Below thread from our friends at KGS Nightwatch.
South Korean National Defense Minister Kim Tae Young said today that South Korea will discuss redeploying U.S. nuclear weapons on its soil with the United States at the Extended Deterrence Policy Committee meeting in December. The context of the statement was the news that North Korea has an industrial scale and operational uranium enrichment plant of 2,000 centrifuges.
The United States does not have immediate plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea, a Pentagon spokesman said on 22 November. The United States is consulting international partners to decide how to proceed in light of a report by a US nuclear scientist describing a small, industrial-scale uranium enrichment plant he was shown during a visit to North Korea in November, the spokesman said.
Comment: This is saber rattling. Meanwhile officials in South Korea and the US declared the weekend report about the new North Korean nuclear facilities does not create a crisis because the US and South Korea knew it all along. Japan, a bit more realistically, declared the facility an intolerable threat to security; apparently Japanese officials did not know about this all along.
There is no crisis yet. Most countries that have plutonium processes for making fissile material also have uranium enrichment processes. The original reactor at Yongbyon produced plutonium, but the North has been attempting to build a uranium enrichment cascade, with Pakistani help at one time, for over a decade. The news is that it succeeded pretty much in plain view, according to the US scientists.
There have been two schools of analytical thought about the North's weapons programs. One school holds that the weapons programs may be negotiable if the right package of incentives and sanctions may be found. The other school is that North Korea will never negotiate away its nuclear weapons because it has no other leverage over the US. To date, the hard line school is far ahead of the negotiators. Japan is more aligned with the hard line school of thought and that may be as worrisome as North Korea's antics.
Showing posts with label US. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Friday, October 29, 2010
Regional Update for 28 October
China/Taiwan-US: Taiwan will ask the United States to postpone the sale of two advanced weapons systems to save money, a senior legislator with ties to the military said on 28 October, Reuters reported.
Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: A decision to not spend money usually and obviously means that money will be saved. However, the timing of the announcement is propitious because it neutralizes temporarily an issue that might have blemished the US President's visit to India late next week. Taiwan will want something in return.
North Korea-Cuba: Chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army Vice Marshal Ri Yong Ho, left Pyongyang on 28 October to lead a delegation to Cuba, The Associated Press reported.
Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: Reports of a close relationship between North Korea and Cuba extend for decades in the past. They include allegations of large North Korean troop deployments to Cuba.
Nothing significant has ever been proven. Still the visits have continued. Cuba and North Korea share the distinction with Vietnam and Laos of being the last surviving Marxist-Leninist states.
China-Pakistan: Chinese Major General Yang Hui, director general of the Intelligence Directorate, visited Chief of Army Staff General Kayani at General Headquarters on 28 October, Associated Press of Pakistan reported. The two discussed matters of professional interest, according to Pakistan's Inter Services Public Relations.
Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: A visit by a Chinese intelligence general to Pakistan usually signifies a problem. The usual problem is that Pakistan is harboring, aiding, training and abetting anti-Han Chinese Islamic terrorists in the 42 terrorist camps that Pakistani intelligence sustains in Pakistani Kashmir.
Chinese intelligence officials seldom visit unless there is a problem. The Chinese do not seem concerned that Pakistani-trained terrorists kill Indians or Americans, but they do object to Pakistan providing or tolerating training of Xinjiang Uighurs who want to kill Han Chinese.
Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: A decision to not spend money usually and obviously means that money will be saved. However, the timing of the announcement is propitious because it neutralizes temporarily an issue that might have blemished the US President's visit to India late next week. Taiwan will want something in return.
North Korea-Cuba: Chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army Vice Marshal Ri Yong Ho, left Pyongyang on 28 October to lead a delegation to Cuba, The Associated Press reported.
Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: Reports of a close relationship between North Korea and Cuba extend for decades in the past. They include allegations of large North Korean troop deployments to Cuba.
Nothing significant has ever been proven. Still the visits have continued. Cuba and North Korea share the distinction with Vietnam and Laos of being the last surviving Marxist-Leninist states.
China-Pakistan: Chinese Major General Yang Hui, director general of the Intelligence Directorate, visited Chief of Army Staff General Kayani at General Headquarters on 28 October, Associated Press of Pakistan reported. The two discussed matters of professional interest, according to Pakistan's Inter Services Public Relations.
Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: A visit by a Chinese intelligence general to Pakistan usually signifies a problem. The usual problem is that Pakistan is harboring, aiding, training and abetting anti-Han Chinese Islamic terrorists in the 42 terrorist camps that Pakistani intelligence sustains in Pakistani Kashmir.
Chinese intelligence officials seldom visit unless there is a problem. The Chinese do not seem concerned that Pakistani-trained terrorists kill Indians or Americans, but they do object to Pakistan providing or tolerating training of Xinjiang Uighurs who want to kill Han Chinese.
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Regional Update for 25 October
Japan-China: The Japanese government formally protested to the Chinese government on 25 October the presence of Chinese patrol boats near the Senkaku Islands. Japanese authorities detected two Chinese patrol boats late Sunday in Japan's "contiguous zone" but did not cross into Japanese territorial waters, Kyodo reported, citing Japan's coast guard.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku said in the protest message that seeing Chinese patrol boats made his government feel "uncomfortable. He also said that Japan will step up its monitoring activities around the Islands, according to Kyodo.
China's foreign ministry claimed that its boats' patrols are both legal and based on need.
Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: Mainstream international press did not report the Chinese patrol boat activity nor at least three more anti-Japanese protests and demonstrations over the weekend. The confrontation over the Senkakus continues.
South Korea-US: For the record. A Pentagon spokesman today rejected claims by South Korean media that a planned U.S.-South Korea naval exercise had been postponed due to Chinese protests, Reuters reported. The spokesman told reporters that authorities in Washington and in Seoul were unable to reach a scheduling agreement, adding the exercises were intended to send a message to North Korea and should not be China's concern.
Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: The comment by the spokesman misses the point that the North has moved closer to China during the succession period than at any time since the government of Deng Xiaoping in the early 1980s. The US is much less significant than it was a year ago in North Korea's strategic calculations. Since China agreed to assume overwatch responsibility for the Kim regime this year, the Allies have succeeded in sending no significant "messages" to North Korea.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku said in the protest message that seeing Chinese patrol boats made his government feel "uncomfortable. He also said that Japan will step up its monitoring activities around the Islands, according to Kyodo.
China's foreign ministry claimed that its boats' patrols are both legal and based on need.
Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: Mainstream international press did not report the Chinese patrol boat activity nor at least three more anti-Japanese protests and demonstrations over the weekend. The confrontation over the Senkakus continues.
South Korea-US: For the record. A Pentagon spokesman today rejected claims by South Korean media that a planned U.S.-South Korea naval exercise had been postponed due to Chinese protests, Reuters reported. The spokesman told reporters that authorities in Washington and in Seoul were unable to reach a scheduling agreement, adding the exercises were intended to send a message to North Korea and should not be China's concern.
Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: The comment by the spokesman misses the point that the North has moved closer to China during the succession period than at any time since the government of Deng Xiaoping in the early 1980s. The US is much less significant than it was a year ago in North Korea's strategic calculations. Since China agreed to assume overwatch responsibility for the Kim regime this year, the Allies have succeeded in sending no significant "messages" to North Korea.
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Regional Update for October 22
Following update from our friends at KGS NightWatch
South Korea-North Korea: A report to the UN Secretary General indicated North Korea is in danger of another food crisis this winter because of poor harvests. Nevertheless, a South Korean Unification Ministry spokesman reaffirmed the Lee government policy of not providing large scale food aid to North Korea, regardless of need unless and until the political atmosphere improves.
The government in Seoul will continue to approve private humanitarian relief, such a recent shipment of 5,000 tons of rice and other supplies for flood victims.
Comment from KGS NightWatch: The South still wants the North to apologize for the sinking of its patrol ship last March. Prior to 2008 and the South's election of the hard line Lee administration, the South annually provided 400,000 tons of rice and 300,000 tons of fertilizer to the North.
North Korea-China: For the record. Vice Chairman of China's Central Military Commission Gua Boxiong will lead a delegation of senior Chinese military officers to North Korea on 23 October, according to the Ministry of National Defense, Xinhua reported on 22 October. The delegation will attend activities to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the entry of the Chinese People's Volunteers into the Korean front and meet with the North's military leaders to discuss issues of mutual concern, said Chinese spokesman Geng Yansheng.
China: Update. Tibetan language demonstrations spread in northwestern China, as students in Tsolho and Golog prefectures demanded the right to study in their language, according to Free Tibet and Agence France-Presse. Some 2,000 students marched to the local government building in Chabcha, chanting demands for Tibetan language freedoms. Police and teachers turned them away. The Dawu police restricted movement of local residents following student protests in the area.
Comment from KGS NightWatch: This is a minor outbreak of unrest but it continues to showcase the Han Chinese policy of forced assimilation of minorities.
US-China-India: President Obama will visit India between 6 and 9 November. The forthcoming trip has generated significant unease in China about US strategy in Asia.
Since Thursday, a half dozen or more Chinese newspapers and strategists have complained about the US relationship with India. A National Defense University official wrote, "India's goals of becoming a global power cannot be realized by just following the US. This writer accused the US of "building a strategic fence" with Japan and South Korea as the backbone and a carapace of India, Vietnam and other nations having territorial disputes with China.
This official wrote, "India's politicians should be aware that as the two weaker sides of a triangular relationship, it is very important for India and China to maintain stability to prevent the US from profiting from their disputes….The US fence around China is weak but could become an iron wall if China makes strategic mistakes."
Earlier, a Chinese air force colonel wrote about a crescent ring encircling China from Japan to Afghanistan. A professor at Beijing University's School of International Studies said, "If you look around Asia and see what the US is doing, it is not surprising and difficult to understand America's needs in South Asia."
A Fudan University analyst wrote in the China Daily that India and China are made for each other but must guard against western elements. "Some Indian media raised a hue and cry over so-called 'border invasion' by China last year and the recent suspension of bilateral military exchanges,'' said the commentary."Some Western countries and media are trying to use this to drive a wedge between the two neighbors."
Comment from KGS NightWatch: These two ancient cultures have had no significant interaction until modern times. But for colonial era land disputes, they are not natural enemies. However, their aspirations for world power stature have converted them into at least strategic competitors, sometime rivals and potential enemies.
China's rise to great power stature impedes India's dominance in South Asia. China has developed proxies or allies on every Indian border, which undercuts the credibility of its complaints about encirclement. China has spurred India to look to its strategic space in South Asia and to increase security cooperation with East Asia powers with which it has never had significant interaction … before the rise of China.
It is curious that Chinese international affairs commentators evince so much insecurity, for a country that considers itself the equal in many areas of the United States and has become so aggressive in asserting its right to be the leader of Asia.
Comments from the Author of the Blog: For a country that speaks of peace so often, everything from its official government positions to academic papers its scholars publish, it sure seems that its government, its military, and a significant portion of its academia look upon the world through the lens of realism - the theory where peace could only be achieved by either becoming the dominant power or by balancing against the dominant power...the things that make you go hmmm......
India-Pakistan: Indian Army Chief of the Army Staff General V K Singh said on 22 October that interceptions and border monitoring reports have indicated that there are 500 to 600 militants on the Pakistani side of the Line of Control preparing to infiltrate India's state of Jammu and Kashmir, The Times of India reported.
Intelligence inpurts indicate the leadership of Hizbul Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami and Jaish-e-Mohammed have conducted reconnaissance along the Line of Control in advance of infiltration operations. General Singh reported there are teams of eight to nine who are trying to cross the border every day.
Singh also said the anti-India terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan is intact and 42 camps are being run, including newly created camps in Pakistani Kashmir. Infiltration has risen in late summer, as it seasonally does. The Indian Army recorded 10 infiltration incidents in June, six in July and 33 in August.
General Singh judged that about 20-25 infiltration attempts succeeded, which is indicated by the fact that 12 to 15 terrorists were killed in the last 15-20 days. "This shows people have come from somewhere," he said. He concluded that Pakistan perceives Kashmir as an "unfinished agenda.
Comment from KGS NightWatch: Infiltration from Pakistan into Indian Kashmir always increases before winter. The number of Kashmiri militant camps is as high as it has been in the past ten years. This means the progress in reducing the number of camps under Musharraf has been reversed. The camps and the infiltration infrastructure into Kashmir cannot exist without official Pakistani government support.
Even allowing for an anti-Pakistani bias, General Singh's account of conditions along the Line of Control is consistent with autumn conditions in past years. His statements are a reminder that Pakistan remains a state sponsor of terror and continues to use terror as an instrument of state policy against India.
South Korea-North Korea: A report to the UN Secretary General indicated North Korea is in danger of another food crisis this winter because of poor harvests. Nevertheless, a South Korean Unification Ministry spokesman reaffirmed the Lee government policy of not providing large scale food aid to North Korea, regardless of need unless and until the political atmosphere improves.
The government in Seoul will continue to approve private humanitarian relief, such a recent shipment of 5,000 tons of rice and other supplies for flood victims.
Comment from KGS NightWatch: The South still wants the North to apologize for the sinking of its patrol ship last March. Prior to 2008 and the South's election of the hard line Lee administration, the South annually provided 400,000 tons of rice and 300,000 tons of fertilizer to the North.
North Korea-China: For the record. Vice Chairman of China's Central Military Commission Gua Boxiong will lead a delegation of senior Chinese military officers to North Korea on 23 October, according to the Ministry of National Defense, Xinhua reported on 22 October. The delegation will attend activities to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the entry of the Chinese People's Volunteers into the Korean front and meet with the North's military leaders to discuss issues of mutual concern, said Chinese spokesman Geng Yansheng.
China: Update. Tibetan language demonstrations spread in northwestern China, as students in Tsolho and Golog prefectures demanded the right to study in their language, according to Free Tibet and Agence France-Presse. Some 2,000 students marched to the local government building in Chabcha, chanting demands for Tibetan language freedoms. Police and teachers turned them away. The Dawu police restricted movement of local residents following student protests in the area.
Comment from KGS NightWatch: This is a minor outbreak of unrest but it continues to showcase the Han Chinese policy of forced assimilation of minorities.
US-China-India: President Obama will visit India between 6 and 9 November. The forthcoming trip has generated significant unease in China about US strategy in Asia.
Since Thursday, a half dozen or more Chinese newspapers and strategists have complained about the US relationship with India. A National Defense University official wrote, "India's goals of becoming a global power cannot be realized by just following the US. This writer accused the US of "building a strategic fence" with Japan and South Korea as the backbone and a carapace of India, Vietnam and other nations having territorial disputes with China.
This official wrote, "India's politicians should be aware that as the two weaker sides of a triangular relationship, it is very important for India and China to maintain stability to prevent the US from profiting from their disputes….The US fence around China is weak but could become an iron wall if China makes strategic mistakes."
Earlier, a Chinese air force colonel wrote about a crescent ring encircling China from Japan to Afghanistan. A professor at Beijing University's School of International Studies said, "If you look around Asia and see what the US is doing, it is not surprising and difficult to understand America's needs in South Asia."
A Fudan University analyst wrote in the China Daily that India and China are made for each other but must guard against western elements. "Some Indian media raised a hue and cry over so-called 'border invasion' by China last year and the recent suspension of bilateral military exchanges,'' said the commentary."Some Western countries and media are trying to use this to drive a wedge between the two neighbors."
Comment from KGS NightWatch: These two ancient cultures have had no significant interaction until modern times. But for colonial era land disputes, they are not natural enemies. However, their aspirations for world power stature have converted them into at least strategic competitors, sometime rivals and potential enemies.
China's rise to great power stature impedes India's dominance in South Asia. China has developed proxies or allies on every Indian border, which undercuts the credibility of its complaints about encirclement. China has spurred India to look to its strategic space in South Asia and to increase security cooperation with East Asia powers with which it has never had significant interaction … before the rise of China.
It is curious that Chinese international affairs commentators evince so much insecurity, for a country that considers itself the equal in many areas of the United States and has become so aggressive in asserting its right to be the leader of Asia.
Comments from the Author of the Blog: For a country that speaks of peace so often, everything from its official government positions to academic papers its scholars publish, it sure seems that its government, its military, and a significant portion of its academia look upon the world through the lens of realism - the theory where peace could only be achieved by either becoming the dominant power or by balancing against the dominant power...the things that make you go hmmm......
India-Pakistan: Indian Army Chief of the Army Staff General V K Singh said on 22 October that interceptions and border monitoring reports have indicated that there are 500 to 600 militants on the Pakistani side of the Line of Control preparing to infiltrate India's state of Jammu and Kashmir, The Times of India reported.
Intelligence inpurts indicate the leadership of Hizbul Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami and Jaish-e-Mohammed have conducted reconnaissance along the Line of Control in advance of infiltration operations. General Singh reported there are teams of eight to nine who are trying to cross the border every day.
Singh also said the anti-India terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan is intact and 42 camps are being run, including newly created camps in Pakistani Kashmir. Infiltration has risen in late summer, as it seasonally does. The Indian Army recorded 10 infiltration incidents in June, six in July and 33 in August.
General Singh judged that about 20-25 infiltration attempts succeeded, which is indicated by the fact that 12 to 15 terrorists were killed in the last 15-20 days. "This shows people have come from somewhere," he said. He concluded that Pakistan perceives Kashmir as an "unfinished agenda.
Comment from KGS NightWatch: Infiltration from Pakistan into Indian Kashmir always increases before winter. The number of Kashmiri militant camps is as high as it has been in the past ten years. This means the progress in reducing the number of camps under Musharraf has been reversed. The camps and the infiltration infrastructure into Kashmir cannot exist without official Pakistani government support.
Even allowing for an anti-Pakistani bias, General Singh's account of conditions along the Line of Control is consistent with autumn conditions in past years. His statements are a reminder that Pakistan remains a state sponsor of terror and continues to use terror as an instrument of state policy against India.
Friday, September 10, 2010
Regional Update for September 10
Japan-China: The captain of a Chinese fishing boat was taken to a Japanese court on Ishigaki Island in Okinawa Prefecture on 10 September. Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi demanded the "immediate and unconditional" release of the captain and other crewmembers, according to news relays.
Yang summoned Japanese Ambassador to China Uichiro Niwa to lodge a third protest with Tokyo over what the Chinese Foreign Ministry described as an "illegal detention." Yang told Niwa that Beijing is determined to defend Chinese sovereignty of the Diaoyu Islands, where the ramming incident occurred, and demanded the unconditional release of the boat and crew, according to the ministry
Japan asserts the incident occurred in Japanese territorial waters and that Japan is handling the case in line with domestic law, Niwa told the Chinese. On 10 September a Japanese court ruled that prosecutors can detain the captain of the Chinese fishing boat for 10 days.
In reaction to and protest of the court ruling, the Chinese announced a postponement of a second round of negotiation over disputed island territories. Lest the Japanese miss the point, the Chinese statement described the postponement as a "grave protest."
Comments from KGS NightWatch: Japan and South Korea require little encouragement in standing up to China on territorial or other disputes. In part, this is because they see China's export dependent modern sector as a competitor with their own export-driven economies. Neither Japan nor South Korea is inclined to accommodate China or accept it as a regional leader.
An epochal strategic shift continues to evolve in which Asian States are not only taking responsibility for the security of Asia, they are shaping the nature of the strategic relationships. Japan and South Korea will not roll over for China the way North Korea is doing,with or without US assistance.
South Korea-US: A US Defense Department spokesman announced today, 10 September, that the aircraft carrier USS George Washington will participate with South Korea in war games in international waters of the Yellow Sea off the Korean Peninsula. The US spokesman said the deployment is not aimed at challenging China, but is a warning to North Korea.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: After much hemming and hawing, the US appears to have made a decision in favor of strategic dominance and in favor of US Allies in Asia. Apparently thanks for the extra time to think straight goes to the intervention of a typhoon. The typhoon delayed Allied anti-submarine warfare training in the Yellow Sea and gave the US leadership time to make a decision in favor of American allies and interests.
China-Taiwan: Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) will conduct a maritime rescue drill the week of 13 September with China's Maritime Search and Rescue Center, Taiwanese Central News Agency reported 10 September. The drill will be held in waters off southeastern China, between Taiwan's Kinmen Island and Xiamen, China.
Taiwan's CGA will send nine patrol boats, including a 500-ton patrol vessel, and helicopters to Kinmen. All participating ships and rescue teams will carry flags that symbolize the joint drill, CGA officials said, in an attempt to avoid territorial disputes.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: The drill will be the first time the two coastal patrol agencies will have held joint exercises.
Burma (Myanmar)-China: The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has begun construction of China-Myanmar oil and natural gas pipelines, according to Chinese media. The announcement coincided with a ground-breaking ceremony for a 200,000 barrel-per-day oil refinery in Anning city, Yunnan Province, China.
According to the CNPC statement, the company wants to complete the China section of the pipelines, as well as the refinery, by 2013. The oil pipeline, which will have a capacity of 440,000 barrels per day, will wind 771 kilometers (479 miles) through Myanmar, then stretch 1,631 kilometers though China before ending in Chongqing.
The natural gas pipeline will have a 12 billion cubic meter capacity, and will span 793 kilometers in Myanmar and 1,727 kilometers in China before ending in Guangxi region. The company did not disclose whether or when all three projects would receive final approval from China's National Development and Reform Commission, the body in charge of economic planning and pricing.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: The significance of this information plus other recent reports about China building a railroad through Burma is that they reinforce the assessment that Chinese leaders see Burma as a gateway for channeling natural resources to China.
This symbolizes the next step in China's economic imperialism by creating a network of vertical and horizontal monopolies on a global scale that gather and ship back to China the resources from concessions in Third World countries that the Chinese already have secured.
By using Chinese-made Burmese ports and infrastructure, natural resources from Africa and the Middle East can reach hubs in southern China and avoid the hazards of transiting the Straits of Malacca and Singapore and the South China Sea.
Yang summoned Japanese Ambassador to China Uichiro Niwa to lodge a third protest with Tokyo over what the Chinese Foreign Ministry described as an "illegal detention." Yang told Niwa that Beijing is determined to defend Chinese sovereignty of the Diaoyu Islands, where the ramming incident occurred, and demanded the unconditional release of the boat and crew, according to the ministry
Japan asserts the incident occurred in Japanese territorial waters and that Japan is handling the case in line with domestic law, Niwa told the Chinese. On 10 September a Japanese court ruled that prosecutors can detain the captain of the Chinese fishing boat for 10 days.
In reaction to and protest of the court ruling, the Chinese announced a postponement of a second round of negotiation over disputed island territories. Lest the Japanese miss the point, the Chinese statement described the postponement as a "grave protest."
Comments from KGS NightWatch: Japan and South Korea require little encouragement in standing up to China on territorial or other disputes. In part, this is because they see China's export dependent modern sector as a competitor with their own export-driven economies. Neither Japan nor South Korea is inclined to accommodate China or accept it as a regional leader.
An epochal strategic shift continues to evolve in which Asian States are not only taking responsibility for the security of Asia, they are shaping the nature of the strategic relationships. Japan and South Korea will not roll over for China the way North Korea is doing,with or without US assistance.
South Korea-US: A US Defense Department spokesman announced today, 10 September, that the aircraft carrier USS George Washington will participate with South Korea in war games in international waters of the Yellow Sea off the Korean Peninsula. The US spokesman said the deployment is not aimed at challenging China, but is a warning to North Korea.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: After much hemming and hawing, the US appears to have made a decision in favor of strategic dominance and in favor of US Allies in Asia. Apparently thanks for the extra time to think straight goes to the intervention of a typhoon. The typhoon delayed Allied anti-submarine warfare training in the Yellow Sea and gave the US leadership time to make a decision in favor of American allies and interests.
China-Taiwan: Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) will conduct a maritime rescue drill the week of 13 September with China's Maritime Search and Rescue Center, Taiwanese Central News Agency reported 10 September. The drill will be held in waters off southeastern China, between Taiwan's Kinmen Island and Xiamen, China.
Taiwan's CGA will send nine patrol boats, including a 500-ton patrol vessel, and helicopters to Kinmen. All participating ships and rescue teams will carry flags that symbolize the joint drill, CGA officials said, in an attempt to avoid territorial disputes.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: The drill will be the first time the two coastal patrol agencies will have held joint exercises.
Burma (Myanmar)-China: The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has begun construction of China-Myanmar oil and natural gas pipelines, according to Chinese media. The announcement coincided with a ground-breaking ceremony for a 200,000 barrel-per-day oil refinery in Anning city, Yunnan Province, China.
According to the CNPC statement, the company wants to complete the China section of the pipelines, as well as the refinery, by 2013. The oil pipeline, which will have a capacity of 440,000 barrels per day, will wind 771 kilometers (479 miles) through Myanmar, then stretch 1,631 kilometers though China before ending in Chongqing.
The natural gas pipeline will have a 12 billion cubic meter capacity, and will span 793 kilometers in Myanmar and 1,727 kilometers in China before ending in Guangxi region. The company did not disclose whether or when all three projects would receive final approval from China's National Development and Reform Commission, the body in charge of economic planning and pricing.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: The significance of this information plus other recent reports about China building a railroad through Burma is that they reinforce the assessment that Chinese leaders see Burma as a gateway for channeling natural resources to China.
This symbolizes the next step in China's economic imperialism by creating a network of vertical and horizontal monopolies on a global scale that gather and ship back to China the resources from concessions in Third World countries that the Chinese already have secured.
By using Chinese-made Burmese ports and infrastructure, natural resources from Africa and the Middle East can reach hubs in southern China and avoid the hazards of transiting the Straits of Malacca and Singapore and the South China Sea.
Friday, September 3, 2010
Regional Update for September 3
South Korea-US: Update. US Forces Korea today confirmed that South Korea and the United States will hold anti-submarine warfare exercises from 5 to 9 September in the Yellow Sea. The statement said the exercises will send a message of deterrence to North Korea, while improving Allied anti-submarine warfare capabilities. Ten ships will participate including the two U.S. guided-missile destroyers, USS Curtis Wilbur and USS Fitzgerald, and a fast-attack U.S. submarine.
South Korea's Joint Staff announced the South will contribute four destroyers, a submarine, high-speed frigates and P-3C aircraft to practice techniques to cope with infiltration by enemy submarines.
Comment: As of 3 September, neither China nor North Korea has commented in response.
India- South Korea: In Seoul, today, Indian Defence Minister Antony and South Korean National Defense Minister Kim approved two memoranda of understanding that will strengthen force cooperation and defense industrial collaboration under the India-South Korea Defence Agreement.
The first memorandum of understanding (MoU) covers sharing of military expertise; exchanges of visits by military personnel and experts in defense services; education and training, and conduct of military exercises, as well as joint visits by ships and aircraft. It also includes cooperation in humanitarian assistance and international peacekeeping.
The second MoU is far reaching, aimed at identifying futuristic defense technology research and development for co-development and co-production of defense products.
Defence Minister Antony remarked that "We live in a troubled neighborhood. Some call it a fragile region. We have to maintain balance and restraint even in the face of grave challenges to our security."
Comment from KGS NightWatch: This was a high powered delegation that included senior officers from the armed services and from the defense research establishment. The Indians came to create an architecture for doing business and their timing could not have been better.
Serendipitously, the Indian delegation is in Seoul coincident with a powerful Chinese military region commander's visit to Pyongyang as a follow-up to Kim Jong-il's secretive China visit. The Indian visit also almost coincides with the start of the US-South Korean naval exercises in the Yellow Sea.
India-China: India conveyed its concerns to China on 3 September about an increase in the Chinese troop presence and activities in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Embassy officials said Indian Ambassador to China S. Jaishankar met China's Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Zhang Zhijun in Beijing to discuss India's concerns.
India news papers quoted government sources that 11,000 Chinese have been detected in the Pakistan-controlled section of western Kashmir
In response to the Indian demarche, the Chinese said the soldiers were assisting with flood relief without further explanation.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: The Indian press indicates China stonewalled India on this and several other issues, especially those related to Kashmir. While not confirmed, the size of the Chinese contingent equals that of an infantry division. The location could be east of Islamabad … if confirmed. Earlier press reports indicated the Chinese troops were providing security for railroad construction, but the Chinese did not confirm those reports.
China appears to be dropping the nuances in its policy actions of the past ten years as to disputed regions of Asia. In doing so, it is siding openly and unequivocally with longstanding allies. This explains China's open embrace of Kim Jong-il, which matches its equally open tilt to Pakistan on the issue of Kashmir.
China is asserting itself as the Asian hegemon from Northeast Asia, through Southeast Asia to Southwest Asia. This is a strategic challenge to the interests of the US, its allies and friends.
Pakistan: Pakistani Taliban again claimed responsibility for killing at least 43 people and injuring 78 others in a suicide blast at a Shiite procession in Quetta, Pakistan, according to police chief Ghulam Shabir Sheikh. The occasion of the march is al Quds Day, which is an annual protest in solidarity with the Palestinians and to condemn Israel. Al Quds is the Muslim name for the city Jerusalem.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: Pakistani Sunni terrorists evidently will not tolerate Pakistani Shiites protesting in support of Sunni causes, namely, the Palestinians. The plight of the Palestinians has no relevance to the goals of the Pakistani Taliban which include creation of a Pakistani Islamic emirate based in Islamabad.
South Korea's Joint Staff announced the South will contribute four destroyers, a submarine, high-speed frigates and P-3C aircraft to practice techniques to cope with infiltration by enemy submarines.
Comment: As of 3 September, neither China nor North Korea has commented in response.
India- South Korea: In Seoul, today, Indian Defence Minister Antony and South Korean National Defense Minister Kim approved two memoranda of understanding that will strengthen force cooperation and defense industrial collaboration under the India-South Korea Defence Agreement.
The first memorandum of understanding (MoU) covers sharing of military expertise; exchanges of visits by military personnel and experts in defense services; education and training, and conduct of military exercises, as well as joint visits by ships and aircraft. It also includes cooperation in humanitarian assistance and international peacekeeping.
The second MoU is far reaching, aimed at identifying futuristic defense technology research and development for co-development and co-production of defense products.
Defence Minister Antony remarked that "We live in a troubled neighborhood. Some call it a fragile region. We have to maintain balance and restraint even in the face of grave challenges to our security."
Comment from KGS NightWatch: This was a high powered delegation that included senior officers from the armed services and from the defense research establishment. The Indians came to create an architecture for doing business and their timing could not have been better.
Serendipitously, the Indian delegation is in Seoul coincident with a powerful Chinese military region commander's visit to Pyongyang as a follow-up to Kim Jong-il's secretive China visit. The Indian visit also almost coincides with the start of the US-South Korean naval exercises in the Yellow Sea.
India-China: India conveyed its concerns to China on 3 September about an increase in the Chinese troop presence and activities in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Embassy officials said Indian Ambassador to China S. Jaishankar met China's Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Zhang Zhijun in Beijing to discuss India's concerns.
India news papers quoted government sources that 11,000 Chinese have been detected in the Pakistan-controlled section of western Kashmir
In response to the Indian demarche, the Chinese said the soldiers were assisting with flood relief without further explanation.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: The Indian press indicates China stonewalled India on this and several other issues, especially those related to Kashmir. While not confirmed, the size of the Chinese contingent equals that of an infantry division. The location could be east of Islamabad … if confirmed. Earlier press reports indicated the Chinese troops were providing security for railroad construction, but the Chinese did not confirm those reports.
China appears to be dropping the nuances in its policy actions of the past ten years as to disputed regions of Asia. In doing so, it is siding openly and unequivocally with longstanding allies. This explains China's open embrace of Kim Jong-il, which matches its equally open tilt to Pakistan on the issue of Kashmir.
China is asserting itself as the Asian hegemon from Northeast Asia, through Southeast Asia to Southwest Asia. This is a strategic challenge to the interests of the US, its allies and friends.
Pakistan: Pakistani Taliban again claimed responsibility for killing at least 43 people and injuring 78 others in a suicide blast at a Shiite procession in Quetta, Pakistan, according to police chief Ghulam Shabir Sheikh. The occasion of the march is al Quds Day, which is an annual protest in solidarity with the Palestinians and to condemn Israel. Al Quds is the Muslim name for the city Jerusalem.
Comments from KGS NightWatch: Pakistani Sunni terrorists evidently will not tolerate Pakistani Shiites protesting in support of Sunni causes, namely, the Palestinians. The plight of the Palestinians has no relevance to the goals of the Pakistani Taliban which include creation of a Pakistani Islamic emirate based in Islamabad.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Carter and Aijalon Gomes Arrive in Boston
By Hwang Doo-hyong of Yonhap News Agency from Washington, D.C.
Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter returned home Friday with an American held in North Korea for seven months for trespassing, reports said.
A private charter flight carrying Carter, Aijalon Gomes and their entourage arrived at Logan International Airport in Boston, the hometown of Gomes, who was sentenced in May to eight years in a labor and re-education camp and fined US$700,000 for illegal entry in January.
Carter flew into Pyongyang Wednesday [25 August] on a private mission to secure Gomes' release. His very presence in Pyongyang was seen as a thaw in U.S. relations with North Korea, which had been chilly since North Korea's torpedoeing of a South Korean warship in March.
However, the former U.S. president apparently did not meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. who abruptly left for China as Carter flew to Pyongyang.
Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter returned home Friday with an American held in North Korea for seven months for trespassing, reports said.
A private charter flight carrying Carter, Aijalon Gomes and their entourage arrived at Logan International Airport in Boston, the hometown of Gomes, who was sentenced in May to eight years in a labor and re-education camp and fined US$700,000 for illegal entry in January.
Carter flew into Pyongyang Wednesday [25 August] on a private mission to secure Gomes' release. His very presence in Pyongyang was seen as a thaw in U.S. relations with North Korea, which had been chilly since North Korea's torpedoeing of a South Korean warship in March.
However, the former U.S. president apparently did not meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. who abruptly left for China as Carter flew to Pyongyang.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
From Our Friends at KSG NightWatch
*Contents below are entirely from our friends at KSG NightWatch:
South Korea - North Korea: South Korean National Defense Minister Kim Tae Young said on 24 August that his troops are now allowed to respond immediately in the event North Korean shelling impacts on land south of the maritime border off the west coast.
South Korean troops previously were banned from firing back north of the Northern Limit Line if the North did not stop firing after warnings, even if shells landed on the South's side. Minister Kim said South Korea will give the North advance warning.
Comment : This represents an official authorization for more aggressive rules of engagement. The South has decided it will not be bullied by the North even if the new rules of engagement put other issues at risk, such as resumption of nuclear talks.
The historic record shows that the South's approach is much more likely to be productive than the alternative. North Koreans respect power, though they will test it to decide whether it is power or bluff. There will be artillery exchanges off the west coast this fall. - KSG NightWatch
North Korea-US: Former US President Carter will depart soon for North Korea on a private mission to free US citizen Aijalon Mahli Gomes who has been imprisoned after crossing illegally from China.
Comment: The North Koreans will welcome President Carter warmly because he is the only American President to have held discussions with the late President Kim Il-sung. Carter would not go were a warm welcome and high likelihood of success not in prospect.
The details of the North Korean welcome -- whether he meets Kim Chong-il and/or Chang Song-taek, for example - plus the success of his rescue mission will provide insights into the stability and confidence of the North Korean leadership and the prospects for Six Party talks. - KSG NightWatch
South Korea - North Korea: South Korean National Defense Minister Kim Tae Young said on 24 August that his troops are now allowed to respond immediately in the event North Korean shelling impacts on land south of the maritime border off the west coast.
South Korean troops previously were banned from firing back north of the Northern Limit Line if the North did not stop firing after warnings, even if shells landed on the South's side. Minister Kim said South Korea will give the North advance warning.
Comment : This represents an official authorization for more aggressive rules of engagement. The South has decided it will not be bullied by the North even if the new rules of engagement put other issues at risk, such as resumption of nuclear talks.
The historic record shows that the South's approach is much more likely to be productive than the alternative. North Koreans respect power, though they will test it to decide whether it is power or bluff. There will be artillery exchanges off the west coast this fall. - KSG NightWatch
North Korea-US: Former US President Carter will depart soon for North Korea on a private mission to free US citizen Aijalon Mahli Gomes who has been imprisoned after crossing illegally from China.
Comment: The North Koreans will welcome President Carter warmly because he is the only American President to have held discussions with the late President Kim Il-sung. Carter would not go were a warm welcome and high likelihood of success not in prospect.
The details of the North Korean welcome -- whether he meets Kim Chong-il and/or Chang Song-taek, for example - plus the success of his rescue mission will provide insights into the stability and confidence of the North Korean leadership and the prospects for Six Party talks. - KSG NightWatch
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
North Korean Media Characterization of the ROK-US Wartime OPCON Transfer Postponement
Background: In August 2006, the late South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun affirmed his strong position to pursue a policy toward regaining South Korea’s wartime operational control (OPCON), and in September 2006 South Korea and the US both agreed on the transfer of wartime OPCON during the South Korea-US Summit Meeting. Although the two sides initially agreed to expeditiously complete the transition of OPCON to South Korea after October 15, 2009, but not later than March 15, 2012, the agreed date was moved to April 17, 2012 after the South Korea-US Defense Ministerial Meeting held on February 27, 2007. Additionally, the two sides agreed to dissolve the ROK-US Combined Forces Command (CFC) by April 17, 2012, at the same meeting.
During a South Korea-US summit meeting held on June 26, 2010, however, the South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and the US President Barack Obama agreed to adjust the timeline for the handover of wartime OPCON from April 17, 2012 to December 1, 2015 given the increasingly uncertain and volatile security situation on the Korean Peninsula.
North Korean Reaction to the Delay of OPCON Transfer: On July 1, 2010, the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland (CPRF) spokesman issued a statement decrying the postponement of the OPCON transfer – which appears to be the first of the North Korean reaction to the announcement of the OPCON transfer postponement. As of the date of this posting, there have been seven other North Korean media reports criticizing the postponement since the CPRF statement.
The CPRF statement and the subsequent North Korean media reports uniformly condemned the South Korean President Lee Myung-bak for “begging” the US to postpone the transfer of wartime OPCON.
The North Korean media characterization of the OPCON transfer postponement is consistent with the past North Korean media portrayals of the pending ROK-US OPCON transfer. The North Korean media has in the past portrayed the OPCON transfer as a “smoke screen” for a future attack on North Korea, claiming that the US will use the ROK forces as a “shock brigade” to facilitate its strategy to build up forces and equipment on the Korean Peninsula in preparations for war. Consistent this logic, the North Korean media claims the postponement of the OPCON transfer will provide the US an opportunity to strengthen its military presence on the Korean Peninsula so that it may “unhesitatingly wage an all-out war” against North Korea.
During a South Korea-US summit meeting held on June 26, 2010, however, the South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and the US President Barack Obama agreed to adjust the timeline for the handover of wartime OPCON from April 17, 2012 to December 1, 2015 given the increasingly uncertain and volatile security situation on the Korean Peninsula.
North Korean Reaction to the Delay of OPCON Transfer: On July 1, 2010, the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland (CPRF) spokesman issued a statement decrying the postponement of the OPCON transfer – which appears to be the first of the North Korean reaction to the announcement of the OPCON transfer postponement. As of the date of this posting, there have been seven other North Korean media reports criticizing the postponement since the CPRF statement.
The CPRF statement and the subsequent North Korean media reports uniformly condemned the South Korean President Lee Myung-bak for “begging” the US to postpone the transfer of wartime OPCON.
- “The traitor Lee Myung-bak, who went on a junket to Canada not long ago, met with Obama and played the game of begging and agreeing on the postponement of the wartime operational control [OPCON] transfer until 2015, while talking about the so-called changes in the security environment.” (The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland Statement, 01 July 2010)
- “The South Korean conservative group persistently begged for the extension of OPCON of their own accord and, accordingly, the U.S. has got justification to strengthen its policy for military occupation and colonial rule over South Korea. Needless to say, the U.S., which pretended to reluctantly accept such request, will demand the high price for it. This resulted in putting the people of South Korea under heavier yoke of domination and subjugation by the U.S.” (Rodong Sinmun, 07 July 2010)
- “Traitor Lee Myung-bak of South Korea recently begged its American master to postpone "the transfer of wartime operation control (OPCON)" till 2015. This is a sordid act of sycophancy and treachery which can be committed only by a poor pro-U.S. stooge who stakes his life on the U.S. and a revelation of an unpardonable traitorous scenario to ignite a war of aggression against the DPRK at any cost with the backing of outside forces.” (KCNA, 13 July 2010)
- “The CPRF brands the game of postponing the wartime OPCON transfer, which has been realized as a result of the conspiracy and collusion between the United States and the puppet gang, as an extremely grave provocation to drive the currently very dangerous situation to more serious extremes and to unhesitatingly wage an all-out war against us, and sternly denounces and condemns it in the name of the entire nation.” (The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland Statement, 01 July 2010)
- “The U.S. extension of the OPCON under the pretext of the warship case made it possible for it to strengthen its military domination over South Korea and put its conservative ruling forces under a tighter control in a bid to effectively use them as a shock brigade for implementing its policy for invading the DPRK.” (Rodong Sinmun, 13 July 2010)
North Korean media’s Previous Portrayals of ROK-US OPCON transfer as a “smoke screen” for a future attack on North Korea:
- “The commander of the U.S. forces in south Korea made reckless remarks only to give the lie to the U.S. move for "transfer of the right to command wartime operations" to South Korea and disclose the sinister ambition for the aggression on the DPRK.” (KCNA, 09 February 2010)
- “It is the unchanging strategic design of the United States to cling more tightly to South Korea militarily, provoke another Korean war using it as a steppingstone, and going one step further, realize its wild ambition for achieving military domination over Asia.” (Roodong Sinmun, 09 February 2010)
- “In recent years alone, the US military forces have been turning the US imperialist forces of aggression forcibly occupying South Korea into the armed forces for mounting a preemptive attack centered on the navy and the air force equipped with far greater mobility and striking power, while blabbering about some kind of "strategic flexibility" and "return of wartime operational control," and they are cooking up new scenarios for a war of northward aggression reflecting a strategy for launching a preemptive nuclear attack and using this as a basis to more adventurously stage joint military exercises with the South Korean puppets.” (Rodong Sinmun, 07 March 2009)
- “The US imperialist warmongers currently regard the transfer of ‘wartime operational control’ to the puppet forces, which is to take place in 2012, as an occasion to perfect the operational system of preemptive attack, and attempt to reduce ground troops and equipment and shift the focus on the naval and forces, a system of preemptive attack.” (Rodong Sinmun, 27 November 2008)
- “The United States is attempting to pull the trigger of a new war on the Korean peninsula at any cost by turning the South Korean puppet forces into an autonomous force of war on the pretext of the ‘transfer of wartime operational control.’” (Rodong Sinmun, 16 September 2008)
North Korean Media’s Past Claims that the US will use the ROK as a ‘shock brigade’:
- “The U.S. seeks to turn its forces in South Korea into a task force capable of conducting military actions for aggression in vaster areas, not just the regional forces tasked with carrying out limited military duty in limited areas, and use the South Korean army as a shock brigade.” (KCNA, 09 February 2010)
- “The United States has been preparing US forces occupying South Korea as rapid mobile forces to make them carry out aggressive military actions in broader areas, not as a regional force that discharges its limited military duty in restricted areas, and use the South Korean forces as a shock brigade. The game of playing with the "transfer of wartime operational control" is a dangerous military move that seeks this very goal.” (Rodong Sinmun, 09 February 2010)
- “The US imperialists' maneuvers for pressing forward the "handover of wartime operational control" also serve the purpose of subordinating the puppet armed forces to the US imperialists more thoroughly and using them as a shock brigade in a war of northward aggression.” (Minju Joson, 24 June 2009)
- “If another Korean war breaks out, they will push forward the South Korean puppet forces as a shock brigade and [the US Forces] will use the method verified through Iraq and Afghanistan wars; [they] will attempt to easily achieve the purpose of northward aggression while reducing a force loss to the maximum by mobilizing the naval and air forces' state-of-the-art attack weapons.” (Rodong Sinmun, 27 November 2008)
- “The United States is attempting to pull the trigger of a new war on the Korean peninsula at any cost by turning the South Korean puppet forces into an autonomous force of war on the pretext of the ‘transfer of wartime operational control’ and by using them as a shock brigade, while enhancing the mobility and attack capability of the US imperialist forces of aggression occupying South Korea.” (Rodong Sinmun, 16 September 2008)
The North Korean media characterization of the OPCON transfer postponement is consistent with the past North Korean media portrayals of the pending ROK-US OPCON transfer. The North Korean media has in the past portrayed the OPCON transfer as a “smoke screen” for a future attack on North Korea, claiming that the US will use the ROK forces as a “shock brigade” to facilitate its strategy to build up forces and equipment on the Korean Peninsula in preparations for war. Consistent this logic, the North Korean media claims the postponement of the OPCON transfer will provide the US an opportunity to strengthen its military presence on the Korean Peninsula so that it may “unhesitatingly wage an all-out war” against North Korea.
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
U.S. Cautious About U.N. Condemnation of North Korea
(From Yonhap News Agency in English, published in June 9 [Korea Time], June 8 [EDT]; By Hwang Doo-hyong)
WASHINGTON - The United States Tuesday [8 June] was cautious about how to punish North Korea for the torpedoing of a South Korean warship amid China's lukewarm position on further sanctions on its communist ally.
"Just to clarify, to be sure that you didn't mishear me, the South Korean government has sent a letter to the president of the Security Council," State Department spokesman Philip Crowley said. "We do expect the matter to come up within the council in the next couple of weeks. We would expect to have, per the South Korean request, an appropriate response from the U.N. Security Council. But what that specific response is will be a part of the upcoming debate."
Crowley was clarifying the remarks he made the previous day that the U.S. expected "a strong statement" on North Korea from the Security Council, which in some circles was interpreted as a scolding from the council presidential statement, viewed as weaker than a resolution.
* Link to the US Department of State Daily Press Briefing for June 7 (EDT) where Mr. Crowley made his "a strong statement" comment.
* Link to the US Department of State Daily Press Briefing for June 8 (EDT) that this Yonhap reporting is based on.
North Korea is already under U.N. sanctions imposed after its nuclear and missile tests.
Departing for Beijing earlier in the day to seek Chinese support for condemnation of North Korea, South Korean Vice Foreign Minister Chun Yung-woo said in Seoul that a resolution seeking additional sanctions "will not have practical benefits" as bilateral and multilateral sanctions have already been imposed on North Korea.
Chun, however, called for the Security Council to take "appropriate action" as the world body responsible for maintaining peace and stability in the world.
Chun's remarks appear to embrace the reality that China, a veto-wielding council member, has not yet officially blamed the North for the sinking of the warship Cheonan. China has only emphasized the need to "avoid conflict" and "maintain peace and stability" on the Korean Peninsula.
Many analysts believe it will take a considerable time before the council acts, whether it be non-binding presidential statement or a resolution with or without sanctions. It took about two weeks for the council to adopt resolutions against North Korea for its nuclear and missile tests.
South Korea and the U.S. will also conduct a joint military exercise in waters near the scene of the sinking late this month in a show of force against North Korea with the participation of the aircraft carrier USS George Washington.
"Just to clarify, to be sure that you didn't mishear me, the South Korean government has sent a letter to the president of the Security Council," State Department spokesman Philip Crowley said. "We do expect the matter to come up within the council in the next couple of weeks. We would expect to have, per the South Korean request, an appropriate response from the U.N. Security Council. But what that specific response is will be a part of the upcoming debate."
Crowley was clarifying the remarks he made the previous day that the U.S. expected "a strong statement" on North Korea from the Security Council, which in some circles was interpreted as a scolding from the council presidential statement, viewed as weaker than a resolution.
* Link to the US Department of State Daily Press Briefing for June 7 (EDT) where Mr. Crowley made his "a strong statement" comment.
* Link to the US Department of State Daily Press Briefing for June 8 (EDT) that this Yonhap reporting is based on.
North Korea is already under U.N. sanctions imposed after its nuclear and missile tests.
Chun, however, called for the Security Council to take "appropriate action" as the world body responsible for maintaining peace and stability in the world.
Chun's remarks appear to embrace the reality that China, a veto-wielding council member, has not yet officially blamed the North for the sinking of the warship Cheonan. China has only emphasized the need to "avoid conflict" and "maintain peace and stability" on the Korean Peninsula.
Many analysts believe it will take a considerable time before the council acts, whether it be non-binding presidential statement or a resolution with or without sanctions. It took about two weeks for the council to adopt resolutions against North Korea for its nuclear and missile tests.
An international team of investigators concluded last month that a North Korean mini-submarine torpedoed the Cheonan, but North Korea vehemently denies involvement and has threatened all-out war if sanctioned. The March 26 incident claimed 46 lives.
South Korea severed all ties with North Korea, except for the joint industrial complex in the North's border town of Kaesong, and is preparing for resuming propaganda broadcasting along the border after a six-year hiatus.
Monday, June 7, 2010
Sino-US Military Tensions on Full Display
(From South China Morning Post; by Greg Torode, Chief Asia correspondent in Singapore)
Sino-US military tensions broke out into the open at a security conference in Singapore yesterday, as a senior PLA strategist directly challenged US Defence Secretary Dr Robert Gates over the freeze in ties.
The rare exchange saw Major General Zhu Chenghu warn that "you, the Americans, are taking China as the enemy" in response to a strong speech from Gates defending arms sales to Taiwan and blaming Beijing for the breakdown in military relations. Gates insisted he wanted co-operation with China and did not view it as an enemy.
The exchange was part of a series of statements to the informal Shangri-La Dialogue that crystallised many of the issues clouding ties. While both sides spoke of a yearning for a deep and comprehensive military relationship, differences were also sharply described.
The lead PLA delegate, General Ma Xiaotian, for example, said arm
s sales and US surveillance operations in the South and East China Seas were obstacles to the resumption of exchanges. Gates' address made clear that Washington was not about to budge on such issues, and expressed deepening US concerns over the South China Sea.
The exchange across a conference room crowded with regional government and military officials and academics ended in a brief handshake between Gates and Ma. It represented the only conversation between the two countries this weekend when hopes for a formal meeting were scuppered by China's decision to scrap a visit by Gates to Beijing after the conference.
Beijing halted military exchanges following a fresh package of US$6.4 billion worth of arms to Taiwan in February - the first under the administration of President Barack Obama - and a White House visit by the Dalai Lama soon after.
Gates said such sales were based on "well-established precedent and ... longstanding [US] belief that a peaceful and non-coerced resolution to the Taiwan issue is an abiding national interest - and vital for the overall security of Asia". "Taiwan arms sales over the decades have not impeded closer political and economic ties. Only in the military-to-military arena has progress on critical mutual security issues been held hostage over something that is, quite frankly, old news."
"I believe that this sort of arms sale sends to the Chinese the wrong signal ... that is Chinese are taking the Americans as partners and as friends and you the Americans are taking the Chinese as the enemy."
Ma, deputy chief of the PLA General Staff, warned that military relations were "trapped in a cycle of ... suspension and development". "Both sides hope through joint efforts we can break this cycle. Unfortunately efforts have not worked so far ... It takes two to tango."
He also reiterated concerns about cold war-era alliances and called for more equal, trusting relationships across the region - another crack at Washington's traditional approach.
The sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan by a North Korean torpedo also sparked debate.
Gates said the region shared the task of tackling "dangerous provocations", warning that inaction would represent a failure to protect peace and stability. Beijing has to yet detail its response. Zhu questioned the differences between the US response to the sinking and its caution over the fatal boarding by Israel of a Gaza-bound aid ship last week.
In 2005, Zhu said China would use nuclear weapons against the US if Washington intervened militarily in a conflict between Beijing and Taipei.
Sino-US military tensions broke out into the open at a security conference in Singapore yesterday, as a senior PLA strategist directly challenged US Defence Secretary Dr Robert Gates over the freeze in ties.
The rare exchange saw Major General Zhu Chenghu warn that "you, the Americans, are taking China as the enemy" in response to a strong speech from Gates defending arms sales to Taiwan and blaming Beijing for the breakdown in military relations. Gates insisted he wanted co-operation with China and did not view it as an enemy.
The exchange was part of a series of statements to the informal Shangri-La Dialogue that crystallised many of the issues clouding ties. While both sides spoke of a yearning for a deep and comprehensive military relationship, differences were also sharply described.
The lead PLA delegate, General Ma Xiaotian, for example, said arm
s sales and US surveillance operations in the South and East China Seas were obstacles to the resumption of exchanges. Gates' address made clear that Washington was not about to budge on such issues, and expressed deepening US concerns over the South China Sea. The exchange across a conference room crowded with regional government and military officials and academics ended in a brief handshake between Gates and Ma. It represented the only conversation between the two countries this weekend when hopes for a formal meeting were scuppered by China's decision to scrap a visit by Gates to Beijing after the conference.
Beijing halted military exchanges following a fresh package of US$6.4 billion worth of arms to Taiwan in February - the first under the administration of President Barack Obama - and a White House visit by the Dalai Lama soon after.
Gates said such sales were based on "well-established precedent and ... longstanding [US] belief that a peaceful and non-coerced resolution to the Taiwan issue is an abiding national interest - and vital for the overall security of Asia". "Taiwan arms sales over the decades have not impeded closer political and economic ties. Only in the military-to-military arena has progress on critical mutual security issues been held hostage over something that is, quite frankly, old news."
Describing Beijing's break-off of ties as "making little sense", he said the US remained committed to agreements between Obama and President Hu Jintao to advance sustained and reliable military relations. "The key words here are `sustained and reliable' - not a relationship repeatedly interrupted by ... the vagaries of political weather."
Zhu, director general of the department of strategic studies at the National Defence University, said it was not fair to blame the PLA or Beijing for the breakdown.
"I believe that this sort of arms sale sends to the Chinese the wrong signal ... that is Chinese are taking the Americans as partners and as friends and you the Americans are taking the Chinese as the enemy."
Most Chinese people believed the "sole purpose" of the arms sales was to prevent the reunification of China, he said.
Ma, deputy chief of the PLA General Staff, warned that military relations were "trapped in a cycle of ... suspension and development". "Both sides hope through joint efforts we can break this cycle. Unfortunately efforts have not worked so far ... It takes two to tango."
He also reiterated concerns about cold war-era alliances and called for more equal, trusting relationships across the region - another crack at Washington's traditional approach.
The sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan by a North Korean torpedo also sparked debate.
Gates said the region shared the task of tackling "dangerous provocations", warning that inaction would represent a failure to protect peace and stability. Beijing has to yet detail its response. Zhu questioned the differences between the US response to the sinking and its caution over the fatal boarding by Israel of a Gaza-bound aid ship last week.
In 2005, Zhu said China would use nuclear weapons against the US if Washington intervened militarily in a conflict between Beijing and Taipei.
Sunday, June 6, 2010
South Korean Investigators Looking Into Possible Leakage of OPLAN 5027
(From the Korea Herald)Military intelligence officials and prosecutors are investigating whether an Army major general, recently booked on espionage charges, had leaked the Korea-U.S. combined war scenario "Operational Plan 5027."
The Defense Security Command (DSC) has been questioning the two-star general, identified only by the surname Kim, over whether he handed over the core content of the OPLAN 5027 to a spy for North Korea.
The spy, surnamed Park, was a former South Korean military intelligence official recruited by North Korea. Kim is purported to have given classified information regarding military management and operations to Park between 2005 and 2007.
Prosecutors arrested Park and an executive of a local defense firm last Thursday on charges of offering military secrets to the communist state.
"We are not yet at a stage to conclude that OPLAN 5027 has been handed over to the North. We are conducting our investigation over the possible leak of the military secrets in a variety of directions," said a DSC official on condition of anonymity.
The DSC plans to seek an arrest warrant once it finds Kim handed over the content of the war plan over to the communist country. The military is expanding its probe on the case to verify if more military officials are implicated in the alleged espionage activities.
The South Korean and U.S. militaries maintain the joint war plan in case of North Korean aggression. The plan was first drawn up in 1974 and has been revised and complemented several times.
Under the plan, if hostilities break out, the United States would deploy up to 690,000 troops, 160 vessels and 2,000 aircraft to the peninsula, in addition to the current troops stationed here, which total 28,500, to help South Korean forces remove the regime of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and defeat his 1.19-million-strong military.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Kim Jong-Il: Right-Wing Mole?
An interesting piece published on Foreign Policy in Focus World Beat, Vol. 5, No. 20, 25 May 2010.
Kim Jong Il must work for the American Enterprise Institute. Or maybe it's the Heritage Foundation. The North Korean dictator doesn't talk much about his non-resident fellowship at a right-wing U.S. think tank. It might not go over well with the Politburo in Pyongyang.
But actions speak louder than words.
North Korea's sinking of the Cheonan, a South Korean ship that went down in March in the Yellow Sea near the maritime border between the two countries, is just what the right-wing doctors have ordered. Japan was looking a little squishy on the Okinawa base issue. China needed some reminders about just how rogue its erstwhile ally really is. And South Korea's conservative President Lee Myung Bak wanted confirmation that his containment approach to the north was justified.
Right on cue, Kim Jong Il torpedoed a South Korean ship, killing 46 sailors. The incident plays so much into the hands of North Korea's adversaries that some analysts have looked for other culprits, including friendly fire from either South Korea or the United States. While such speculation is interesting, it seems rather farfetched. In this age of WikiLeaks, it's hard to imagine a successful cover-up of such friendly fire. And the evidence implicating other actors is circumstantial, to say the least.
Meanwhile, Pyongyang's fingerprints are all over this one. The South Koreans have produced torpedo fragments from dredging the area where the ship sank. There's Korean lettering on the propulsion shaft that matches the font used in another North Korean torpedo the South Koreans have. And the South Koreans also matched traces of propellant to an earlier North Korean torpedo. Skeptics have challenged some of these findings, but the rebuttals in both news outlets and blogs are rather convincing.
Perhaps the South Korean government fabricated the evidence? Maybe. But South Korea was reluctant to point the finger at the north in the first place. A successful North Korean strike embarrasses the South Korean military and casts a shadow over the South Korean economy.
So, it looks as though AEI's overseas fellow is the most logical perp. As a result of his bold move, South Korea is suspending all contact with the North. Forget about trade (about a quarter of a billion dollars a year) and access to South Korean shipping lanes. Washington is backing its South Korean ally 100 percent. The hard right has been pushing for this kind of isolation policy against North Korea for some time.
Even more timely is the role the Cheonan sinking plays in U.S.-Japan relations. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama was wavering on whether or not he should accede to U.S. pressure to build a new base in Okinawa to replace the aging Futenma Marine Corps facility. But, according to a senior U.S. official, the Cheonan incident reminded the Japanese government "that this is still a very dangerous neighborhood and that the U.S.-Japan alliance and the basing arrangements that are part of that are critical to Japan's security."
North Korea, in other words, has managed to torpedo all attempts to break the isolation of the country and reduce military tensions in the region. If the Dear Leader didn't receive under-the-table payments from John Bolton and friends, what on earth motivated such a self-destructive act? Perhaps Kim wanted to rally nationalist sentiment in the country on the eve of his son's succession to the top spot. Perhaps it was simple revenge for South Korea'sfiring on a North Korean ship that passed into South Korean waters last November. The maritime boundary between the two countries has been long disputed, so trespass is truly in the eyes of the beholder.
Actually, the situation is even more complicated, as Mike Chinoy points out in Forbes. When South Korean president Lee Myung Bak took office, he backtracked on his predecessor's pledge to work with North Korea to build confidence around the disputed maritime boundary. "The North was infuriated by what it saw as a deliberate belittling of accords signed by its all-powerful leader - what one western analyst described as 'sticking a finger in Kim Jong Il's eye,'" writes Chinoy. "So Pyongyang responded in a predictably belligerent fashion - by ratcheting up tensions in the disputed waters."
So, like with the Maine and the Tonkin Gulf incident, are we going to war? Fortunately, no one is calling for military retaliation against North Korea. South Koreans oppose military action by two to one, and they even support the maintenance of the south-managed Kaesong Industrial Complex, which employs 40,000 North Koreans (and would likely cost the south half a billion dollars to close). Even the Heritage Foundation is going only so far as to recommend an economic cutoff, further isolation of North Korea, and a clear condemnation in the Security Council. China remains lukewarm about any major challenge to North Korea and will do its best to throw a wet blanket over the controversy.
Washington will still try as hard as it can to pressure China into taking as hard-line a stance as possible. Other than express legitimate outrage, what would these stepped-up containment efforts achieve? About as much as Lee Myung Bak's initial hard-line posture. The North Korean government doesn't apologize when pushed up against the wall - it's content to fall back on its policy of self-reliance, or juche. And the North Korean people haven't risen up against their rulers when pushed into starvation. As Joel Wit points out in The New York Times, diplomacy remains our most viable strategy: "In the aftermath of the Cheonan sinking, the United States and South Korea must recognize that a return to dialogue would serve our interests. It is the only realistic way to rein in North Korea's objectionable activities."
This isn't a particularly palatable message right now in Seoul. And it probably won't go down very well here in Washington. But after a couple months of denunciations and attempted arm-twisting, it would be best if the countries involved in the Six Party talks take this advice to heart. If we want to prevent any future Cheonans, we need to sit down with North Korea. The last thing we want is a regime with nothing to lose - and plenty of weapons - to go out in a blaze of juche and take as many with them as possible.
Kim Jong Il must work for the American Enterprise Institute. Or maybe it's the Heritage Foundation. The North Korean dictator doesn't talk much about his non-resident fellowship at a right-wing U.S. think tank. It might not go over well with the Politburo in Pyongyang.
But actions speak louder than words.
North Korea's sinking of the Cheonan, a South Korean ship that went down in March in the Yellow Sea near the maritime border between the two countries, is just what the right-wing doctors have ordered. Japan was looking a little squishy on the Okinawa base issue. China needed some reminders about just how rogue its erstwhile ally really is. And South Korea's conservative President Lee Myung Bak wanted confirmation that his containment approach to the north was justified.
Right on cue, Kim Jong Il torpedoed a South Korean ship, killing 46 sailors. The incident plays so much into the hands of North Korea's adversaries that some analysts have looked for other culprits, including friendly fire from either South Korea or the United States. While such speculation is interesting, it seems rather farfetched. In this age of WikiLeaks, it's hard to imagine a successful cover-up of such friendly fire. And the evidence implicating other actors is circumstantial, to say the least.
Meanwhile, Pyongyang's fingerprints are all over this one. The South Koreans have produced torpedo fragments from dredging the area where the ship sank. There's Korean lettering on the propulsion shaft that matches the font used in another North Korean torpedo the South Koreans have. And the South Koreans also matched traces of propellant to an earlier North Korean torpedo. Skeptics have challenged some of these findings, but the rebuttals in both news outlets and blogs are rather convincing.
Perhaps the South Korean government fabricated the evidence? Maybe. But South Korea was reluctant to point the finger at the north in the first place. A successful North Korean strike embarrasses the South Korean military and casts a shadow over the South Korean economy.
So, it looks as though AEI's overseas fellow is the most logical perp. As a result of his bold move, South Korea is suspending all contact with the North. Forget about trade (about a quarter of a billion dollars a year) and access to South Korean shipping lanes. Washington is backing its South Korean ally 100 percent. The hard right has been pushing for this kind of isolation policy against North Korea for some time.
Even more timely is the role the Cheonan sinking plays in U.S.-Japan relations. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama was wavering on whether or not he should accede to U.S. pressure to build a new base in Okinawa to replace the aging Futenma Marine Corps facility. But, according to a senior U.S. official, the Cheonan incident reminded the Japanese government "that this is still a very dangerous neighborhood and that the U.S.-Japan alliance and the basing arrangements that are part of that are critical to Japan's security."
North Korea, in other words, has managed to torpedo all attempts to break the isolation of the country and reduce military tensions in the region. If the Dear Leader didn't receive under-the-table payments from John Bolton and friends, what on earth motivated such a self-destructive act? Perhaps Kim wanted to rally nationalist sentiment in the country on the eve of his son's succession to the top spot. Perhaps it was simple revenge for South Korea's
Actually, the situation is even more complicated, as Mike Chinoy points out in Forbes. When South Korean president Lee Myung Bak took office, he backtracked on his predecessor's pledge to work with North Korea to build confidence around the disputed maritime boundary. "The North was infuriated by what it saw as a deliberate belittling of accords signed by its all-powerful leader - what one western analyst described as 'sticking a finger in Kim Jong Il's eye,'" writes Chinoy. "So Pyongyang responded in a predictably belligerent fashion - by ratcheting up tensions in the disputed waters."
So, like with the Maine and the Tonkin Gulf incident, are we going to war? Fortunately, no one is calling for military retaliation against North Korea. South Koreans oppose military action by two to one, and they even support the maintenance of the south-managed Kaesong Industrial Complex, which employs 40,000 North Koreans (and would likely cost the south half a billion dollars to close). Even the Heritage Foundation is going only so far as to recommend an economic cutoff, further isolation of North Korea, and a clear condemnation in the Security Council. China remains lukewarm about any major challenge to North Korea and will do its best to throw a wet blanket over the controversy.
Washington will still try as hard as it can to pressure China into taking as hard-line a stance as possible. Other than express legitimate outrage, what would these stepped-up containment efforts achieve? About as much as Lee Myung Bak's initial hard-line posture. The North Korean government doesn't apologize when pushed up against the wall - it's content to fall back on its policy of self-reliance, or juche. And the North Korean people haven't risen up against their rulers when pushed into starvation. As Joel Wit points out in The New York Times, diplomacy remains our most viable strategy: "In the aftermath of the Cheonan sinking, the United States and South Korea must recognize that a return to dialogue would serve our interests. It is the only realistic way to rein in North Korea's objectionable activities."
This isn't a particularly palatable message right now in Seoul. And it probably won't go down very well here in Washington. But after a couple months of denunciations and attempted arm-twisting, it would be best if the countries involved in the Six Party talks take this advice to heart. If we want to prevent any future Cheonans, we need to sit down with North Korea. The last thing we want is a regime with nothing to lose - and plenty of weapons - to go out in a blaze of juche and take as many with them as possible.
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Foreign Policy In Focus is a network for research, analysis and action that brings together more than 700 scholars, advocates and activists who strive to make the United States a more responsible global partner. It is a project of the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS) in Washington.
The Institute for Policy Studies is a community of public scholars and organizers linking peace, justice and the environment in the U.S. and globally. It works with social movements to promote democracy and challenge concentrated wealth, corporate and military power.
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Thursday, February 25, 2010
North Korea, as usual, threatens South Korea and the US over combined exercise
North Korean People's Army General Staff spokesman issued a statement today threatening to attack South Korea and US forces for a scheduled combined military exercise in March.
The enemies describe [the joint military exercises] as annual exercises and defense, but [the exercises] are pilot operations and nuclear war exercises aimed at a surprise, preemptive attack on our Republic to all intents and purposes.North Korea routinely claims the annual South Korea-US exercise that mobilizes tens of thousands of US and South Korean troops and equipment amounts to a precursor to an invasion of its soil.
If the US imperialists and South Korean warmongers launch the joint military exercises for aggression, ignoring our repeated warnings, we will react to them with our powerful military counteraction, and if necessary, mercilessly destroy the bulwark of aggression by mobilizing all the offensive and defensive means including nuclear deterrent.
Here are the two versions of the February 25 North Korean statement issued in response to the exercise (one is a KCNA version that was released in English and the other is a translation of the KCBS broadcast that was originally broadcast in Korean):
KPA General Staff Spokesman Blasts Projected U.S.-S. Korea Joint Military Exercises (KCNA, 25 Feb 2010)
The U.S. imperialists and the warmongers of the South Korean puppet army finally announced that they would stage the DPRK-targeted Key Resolve and Foal Eagle joint military exercises from March 8.
In this regard a spokesman for the General Staff of the Korean People's Army released the following statement Thursday: Massively involved in the exercises will be more than 18 000-strong forces including over 10 000 U.S. imperialist aggression troops present in south Korea and ultra-modern military hardware as well as army corps-level, fleet command-level and flying corps-level units of the South Korean puppet army and even civilian forces. The enemies describe the exercises as "annual ones" and "defensive" but they are pilot operations and nuclear war exercises aimed to preempt a surprise attack on the DPRK, to all intents and purposes.
From the outset of the year the warmongers of the South Korean puppet army in collusion with the U.S. imperialists have frantically staged mid-winter tactical exercise, large-scale coordinated ground exercise and other exercises of various codenames, while talking about a "preemptive attack" over self-defensive nuclear deterrent of the DPRK. This is by no means accidental.
This brought to light their true colors as war fanatics keen to bring dark clouds of a nuclear war to hang over the inviolable land, while seeking escalated tensions and confrontation only.
We will not remain a passive onlooker to this grave situation created by the provokers.
If the U.S. imperialists and South Korean warmongers launch the joint military exercises for aggression, ignoring our repeated warnings, we will react to them with our powerful military counteraction, and if necessary, mercilessly destroy the bulwark of aggression by mobilizing all the offensive and defensive means including nuclear deterrent.
The U.S. imperialists and the warmongers of the South Korean puppet army finally announced that they would stage the DPRK-targeted Key Resolve and Foal Eagle joint military exercises from March 8.
In this regard a spokesman for the General Staff of the Korean People's Army released the following statement Thursday: Massively involved in the exercises will be more than 18 000-strong forces including over 10 000 U.S. imperialist aggression troops present in south Korea and ultra-modern military hardware as well as army corps-level, fleet command-level and flying corps-level units of the South Korean puppet army and even civilian forces. The enemies describe the exercises as "annual ones" and "defensive" but they are pilot operations and nuclear war exercises aimed to preempt a surprise attack on the DPRK, to all intents and purposes.
From the outset of the year the warmongers of the South Korean puppet army in collusion with the U.S. imperialists have frantically staged mid-winter tactical exercise, large-scale coordinated ground exercise and other exercises of various codenames, while talking about a "preemptive attack" over self-defensive nuclear deterrent of the DPRK. This is by no means accidental.
This brought to light their true colors as war fanatics keen to bring dark clouds of a nuclear war to hang over the inviolable land, while seeking escalated tensions and confrontation only.
We will not remain a passive onlooker to this grave situation created by the provokers.
If the U.S. imperialists and South Korean warmongers launch the joint military exercises for aggression, ignoring our repeated warnings, we will react to them with our powerful military counteraction, and if necessary, mercilessly destroy the bulwark of aggression by mobilizing all the offensive and defensive means including nuclear deterrent.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Press statement by a spokesperson for the General Staff of the Korean People's Army [KPA] (Korean Central Broadcasting Station in Korean, 25 Feb 2010)
Currently, a touch-and-go dangerous situation, in which a war may break out any moment, is being created on the Korean peninsula due to brigandish US imperialists and South Korean puppet warmongers' reckless war maneuver.
Ignoring our repeated warnings, the enemies finally announced that they would stage the Key Resolve and Foal Eagle joint military exercises, which are northward aggression war exercises, from 8 March.
Massive forces of some 18,000-strong forces, including over 10,000 troops of the US aggression forces forcibly occupying South Korea, and state-of-the-art arms and equipment are to be intensively committed to the joint military exercises. [Also,] army corps-level, fleet command-level, and flying corps-level units of the South Korean puppets and even civilian forces are to be mobilized.
The enemies describe [the joint military exercises] as annual exercises and defense, but [the exercises] are pilot operations and nuclear war exercises aimed at a surprise, preemptive attack on our Republic to all intents and purposes.
It is by no means coincidental that South Korean puppet warmongers, who colluded with the US imperialists, have been frantically staging training under all kinds of pretexts, including mid-winter tactical training, and large-scale joint ground training, from the beginning of the year, while recklessly saying that they will launch a preemptive attack by picking on our self-defensive nuclear deterrent.
This by itself revealed that the US imperialists and South Korean puppet warmongers are the ones who are war fanatics trying to bring in dark clouds of a nuclear war to our sacred land, while only pursuing aggravation of tension and confrontation.
We will not just keep looking at today's grave situation created by the provokers.
Each heart of our military and people, who hold a deep grudge that has built up for more than half a century due to the aggressors, is strongly seething with soaring hatred and rage against the enemies that are igniting fire to a fuse of war, while giving off the smell of gunpowder, on this land today.
If the US imperialists and South Korean puppet warmongers carry out the aggressive joint military exercises despite our repeated warnings, we will respond to them with our powerful military counteraction [kangnyo'khan kunsajo'k taeu'ng]; and if necessary, we will mercilessly beat to a muddy place the stronghold of aggression [ch'imnyagu'i aso'ngu'l mujabihage chukt'angch'yo'bo'rilgo'sida] by mobilizing all the offensive and defensive means, including nuclear deterrent.
[Dated] 25 February 2010, Chuch'e 99, Pyongyang.
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
North Korea Started Uranium Program in 1990s, South Korean Foreign Minister Says
The South Korean Foreign Minister, Yu Myung-hwan, said on Wednesday [January 6] that North Korea apparently began pursuing a uranium enrichment program in 1996 - just two years after the 1994 Agreed Framework between the US and North Korea - in an interview with the Yonhap News Agency. Foreign Minister Yu said, "It appears that North Korea started its uranium enrichment program at least in 1996...What's clear is that the North began the enriched uranium development quite early." Yu did say, however, many things do remain unclear: "how far the program has advanced, how much enriched uranium, and how many nuclear weapons there are."
This being North Korea notwithstanding, this news is not too surprising. If the program indeed began in 1996, that means the planning and foundation work for the program has been on-going long before. It is also logical for a country to negotiate away something that it can afford to lose and have alternatives available to compensate for that loss. Oh, and of course, it should achieve maximum gain by negotiating something away. Given all this, it would only make sense North Korea traded away its nuclear program for international assistance after it already had plans in place to replace the loss internally. After all, no responsible leadership of a country relies strictly on the promise of the international community to guarantee its future.
[This almost makes North Korea seem logical and responsible, doesn't it?]
Well, for all of its faults, no one can argue that the North Korean leadership is definitely an extremely responsible and logical bunch when it comes to regime survival and domestic control.
This being North Korea notwithstanding, this news is not too surprising. If the program indeed began in 1996, that means the planning and foundation work for the program has been on-going long before. It is also logical for a country to negotiate away something that it can afford to lose and have alternatives available to compensate for that loss. Oh, and of course, it should achieve maximum gain by negotiating something away. Given all this, it would only make sense North Korea traded away its nuclear program for international assistance after it already had plans in place to replace the loss internally. After all, no responsible leadership of a country relies strictly on the promise of the international community to guarantee its future.
[This almost makes North Korea seem logical and responsible, doesn't it?]
Well, for all of its faults, no one can argue that the North Korean leadership is definitely an extremely responsible and logical bunch when it comes to regime survival and domestic control.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
S. Korea probing N. Korea's alleged hacking into war plan
December 18, 2009
South Korea is probing suspicions that North Korean hackers extracted details of a classified joint South Korean-U.S. war plan designed to deal with possible aggression by the communist state, a defense official in Seoul said Friday.
The suspected breach occurred late last month via an Internet Protocol address registered in China, a route North Korea is believed to use when collecting computer files from foreign networks, the official at the Ministry of National Defense said.
A South Korean officer has been reprimanded after he used an unsecured portable storage device to transfer the file explaining Operational Plan 5027 to a wired computer, said the official, who requested anonymity citing the sensitivity of the issue.
"The file did not contain the nuts and bolts of the plan, but we're continuing with our probe because we haven't ruled out the possibility that other files were tampered with," he said.
OPLAN 5027, crafted jointly by South Korea and the U.S., allows for the dispatch of nearly 700,000 U.S. troops to the Korean Peninsula should a full-fledged conflict arise here.
It also sets out wartime operational guidelines for the troops of the two countries. South Korea remains technically at war with North Korea after the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a truce.
The U.S., which has 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea, is working with the ally to adopt a new plan that better accounts for instabilities in North Korea, including nuclear-related ones.
No palpable details concerning North Korea's hacking unit have come to light, but South Korea believes the North has military personnel that specialize in overseas hacking.
When the Web sites of major U.S. and South Korean government agencies sustained attacks in July, officials here pointed to North Korea as a highly likely suspect.
The attacks hastened South Korea's plan to launch a command dedicated to preparing the military for cyber warfare, which will be set up on Jan. 1.
By Sam Kim
OPLAN 5027 compromised?
N.Korea 'Hacks into S.Korea-U.S. Defense Plans'
December 18, 2009
Suspected North Korean hackers may have gained access to a war plan devised by South Korea and the U.S. in preparation for an emergency, including details of specific operational scenarios, intelligence agencies believe.
According to the January issue of the Monthly Chosun published Friday, the National Intelligence Service and the Defense Security Command in mid-November discovered that an officer with the Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command had used an unsecured USB memory stick and in that process some contents of the plan, dubbed OPLAN 5027, contained in his PC was accessed by a hacker with a Chinese IP address.
The DSC carried out sweeping security checks after the Monthly Chosun reported in November that the military Internet network had been breached by a North Korean hacking unit, and that in the process the agency confirmed that OPLAN 5027 had been hacked.
The monthly in November reported that North Korean hackers stole information from the Chemical Accidents Response Information System built by the National Institute of Environmental Research under the Ministry of Environment after infiltrating the Third Army headquarters' computer network and using a password to access CARIS's Center for Chemical Safety Management.
OPLAN 5027 is the CFC plan formulated in preparation for a preemptive strike or provocation by North Korea. Commander of the U.S. Forces Korea Gen. Walter Sharp has recently said a new joint draft operational plan has been worked out to replace OPLAN 5027 ahead of the transfer of full operational control of Korean troops to Seoul. But one retired general pointed out that the new joint operational plan will be based on OPLAN 5027. "Our conceptual framework has been laid bare if it's true that OPLAN 5027 was leaked," he said.
Based on No. 110 Research Center under the North Korean Army General Staff's Reconnaissance Bureau, the North Korean hacking unit has an impressive staff, range of operations, technologies, and overseas branches. There is speculation that 500-600 hackers are working in North Korea, including the Ministry of State Security.
Kim Heung-kwang, a former professor at Pyongyang Computer Technology University, said, "We have information that the North Korean hacking unit will soon attack the computer network in South Korea, which could throw databases of financial institutions, the Military Manpower Administration and hospitals and other institutions into chaos."
December 18, 2009
Suspected North Korean hackers may have gained access to a war plan devised by South Korea and the U.S. in preparation for an emergency, including details of specific operational scenarios, intelligence agencies believe.
According to the January issue of the Monthly Chosun published Friday, the National Intelligence Service and the Defense Security Command in mid-November discovered that an officer with the Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command had used an unsecured USB memory stick and in that process some contents of the plan, dubbed OPLAN 5027, contained in his PC was accessed by a hacker with a Chinese IP address.
The DSC carried out sweeping security checks after the Monthly Chosun reported in November that the military Internet network had been breached by a North Korean hacking unit, and that in the process the agency confirmed that OPLAN 5027 had been hacked.
The monthly in November reported that North Korean hackers stole information from the Chemical Accidents Response Information System built by the National Institute of Environmental Research under the Ministry of Environment after infiltrating the Third Army headquarters' computer network and using a password to access CARIS's Center for Chemical Safety Management.
OPLAN 5027 is the CFC plan formulated in preparation for a preemptive strike or provocation by North Korea. Commander of the U.S. Forces Korea Gen. Walter Sharp has recently said a new joint draft operational plan has been worked out to replace OPLAN 5027 ahead of the transfer of full operational control of Korean troops to Seoul. But one retired general pointed out that the new joint operational plan will be based on OPLAN 5027. "Our conceptual framework has been laid bare if it's true that OPLAN 5027 was leaked," he said.
Based on No. 110 Research Center under the North Korean Army General Staff's Reconnaissance Bureau, the North Korean hacking unit has an impressive staff, range of operations, technologies, and overseas branches. There is speculation that 500-600 hackers are working in North Korea, including the Ministry of State Security.
Kim Heung-kwang, a former professor at Pyongyang Computer Technology University, said, "We have information that the North Korean hacking unit will soon attack the computer network in South Korea, which could throw databases of financial institutions, the Military Manpower Administration and hospitals and other institutions into chaos."
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Did Obama send a personal letter to North Korea's Kim Jong Il?
Christian Science Monitor
12/17/2009 (12/16/2009 EST)
By Peter Grier
Washington - The US envoy who traveled to Pyongyang for the Obama administration’s first high-level talks with North Korea did not get to meet Kim Jong Il, the mercurial North Korean leader.
But he says that he’s not offended. After all, only two American officials have met Kim Jong Il, ever. And those were Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and ex-President Bill Clinton.
“He does not meet with a lot of people. He meets with non-North Koreans very rarely,” said US Special Representative for North Korea Policy Stephen Bosworth at a Dec. 16 briefing for reporters.
Ambassador Bosworth would not confirm news reports that he carried a personal letter from President Obama to North Korea’s leader.
“I was the message,” said Bosworth.
Glimpse of a better future?
The main point of the message was that the relationship between North Korea and the US, and between North Korea and its East Asian neighbors, could be very different, and more positive, than it is today.
Of course, that is “provided that North Korea proceeds down this road to denuclearization,” said the US envoy.
North Korean officials agreed with him on the need to restart stalled six-party talks involving the United States, North Korea, China, Japan, Russia, and South Korea. But they did not set a time when they might return to the negotiating table.
In 2005, North Korea promised to begin dismantling its nuclear efforts in exchange for aid and political concessions. But that was the high point. Negotiations deadlocked shortly thereafter.
US message: don't test again
This June, the UN Security Council tightened sanctions against North Korea in response to Pyongyang’s second nuclear test. Since then North Korea has refused even to engage in substantive discussions.
Bosworth said that he urged the North Koreans not to set off a third nuclear test. In addition, he told them that their newly revealed uranium enrichment program will have to be included in any future disarmament talks.
North Korea’s existing nuclear devices are thought to be produced with plutonium as their fissile cores. The plutonium came from reprocessing spent fuel rods from a nuclear power reactor.
The US has long suspected that North Korea also had a uranium enrichment program, giving them two ways to produce fissile material. That was confirmed this fall, when Pyongyang announced that it had completed a first phase of uranium enrichment.
“They put it on the agenda,” said Bosworth, by publicly announcing its existence.
12/17/2009 (12/16/2009 EST)
By Peter Grier
Washington - The US envoy who traveled to Pyongyang for the Obama administration’s first high-level talks with North Korea did not get to meet Kim Jong Il, the mercurial North Korean leader.
But he says that he’s not offended. After all, only two American officials have met Kim Jong Il, ever. And those were Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and ex-President Bill Clinton.
“He does not meet with a lot of people. He meets with non-North Koreans very rarely,” said US Special Representative for North Korea Policy Stephen Bosworth at a Dec. 16 briefing for reporters.
Ambassador Bosworth would not confirm news reports that he carried a personal letter from President Obama to North Korea’s leader.
“I was the message,” said Bosworth.
Glimpse of a better future?
The main point of the message was that the relationship between North Korea and the US, and between North Korea and its East Asian neighbors, could be very different, and more positive, than it is today.
Of course, that is “provided that North Korea proceeds down this road to denuclearization,” said the US envoy.
North Korean officials agreed with him on the need to restart stalled six-party talks involving the United States, North Korea, China, Japan, Russia, and South Korea. But they did not set a time when they might return to the negotiating table.
In 2005, North Korea promised to begin dismantling its nuclear efforts in exchange for aid and political concessions. But that was the high point. Negotiations deadlocked shortly thereafter.
US message: don't test again
This June, the UN Security Council tightened sanctions against North Korea in response to Pyongyang’s second nuclear test. Since then North Korea has refused even to engage in substantive discussions.
Bosworth said that he urged the North Koreans not to set off a third nuclear test. In addition, he told them that their newly revealed uranium enrichment program will have to be included in any future disarmament talks.
North Korea’s existing nuclear devices are thought to be produced with plutonium as their fissile cores. The plutonium came from reprocessing spent fuel rods from a nuclear power reactor.
The US has long suspected that North Korea also had a uranium enrichment program, giving them two ways to produce fissile material. That was confirmed this fall, when Pyongyang announced that it had completed a first phase of uranium enrichment.
“They put it on the agenda,” said Bosworth, by publicly announcing its existence.
Obama sends letter to North Korea's Kim, no moves on talks
Reuters
12/16/2009 EST
WASHINGTON - President Barack Obama has written a personal letter to North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, a U.S. official said on Wednesday, but Washington's envoy offered no sign of progress in persuading Pyongyang to return to nuclear disarmament talks.
The letter was delivered by U.S. special envoy Stephen Bosworth during his three-day trip to North Korea last week. A U.S. official confirmed the letter was sent but would not discuss its contents.
Asked about the letter, Bosworth declined to comment, saying only that "I was the message" and that he had carried no letter back from Pyongyang and had not discussed the idea of him meeting with the North Koreans a second time.
"I was conveying very directly to the North Korean leadership a vision for the future which would be a lot different than the present or the past," he told a news conference in Washington.
On offer for North Korea was improved relations with the United States and the North's Asian neighbors if Pyongyang follows through on denuclearization pledges made in earlier rounds of six-party nuclear negotiations.
North Korea hinted on Friday following the talks with Bosworth that it could end its year-long boycott of the six-party nuclear negotiations with the United States, China, Japan, Russia and South Korea.
Bosworth told reporters, however, that while North Korea said it recognized the importance of the six-party process, Pyongyang had made no commitment to return to talks and further consultations among the parties would be needed.
It was unclear whether the North had made a decision to shed its nuclear weapons programs, Bosworth said.
"I am unable to say whether they've made that strategic decision or they've not made that strategic decision," he said.
Bosworth's meetings capped months of maneuvering to reduce tensions after North Korea test-fired missiles and set off a nuclear device, triggering U.N. sanctions.
It is relatively rare for a U.S. president to send a personal letter to the North Korean leader, though President George W. Bush sent one to Kim in December 2007. Bush's letter raised the possibility of normalized relations in exchange for North Korea's full disclosure of its nuclear programs.
12/16/2009 EST
WASHINGTON - President Barack Obama has written a personal letter to North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, a U.S. official said on Wednesday, but Washington's envoy offered no sign of progress in persuading Pyongyang to return to nuclear disarmament talks.
The letter was delivered by U.S. special envoy Stephen Bosworth during his three-day trip to North Korea last week. A U.S. official confirmed the letter was sent but would not discuss its contents.
Asked about the letter, Bosworth declined to comment, saying only that "I was the message" and that he had carried no letter back from Pyongyang and had not discussed the idea of him meeting with the North Koreans a second time.
"I was conveying very directly to the North Korean leadership a vision for the future which would be a lot different than the present or the past," he told a news conference in Washington.
On offer for North Korea was improved relations with the United States and the North's Asian neighbors if Pyongyang follows through on denuclearization pledges made in earlier rounds of six-party nuclear negotiations.
North Korea hinted on Friday following the talks with Bosworth that it could end its year-long boycott of the six-party nuclear negotiations with the United States, China, Japan, Russia and South Korea.
Bosworth told reporters, however, that while North Korea said it recognized the importance of the six-party process, Pyongyang had made no commitment to return to talks and further consultations among the parties would be needed.
It was unclear whether the North had made a decision to shed its nuclear weapons programs, Bosworth said.
"I am unable to say whether they've made that strategic decision or they've not made that strategic decision," he said.
Bosworth's meetings capped months of maneuvering to reduce tensions after North Korea test-fired missiles and set off a nuclear device, triggering U.N. sanctions.
It is relatively rare for a U.S. president to send a personal letter to the North Korean leader, though President George W. Bush sent one to Kim in December 2007. Bush's letter raised the possibility of normalized relations in exchange for North Korea's full disclosure of its nuclear programs.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Group Sues North Korea for Its Support to Terrorist Attack in 1972
A group called Shurat HaDin has filed a suit against North Korea in a U.S. district court in San Juan, Puerto Rico. The suit charges North Korea of supporting the 1972 terrorist attack on Lod Airport.
During the assault on Lod Airport, 26 people were killed and 80 others were injured by the attackers alleged to have been trained by North Korea. The attack was attributed to the Japanese Red Army and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.
This is the first time North Korea is being held to account in a U.S. court for its support of terrorism.
Group sues North Korea for 1972 terror attack
World Tribune
12/02/2009
WASHINGTON — Families of victims have filed suit against North Korea on charges of supporting a major attack by the Japanese Red Army in Israel.
The group, Shurat HaDin, has filed a suit in a U.S. district court in San Juan, Puerto Rico for the families of the victims of the 1972 attack.
During the assault on Lod Airport, 26 people were killed and 80 others were injured by attackers alleged to have been trained by North Korea. The attack was attributed to the Japanese Red Army and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.
"This will be the first time North Korea is being held to account in a U.S. court for its support of terrorism over many decades," Shurat HaDin said on Dec. 1.
Most of the victims in the 1972 shooting were Catholic pilgrims from Puerto Rico who had come to visit the Holy Land for the first time. The court complaint alleged that Pyongyang had trained and financed the three attackers, who used automatic weapons, ammunition and grenades. Two of the three attackers were killed and the third was captured and sentenced to prison in Israel.
"North Korea was behind the attack," Shurat HaDin said. "As the trial will show incontrovertibly, in the months leading up to the massacre the leaders of the JRA and PFLP met each other and with North Korean officials, who provided funding, intelligence, training, and other material support for the terrorists."
The trial was scheduled to begin on Dec. 3 in the U.S. federal district court in San Juan. The plaintiffs have argued that North Korea supported JRA's plan to target Israel as part of its campaign to promote communist revolution.
North Korea, removed from the State Department's list of terrorist sponsors in 2008, has been identified as a leading weapons supplier to Iran and Syria. Israel has asserted that Pyongyang helped build the huge underground network for Hizbullah in southern Lebanon. Shurat HaDin has filed two other lawsuits against North Korea.
"It is widely known that one of the world's most oppressive regimes [North Korea] is also a consistent support of terrorism, including providing weaponry, training bases, and funding for Palestinian terrorist organizations," Shurat HaDin said.
During the assault on Lod Airport, 26 people were killed and 80 others were injured by the attackers alleged to have been trained by North Korea. The attack was attributed to the Japanese Red Army and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.
This is the first time North Korea is being held to account in a U.S. court for its support of terrorism.
Group sues North Korea for 1972 terror attack
World Tribune
12/02/2009
WASHINGTON — Families of victims have filed suit against North Korea on charges of supporting a major attack by the Japanese Red Army in Israel.
The group, Shurat HaDin, has filed a suit in a U.S. district court in San Juan, Puerto Rico for the families of the victims of the 1972 attack.
During the assault on Lod Airport, 26 people were killed and 80 others were injured by attackers alleged to have been trained by North Korea. The attack was attributed to the Japanese Red Army and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.
"This will be the first time North Korea is being held to account in a U.S. court for its support of terrorism over many decades," Shurat HaDin said on Dec. 1.
Most of the victims in the 1972 shooting were Catholic pilgrims from Puerto Rico who had come to visit the Holy Land for the first time. The court complaint alleged that Pyongyang had trained and financed the three attackers, who used automatic weapons, ammunition and grenades. Two of the three attackers were killed and the third was captured and sentenced to prison in Israel.
"North Korea was behind the attack," Shurat HaDin said. "As the trial will show incontrovertibly, in the months leading up to the massacre the leaders of the JRA and PFLP met each other and with North Korean officials, who provided funding, intelligence, training, and other material support for the terrorists."
The trial was scheduled to begin on Dec. 3 in the U.S. federal district court in San Juan. The plaintiffs have argued that North Korea supported JRA's plan to target Israel as part of its campaign to promote communist revolution.
North Korea, removed from the State Department's list of terrorist sponsors in 2008, has been identified as a leading weapons supplier to Iran and Syria. Israel has asserted that Pyongyang helped build the huge underground network for Hizbullah in southern Lebanon. Shurat HaDin has filed two other lawsuits against North Korea.
"It is widely known that one of the world's most oppressive regimes [North Korea] is also a consistent support of terrorism, including providing weaponry, training bases, and funding for Palestinian terrorist organizations," Shurat HaDin said.
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