China gives its "Thumbs Up" to Kim Jong-un?

According to the South Korean Yonhap News Agency, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's heir apparent son, Kim Jong-un, has been confirmed to be visiting China. The junior Kim arrived in Tumen, in the northeastern Chinese province of Jilin, early in the morning of Friday, 20 May (KST),  but his next destination has yet to be confirmed, the source in Tumen told Yonhap News Agency. The source asked not to be identified, citing the issue's sensitivity. Security has been tightened considerably in Tumen and areas linking the Chinese city with North Korean border, the source added. A ranking government official in Seoul said that the North's presumed heir may have certainly arrived in China considering circumstances observed so far, noting he is unlikely to travel to Beijing."We believe that Kim Jong-un arrived in China early this morning, though it will take more time to confirm the visit," said the Seoul official. "It remains to be seen whether he was traveling alone or together with Kim Jong-il. But it is believed thus far that he was visiting China alone. His final destination doesn't appear to be Beijing."

This would mark the first confirmed trip to China by Kim Jong-un since he has been named the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission and a four-star general in September 2010.  Apparently, this visit has been widely seen as China showing its seal of approval for Kim Jong-un as the next possible leader of North Korea.

Regional Update for 28 October

China/Taiwan-US: Taiwan will ask the United States to postpone the sale of two advanced weapons systems to save money, a senior legislator with ties to the military said on 28 October, Reuters reported.

Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: A decision to not spend money usually and obviously means that money will be saved. However, the timing of the announcement is propitious because it neutralizes temporarily an issue that might have blemished the US President's visit to India late next week. Taiwan will want something in return.

North Korea-Cuba: Chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army Vice Marshal Ri Yong Ho, left Pyongyang on 28 October to lead a delegation to Cuba, The Associated Press reported.

Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: Reports of a close relationship between North Korea and Cuba extend for decades in the past. They include allegations of large North Korean troop deployments to Cuba.

Nothing significant has ever been proven. Still the visits have continued. Cuba and North Korea share the distinction with Vietnam and Laos of being the last surviving Marxist-Leninist states.

China-Pakistan: Chinese Major General Yang Hui, director general of the Intelligence Directorate, visited Chief of Army Staff General Kayani at General Headquarters on 28 October, Associated Press of Pakistan reported. The two discussed matters of professional interest, according to Pakistan's Inter Services Public Relations.

Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: A visit by a Chinese intelligence general to Pakistan usually signifies a problem. The usual problem is that Pakistan is harboring, aiding, training and abetting anti-Han Chinese Islamic terrorists in the 42 terrorist camps that Pakistani intelligence sustains in Pakistani Kashmir.

Chinese intelligence officials seldom visit unless there is a problem. The Chinese do not seem concerned that Pakistani-trained terrorists kill Indians or Americans, but they do object to Pakistan providing or tolerating training of Xinjiang Uighurs who want to kill Han Chinese.

Regional Update for 26 October

North Korea: Update. The United States will lead the United Nations Command in a round of colonel-level talks with North Korea at the border village of Panmunjom on 27 October, a military source said, Yonhap reported.

China-Japan: Update. Chinese protesters held an anti-Japanese demonstration near the Japanese Consulate in Chongqing, China, on the 26th . A consulate official said between 1,000 and 2,000 people gathered, including onlookers, and consular security was strengthened and plainclothes police were present. Another witness said the protesters chanted slogans about the disputed Senkaku islands.

China-Southeast Asia: Mainichi reported last week that commercial satellite imagery detected one and possibly two Type 093 nuclear-powered attack submarines docked at a Chinese navy base in Sanya, Hainan Island, in the South China Sea. The image was taken in early September.

In 2008, a Type 094 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine was detected at Sanya, but is not assessed to be based there.

Comment by our friends at KGS NightWatch: China is building and basing submarines to enforce its maritime claims in the East and South China Seas. Experts rate the technology in the Type 093 as a generation or more behind the US, but it is better than anything in the navies of the Southeast Asian states that dispute China's sea claims.

Regional Update for 25 October

Japan-China: The Japanese government formally protested to the Chinese government on 25 October the presence of Chinese patrol boats near the Senkaku Islands. Japanese authorities detected two Chinese patrol boats late Sunday in Japan's "contiguous zone" but did not cross into Japanese territorial waters, Kyodo reported, citing Japan's coast guard.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku said in the protest message that seeing Chinese patrol boats made his government feel "uncomfortable. He also said that Japan will step up its monitoring activities around the Islands, according to Kyodo.

China's foreign ministry claimed that its boats' patrols are both legal and based on need.

Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: Mainstream international press did not report the Chinese patrol boat activity nor at least three more anti-Japanese protests and demonstrations over the weekend. The confrontation over the Senkakus continues.

South Korea-US: For the record. A Pentagon spokesman today rejected claims by South Korean media that a planned U.S.-South Korea naval exercise had been postponed due to Chinese protests, Reuters reported. The spokesman told reporters that authorities in Washington and in Seoul were unable to reach a scheduling agreement, adding the exercises were intended to send a message to North Korea and should not be China's concern.

Comment from our friends at KGS NightWatch: The comment by the spokesman misses the point that the North has moved closer to China during the succession period than at any time since the government of Deng Xiaoping in the early 1980s. The US is much less significant than it was a year ago in North Korea's strategic calculations. Since China agreed to assume overwatch responsibility for the Kim regime this year, the Allies have succeeded in sending no significant "messages" to North Korea.

Regional Update for 24 October

South Korea and the United States have canceled the planned combined naval exercise in the West Sea (Yellow Sea) scheduled for late October, South Korean state-run broadcaster KBS reported on 24 October, citing a senior South Korean official.


The decision was made in order to avoid irritating neighboring countries (really one neighboring country – China) and to improve conditions for the G20 Summit in Seoul on 11 and 12 November, Yonhap reported, citing another unnamed government source. The US aircraft carrier USS George Washington is unlikely to participate in any other combined exercises with South Korea in 2010, and the two allies will also delay the large-scale amphibious landing exercises planned for late October.

Comment (This comment is based exclusively on open source information which always is incomplete.): The cancellation appears to be a gratuitous conciliatory gesture to China to ensure its participation in the economic summit, where it is expected to be generally uncooperative, by some analysts.


The concern is that this is the second major security issue in Asia in which the US appears to have deferred to China's sensibilities, rather than assert the prerogatives of a great power.
 This cancellation would appear to negate all the brave language US spokesman have used to assert allied solidarity in confronting North Korea' aggression in sinking the South Korean corvette, Cheonan, in March. In the perception of the international community, the US backed down every time China protested the scheduling of joint exercises aimed at North Korea.


After seven months, North Korea still has gotten away with sinking an Allied patrol ship.


The second issue was the Chinese reaction to Japan's arrest of a Chinese fishing boat and crew in the Senkakus after the Chinese boat rammed a Japanese patrol boat. Only the Secretary of State stood with the Japanese against China. The rest of the US administration did not and has not.


Pro-US leaders in Asia are well advised to remember 2010 as a pivotal year for reassessing the dominant power in Asia.

Regional Update for October 22

Following update from our friends at KGS NightWatch

South Korea-North Korea: A report to the UN Secretary General indicated North Korea is in danger of another food crisis this winter because of poor harvests. Nevertheless, a South Korean Unification Ministry spokesman reaffirmed the Lee government policy of not providing large scale food aid to North Korea, regardless of need unless and until the political atmosphere improves.

The government in Seoul will continue to approve private humanitarian relief, such a recent shipment of 5,000 tons of rice and other supplies for flood victims.

Comment from KGS NightWatch: The South still wants the North to apologize for the sinking of its patrol ship last March. Prior to 2008 and the South's election of the hard line Lee administration, the South annually provided 400,000 tons of rice and 300,000 tons of fertilizer to the North.

North Korea-China: For the record. Vice Chairman of China's Central Military Commission Gua Boxiong will lead a delegation of senior Chinese military officers to North Korea on 23 October, according to the Ministry of National Defense, Xinhua reported on 22 October. The delegation will attend activities to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the entry of the Chinese People's Volunteers into the Korean front and meet with the North's military leaders to discuss issues of mutual concern, said Chinese spokesman Geng Yansheng.

China: Update. Tibetan language demonstrations spread in northwestern China, as students in Tsolho and Golog prefectures demanded the right to study in their language, according to Free Tibet and Agence France-Presse. Some 2,000 students marched to the local government building in Chabcha, chanting demands for Tibetan language freedoms. Police and teachers turned them away. The Dawu police restricted movement of local residents following student protests in the area.

Comment from KGS NightWatch: This is a minor outbreak of unrest but it continues to showcase the Han Chinese policy of forced assimilation of minorities.

US-China-India: President Obama will visit India between 6 and 9 November. The forthcoming trip has generated significant unease in China about US strategy in Asia.

Since Thursday, a half dozen or more Chinese newspapers and strategists have complained about the US relationship with India. A National Defense University official wrote, "India's goals of becoming a global power cannot be realized by just following the US. This writer accused the US of "building a strategic fence" with Japan and South Korea as the backbone and a carapace of India, Vietnam and other nations having territorial disputes with China.

This official wrote, "India's politicians should be aware that as the two weaker sides of a triangular relationship, it is very important for India and China to maintain stability to prevent the US from profiting from their disputes….The US fence around China is weak but could become an iron wall if China makes strategic mistakes."

Earlier, a Chinese air force colonel wrote about a crescent ring encircling China from Japan to Afghanistan. A professor at Beijing University's School of International Studies said, "If you look around Asia and see what the US is doing, it is not surprising and difficult to understand America's needs in South Asia."

A Fudan University analyst wrote in the China Daily that India and China are made for each other but must guard against western elements. "Some Indian media raised a hue and cry over so-called 'border invasion' by China last year and the recent suspension of bilateral military exchanges,'' said the commentary."Some Western countries and media are trying to use this to drive a wedge between the two neighbors."

Comment from KGS NightWatch: These two ancient cultures have had no significant interaction until modern times. But for colonial era land disputes, they are not natural enemies. However, their aspirations for world power stature have converted them into at least strategic competitors, sometime rivals and potential enemies.


China's rise to great power stature impedes India's dominance in South Asia. China has developed proxies or allies on every Indian border, which undercuts the credibility of its complaints about encirclement. China has spurred India to look to its strategic space in South Asia and to increase security cooperation with East Asia powers with which it has never had significant interaction … before the rise of China.


It is curious that Chinese international affairs commentators evince so much insecurity, for a country that considers itself the equal in many areas of the United States and has become so aggressive in asserting its right to be the leader of Asia.

Comments from the Author of the Blog: For a country that speaks of peace so often, everything from its official government positions to academic papers its scholars publish, it sure seems that its government, its military, and a significant portion of its academia look upon the world through the lens of realism - the theory where peace could only be achieved by either becoming the dominant power or by balancing against the dominant power...the things that make you go hmmm...... 

India-Pakistan: Indian Army Chief of the Army Staff General V K Singh said on 22 October that interceptions and border monitoring reports have indicated that there are 500 to 600 militants on the Pakistani side of the Line of Control preparing to infiltrate India's state of Jammu and Kashmir, The Times of India reported.

Intelligence inpurts indicate the leadership of Hizbul Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami and Jaish-e-Mohammed have conducted reconnaissance along the Line of Control in advance of infiltration operations. General Singh reported there are teams of eight to nine who are trying to cross the border every day.

Singh also said the anti-India terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan is intact and 42 camps are being run, including newly created camps in Pakistani Kashmir. Infiltration has risen in late summer, as it seasonally does. The Indian Army recorded 10 infiltration incidents in June, six in July and 33 in August.

General Singh judged that about 20-25 infiltration attempts succeeded, which is indicated by the fact that 12 to 15 terrorists were killed in the last 15-20 days. "This shows people have come from somewhere," he said. He concluded that Pakistan perceives Kashmir as an "unfinished agenda.

Comment from KGS NightWatch: Infiltration from Pakistan into Indian Kashmir always increases before winter. The number of Kashmiri militant camps is as high as it has been in the past ten years. This means the progress in reducing the number of camps under Musharraf has been reversed. The camps and the infiltration infrastructure into Kashmir cannot exist without official Pakistani government support.


Even allowing for an anti-Pakistani bias, General Singh's account of conditions along the Line of Control is consistent with autumn conditions in past years. His statements are a reminder that Pakistan remains a state sponsor of terror and continues to use terror as an instrument of state policy against India.

Regional Update for September 13

New Zealand-China: A Chinese naval training ship and a frigate arrived in Auckland, New Zealand on 11 September for a four-day visit, New Zealand and Chinese press reported. Chinese Rear Admiral Leng said the visit was part of efforts to construct a harmonious world and a harmonious ocean. He added that it was also conducive to improving the level of military cooperation between the two countries.

New Zealand is the fourth stop on the Chinese Navy ships' itinerary, which has included calls at Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu and Tonga, and will take them to Australia next.

Japan-China: Update. A Chinese government law enforcement ship on 11 September asked a Japanese coast guard survey ship operating in Japan's exclusive economic zone to stop its activities, according to coast guard officials.

The encounter occurred about 280 kilometers (173 miles) north-northwest off Okinawa Island. The Japanese ship continued surveying operations for nearly two more hours. Japan later delivered an official complaint to China. The Japanese will not back down from the Chinese, with our without US encouragement.

South Korea-North Korea: Update. South Korea announced today , 13 September, that is will provide aid to North Korea, but repeated that the government in Pyongyang was responsible for the sinking of the South Korean corvette Cheonan in March.

Over the weekend, the North offered to resume reunions of families divided by the Korean War's outcome. None have occurred in over a year.

It also accepted the South Korean Red Cross' offer of $8.3 million in aid, which includes 5,000 tones of rice, 10,000 tons of cement and 3 million packs of instant noodles. Red Cross chief Yoo Chong-ha said the South Korean government is the main financier of the aid.

According to Red Cross figures, about 80,000 elderly South Koreans seek a brief meeting with family left in the North after the war.

Comments from KGS NightWatch: The apparent peace offensive is almost certainly camouflage to obscure the North's failure to convene the 3rd Party Conference. The overtures have no significance except to prolong a benign strategic environment, while the North's leaders sort out their next step.

North Korea: The South Korean television channel YTN reported the 3rd Party Conference has been delayed because of the health of leader Kim Jong-il. Unidentified South Korean intelligence officials supposedly told the station that Kim's health worsened after his five-day trip to northeast China late last month.

The station's report said the Conference would likely be held soon since the 68-year-old's health was not bad enough to warrant a cancellation.

Comments from KGS NightWatch: Our assessment is that Kim's health has been so poor that he is non compos mentis most of the time, except after dialysis, which well-informed observers say occurs thrice weekly. We also judge he has so many body doubles and it is sometime difficult to distinguish them - presumably the Chinese experts on Korea could identify the real Kim from a double.

The Conference does not seem to have taken place yet, which North and South Korean media blame on the exertions of Kim's trip to China. The subtext is the Chinese are to blame for the Dear Leader's present infirmity. There is no way to know who went to China or what was accomplished. The North has raised its shroud of obscurity and might declare the Conference a success tomorrow!

Regional Update for September 10

Japan-China: The captain of a Chinese fishing boat was taken to a Japanese court on Ishigaki Island in Okinawa Prefecture on 10 September. Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi demanded the "immediate and unconditional" release of the captain and other crewmembers, according to news relays.


Yang summoned Japanese Ambassador to China Uichiro Niwa to lodge a third protest with Tokyo over what the Chinese Foreign Ministry described as an "illegal detention." Yang told Niwa that Beijing is determined to defend Chinese sovereignty of the Diaoyu Islands, where the ramming incident occurred, and demanded the unconditional release of the boat and crew, according to the ministry

Japan asserts the incident occurred in Japanese territorial waters and that Japan is handling the case in line with domestic law, Niwa told the Chinese. On 10 September a Japanese court ruled that prosecutors can detain the captain of the Chinese fishing boat for 10 days.

In reaction to and protest of the court ruling, the Chinese announced a postponement of a second round of negotiation over disputed island territories. Lest the Japanese miss the point, the Chinese statement described the postponement as a "grave protest."

Comments from KGS NightWatch: Japan and South Korea require little encouragement in standing up to China on territorial or other disputes. In part, this is because they see China's export dependent modern sector as a competitor with their own export-driven economies. Neither Japan nor South Korea is inclined to accommodate China or accept it as a regional leader.


An epochal strategic shift continues to evolve in which Asian States are not only taking responsibility for the security of Asia, they are shaping the nature of the strategic relationships. Japan and South Korea will not roll over for China the way North Korea is doing,with or without US assistance.

South Korea-US: A US Defense Department spokesman announced today, 10 September, that the aircraft carrier USS George Washington will participate with South Korea in war games in international waters of the Yellow Sea off the Korean Peninsula. The US spokesman said the deployment is not aimed at challenging China, but is a warning to North Korea.

Comments from KGS NightWatch: After much hemming and hawing, the US appears to have made a decision in favor of strategic dominance and in favor of US Allies in Asia. Apparently thanks for the extra time to think straight goes to the intervention of a typhoon. The typhoon delayed Allied anti-submarine warfare training in the Yellow Sea and gave the US leadership time to make a decision in favor of American allies and interests.

China-Taiwan: Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) will conduct a maritime rescue drill the week of 13 September with China's Maritime Search and Rescue Center, Taiwanese Central News Agency reported 10 September. The drill will be held in waters off southeastern China, between Taiwan's Kinmen Island and Xiamen, China.

Taiwan's CGA will send nine patrol boats, including a 500-ton patrol vessel, and helicopters to Kinmen. All participating ships and rescue teams will carry flags that symbolize the joint drill, CGA officials said, in an attempt to avoid territorial disputes.

Comments from KGS NightWatch: The drill will be the first time the two coastal patrol agencies will have held joint exercises.

Burma (Myanmar)-China: The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has begun construction of China-Myanmar oil and natural gas pipelines, according to Chinese media. The announcement coincided with a ground-breaking ceremony for a 200,000 barrel-per-day oil refinery in Anning city, Yunnan Province, China.

According to the CNPC statement, the company wants to complete the China section of the pipelines, as well as the refinery, by 2013. The oil pipeline, which will have a capacity of 440,000 barrels per day, will wind 771 kilometers (479 miles) through Myanmar, then stretch 1,631 kilometers though China before ending in Chongqing.

The natural gas pipeline will have a 12 billion cubic meter capacity, and will span 793 kilometers in Myanmar and 1,727 kilometers in China before ending in Guangxi region. The company did not disclose whether or when all three projects would receive final approval from China's National Development and Reform Commission, the body in charge of economic planning and pricing.

Comments from KGS NightWatch: The significance of this information plus other recent reports about China building a railroad through Burma is that they reinforce the assessment that Chinese leaders see Burma as a gateway for channeling natural resources to China.


This symbolizes the next step in China's economic imperialism by creating a network of vertical and horizontal monopolies on a global scale that gather and ship back to China the resources from concessions in Third World countries that the Chinese already have secured.


By using Chinese-made Burmese ports and infrastructure, natural resources from Africa and the Middle East can reach hubs in southern China and avoid the hazards of transiting the Straits of Malacca and Singapore and the South China Sea.

Regional Update for September 9

A Foreign Ministry source said Beijing has deployed a "law enforcement ship" to the region in the East China Sea where a Chinese trawler collided with two Japanese coast guard vessels.


The action is an effort to protect Chinese fishermen, the Ministry said.

A ministry spokeswoman called Tokyo's intentions to apply Japanese domestic law to the case of the Chinese trawler that rammed a Japanese coast guard ship absurd and illegal. The spokeswoman suggested the case could have a serious impact on bilateral relations.

A Japanese coast guard spokeswoman said an inspection of the trawler has begun, as well as an interrogation of the 14 fishermen who were on board. The fishing boat is docked off Ishigaki Island in Okinawa prefecture.

Comments from KGS NightWatch: Japanese commentaries about the event conclude the Chinese trawler deliberately rammed the Coast Guard ships so as to create an incident. The Chinese reaction seems to reinforce that Japanese conclusion rather than refute it, as might have been expected from an emerging regional leader, as the Chinese describe their nation.


The Chinese have responded with increased law enforcement capabilities instead of a statesmanlike appeal to maintain regional stability. The stationing of one or more law enforcement ships in a disputed maritime region of East Asia matches one of several Chinese tactics for asserting China's claims to the South China Sea up to the limits of the territorial seas of Southeast Asian states.

Regional Update for September 7

China-Burma (Myanmar): China hailed Myanmar as a "friendly neighbor" and warned the world not to meddle in its upcoming election. General Than Shwe, the head of Burma's military junta, arrived in Beijing for a state visit with President Hu Jintao. Than Shwe's visit will last four days during which he will meet all the top officials.


Comments by KGS NightWatch: Today's praise plus warning expose the fundamental difference between the Chinese communist ideas of democracy and those of the West, even taking into account the imperfect nature of Western voting practices. The fact of a vote is important in authoritarian Asian states; they approve of the legitimacy that voting lends authoritarian rule. The idea the outcome might be determined by the electorate, however, is alien to this political philosophy.


Thus the Chinese could with a straight face endorse the already ham-fistedly contrived Burmese elections - what do Burmese generals know about democracy?


In a strategic sense, the Burmese leaders are engaged in a dangerous policing balancing act to retain some freedom of action between India and China. Than Shwe's visit indicates the Burmese junta prefers to tilt towards China more than India.

China-India: Yesterday, 6 September Indian Prime Minister Singh told New Delhi newspaper editors that, ""China would like to have a foothold in South Asia, and we have to reflect on this reality." India had to be aware of this, and also of a "new assertiveness among the Chinese - and it was difficult to tell which way it will go."

Today, 7 September, in an effort to downplay Prime Minister Singh's remarks, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Jiang Yu said China is committed to safeguarding peace and stability in Asia, including South Asia. Jiang said China is one of the important members of Asia, and that seeking common development with it, South Asia and other countries is in the common interest of "all of us."

Comments from KGS NightWatch: Several features of the exchange are worth noting. First the Indians are aware of and are monitoring Chinese inroads in the Indian Ocean region, which they claim as their sphere of influence. Second, the Indians describe this as new assertiveness, a term not yet recognized in Western commentaries. Third, the Chinese attempt to assuage Indian concerns is actually a deliberate challenge in which China claims interests in al South Asia, as well as East Asia.

China-Iran: China's Railways Minister Liu Zhijun will visit Tehran on 12 September to sign a contract between Iran and a Chinese company to build a $2 billion rail link to Iran, according to Iranian Transport Minister Hamid Behbahani. Transport ministers from Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Iran are expected to gather in Dushanbe in October to firm up the deal for a 2,000-kilometer (1,200-mile) route that links China and Iran.

Comments for KGS NightWatch: For more than a decade Chinese leaders have talked about linking Chinese rails with systems in Central Asia at meetings of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Within the past five years, the Chinese have backed their talk with investment.


China has railroad projects in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Burma and now Iran. It has road and pipeline projects in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.


Many of the projects are scheduled to be completed by 2012. Their cumulative effect would be to shift the economic focus of Central Asian states from Moscow to Beijing. The advantage China brings is that the Chinese rails would use standard gauge, making it possible to ship from the Pacific Coast of China to Turkey without changing bogeys or moving containers in order to accommodate different rail gauges.


Until the Chinese projects become operational, all rail traffic from Asia to Europe will continue to rely on Russian gauge railroads and multiple gauge changes in Asia and at the border of European states.

Afghanistan: NATO and Afghan forces hope to clear the Taliban out of Kandahar by the end of November, according to a statement by the commander of international forces in the south of Afghanistan. NATO forces have secured Kandahar city and are now targeting the surrounding districts of Arghandab, Zharai and Panjwai. British Major General Nick Carter said that 15,000 to 17,000 Afghan security forces and 15,000 international troops have numerical superiority over an estimated 1,000 Taliban insurgents in and around the city.

Comments by KGS NightWatch: The only significance of this report it that it is the first open source estimate of the number of Taliban in Kandahar. The force ratio of 30 allied troops for each Taliban continues to favor the Taliban.

China and North Korea agrees to Open a New Container Shipping Route

* Article from Asahi Shimbun *

N. Korea, China eye shipping route
By Daisuke Nishimura
September 6, 2010 (Japan Standard Time)

China and North Korea have agreed to open a container shipping route from the North's Rason special economic zone, sources close to the Hunchun-based shipping company involved in the deal said. Hunchun is on China's border with Russia and North Korea.

The agreement was reached during the Northeast Asia Investment and Trade Expo, which runs until Monday in Changchun, China.

The new route, which starts at Rajin in North Korea, is expected to open by the end of December at the earliest, the sources said.

It is expected to handle about 300,000 tons of cargo annually, they said.

The envisioned route will link Rajin with foreign ports, such as Busan, but will be limited at its startup. It will begin shipping products into China from Europe and the United States via China's Qingdao.

Cooperation between China and North Korea has accelerated in the northeast amid heavy international sanctions levied against North Korea after the sinking of a South Korean warship in March.

In the Tumenjiang river area, other projects are also under way, including repairs to a cross-border bridge in Hunchun.

A private company based in Dalian, Liaoning province, is working to develop a pier at Rajin port. And sources said a company in Jilin province has acquired the right to use a pier at North Korea's Chongjin port, to the south of Rajin.

In a forum at the trade expo, North Korea's vice trade minister expressed hope that his country could make Rason into "a base for world-class processing trade and intermediate trade."

Meanwhile, China's inland Jilin province aims to secure sea routes to the Sea of Japan via North Korea's Rajin and Chongjin ports.

The Chinese government last year designated the Tumenjiang river area, which includes the Yanbian autonomous prefecture, Jilin and Changchun, as a pilot development zone.

Regional Update for September 3

South Korea-US: Update. US Forces Korea today confirmed that South Korea and the United States will hold anti-submarine warfare exercises from 5 to 9 September in the Yellow Sea. The statement said the exercises will send a message of deterrence to North Korea, while improving Allied anti-submarine warfare capabilities. Ten ships will participate including the two U.S. guided-missile destroyers, USS Curtis Wilbur and USS Fitzgerald, and a fast-attack U.S. submarine.


South Korea's Joint Staff announced the South will contribute four destroyers, a submarine, high-speed frigates and P-3C aircraft to practice techniques to cope with infiltration by enemy submarines.

Comment: As of 3 September, neither China nor North Korea has commented in response.

India- South Korea: In Seoul, today, Indian Defence Minister Antony and South Korean National Defense Minister Kim approved two memoranda of understanding that will strengthen force cooperation and defense industrial collaboration under the India-South Korea Defence Agreement.

The first memorandum of understanding (MoU) covers sharing of military expertise; exchanges of visits by military personnel and experts in defense services; education and training, and conduct of military exercises, as well as joint visits by ships and aircraft. It also includes cooperation in humanitarian assistance and international peacekeeping.

The second MoU is far reaching, aimed at identifying futuristic defense technology research and development for co-development and co-production of defense products.

Defence Minister Antony remarked that "We live in a troubled neighborhood. Some call it a fragile region. We have to maintain balance and restraint even in the face of grave challenges to our security."

Comment from KGS NightWatch: This was a high powered delegation that included senior officers from the armed services and from the defense research establishment. The Indians came to create an architecture for doing business and their timing could not have been better.


Serendipitously, the Indian delegation is in Seoul coincident with a powerful Chinese military region commander's visit to Pyongyang as a follow-up to Kim Jong-il's secretive China visit. The Indian visit also almost coincides with the start of the US-South Korean naval exercises in the Yellow Sea.

India-China: India conveyed its concerns to China on 3 September about an increase in the Chinese troop presence and activities in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Embassy officials said Indian Ambassador to China S. Jaishankar met China's Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Zhang Zhijun in Beijing to discuss India's concerns.

India news papers quoted government sources that 11,000 Chinese have been detected in the Pakistan-controlled section of western Kashmir

In response to the Indian demarche, the Chinese said the soldiers were assisting with flood relief without further explanation.

Comments from KGS NightWatch: The Indian press indicates China stonewalled India on this and several other issues, especially those related to Kashmir. While not confirmed, the size of the Chinese contingent equals that of an infantry division. The location could be east of Islamabad … if confirmed. Earlier press reports indicated the Chinese troops were providing security for railroad construction, but the Chinese did not confirm those reports.


China appears to be dropping the nuances in its policy actions of the past ten years as to disputed regions of Asia. In doing so, it is siding openly and unequivocally with longstanding allies. This explains China's open embrace of Kim Jong-il, which matches its equally open tilt to Pakistan on the issue of Kashmir.


China is asserting itself as the Asian hegemon from Northeast Asia, through Southeast Asia to Southwest Asia. This is a strategic challenge to the interests of the US, its allies and friends.

Pakistan: Pakistani Taliban again claimed responsibility for killing at least 43 people and injuring 78 others in a suicide blast at a Shiite procession in Quetta, Pakistan, according to police chief Ghulam Shabir Sheikh. The occasion of the march is al Quds Day, which is an annual protest in solidarity with the Palestinians and to condemn Israel. Al Quds is the Muslim name for the city Jerusalem.

Comments from KGS NightWatch: Pakistani Sunni terrorists evidently will not tolerate Pakistani Shiites protesting in support of Sunni causes, namely, the Palestinians. The plight of the Palestinians has no relevance to the goals of the Pakistani Taliban which include creation of a Pakistani Islamic emirate based in Islamabad.

Regional Update for September 1

Japan-China-North Korea: Update. Japan rejected North Korea's apparent interest in a quick resumption of six-party talks on Pyongyang's nuclear program, saying Tuesday that the time was not right for fresh discussions.

In a meeting Tuesday, 31 August, with China's nuclear envoy, Wu Dawei, Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada said conditions for talks were not right.

"As South Korea is dealing with the sinking of its warship, it is still too early to resume the six-party talks," Okada was quoted as telling Wu, according to a statement from the ministry.

Comments from KGS NightWatch: Japan's stand with South Korea to hold North Korea accountable for the sinking of the Cheonan contrasts sharply with the US and China movement to resume talks quickly, regardless of the North's act of war in sinking the patrol ship. Japan appears to be supporting South Korea whose leaders also think the time is not appropriate for nuclear talks.

Some Western commentators and officials have raised unrealistic expectations about the likelihood of nuclear talks. North Korea is preparing for the 3rd Party Conference, not talks. Kim's language about talks is not in the published remarks during his China visit.

The point is the North's pool of skilled managers is too small to manage simultaneously a Party Conference and nuclear talks probably through mid-September. The Party Conference is far more important to them than nuclear talks.

The Chinese appear to be the only source of the statements attributed to Kim that he wanted an early resumption of talks. They appear to have been crafted to placate the US while North Korea tends to succession business.

North Korea-China: Leaders from North Korea and China said the countries' military relations would be strengthened, Xinhua reported on 1 September. President of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly Kim Yong-nam met a delegation from the Shenyang Military Region in northeastern China at the Mansudae Assembly Hall to discuss military issues today.

Lieutenant General Zhang Youxia, head of the Chinese delegation and Commander of the Shenyang Military Region which abuts North Korea, said the China-North Korean relationship will be consolidated. He also said the Shenyang Military Region will make active efforts to further develop bilateral military exchanges and cooperation.

Comments from KGS NightWatch: The anomaly in the public announcement is that a Chinese military region commander was received by the official President of North Korea, not the Chief of the General Staff or any of the North Korean corps commanders opposite Shenyang Military Region.

General Zhang's visit is not likely a coincidence, occurring two days after Kim Chong-il visited General Zhang's military region. The visit looks like a follow-up to Kim's for the purpose of implementing agreements reached in China, such as coordination of military plans in the event of a crisis in Pyongyang. As a region commander, Zhang's involvement signifies operational and tactical details were discussed … details of execution rather than formulation of strategy.

China has a friendship treaty with North Korea which most old hands suspect includes a provision for Chinese forces to enter North Korea to preserve the communist regime during an emergency. Zhang's visit suggests he, as the responsible theater commander, is inspecting a likely future area of operations.
Introduction of Chinese forces for any purpose, even to save the Kim family regime, would require extensive operational and tactical coordination, establishment of deconfliction procedures and many other forms of cooperation with some of the most powerful North Korean army units, which guard the highway from China to Pyongyang.

China: The Chinese news agency reported China launched routine, annual naval training exercises in the Yellow Sea on 1 September. The Beihai fleet of the navy of the People's Liberation Army is to perform live ammunition firing training in waters off the east coast near Qingdao through the 4th.

Comments from KGS NightWatch: The Chinese live firing practice will not affect in any way the Allied anti-submarine exercises on the other side of the Yellow Sea near North Korea.

From Our Friends at KSG NightWatch: For the Night of 30 August

* Contents below are entirely from our friends at KGS NightWatch:

Comments from KGS NightWatch: On 30 August, Chinese and North Korean media confirmed Kim's visit to China and carried limited details about it. As is the custom, the communist media confirmed the visit only after Kim was back safely in Pyongyang.

In a dinner speech for Chinese President Hu, Kim described his visit in terms of a pilgrimage that his late father, President Forever Kim Il Sung, always intended to make but never did. Kim said, in part, "Permeated in Jilin and Heilongjiang Provinces (of China) are immortal footprints of the bloody anti-Japanese revolutionary struggle President Comrade Kim Il Sung waged with Chinese comrades from early on. As such, they are unforgettable lands of history which are cherished dearly in the hearts of our people; they are also witnesses of the North Korea-China friendship.

"When he was alive, President Comrade Kim Il Sung would never forget this eventful Northeastern region and, reminiscing on it, would say that he would be back here for sure. We have come today, embracing his wish.

The other distinctive feature of the North Korean media description of the visit is the use of communist cult language to explain every Chinese accomplishment. Everything Kim observed and all his interactions were described as the result of communist and socialist wisdom and planning. Kim repeatedly paid tribute to Chinese communism, as if to applaud the Chinese for swindling the successful modern systems in the world. He ignored that China began to progress by abandoning communist economics where it could and by copying capitalist , free market enterprise.

The international media described the visit as rich in policy implications, highlighting Kim's so-called desire for an early resumption of nuclear talks. Actually, Kim's public statements indicate he said there was no change in the North's desire for early nuclear talks. "No change" means the North continues to condition talks on acceptance of the North as a nuclear armed power.

As for other issues, the pervasive theme in the press statements is easing of tension. The North is not at all interested in talks soon. All in all, the visit looks like a Confucian farewell, performing last rites for unfinished family business. - KGS NightWatch

From Our Friends at KSG NightWatch: For the Night of 29 August

* Contents below are entirely from our friends at KSG NightWatch:

North Korea-China: North Korean Leader Kim Jong-il remained in northeast China on 29 August visiting the city of Harbin. Initial news reports asserted Kim's train was bound for Pyongyang. Instead, The train left Changchun, the capital of Jilin Province, which borders North Korea, the evening of the 28th and went south to Harbin to visit a plant.

The Japanese media reported hotel closures and tightened security at the Dandong border crossing site, the usual signs that North Korean leadership train's arrival is expected.

Comment: The proximity of this visit to the Party general meeting in early September is the basis for the inference that Kim's visit is related to the process of introducing his third son to the Chinese leadership and showing him around and off.

The visit appears too short to have moved other outstanding issues, including flood relief along the Yalu and the Six Party Talks. The brevity and location of the visit to Chinese areas near North Korea support those analyses that the visit also served the strategic goal of quieting the international environment before and during the Party plenum.

One commentary assessed that also was the primary aim in the North's handling in such low key fashion former President Carter's visit to obtain the release of the captive American. Aside from Six Party talks, there are now no potentially disruptive issues between the US and North Korea, such as an American in a North Korean jail.

The trip to China during the Carter visit also conveys a clear statement of North Korean foreign policy priorities. China is more important than the US.

These assessments imply that for the next two weeks, tension should ease and provocations are unlikely. However, the North may be expected to respond in prickly fashion to any actions by the US or South Korea that it perceives as a provocation, just to show that its inward focus does not signify weakness or inability to respond swiftly. China will be in overwatch position. The message from North Korea is, "leave us alone." - KGS NightWatch

Comment from the Author: Xinhua News Agency's English site posted a report on the Chinese president Hu Jintao's meeting with Kim Jong-il on Friday, 27 August, at 7:19 PM on 30 August, Beijing Time - which would make it 7:19AM on 30 August, Eastern Time.

China-Burma (Myanmar): Xinhua News Agency (the official news agency for the PRC) reported two Chinese navy ships from the 5th Escort Task Group, the Caohu and Guanhzhou, called at Myanmar's Thilawa Port on 29 August. The visit is to last five days to promote "good" relations.

Comment: This is the first time Chinese naval ships have called at a port in Burma. It also is a direct challenge to Indian naval dominance of the Indian Ocean region. - KGS NightWatch

The Greater Tumen Area Economic Project on the Move

It seems China and North Korea has moved forward on one of their economic venture. Japan's Kyodo World Service reported today China has completed the repair of the bridge in Hunchun at the Sino-North Korean border over the Tuman River, giving China a safer access to North Korea to reach Rajin Port. The report also says the Chinese government has approved a plan to transport coal and other items produced in Jilin, China, to Shanghai via Rajin, North Korea, in April this year.

Despite the Cheonan incident and continued North Korean temper tantrums, it appears the Sino-North Korean Tumen area project continues to roll.

Here's the entire Kyodo World Service report:

Yanji, China - China has repaired a bridge in Hunchun at the Chinese and North Korean border, giving it a safer access to North Korea for use of Rajin port to ship coal to Shanghai, according to Jilin Province officials.

China paid 3.6 million yuan ($528,526) to repair the bridge over the TUmen River, a project jointly pursued with North Korea, the officials said Tuesday.

Work was completed June 14.

The bridge serves as a gateway to Pier No. 1 at Rajin port, which a Chinese company has obtained the right to use for 10 years.

In April, the Chinese government approved a plan to transport coal and other items produced in Jilin to Shanghai via Rajin in northeastern North Korea.

China and North Korea have been in talks about financing of a plan to build a 50-kilometer road leading to the port, the officials said.

A South Korean Computer Security Firm expects Another Round of DDoS Attacks Today

(From Financial News in Korean; By Hong Suk-Hui; Translation by 'Straight and Stalwart')
Possible China-Originated DDoS Attack on June 16 Detected(Click here for the original Korean reporting)

Following the two recent Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks that originated from China, it has been detected that there will be another round of DDoS attack on the 16th.

ESTsoft, a computer security firm, stated on the 14th that it has detected some movements for a third DDoS attack to commence on the 16th. The upcoming DDoS attack is being planned by the same group of Chinese netizens that twice earlier attempted DDoS attacks on the South Korean government portal sites, some governmental agencies sites, and sites related to a boy band Super Junior, ESTsoft added.

ESTsoft does not expect the upcoming DDoS attack to have a large-scale damage; however, because the number of IP that was used in the recent DDoS attack is on the rise, it warrants caution.

What sets the upcoming DDoS, which is being called "the Holy War" among the Chinese netizens, apart from other typical DDoS is that this DDoS is being conducted manually - the organizers of the attack are actively recruiting for participants and distributing specific software designed to attack a designated website.

ESTsoft said, "The first and second attacks, which occurred on the 9th and the 11th, respectively, were not very effective, and the third attack will most likely be similar in form to previous attacks." "The number of IP used in the second attack was over double of that used during the first attack; therefore, it needs to be watched closely," it added.

Sino-US Military Tensions on Full Display

(From South China Morning Post; by Greg Torode, Chief Asia correspondent in Singapore)

Sino-US military tensions broke out into the open at a security conference in Singapore yesterday, as a senior PLA strategist directly challenged US Defence Secretary Dr Robert Gates over the freeze in ties.

The rare exchange saw Major General Zhu Chenghu warn that "you, the Americans, are taking China as the enemy" in response to a strong speech from Gates defending arms sales to Taiwan and blaming Beijing for the breakdown in military relations. Gates insisted he wanted co-operation with China and did not view it as an enemy.

The exchange was part of a series of statements to the informal Shangri-La Dialogue that crystallised many of the issues clouding ties. While both sides spoke of a yearning for a deep and comprehensive military relationship, differences were also sharply described.

The lead PLA delegate, General Ma Xiaotian, for example, said arms sales and US surveillance operations in the South and East China Seas were obstacles to the resumption of exchanges. Gates' address made clear that Washington was not about to budge on such issues, and expressed deepening US concerns over the South China Sea.

The exchange across a conference room crowded with regional government and military officials and academics ended in a brief handshake between Gates and Ma. It represented the only conversation between the two countries this weekend when hopes for a formal meeting were scuppered by China's decision to scrap a visit by Gates to Beijing after the conference.

Beijing halted military exchanges following a fresh package of US$6.4 billion worth of arms to Taiwan in February - the first under the administration of President Barack Obama - and a White House visit by the Dalai Lama soon after.

Gates said such sales were based on "well-established precedent and ... longstanding [US] belief that a peaceful and non-coerced resolution to the Taiwan issue is an abiding national interest - and vital for the overall security of Asia". "Taiwan arms sales over the decades have not impeded closer political and economic ties. Only in the military-to-military arena has progress on critical mutual security issues been held hostage over something that is, quite frankly, old news."

Describing Beijing's break-off of ties as "making little sense", he said the US remained committed to agreements between Obama and President Hu Jintao to advance sustained and reliable military relations. "The key words here are `sustained and reliable' - not a relationship repeatedly interrupted by ... the vagaries of political weather."

Zhu, director general of the department of strategic studies at the National Defence University, said it was not fair to blame the PLA or Beijing for the breakdown.

"I believe that this sort of arms sale sends to the Chinese the wrong signal ... that is Chinese are taking the Americans as partners and as friends and you the Americans are taking the Chinese as the enemy."

Most Chinese people believed the "sole purpose" of the arms sales was to prevent the reunification of China, he said.

Ma, deputy chief of the PLA General Staff, warned that military relations were "trapped in a cycle of ... suspension and development". "Both sides hope through joint efforts we can break this cycle. Unfortunately efforts have not worked so far ... It takes two to tango."

He also reiterated concerns about cold war-era alliances and called for more equal, trusting relationships across the region - another crack at Washington's traditional approach.
The sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan by a North Korean torpedo also sparked debate.

Gates said the region shared the task of tackling "dangerous provocations", warning that inaction would represent a failure to protect peace and stability. Beijing has to yet detail its response. Zhu questioned the differences between the US response to the sinking and its caution over the fatal boarding by Israel of a Gaza-bound aid ship last week.

In 2005, Zhu said China would use nuclear weapons against the US if Washington intervened militarily in a conflict between Beijing and Taipei.

Greater Tumen Area Economic Development Project: A Background

Many in Northeast Asia wish to see the Tumen Basin develop into a place for economic cooperation and competition. One such plan is the Greater Tumen Initiative (GTI), formerly known as Tumen River Area Development Project (TRADP), being carried out under the auspices of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The 20-year 80 billion USD plan calls for the creation of port facilities and transportation infrastructure in the region to support a multinational trading hub. Countries participating in the GTI are China, Mongolia, North Korea, Russia and South Korea.

The goal of GTI is to make the area into a free economic zone for trade to prosper and attract investment into the area. For China, the project would give traders in Northeast China easier access to major international ports without having to circumnavigate the Korean Peninsula and thus stimulating growth in China’s northeast rustbelt. For Russia, the project would give the ability to better exploit resources in Siberia and allow easier access to North Korea’s resource-rich hinterland; the area just to the south of the Tumen contains reserves of oil, minerals, coal, timber, and abundant farmland.

Development of the Tumen River area and North Korea’s participation in this project means inflow of hard foreign currency, improvements in infrastructure, and possible increase in industrial capacity. North Korea, with its bleak economy, therefore, will most likely continue to support the development of Tumen River area and increase its future involvement in the project as it seeks to break the economic isolation and hardship it has suffered since the collapse of most of its communist allies and the implementation of international sanctions.

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Treaty of Friendship, Co-operation and Mutual Assistance Between the People's Republic of China and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

Source: Peking Review, Vol. 4, No. 28, p.5.
Transcribed/HTML: Max, B. and Mike B.

====================================================================

July 11, 1967

THE Chairman of the People's Republic of China and the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, determined, in accordance with Marxism-Leninism and the principle of proletarian internationalism and on the basis of mutual respect for state sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in each other's internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and mutual assistance and support, to make every effort to further strengthen and develop the fraternal relations of friendship, co-operation and mutual assistance between the People's Republic of China and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, to jointly guard the security of the two peoples, and to safeguard and consolidate the peace of Asia and the world, and deeply convinced that the development and strengthening of the relations of friendship, co-operation and mutual assistance between the two countries accord not only with the fundamental interests of the two peoples but also with the interests of the peoples all over the world, have decided for this purpose to conclude the present Treaty and appointed as their respective plenipotentiaries:

　　　The Chairman of the People's Republic of China: Chou En-lai, Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China.

　　　The Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea: Kim Il Sung, Premier of the Cabinet of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea,

Who, having examined each other's full powers and found them in good and due form, have agreed upon the the following:

Article I

The Contracting Parties will continue to make every effort to safeguard the peace of Asia and the world and the security of all peoples.

Article II

The Contracting Parties undertake jointly to adopt all measures to prevent aggression against either of the Contracting Parties by any state. In the event of one of the Contracting Parties being subjected to the armed attack by any state or several states jointly and thus being involved in a state of war, the other Contracting Party shall immediately render military and other assistance by all means at its disposal.

Article III

Neither Contracting Party shall conclude any alliance directed against the other Contracting Party or take part in any bloc or in any action or measure directed against the other Contracting Party .

Article IV

The Contracting Parties will continue to consult with each other on all important international questions of common interest to the two countries.

Article V

The Contracting Parties, on the principles of mutual respect for sovereignty, non-interference in each other's internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit and in the spirit of friendly co-operation, will continue to render each other every possible economic and technical aid in the cause of socialist construction of the two countries and will continue to consolidate and develop economic, cultural, and scientific and technical co-operation between the two countries.

Article VI

The Contracting Parties hold that the unification of Korea must be realized along peaceful and democratic lines and that such a solution accords exactly with the national interests of the Korean people and the aim of preserving peace in the Far East.

Article VII

The present Treaty is subject to ratification and shall come into force on the day of exchange of instruments of ratification, which will take place in Pyongyang. The present Treaty will remain in force until the Contracting Parties agree on its amendment or termination. Done in duplicate in Peking on the eleventh day of July, nineteen sixty-one, in the Chinese and Korean languages, both texts being equally authentic.

(Signed)

CHOU EN-LAI

Plenipotentiary of the

People's Republic of China

(Signed)

KIM IL SUNG

Plenipotentiary of the

Democratic People's Republic of Korea