Disclaimers on Views/Information Contained in this Blog
Disclaimers on Views/Information Contained in thie Blog
- The opinions expressed on this blog are those of the author's (or the author(s) of the original articles), and do not reflect, in any shape, way, or form, the official policy or position of the author's employer (current or former) or any other organization.
- Information contained on this blog is entirely derived from unclassified open source information, and is based exclusively on the content and behavior of selected media.
- Please note that some of the postings will provide only information with no comments or analysis while other postings will have comments and/or analysis.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Ensuring the survival of the regime
1. Article 3: "The DPRK considers the Juche idea and Songun (military-first) idea, which are a man-centered worldview and a revolutionary idea for achieving the popular masses' independence, to be the guiding principle of its activities."
2. Article 8: "The social institution of the DPRK is a man-centered social institution where the masses of working people are masters of everything, and everything in society serves the masses of working people. The state shall protect and preserve the interests and protect the human rights of the working people, including workers, farmers, soldiers, working intellectuals, who were emancipated from exploitation and oppression and have become the masters of the state and society."
Analysis:
The term songun (military-first) has been added to Article 3, signifying the importance of the North Korean military in overall political structure of the country. The addition of the word songun essentially elevated the military-first ideology to the same level as Kim Il-sung's juche ideology. In Article 8, the word soldiers has been added to the list of population segments whose rights are guaranteed by the state. These changes further show Kim Jong-il regime's power base is the military and the military loyal to Kim Jong-il is what will sustain and keep the regime stable, both now and through the succession process.
Also in Article 8, the new constitution mentions, for the first time, that "the state shall protect and preserve the human rights of the working people..." It is probably safe to say that no one, to include those in North Korea, actually believes this change is nothing more than just words. These words, however, do play a significant role in politics external to North Korea. North Korea's abysmal human rights record has been one of the favorite issues the international community would hold over North Korea to, in the minds of the North Korean strategists, unfairly repress North Korea and threaten its sovereignty. This change seems to be a sort of a preemptive strike at the international community to counter the world's criticism. Of course, the North will undoubtedly point to this and tout it as one of the significant changes it has implemented to become a responsible member of the international community in any and all future negotiations (whether the bilateral or multi-lateral).
3. Article 29: "Socialism is built by the creative labor of the working masses. ..."
4. Artile 40: "The DPRK shall thoroughly carry out the cultural revolution and, thus, make all people socialist builders who have profound knowledge of nature and society and a high cultural and technical level, and intellectualize all of society."
Analysis:
Perhaps one of the most significant change to the North Korean constitution is that the word Communism was dropped from its constitution all together, as seen in Articles 29 and 40. It is certainly possible that Kim Jong-il has finally admitted to the fact that Communism, with its accompanying centrally planned economic system just is not going to help it get out of the economic quagmire it is in, and that Kim wants to distance himself and North Korea from the economic system of the Communist world, past and present.
Another possible reason is that the dropping of the word Communism was aimed at China - a prod at the Chinese and those among the North Korean elites who are of the opinion that North Korea should emulate China's economic reform policies.
Yet another possibility is that it was a strategy designed to appeal to the US and other Western powers (the West) in order to gain more favorable position in its future negotiations rather than an earnest desire to abandon the Communist ideology - particularly since North Korea is not truly a Communist country to begin with. So what does dropping the term Communism have to do with negotiating with the West? We would contend that there are a lot of people who came of age during the Cold War who are in positions of power in the governments in the West, and the words like Communism and Communist are still met with almost an allergy-like reaction of repulsion. We also contend that North Korea, through its shrewd observation of the world affairs, understands this very well. It has also observed that much of the West European countries practice socialism of varying degrees. Therefore, by dropping the word Communism and aligning itself as a socialist country, North Korea can claim that it is nothing more than another socialist that deserves to be treated as equals by the governments of the West as they would treat each other.
Inclusion of the term human rights and deletion of Communism from its constitution seems to be a carefully calculated strategic move that are designed to potentially provide North Korea some political capital in future dealings with the international community.
5. Article 100: "The chairman of the National Defense Commission (NDC) is the supreme leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK)."
Analysis:
Article 100 not only codifies the role of Kim Jong-il as the supreme leader of North Korea, but it solidifies the role of the military as the central power of the North Korean political apparatus. Along with the changes in Article 3 and 8, this clearly shows Kim Jong-il's move to ensure the survival of the current regime.
Another significance is that this constitutional establishment of supreme leadership position seems to be similar to the changes Kim Il-sung made in 1972 - when Kim Il-sung was laying the groundwork for te succession on Kim Jong-il. In fact, much of the language used in the latest constitution to describe the responsibilities of the NDC chairman seems to be taken directly from clauses of the 1972 constitution.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Korean Peninsula Today, 25 September 2009
- The US Deputy Secretary of State Steinberg is scheduled to arrive in South Korea next Tuesday (29 September)
- The US President Obama calls for full implementation of UNSC resolutions sanctioning North Korean for its nuclear program
- The South Korean President Lee and the Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama reaffirmed the necessity of maintaining current international penalties on North Korea while urging the North to return to the Six-Party Talks
- The British Prime Minister Brown warned North Korea it will face further sanctions should it fails to comply with UN demands regarding its nuclear program
- A group of conservative South Korean activist organizations sent a letter to the Chinese President Hu Jintao appealing for his government to stop repatriating North Korean defectors
- A group of nine North Koreans entered the Danish Embassy in Hanoi, Vietnam, seeking political asylum and passage to Seoul, South Korea
Poster with the successor's name sighted
A photojournalist who goes by the handle hanming_huang took this photo and posted to Flickr. The photo is of a public propaganda poster in North Korea praising Kim Jong-il's third son and heir apparent, Kim Jong Un. According to the metadata of the photo, it was apparently taken in Wonsan, North Korea, on 18 September and posted to Flickr on 22 September.There have been reports of posters like the one hanming_huang posted appearing throughout North Korea for the past few months, but this seems to be the first actual photo of one seen outside of the country. The poster has the words to the song Footsteps at the bottom. Footsteps reportedly is a song used to buildup Kim Jong Un's cult of personality.
The appearance of this poster comes in the wake of recent conflicting media reports regarding the issue of succession.
- A Yonhap News report confirming Kim Jong Un's designation as the successor dated 13 September
- A Kyodo News report citing Kim Yong Nam, president of the Presidium of North Korea's Supreme People's Assembly, denying any succession process is ongoing in North Korea dated 10 September
- A Foreign Policy report stating documents obtained by Mainichi Shimbun seems to confirm Kim Jong Un as the heir apparent dated 09 September
- A Daily NK report explaining the reasons for the succession process being halted dated 09 September
- A Daily NK report claiming the succession process has been halted dated 08 September
- An AFP report stating Kim Jong-il has suspended the succession process dated 05 September
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Asia News Brief for 24 September 2009
- U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the Obama administration will engage (Reuters) in direct, high-level negotiations with the military junta of Myanmar. Clinton, speaking at the United Nations, said U.S. sanctions on Myanmar would remain in place, but that the United States would push the Asian state to implement democratic reforms.
- Foreign Policy reports on the growing problem of electronic waste in China.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Asia News Brief for 23 September 2009
- Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama told the UN climate change summit that Japan will make a 25 percent cut (Japan Today) in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels by 2020. Hatoyama also said Japan can provide financial and technical support for developing countries to reduce emissions.
- Maj. Gen. Nyan Win, Myanmar's foreign minister, quietly visited Washington late last week, the Washington Post reports. Nyan Win met with members of Myanmar's embassy, a U.S.-Asian business council and Sen. James Webb (D-VA). It was the first visit of a foreign minister from Myanmar in nine years.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Northeast Asia News Brief for 21 September 2009
- An international piracy monitoring agency, the Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia, says piracy in the South China Sea has hit a five-year high (Xinhua) so far this year. In the latest such attack, on Saturday, six pirates robbed the crew (BBC) of a tanker off Indonesia.
- Newsweek and Foreign Policy reported China has been hoarding minerals needed for the development of green technologies.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
US Department of State Daily Press Briefing Summary for September 16 (17th here in Korea)
JAPAN
- U.S. congratulates the Democratic Party of Japan leader Yukio Hatoyama on his appointment to Prime Minister in Japan
- U.S. looks forward to talking to the new government
- Government of Japan has to make its own decisions based on its own national interests
- Assistant Secretary for East Asia and Pacific Affairs Campbell will be in Japan tomorrow (17 September)
- Government of Japan to determine what kind of contribution they want to make to the war in Afghanistan
NORTH KOREA
- Secretary Clinton has no plans to meet with North Korea at UNGA
- Bilateral talks would have to be in the context of our multilateral forum Six-Party Talks
- John Podesta was in NK in a private capacity and had no message from the administration
- U.S. focus is on restarting this multilateral context and the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula
Turkmenistan-China pipeline to open in December
President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov said in a nationally televised address that the gas pipeline, for which work started in 2007, would be inaugurated on December 15.
China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) has signed a 30 year accord to import up to 30 billion cubic metres of gas a year through the pipeline.
China has signed several major deals to get new energy imports from Central Asia.
Source: AFP
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Korean Peninsula Today, 09 September 2009
- US State Department's announcement it is blacklisting the General Bureau of Atomic Energy (GBAE) and the Korea Tangun Trading Corp., both of which were designated by the United Nations in July for their involvement in North Korea's WMD programs under Security Council Resolution 1874.
- A meeting between Grigory Longvinov of Russia and Hwang Joon-kook of South Korea, and a meeting between Longvinov and Sung Kim of the US in Seoul to discuss denuclearization of North Korea.
- Stephen Bosworth’s statement the US will consider over the next few weeks on how to respond to North Korea's eagerness to hold bilateral talks, but the US will not consider any bilateral talks with North Korea to be a substitute for the Six-Party Talks.
- South Korea’s demand for an apology and a further explanation from North Korea over a sudden discharge of dam water that left six people dead or missing, saying the North's response was not satisfactory.
- Israel’s offer to assist South Korea in protecting itself against North Korea’s ballistic missile threat.
Northeast Asia News Brief for 08 September 2009
Taiwanese Premier Liu Chao-shiuan resigned amid heavy criticism (Taipei Times) of the government's slow response to last month's Typhoon Morakot, which devastated parts of the country and killed at least six hundred people. Wu Den-yih, the secretary general of Taiwan's ruling Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), will replace Liu (CNN).
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Russian Military Chief Says S-400s Deployed Over Korea Missile Tests
"We have an S-400 division there," said General Nikolai Makarov, chief of staff of the Russian armed forces, confirming that Russia had deployed its most advanced anti-missile defence system near the border with North Korea.
"We are indeed worried about the way testing, including tests of nuclear devices, is being conducted in North Korea," said Makarov, who was accompanying President Dmitry Medvedev on a visit to Mongolia.
"This is happening very close to Russia's borders. We will take certain steps to guard against the possibility of a missile falling" on Russian territory, he told journalists in the Mongolian capital.
In addition to deployment of the S-400 unit, Makarov said Russian defence chiefs were weighing further steps to make sure no North Korean missiles, or pieces of missiles, landed in Russian territory.
"We are now reviewing what more effective steps can be taken to guarantee no rocket fragments fall in the event of a faulty launch."
Editorial: US, PRC Maneuvers Post-Morakot
Ma probably thought criticism of his government's weak disaster relief effort would blow over in a couple of days; instead, his inaction prompted the US to take action. When US transport aircraft and minesweeping helicopters appeared over Taiwan, the USS George Washington, an aircraft carrier from the US' Seventh Fleet, wasn't far away. As if expecting something big to happen, international media scrambled to Taiwan.
There is an international aspect to the flood disaster, and it begins with China.
On Aug. 11, China launched its largest military exercise to date. The exercise mobilized forces in the Shenyang, Jinan, Guangzhou and Lanzhou military regions for almost two months, and it took place near disputed areas, such as near the border with North Korea, Afghanistan and in the South China Sea. It included paratroopers, simulated warfare in complex electromagnetic environments, the Beidou Satellite Positioning System and civilian aircraft. The whole exercise was reminiscent of a preparatory blitzkrieg exercise. This prompted the USS George Washington to move into position: On Aug. 10, it left its home port in Yokosuka, Japan, for its first visit to Manila in 13 years. In San Diego, California, the USS Nimitz set out on a westward journey.
As the US and China were involved in polite formulaic exchanges, one unusual incident after another took place in Taiwan. At the height of the onslaught of Typhoon Morakot on Aug. 8, the former chief of the general staff left on a visit to Beijing; on Aug. 9, an undersea optical cable just off Taiwan was severed in five places, and the US military's Asia Pacific command offered to help Taiwan with disaster relief — not once, but twice. On Aug. 10, several countries offered Taiwan assistance.
However, according to reliable sources, the representatives of the Presidential Office, the Cabinet and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) met and decided to accept Chinese assistance instead. On Aug. 11, the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) exercise began and Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued an urgent telegram rejecting foreign material aid and rescue teams. On Aug. 12, an underwater optical cable was again severed, this time in six places, China rejected a visit to Hong Kong by a Japanese navy vessel, and Premier Liu Chao-shiuan said Taiwan was not rejecting foreign aid, signaling a change in situation. On Aug. 14, US Agency for International Development staff arrived in Taiwan, PLA Major-General Luo Yuan said Taiwan should review its relationship with the US before a cross-strait military confidence-building mechanism was established, and Ma called a meeting of the National Security Council. On Aug. 15, a US C-130 aircraft arrived in Taiwan. On Aug. 17, US helicopters landed in Taiwan and the US State Department rejected the notion that it had to inform China about its activities. On Aug. 18, China's Taiwan Affairs Office said Beijing was still willing to provide rescue helicopters. On Aug. 20, members of the US Congress traveled on a military aircraft to visit Taiwan. And on Monday, the USS Nimitz arrived at Yokosuka.
Regardless of the cause and intent, the Chinese military exercise, the USS George Washington moving into position in the Philippines, the multiple breaks on two separate instances of a Taiwanese undersea optical cable, the Taiwanese government issuing a "very urgent" telegram rejecting foreign aid, Ma's neglect of his responsibility as the commander-in-chief and his refusal to declare a state of emergency, the Ma administration's unthinkable continuous inaction during the height of the calamity and China's "timely" declaration of its attitude are enough to provide the PLA with a reason to come to Taiwan in the name of humanitarianism. From the perspective of the US-Japan Security Alliance, it could also marginalize the alliance and upset the balance of power that has existed in East Asia for the past 60 years.
Looking back at the first week after Morakot, even if the Ma administration has not been colluding with the Chinese government, its arrogance and public detachment, combined with its eagerness to push cross-strait relations, could still send the wrong message to the US, Japan and China and place Taiwan at risk. The US military's eagerness to show the flag in this situation is probably a practical matter of "preventive contact." Whether or not this really is what is going on, we will only know when classified files have been declassified some time in future.
Monday, August 24, 2009
North Korea's Funeral Diplomacy - glimer of hope or an oncoming train?

The State Funeral for the late Former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung was yesterday. Regardless of the different personal views the readers of this blog may have about the late President, we believe that everyone can agree that he was a true statesman and an internationally recognized leader.
Quite certain that a lot of people saw the memorial and funeral services via the television broadcast or the Internet. If not, most would have at least seen the photos of these events.
Needless to say that this is the first time the North had sent a delegation to pay respect to a late South Korean President. But wait, that is not all. The delegation even had a meeting with the sitting South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, and the South Korean Unification Minister Hyun In Taek on 23 and 22 August respectively. Reportedly, the North Korean delegation delivered a verbal message from Kim Jong-il to President Lee.
According to Chosun Ilbo, the meeting "led to a consensus between the South and the North on the principle that both sides need high-level government-level dialogue. But it remains to be seen when and at what level such dialogue will be held." According to the same report, President Lee reportedly told the North Korean delegates that the South is willing to talk at any time at any level, including a summit - which has been rebuffed by Cheong Wa Dae (the South Korean Presidential Office). In response, Cheong Wa Dae released a statement saying:
President Lee Myung-bak is fully prepared and ready to hold an inter-Korean summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il if conditions are met, but no such summit has been proposed by either side.
Whether or not substantive discussions occurred during the North-South meetings on the 22 and 23 August, it was significant that those meetings were the first high level inter-Korean governmental meeting that occurred since President Lee took office 18 months or so ago.
No one truly believes the inter-Korean relations will improve over night, and no one really believes this funeral diplomacy by the North is purely out of the goodness of Kim Jong-il's heart and humaness; however, one can't help but be cautiously optimistic. After all, no one really wants the situation to get worse.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
New US Ambassador to China Pushes Improved Ties (Chosun Ilbo)
Ambassador Jon Huntsman's 23-year-old daughter, Mary Anne, Saturday serenaded journalists with a Rachmaninoff etude. The Huntsman family had just arrived in Beijing less than 24 hours before, so this was her first time playing the grand piano in the ambassador's formal living room.
Huntsman said he is delighted to be in China -- in English and in Mandarin Chinese. He appeared before reporters with his wife, Mary Kaye, and three of their seven children. His two youngest daughters are adopted -- three year old Asha is from India and 10-year old Gracie May is from China.
The new U.S. ambassador acknowledged that in the past, the U.S.-China relationship has been plagued by differences over issues such as human rights.
"Sometimes, when we had difficulties and challenges, the relationship has come to a stop," he said. "And the work hasn't been able to get done. And that's not only unfortunate for people in the U.S. and China, but it's unfortunate for the people throughout the rest of Asia, all of whom depend on a good U.S.-China relationship."
He said he believes the U.S.-China relationship has to transcend the disagreements, which he stressed will always be there, and instead focus on shared interests.
"Specifically, when you look at energy and climate change, regional security and global economy, if we're going to tackle all of those successfully, by definition, we would have risen to new heights," said Huntsman.
Huntsman pointed out that 2009 marks the 30th anniversary of Sino-American ties.
He said U.S. President Barack Obama is set to visit China in November, and that he is confident that by the end of the year, the US-China relationship will be "stronger than ever before."
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Backgrounder on China-Pakistan Relations
Northeast Asia News Brief for 20 August 2009
North Korea-Richardson Meeting: A North Korean delegation met with New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson (Washington Post) in Santa Fe to demand that the United States engage in bilateral talks with the country. Richardson, who negotiated with Pyongyang in the 1990's, said he was not negotiating officially with the delegation, but was acting as "sort of a liaison."
China: Some thirteen hundred children living near a Chinese manganese factory in central Hunan province have lead contamination (Times of London). The factory, which has been shut down, had never faced any kind of environmental safety regulation since it's opening in May 2008.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Northeast Asia News Brief for 19 August 2009
North Korean Delegation to Attend Kim Dae-Jung's Funeral: North Korea is planning to send a delegation to the funeral of the former South Korean President Kim Dae-Jung (Yonhap). Separately, diplomats from North Korea planned to visit Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) today with an "undisclosed agenda," theNew York Times reports.
China: China reduced its holdings of U.S. government debt (Shanghai Daily) by more than 3 percent, or over $25 billion in June, according to new U.S. treasury data. China holds more U.S. debt than any other country.
China-Australia: PetroChina, China's largest energy company, signed a deal to buy $41 billion worth (China Daily)of Australian liquefied natural gas.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Former South Korean President Kim Dae-Jung: Major Biographic Ecents
Former South Korean President Kim Dae-Jung Passes

Sunday, August 16, 2009
The head of (North) Korea Asia-Pacific Peace Committee revealed

Yonhap Television News (YTN), reported during its 6 o'clock morning news today, citing “a North Korean media outlet,” that Kim Yang Gon, the head of the Unification Front Department (United Front Department) has been confirmed to be also serving as the Korea Asia-Pacific Peace Committee (KAPPC) on 16 August.
According to the report, KAPPC’s last known chairman was Kim Yong Sun, who died in October 2003, and the identity of succeeding KAPPC chairperson(s) had not been known since (for five years 10 months). The report also stated it is not known since when Kim Yang Gon has been serving as the chairman of KAPPC. Apparently Kim Yong Sun, the last known chairman of KAPPC also held a dual position as the head of the Unification Front Department during his tenure.
Sources told YTN Kim Yang Gon reportedly planned the visit of the Hyundai Group chairwoman Hyun Jung-eun’s visit to the North and personally oversaw the visit as the chairman of KAPPC during her visit.