the two countries.  This goal has been a centerpiece of North Korea’s foreign policy with the US since the signing of the Agreed Framework on 21 Oct 94.  North Korea cites Paragraph II of the 1994 Agreed Framework as the basis of its argument whenever it claims that the US is not living up to “agreed” commitments regarding North Korea.  Recent North Korean events such as the missile launch, withdrawal from the 6PT, and threats to extract plutonium from spent fuel rods, conduct a 2nd nuclear test and additional ICBM launches are all designed to cajole the US into bilateral negotiations, paving the way for an eventual normalization of bilateral relations.

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Hang on folks...here we go again...

So, the "good guys" were all congratulating each other on a job well done after formally announcing the adoption of the UNSC Presidential Statement condemning North Korea for launching its rocket on April 5th. The "bad guy" in this story, of course comes back with "I am going to take all my toys and go home, and you can't stop me." routine. Does this sound somewhat familiar? It should be. We've been down this road many, many times before.

So, North Korea announced today that it will pull out of the Six-Party Talks and will begin working on its nuclear program again (like it has ever really stopped -- at least we have no idea that it has ever really stopped).

This is not same lyric different tune...even the tune is the same....

Things are getting more and more interesting over here...we'll see what all shakes out at the end.

Well, due to some time constraints, I have to stop here today. More on this later, so stayed tuned.

So...the satellite is not in orbit...but the rocket worked...

It seems that the North Koreans have failed to put the satellite, Kwangmyhongsong 2, into orbit yesterday. North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and the US Northern Command (USNORTHCOM) officials said in a statement that North Korea launched a Taepodong 2 missile was launched at 10:30 p.m. on Saturday, April 04 (11:30 a.m. on Sunday, April 05 Korea Standard Time), but no object entered orbit (contradicting the North Korean claim that the satellite entered orbit at 11:29:02 a.m. on Sunday). The statement said, “Stage one of the missile fell into the Sea of Japan (East Sea). The remaining stages along with the payload itself landed in the Pacific Ocean. No object entered orbit and no debris fell on Japan…NORAD and USNORTHCOM assessed the space launch vehicle as not a threat to North America or Hawaii and took no action in response to this launch.”

Whether the North’s satellite was successfully deployed or not, one thing is for sure – North Korea now knows that it has the technology to build a working long-range ballistic missile, which should elevate the North’s worth among countries such Iran, Syria, and the like. Oh, just in case you were wondering, Iran officially denies it had any involvement with North Korea on the development of the said missile technology – who would have thunk it.

And on an interesting note, North Korea’s official Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) announced on Monday, April 6, that Kim Jong-il visited the satellite command center Sunday to observe the launch of the North Korean rocket, and celebrated the successful orbiting of a communications satellite. KCNA said, Kim Jong-il, accompanied by Secretary Jon Pyong Ho and First Vice-Department Director Ju Kyu-chang of the central committee of the North Korea's ruling Workers Party, expressed great satisfaction over the scientists and technicians who "successfully launched the satellite with their own wisdom and technology." It said that Kim also stressed "the need to bring about a new turn in conquering outer space and making peaceful use of it."

Along with its announcement, KCNA also released a photo of Kim Jong-il, which was supposedly taken at the General Satellite Command and Control Center on April 5, where Kim watched the rocket launch from beginning to the end.

Rocket Launch: North Korea's Latest Attempt at Blackmail

Today at 4:22 p.m. (Korea Standard Time), North Korea confirmed its rocket launch earlier that morning, saying that "communications satellite Kwangmyongsong 2 (Bright Star 2)" has successfully entered into orbit. North Korea stated that the rocket was launched at 11:20 a.m., and the satellite entered orbit at 11:29:02 a.m. Although North Korea stated this afternoon that the rocket was launched at 11:20 a.m., the South Korea Presidential Office announced this morning at 11:46 a.m. that the rocket was launched at 11:30:15 a.m. during a post-launch press briefing. As of now, the South Korean Yonhap News Agency says the "neighboring countries monitoring the launch have "no evidence yet" to prove North Korea's claim, according to a senior Seoul official said on condition of anonymity."

At 4:22 p.m., North Korea's state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) released a report that stated, "Scientists and technicians of the DPRK have succeeded in putting satellite Kwangmyongsong 2, an experimental communications satellite, into orbit by means of carrier rocket Unha 2 (Milky Way 2) under the state long-term plan for the development of outer space." The KCNA report claimed the three-stage rocket Unha 2 blasted off from a launch pad located in Musadan-ri, North North Hamgyeong Province, (on the country's northeast coast) at 11:20 a.m. and put the satellite safely into orbit 2 seconds past 11:29 a.m. The report also said that the Kwangmyongsong 2 satellite is now following an "elliptic orbit, at the angle of inclination of 40.6 degrees at 490 km perigee and 1 426 km apogee," adding its cycle is 104 minutes and 12 seconds. The KCNA said, "the satellite is going round on its routine orbit. It is sending to the earth the melodies of the immortal revolutionary paeans Song of General Kim Il-sung and Song of General Kim Jong-il and measured information at 470 MHz. By the use of the satellite the relay communications is now underway by UHF frequency band." It added, "the carrier rocket and the satellite developed through our indigenous wisdom and technology are the shining result of efforts to develop the nation's space science and technology on a higher level." The KCNA report also said today's space launch will boost the country's campaign to build a strong nation by 2012 as it "seeks to become a great, prosperous and powerful nation" by that year -- 100th anniversary of the birth of the late Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il's father. It added, "this is powerfully encouraging the Korean people all out in the general advance."

According to a Yonhap report, a South Korean government official stated, "the South Korean government assumes the North Korean rocket was a space vehicle, not a missile, but it is not yet known whether it was carrying a satellite and whether it entered orbit as North Korea claims." He also said, "it has not been confirmed yet whether the North Korean report is true or not."

Today's launch itself has been in development since February 3, when the South Korean Yonhap news reported that North Korea is preparing to test fire its long-range missile. North Korea's position has been that it is launching an experimental communications satellite. Japan, South Korea, and the United States have been insisting that the North Koreans are using the rocket launch as a cover for a long-range ballistic missile test. World Leaders (with the exception of the Chinese -- China said "it has taken notice of North Korea's rocket launch," and it urged all relevant parties to maintain "cool-headedness and restraint."urges all parties to maintain restraint over the matter." -- and the Russians) have criticized the launch as being provocative and in violation of the UNSC Resolution 1718, which expressly prohibits North Korea from conducting ballistic missile-related activities of any kind.

Looking back, we can link today's event to January 13, 2009, when a spokesman for the North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement that the US should first normalize relations with North Korea as a precondition for its denuclearization and that it will hold onto its nuclear weapons as long as the US backs South Korea with its own atomic arsenal. The statement also demanded that if “the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is the issue to be settled only when the DPRK shows nuclear weapons,” then North Korea must be able to also verify the presence of nuclear weapons in South Korea as well and that the same rule should be applied to US troops stationed in South Korea. I have to believe that today's event was planned well before January 13, but I really think this was the first glimpse of North Korea's well planned campaign to conduct today's launch. I wrote about the likelihood of North Korean ballistic missile test in a piece I wrote and posted on my blog earlier this year.

Really, to me, when I look at today's event, the core of the issue is not whether North Korea launched a satellite or tested a ballistic missile. The core of the issue is that North Korea is behaving this way to blackmail the United States and the international community so that it can benefit from it.

North Korea’s Missile Launch: The Risks of Overreaction

In the latest International Crisis Group's (ICG) Asia Briefing, published 31 Mar, the report states that a tough response to North Korea’s rocket launch would likely result in the demise of the talks to end its nuclear program and could risk a potentially devastating war, damaging to South Korea, Japan and the world economy.

North Korea’s Missile Launch: The Risks of Overreaction, the latest report from the International Crisis Group, examines North Korea’s provocation and the way it leaves Japan, South Korea and the U.S. few good options. The prospective launch fits a pattern of North Korean attention-seeking when faced with stresses at home, political changes abroad or failure to get what it wants in negotiations.

“Even if the missile launch test is successful, it would only slightly increase security risks, while an overblown response would likely jeopardise the Six-Party Talks to end North Korea’s nuclear program”, says Gareth Evans, Crisis Group’s President. “What is needed is a calm, coordinated response from the key actors to raise pressure on Pyongyang to return to the talks rather than a divided reaction that only fulfils the North’s desire to widen splits among its neighbors.”

Security Council Resolution 1695 demands that North Korea not launch any missile, but Pyongyang argues – with support from some Security Council members – that this does not extend to a satellite rocket launch permitted under the Outer Space Treaty, and the legal issues are inconclusive.

An overreaction to the test that prompts the North to abandon the Six-Party Talks would strengthen hardliners in Pyongyang. The other five members of the Six-Party Talks should agree to a moderate set of measures that maintains their unity in the face of North Korea’s provocation. They could do this by issuing a joint statement condemning the launch as provocative in the current tense climate, reaffirming Security Council Resolutions 1695 and 1718, and demanding that North Korea return to the Six-Party Talks.

South Korea, the United States and Japan should agree on an overall package deal in exchange for major steps forward in nuclear and missile disarmament. Such a deal should be presented by a high-level U.S. envoy sent to meet Kim Jong-Il in Pyongyang, and then be endorsed in the six-party process.

“If the launch does take place, the best outcome for the international community is simply for it to fail, as an earlier test did”, says Daniel Pinkston, Crisis Group’s North East Asia Deputy Project Director. “If the rocket is shot down by either Japan or the U.S., the North Koreans would see this as a sign of Tokyo and Washington’s implacable hostility and almost certainly withdraw from the Six-Party Talks.”

If you are asking if I agree with the ICG's assessment of the situation, I would have to say that I do. No matter how you slice it, there just aren't that many good outcomes coming out of this launch.